BMI View: A growing burden of chronic diseases, along with the Colombian government's push toward improving health coverage, will ensure the country's retained appeal to multinational drugmakers and healthcare suppliers. However, ineffi ciencies and debt within health care provision will fuel instability in the health care sector.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: COP9,101bn (USD3.31bn) in 2015 to COP9,584bn (USD2.92bn) in 2016; +5.3% in local currency and -12.0% in US dollars.
Healthcare: COP54,299bn (USD19.8bn) in 2015 to COP57,940bn (USD17.6bn) in 2016; +6.7% in local currency and -10.9% in US dollars.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||4.316||3.315||2.916||3.129||3.640||4.125||4.510|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.14||1.12||1.09||1.07||1.05||1.04||1.03|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||16.9||16.8||16.5||16.2||16.0||15.7||15.5|
|Health spending, USDbn||25.497||19.776||17.626||19.258||22.803||26.280||29.181|
In our Q216 regional Risk/Reward Index, Colombia is ranked eighth of 19 markets surveyed in the Americas region, down one place from seventh in the previous quarter. The country's overall Risk/Reward score was 53.0, just above the regional average of 50.5. Colombia boasts above-average Rewards and Risks, although we caution that the country's intellectual property regime will continue to represent barriers to multinational involvement. Nevertheless, Colombia will continue to be of interest from a longer-term point of view, not least on account of its substantial population numbers.
Key Trends and Developments
Colombia's healthcare system has a deficit of COP5.3trn (USD1.6bn), mainly caused by mismanagement and corrupt practices in healthcare intermediaries, according to Health Minister Alejandro Gaviria, speaking in December 2015. To improve the situation, the government had previously pushed for healthcare reform through congress in 2014, but failed to develop a system that removed the chronically corrupt EPS healthcare intermediaries.
According to the Pan Americas Health Organization (PAHO) and the World Health Organization (WHO), 18 countries and territories in the Americas confirmed autochtonous circulation of the Zika virus between February 2014 and January 17 2016. These territories include: Brazil, Barbados, Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador, French Guiana, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Martinique, Mexico, Panama, Paraguay, Puerto Rico, Saint Martin, Suriname and Venezuela. Between November 2015 and January 2016, local transmission of the virus was detected in 14 new countries and territories, highlighting the rapid spread of the virus.
BMI Economic View
Inflation will remain well above the bank's tolerance band in H116, before easing somewhat in the latter part of the year. We forecast headline price growth to average 5.8% in 2016, above our previous 5.1% forecast, before dropping to 4.6% y-o-y by year-end. Food price pressures will remain significant in the coming months due to dry weather precipitated by El Nino. Food price inflation came in at 12.3% y-o-y in January, well above the 5.4% y-o-y reading in the same month of 2015. We expect food price growth will begin to ease in the latter part of the year though, as the effects of El Nino fade, tempering headline inflation.
BMI Political View
Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos is looking to solidify the peace process with the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) beyond the scope of the peace negotiations and keep pressure on the insurgent group to conclude a peace deal in the next couple of months. The government is working towards a self-imposed deadline of March 23, six months after an agreement was reached on transitional justice (punishment for human rights abuses and compensation for victims), one of the most difficult points of the negotiations. While the FARC has stated that this timeline is unrealistic, we believe that a deal is highly likely in H116.
The Colombia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Colombia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Colombia pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Colombia, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Colombian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Colombian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Colombia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.