BMI View: A growing burden of chronic diseases, along with the Colombian government's push toward improving health coverage , will ensure the country's retained appeal to multinational drugmakers and healthcare suppliers. However, h igh levels of debt among some he alth insurance providers will fuel instability in the health care sector .
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: COP8,643bn (USD4.32bn) in 2014 to COP9,101bn (USD3.32bn) in 2015; +5.3% in local currency terms. F orecast broadly unchanged from previous quarter.
Healthcare: COP51,644bn (USD25.8bn) in 2014 to COP55,502bn (USD20.3bn) in 2015; +7.5% in local currency terms. Forecast revised downwards from Q415 due to historical data.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||4.347||4.316||3.324||3.147||3.434||3.758||4.160|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.14||1.14||1.12||1.10||1.09||1.07||1.06|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||16.9||16.7||16.4||16.1||15.8||15.4||15.1|
|Health spending, USDbn||25.751||25.789||20.269||19.579||21.801||24.330||27.459|
In our Q116 regional Risk/Reward Index, Colombia has maintained seventh place out of 19 markets surveyed in the Americas region. The country's overall Risk/Reward score was 50.3, just above the regional average of 48.9. Colombia boasts above-average Rewards and Risks, although we caution that the country's intellectual property regime will continue to represent barriers to multinational involvement. Nevertheless, Colombia will continue to be of interest from a longer term point of view, not least on account of its substantial population numbers.
Key Trends and Developments
In November 2015, Colombia's competitiveness regulatory agency Superintendency of Industry and Commerce (SIC) imposed a fine of COP1.5mn (USD530.7) on six drugmakers for overcharging for drugs. The implicated drugmakers were Memphis Products, Sanofi-Aventis de Colombia, Novartis de Colombia, Procaps, Quideca and Lafrancol. The regulator found that these firms sold 17 drugs at higher prices than set by the National Commission on Drug Pricing and Medical devices between November 2012 and July 2013.
The Ministry of Health announced in September 2015 that beneficiaries of the federally bailed out Caprecom health insurance company would be forced to rely upon public health promoting entities known as Nueva EPS for their medical needs. The announcement has led to public outcry by Caprecom patients, who are calling the decision 'irresponsible' due to concerns over the quality of care provided by Nueva EPS.
BMI Economic View
Colombia's real GDP growth will accelerate in 2016, on the back of increased infrastructure sector activity and a modest uptick in oil production. That said, given persistent fiscal constraints on the infrastructure sector and Colombia's more challenging below-ground picture, this will only provide modest tailwinds, insufficient to see the economy regain the momentum it possessed during the commodity boom years.
BMI Political View
The government's fiscal constraints, stemming from weak oil revenues (which accounted for nearly one-fifth of total fiscal intakes in 2014) will temper the extent of growth in public spending. Notably, with the government facing substantial pressure on its fiscal position, necessitating further spending cuts and revenue generating measures, we are sceptical that it will be able to fully deliver on its investment promises.
The Colombia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Colombia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Colombia pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Colombia, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Colombian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Colombian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Colombia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.