Colombia Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Colombia Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View : We maintain a downbeat outlook for Colombia's oil and gas sector as sustained oil price weakness weigh s on development prospects, particularly in the upstream . Private invest ment will be limited as international firms strengthen their core assets elsewhere . F urther expansion of the sector will therefore become increasingly dependent on cash-strapped state-owned Ecopetrol. While the passage of the government ' s second peace deal with FARC rebels will improve the operating environment, we note risk of future attacks on infrastructure as smaller guerrilla groups continue to stake their claims .

Headline Forecasts (Colombia 2014-2020)
2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: ANH, EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 1,009.8 1,026.5 911.4 874.6 851.4 838.0 832.2
Refined products production, 000b/d 338.2 341.3 381.9 394.5 399.5 404.7 410.1
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 362.9 374.6 382.7 393.2 407.4 423.0 439.4
Dry natural gas production, bcm 9.6 9.8 9.4 9.2 8.9 8.7 8.6
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 8.3 8.8 9.1 9.5 9.7 10.0 10.2
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 45.50 55.00 68.00 65.00 67.00

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

  • Having maintained yearly average output at over 1.0mn b/d from 2013 to 2015, production in 2016 fell sharply as operators pulled back spending to mitigate the impacts of muted upstream revenues. Through the first nine months of the year, production declined by an average rate of 10.8% y-o-y, representing a loss of approximately 110,000b/d.

  • The gradual strengthening of crude prices will not revive Colombia's oil sector in 2017. Having suffered sharp declines in the wake of prolonged price weakness, we believe larger private sector participants will turn away from the market in an effort to boost their core assets. This will leave state-run Ecopetrol largely responsible for generating growth, a role it will find challenging to fill given its more modest capex plans.

  • The region's national oil companies (NOCs) will remain focused on improving project economics, particularly with respect to drilling and lifting costs. However, low profitability, weak domestic currencies and elevated debt loads will undermine an increase in spending in 2017. We therefore believe regional capex will fall by an estimated USD3.0bn in 2017, representing a 6.0% decline y-o-y. This supports our downbeat production outlook for Latin America, where we expect total liquids will fall 0.8% y-o-y in 2017, averaging 9.85mn b/d.

  • A new peace deal negotiated by President Juan Manuel Santos' administration and members of the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) in November incorporated enough of opponents' demands to be ratified prior to the end-2016 ceasefire expiration. Following the defeat of the original peace accord in an October referendum, officials sought to re-launch negotiations with input from the political leadership of the 'No' campaign in addition to civil society groups.

  • The start up of Colombia's first liquefied natural gas (LNG) import facility in November underscores the country's gradual shift toward net import status. Having exported supplies to Venezuela via pipeline for nearly a decade, Colombia is now poorly positioned to do on the back of waning domestic supplies and rising consumer demand.

  • It is our expectation that Venezuelan NOC PdVSA will not meet its December 1 target of exporting natural gas to Colombia. The agreement signed on September 28 between PdVSA and Colombia's Petromil Gas involves shipments of 1.42mn cubic metres (mcm) per day sourced from Venezuela's offshore Cardon IV block. Underutilisation of hydropower facilities, a deficit of gas supplies and continued infrastructure deficiencies will prolong Venezuela's inability to realise its export ambitions into 2017.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Colombia 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Latest Updates
11
Structural Trends
11
Upstream Projects
16
Table: Colombia - Key Upstream Projects
16
Upstream Production - Oil
22
Latest Updates
22
Structural Trends
22
Table: Oil Production (Colombia 2014-2019)
29
Table: Oil Production (Colombia 2020-2025)
29
Upstream Production - Gas
30
Latest Updates
30
Structural Trends
30
Table: Gas Production (Colombia 2014-2019)
33
Table: Gas Production (Colombia 2020-2025)
34
Refining
34
Latest Updates
34
Structural Trends
34
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Colombia 2014-2019)
37
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Colombia 2020-2025)
37
Refined Fuels Consumption
38
Latest Updates
38
Structural Trends
38
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Colombia 2014-2019)
40
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Colombia 2020-2025)
40
Gas Consumption
41
Latest Updates
41
Structural Trends
41
Table: Gas Consumption (Colombia 2014-2019)
43
Table: Gas Consumption (Colombia 2020-2025)
43
Trade - Oil
44
Crude Oil
44
Latest Updates
44
Structural Trends
44
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Colombia 2014-2020)
46
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Colombia 2020-2025)
46
Refined Products
46
Latest Updates
46
Structural Trends
46
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Colombia 2014-2019)
48
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Colombia 2020-2025)
48
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
48
Latest Updates
48
Structural Trends:
48
Table: Gas Net Exports (Colombia 2014-2019)
52
Table: Gas Net Exports (Colombia 2020-2025)
52
Industry Risk Reward Index
53
Latin America - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
53
Table: Latin America - Composite Risk/Reward Index
53
Composite RRI: Sector Shifts Continue To Take Shape
54
Upstream: Few Shifts, But Changes Loom
55
Table: Latin America - Upstream Risk/Reward Index
56
Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
58
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index
60
Colombia Risk/Reward Index
61
Colombia Upstream Index - Overview
61
Colombia Upstream Index - Rewards
61
Colombia Upstream Index - Risks
62
Colombia Downstream Index - Overview
62
Market Overview
64
Colombia Energy Market Overview
64
Overview/State Role
64
Licensing And Regulation
65
Table: Royalty Rates
66
International Energy Relations
69
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
71
Refineries
71
Table: Refineries In Colombia
71
Service Stations
73
Oil Terminals/Ports
73
Oil Pipelines
73
LNG Terminals
77
Gas Pipelines
78
Competitive Landscape
79
Competitive Landscape Summary
79
Table: Key Players - Colombian Oil & Gas Sector
80
Company Profile
81
Chevron
81
Empresa Colombiana de Petr-leos (Ecopetrol)
85
ExxonMobil Colombia
93
Occidental
96
Pacific Exploration & Production
100
Perenco
104
Sinochem
106
Other Summaries
109
Regional Overview
119
Latin America Overview
119
Table: Latin America Oil And Gas Production, Refining Capacity And Trade, 2013-2024
128
Glossary
130
Table: Glossary Of Terms
130
Methodology
132
Industry Forecast Methodology
132
Source
134
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
134
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
136
Table: Weighting
137

The Colombia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Colombia including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Colombia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Colombian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Colombia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Colombian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Colombian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Colombia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.