Colombia Retail Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the retail industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Retail Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

Why you should buy this report

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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Colombia Retail Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Consumer confidence in Colombia remains dented as a result of the impact of lower commodity prices and the weak peso. Recent increases in both inflation and unemployment rates will do nothing to improve consumer confidence, further dampening household spending on non-essentials and larger retail purchases. With any significant improvements in the macroeconomic environment looking less likely this year, the strong growth potential of the Colombian economy will remain muted.

Headline Household Spending
(2014-2020)
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, DANE Colombia

Key Views And Developments

  • Colombia-based retailer Home Sentry opened its 11th department store in April 2016, in Cali, at an investment of COP35,000mn.

  • Chilean retailer Falabella, announced recently that it aims to triple its sales and double the number of its stores in Colombia by 2018 through an investment programme totalling USD200mn.

  • We have revised up our end-2016 policy rate forecast to 7.75% from 7.00% previously in light of the latest rate decision by the central bank, and we no longer expect interest rate cuts to start later this year ( see 'Hiking Cycle Nearing Its Peak', June 7).

  • Low oil prices, which saw the Colombian peso become one of the worst-performing EM currencies, and supply-driven shocks affecting food prices, saw headline inflation reach 9.0% y-o-y in July, its highest level in almost 16 years.

  • The unemployment rate in Colombia increased above expectations to reach 9.8% in July 2016, up nearly one percentage point on the previous month and showing its highest reading since March. This, together with the country's high inflation rate looks set to dampen household spending levels for the remainder of 2016.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Retail SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Headline Retail Forecast
11
Table: Total Household Spending (Colombia 2013-2020)
14
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Colombia 2013-2020)
15
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Colombia 2013-2020)
16
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Colombia 2013-2020)
17
Retail Sector Forecast
20
Food & Drink
21
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending (Colombia 2013-2020)
22
Clothing & Footwear
23
Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending (Colombia 2013-2020)
23
Household Goods
24
Table: Household Goods Spending (Colombia 2013-2020)
24
Personal Care & Effects
25
Table: Personal Care Spending (Colombia 2013-2020)
26
Household Income and Numbers Forecast
27
Table: Household Income Data (Colombia 2013-2020)
28
Table: Labour Market Data (Colombia 2013-2020)
30
Demographic Forecast
31
Table: Total Population (Colombia 2013-2020)
34
Table: Population: Babies (Colombia 2013-2020)
35
Table: Population: Young Children (Colombia 2013-2020)
35
Table: Population: Children (Colombia 2013-2020)
35
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Colombia 2013-2020)
36
Table: Population: Young People (Colombia 2013-2020)
36
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Colombia 2013-2020)
36
Table: Population: 21yrs + (Colombia 2013-2020)
37
Table: Population: Young Adults (Colombia 2013-2020)
37
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Colombia 2013-2020)
38
Table: Population: Urban (Colombia 2013-2020)
38
Industry Risk/Reward Index
39
Latin America And The Caribbean Risk/Reward Index
39
Table: Latin America And The Caribbean Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q316
39
Colombia Risk/Reward Index
40
Rewards
40
Risks
41
Market Overview
43
Competitive Landscape
46
Clothing & Footwear
46
Table: Selected Clothing & Footwear Retailers
46
Household Goods
46
Table: Selected Household Goods Retailers
46
Electronics
47
Table: Selected Electronics Retailers
47
Department Stores
47
Table: Selected Department Store Chains
47
E-commerce
48
Table: Selected E-commerce Retailers
48
Pharmacies
48
Table: Selected Pharmacy Chains
48
Glossary
49
Methodology
56
Industry Forecast Methodology
56
Sources
59
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
59
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators
60
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
62

The Colombia Retail Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.

BMI's Colombia Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Colombia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Colombian retail market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Colombia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:

  • Headline Retail Forecast: Total household spending (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household), spending by retail sector (food & non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing & footwear, housing & utilities, furnishings & home, health, transport, recreation, education, restaurants & hotels, personal care & insurance (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)
  • Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tablewear, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (USDbn, % Growth)
  • Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000, % growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – USD5000+, USD10,000+ USD50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)
  • Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).

BMI’s Retail Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care. The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.

Competitive Landscape

This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.

Sources

The Retail Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.