BMI View : Colombia's energy sector has reached an inflection point. While the past decade saw strong production growth due to improvements in the business and security environment, we caution the country will experience downward pressure on oil and gas production over the next decade. The tendency toward smaller finds, as well as continued pipeline attacks will decrease private investor interest in Colombia's resources. Further, sustained lower oil prices have threatened the development of upstream and downstream projects by national and international investors.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||1,009.8||1,026.5||959.2||912.9||877.9||852.9||832.9|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||343.2||346.1||383.9||410.7||420.5||425.9||431.4|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||354.9||362.3||369.5||378.3||388.1||399.6||412.4|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||9.6||9.8||9.5||9.4||9.0||8.8||8.6|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||8.3||8.8||9.1||9.5||9.7||10.0||10.2|
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
Projects targeting Colombian oil will fail to achieve growth this year due to continued unprofitability in the upstream market. On April 21, the country's Mines and Energy Ministry (Minminas) announced crude production in the country had fallen by 4.0% m-o-m in March to 916,000b/d. This was the sharpest monthly decline since July 2015, when a series of pipeline attacks shuttered supplies.
National oil company (NOC) Ecopetrol, which operates approximately two-thirds of the market, announced further reductions to its capex plan for the year on April 27, from USD4.8bn to a range of USD3.0-3.4bn. Having already planned the sharpest spending declines in the region prior to the announcement, this reduction represents an estimated 60.0% decline in its capex versus 2015 and highlights the unprofitable nature of the NOC's portfolio.
Progress at the bilateral peace talks between the government and the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) insurgent group has brought the number of attacks on pipelines down over the past year, falling from 225 in 2013 to 80 in 2015. However, other armed groups continue to strike key midstream infrastructure including the smaller Ejercito de Liberacion Nacional (ELN) group which attacked the 305km Transandino Pipeline on February 16, the 780km Cano Limon pipeline in March 14 and again on May 18.
The modernised Refineria de Cartagena SA (Reficar) is expected to reach full capacity in June 2016. This will add 85,000 b/d of downstream capacity which will service growing domestic demand over the next several years. As of May 13, 32 of the facility's 34 units had been brought online.
Expanded downstream capacity will increase light crude imports into Colombia. Growing demand for cleaner fuels combined with limited domestic blending supplies will raise import demand, offering a potential market for US exports of lighter grades of crude oil.
The Colombia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Colombia including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Colombia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Colombian oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Colombia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Colombian oil and gas market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Colombian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Colombia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:
- Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
- Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
- Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.
BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook
Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.
The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.