BMI View : Our outlook for Colombia's oil and gas sector remains downbeat as lower oil prices are weighing on the development of upstream and downstream projects by national and international investors. As such, further expansion of the sector will become increasingly dependent on state-owned Ecopetrol. While the recent government ' s peace deal with FARC rebels should improve the operating environment, we note the continued risk of attacks on oil and gas infrastructure due to the presence of other guerrilla groups.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||1,009.8||1,026.5||945.6||909.3||878.9||858.1||844.2|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||343.2||346.1||383.9||395.6||400.2||405.0||409.9|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||354.9||362.3||369.6||378.4||388.2||399.7||412.6|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||9.6||9.8||9.4||9.2||8.9||8.7||8.5|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||8.3||8.8||9.1||9.5||9.7||10.0||10.2|
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
In August 2016, Colombia's national oil company Ecopetrol said it will intensify exploration activities in the country and plans to drill 80 new wells until the end of 2016 on top of 25 wells which have been drilled already in 2016. Most of the new wells will be located in Rubiales and Castilla fields.
International oil companies in Colombia are continuing to face strong opposition against unconventional oil and gas exploration using fracking. In August 2016, the media reported about another large protest in Valparaiso.
According to the country's Mines and Energy Ministry, the production levels declined to 888,000b/d in June 2016, marking a 12% year-on-year decline.
This quarter we have further downgraded our 2016 production forecast due to persisting attacks on the country's mid-stream infrastructure. We now project crude oil and condensates output to decrease by 8.1% to 924,510b/d. Other liquids are forecast to add another 27,410b/d to that figure.
We have slightly lowered our forecasts for Colombia's gas production as the country's national oil company is focusing primarily on the oil sector, while the private investment into the gas sector is declining. We now expect gas output to decline by 4.0% year-on-year to 9.4bcm in 2016. By 2025, we expect the country's gas output to fall to 8.6bcm.
Earlier in 2016, Ecopetrol has indefinitely postponed its plans to modernize Barrancabermeja refinery due to low oil prices. As a result, we have downgraded our forecasts for Colombia's refined products output, which we see increasing by an annual average rate of 2.0% during 2016-2025.
As of July 2016, the Reficar facility was working at its full capacity, following an upgrade. This puts the country's nameplate refining capacity at 420,850b/d.
Flagging oil production and increased domestic demand, as a result of upgrades at the Reficar facility, will push Colombia's crude oil exports lower over the next seven years, reaching a nadir of 417,90b/d in 2022. We project the exports to recover slightly to 435,890b/d by the end of our forecast period in 2025.
The Colombia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Colombia including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Colombia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Colombian oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Colombia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Colombian oil and gas market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Colombian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Colombia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:
- Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
- Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
- Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.
BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook
Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.
The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.