Colombia Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

Why you should buy this report

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
×

Sign up to download the Colombia Oil & Gas Report

By submitting this form you are acknowledging that you have read and understood our Privacy Policy.

Thank you for your interest

You will shortly receive your free executive summary by email.

Colombia Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View : Our outlook for Colombia's oil and gas sector remains downbeat as lower oil prices are weighing on the development of upstream and downstream projects by national and international investors. As such, further expansion of the sector will become increasingly dependent on state-owned Ecopetrol. While the recent government ' s peace deal with FARC rebels should improve the operating environment, we note the continued risk of attacks on oil and gas infrastructure due to the presence of other guerrilla groups.

Headline Forecasts (Colombia 2014-2020)
2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 1,009.8 1,026.5 945.6 909.3 878.9 858.1 844.2
Refined products production, 000b/d 343.2 346.1 383.9 395.6 400.2 405.0 409.9
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 354.9 362.3 369.6 378.4 388.2 399.7 412.6
Dry natural gas production, bcm 9.6 9.8 9.4 9.2 8.9 8.7 8.5
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 8.3 8.8 9.1 9.5 9.7 10.0 10.2
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 46.50 57.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

  • In August 2016, Colombia's national oil company Ecopetrol said it will intensify exploration activities in the country and plans to drill 80 new wells until the end of 2016 on top of 25 wells which have been drilled already in 2016. Most of the new wells will be located in Rubiales and Castilla fields.

  • International oil companies in Colombia are continuing to face strong opposition against unconventional oil and gas exploration using fracking. In August 2016, the media reported about another large protest in Valparaiso.

  • According to the country's Mines and Energy Ministry, the production levels declined to 888,000b/d in June 2016, marking a 12% year-on-year decline.

  • This quarter we have further downgraded our 2016 production forecast due to persisting attacks on the country's mid-stream infrastructure. We now project crude oil and condensates output to decrease by 8.1% to 924,510b/d. Other liquids are forecast to add another 27,410b/d to that figure.

  • We have slightly lowered our forecasts for Colombia's gas production as the country's national oil company is focusing primarily on the oil sector, while the private investment into the gas sector is declining. We now expect gas output to decline by 4.0% year-on-year to 9.4bcm in 2016. By 2025, we expect the country's gas output to fall to 8.6bcm.

  • Earlier in 2016, Ecopetrol has indefinitely postponed its plans to modernize Barrancabermeja refinery due to low oil prices. As a result, we have downgraded our forecasts for Colombia's refined products output, which we see increasing by an annual average rate of 2.0% during 2016-2025.

  • As of July 2016, the Reficar facility was working at its full capacity, following an upgrade. This puts the country's nameplate refining capacity at 420,850b/d.

  • Flagging oil production and increased domestic demand, as a result of upgrades at the Reficar facility, will push Colombia's crude oil exports lower over the next seven years, reaching a nadir of 417,90b/d in 2022. We project the exports to recover slightly to 435,890b/d by the end of our forecast period in 2025.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Colombia 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Latest Updates
11
Structural Trends
11
Upstream Projects
16
Table: Colombia - Key Upstream Projects
16
Upstream Production - Oil
22
Latest Updates
22
Structural Trends
22
Table: Oil Production (Colombia 2014-2019)
29
Table: Oil Production (Colombia 2020-2025)
29
Upstream Production - Gas
30
Latest Updates
30
Structural Trends
30
Table: Gas Production (Colombia 2014-2019)
33
Table: Gas Production (Colombia 2020-2025)
34
Refining
34
Latest Updates
34
Structural Trends
34
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Colombia 2014-2019)
37
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Colombia 2020-2025)
37
Refined Fuels Consumption
38
Latest Updates
38
Structural Trends
38
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Colombia 2014-2019)
40
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Colombia 2020-2025)
40
Gas Consumption
41
Latest Updates
41
Structural Trends
41
Table: Gas Consumption (Colombia 2014-2019)
43
Table: Gas Consumption (Colombia 2020-2025)
43
Trade - Oil
44
Crude Oil
44
Latest Updates
44
Structural Trends
44
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Colombia 2014-2020)
46
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Colombia 2020-2025)
46
Refined Products
46
Latest Updates
46
Structural Trends
46
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Colombia 2014-2019)
48
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Colombia 2020-2025)
48
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
48
Latest Updates
48
Structural Trends:
48
Table: Gas Net Exports (Colombia 2014-2019)
52
Table: Gas Net Exports (Colombia 2020-2025)
52
Industry Risk Reward Index
53
Latin America - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
53
Table: Latin America - Composite Risk/Reward Index
53
Composite RRI: Sector Shifts Continue To Take Shape
54
Upstream: Few Shifts, But Changes Loom
55
Table: Latin America - Upstream Risk/Reward Index
56
Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
58
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index
60
Colombia Risk/Reward Index
61
Colombia Upstream Index - Overview
61
Colombia Upstream Index - Rewards
61
Colombia Upstream Index - Risks
62
Colombia Downstream Index - Overview
62
Market Overview
64
Colombia Energy Market Overview
64
Overview/State Role
64
Licensing And Regulation
65
Table: Royalty Rates
66
International Energy Relations
69
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
71
Refineries
71
Table: Refineries In Colombia
71
Service Stations
73
Oil Terminals/Ports
73
Oil Pipelines
73
LNG Terminals
77
Gas Pipelines
78
Competitive Landscape
79
Competitive Landscape Summary
79
Table: Key Players - Colombian Oil & Gas Sector
80
Company Profile
81
Chevron
81
Empresa Colombiana de Petr-leos (Ecopetrol)
85
ExxonMobil Colombia
93
Occidental
96
Pacific Exploration & Production
100
Perenco
104
Sinochem
106
Other Summaries
109
Regional Overview
119
Latin America Overview
119
Table: Latin America Oil And Gas Production, Refining Capacity And Trade, 2013-2024
128
Glossary
130
Table: Glossary Of Terms
130
Methodology
132
Industry Forecast Methodology
132
Source
134
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
134
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
136
Table: Weighting
137

The Colombia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Colombia including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Colombia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Colombian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Colombia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Colombian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Colombian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Colombia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.