Colombia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 08 May 2015

  • 119 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Colombia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: The government's push for improvement to the Colombian healthcare sector, combined with the country's growing burden of chronic conditions and reliance on imported drugs will keep the healthcare and pharmaceutical markets on positive trajectories. However, the country's expanding counterfeit drug market along with government bailouts for local health insurance schemes will remain a risk in 2015.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: COP8,643bn (USD4.3bn) in 2014 to COP9,109bn (USD3.5bn) in 2015; +5.4% in local currency terms. F orecast revised downward from Q 2 15 due to historical data.

  • Healthcare: COP53,417bn (USD26.7bn) in 2014 to COP57,381bn (USD22.2bn) in 2015; +7.4% in local currency terms. Forecast revised downward upward from Q 2 15 due to historical data.

Risk/Reward Index

In our Q315 regional Risk/Reward Index assessment, Colombia remained in seventh place out of 18 markets surveyed in the Americas region. Colombia boasts above-average Rewards and Risks. Although we caution that the country's intellectual property regime and its unresolved security situation will continue to represent barriers to multinational involvement, Colombia will remain of interest from a longer term point of view, not least on account of its substantial population.

Key Trends And Developments

  • In April 2015, the Association of Pharmaceutical Research-Based Producers, which represents 18 multinational pharmaceutical companies, issued a request for the Colombian government to raise medicine prices throughout the country in order to compensate for the negative effects of the country's weakening currency on pharmaceutical company revenues.

  • In February 2015, the Colombian government made the decision to bail out public health insurance provider Caprecom, after the company accrued COP1bn (USD401,500) in debt.

  • In February 2015, President Juan Manuel Santos signed the Statutory Health Law, almost 20 months after Congress had initially passed it,...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Operational Risk
13
Industry Forecast
15
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
15
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2011-2019)
16
Healthcare Market Forecast
17
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2011-2019)
19
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2011-2019)
19
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2011-2019)
20
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
21
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2011-2019)
22
Patented Drug Market Forecast
23
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2011-2019)
25
Generic Drug Market Forecast
26
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2011-2019)
28
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
29
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2011-2019)
31
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
32
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2013-2019)
34
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Colombia 2013-2019)
34
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
34
Macroeconomic Forecasts
36
Economic Analysis
36
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus Forecasts* WTI And Brent, Front Month - USD/bbl
36
Table: GDP Contribution To Growth (Colombia 2012-2020)
40
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
41
Americas Risk/Reward Index
41
Colombia Risk/Reward Index
46
Rewards
47
Risks
48
Market Overview
49
Industry Trends And Developments
51
Epidemiology
51
Healthcare Sector
53
Table: Healthcare Resources (Colombia 2009-2014)
57
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Colombia 2009-2014)
58
Table: Healthcare Activity (Colombia 2009-2014)
58
Research And Development
58
Table: Pharmaceutical Research and Science Centre (CECIF) Members, 2012
59
Clinical Trials
59
Regulatory Development
62
Intellectual Property Regime
63
Table: Colombia-US FTA Mechanisms Relevant To Intellectual Property
66
Pricing Regime
67
Reimbursement Regime
69
Competitive Landscape
72
Research-Based Industry
72
Table: Members Of Asociaci-n De Laboratorios Farmac-uticos De Investigaci-n (AFIDRO), 2012
74
Table: Leading Pharmaceutical Companies By Revenues, 2011 (COPmn)
74
Pharmaceutical Distribution
75
Table: Leading Pharmaceutical Importers/Wholesalers By Revenues, 2011
76
Pharmaceutical Retail
77
Company Profile
79
Tecnoqu-micas
79
Lafrancol
82
Laboratorios Genfar SA
85
Laboratorios Bussi-
88
GlaxoSmithKline
91
Pfizer
94
Merck & Co
98
Sanofi
101
Novartis
104
Demographic Forecast
107
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Colombia 1990-2025)
108
Table: Key Population Ratios (Colombia 1990-2025)
108
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Colombia 1990-2025)
109
Table: Population By Age Group (Colombia 1990-2025)
109
Table: Population By Age Group % (Colombia 1990-2025)
110
Glossary
112
Methodology
114
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
114
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
114
Notes On Methodology
115
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
116
Index Overview
117
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
117
Indicator Weightings
118

The Colombia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Colombia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Colombia pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Colombia, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Colombian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Colombian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Colombia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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