Colombia Oil & Gas Report

Published 18 June 2015

  • 156 pages
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$1,295.00
Colombia Oil & Gas Report

BMI View : Colombia's energy sector has approach ed an inflection point . While the past decade has witnessed strong production growth due to improvements in the business and security environment, we caution that the country will experience downward pressure on oil production over the longer term. The tendency toward smaller finds, as well as recent increases in pipeline attacks have begun to show signs of decreased investor interest in Colombia's resources, as witnessed in the 2014 licensing round s. Furthermore, sustained lower oil prices have threatened the development of upstream and downstream projects by both national and international investors. Given ongoing below and above-ground challenges, we maintain a cautious stance toward the future of Colombia's hydrocarbon productivity.

Headline Forecasts (Colombia 2013-2019)
2013e 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 1,022.0 1,009.7 990.5 971.7 948.6 926.0 908.6
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 347.2 347.2 377.4 389.0 413.2 422.9 433.1
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 347.3 357.7 368.1 379.3 391.0 404.5 419.0
Dry natural gas production, bcm 10.2 10.3 10.2 10.1 9.9 9.8 9.8
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 7.6 8.3 8.8 9.2 9.7 10.1 10.5

The key trends and developments in the Colombian oil and gas sector are:

  • Colombia's attractive fiscal regime, favourable contract terms, and amenable regulatory environment will be unable to secure continued production growth over the next decade. As such, we maintain our downbeat Colombian oil production forecast, as decreased revenues from lower oil prices undermine the ability of producers to maintain output levels. Moreover, the two main oil producers in Colombia, state-owned Ecopetrol and Pacific...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Colombia 2013-2018)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Colombia 2019-2024)
11
Upstream Projects
13
Table: Colombia - Key Upstream Projects
13
Upstream Production - Oil
17
Table: Oil Production (Colombia 2013-2018)
17
Table: Oil Production (Colombia 2019-2024)
17
Upstream Production - Gas
24
Table: Gas Production (Colombia 2013-2018)
24
Table: Gas Production (Colombia 2019-2024)
24
Refining
27
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Colombia 2013-2018)
27
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Colombia 2019-2024)
28
Refined Fuels Consumption
30
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Colombia 2013-2018)
30
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Colombia 2019-2024)
30
Gas Consumption
32
Table: Gas Consumption (Colombia 2013-2018)
32
Table: Gas Consumption (Colombia 2019-2024)
33
Trade - Oil
35
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Colombia 2013-2018)
35
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Colombia 2019-2024)
36
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Colombia 2013-2018)
38
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Colombia 2019-2024)
38
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Colombia 2013-2018)
40
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Colombia 2019-2024)
40
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
41
Table: Gas Net Exports (Colombia 2013-2018)
41
Table: Gas Net Exports (Colombia 2019-2024)
42
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
45
Latin America - Risk/Reward Index
45
Table: Latin America Composite Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
45
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Reforms Prompting A Shake Up
47
Table: Latin America Upstream Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
48
Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
50
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
53
Colombia Risk/Reward Index
53
Colombia Upstream Index - Overview
53
Colombia Upstream Index - Rewards
54
Colombia Upstream Index - Risks
54
Colombia Downstream Index - Overview
55
Market Overview
57
Colombia Energy Market Overview
57
Overview/State Role
57
Licensing And Regulation
58
Table: Royalty Rates
59
International Energy Relations
62
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
63
Refineries
63
Table: Refineries In Colombia
63
Service Stations
65
Oil Terminals/ Ports
65
Oil Pipelines
65
LNG Terminals
69
Gas Pipelines
69
Competitive Landscape
71
Competitive Landscape Summary
71
Table: Key Players - Colombian Oil & Gas Sector
73
Company Profile
74
Empresa Colombiana de Petr-leos (Ecopetrol)
74
Chevron
80
Occidental
83
Perenco/Petrobras Colombia
87
Sinochem
89
Pacific Rubiales Colombia
92
ExxonMobil Colombia
98
Other Summaries
101
Regional Overview
113
Latin America Oil&Gas Regional Overview
113
Global Industry Overview
121
Global Industry Overview - Five Themes For 2015: Oil & Gas
121
Table: LNG Export Terminals At Pre-FID Stage
126
Appendix
128
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
128
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2013-2018
128
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2018-2023
129
Latin America - Regional Appendix
130
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
130
Table: Oil Consumption - Long Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
131
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
132
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
132
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
133
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
134
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
134
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
135
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
135
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
136
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
136
Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
137
Colombia - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-Year Forecasts
138
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Colombia 2013-2018)
138
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Colombia 2019-2024)
138
Colombia - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts
139
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Colombia 2013-2018)
139
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Colombia 2019-2024)
140
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Colombia 2013-2018)
141
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Colombia 2019-2024)
143
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Colombia 2013-2018)
144
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Colombia 2019-2024)
145
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Colombia 2013-2018)
146
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Colombia 2019-2024)
146
Glossary
147
Table: Glossary Of Terms
147
Methodology
149
Industry Forecast Methodology
149
Source
151
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
151
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
153
Table: Weighting
154

The Colombia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Colombia including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Colombia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Colombian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Colombia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Colombian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Colombian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Colombia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc