Colombia Retail Report

Published 16 June 2015

  • 69 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Colombia Retail Report

BMI View: With the fourth largest economy in Latin America, measured by GDP, Colombia ' s retail sector presents many opportunities for international and domestic retailers, as well as investors. Years of economically sound policy have lowered barriers to entry for international firms, and sustained economic growth has brought lower unemployment rates and higher levels of affluence for a significant portion of the population. However, lingering poverty levels, a deficient physical and transportation infrastructure, and the slow rate of non-cash payment integration into the economy continue to remain a hindrance to achieving full economic growth potential. Nevertheless, significant opportunities remain. In particular, the continuing fall of the informal sector ' s market share and the continuing rise of e-commerce and online retail should provide meaningful incentive for further investment and expansion.

Overall, the economy looks set to expand, with year-on-year (y-o-y) real GDP growth forecast at 3.1% and 3.5% in 2015 and 2016 respectively. However, due to recent currency fluctuations, BMI projects that total household income and total household spending, in USD terms, as well as household spending across all sub-sectors of the retail market we monitor, will see a significant contraction y-o-y in 2015. Nevertheless, this is expected be a short-term trend, as we predict a return to positive growth of household income and spending in 2016. Furthermore, we expect that in 2016, the number of households in the middle class bracket will increase by over 7%. Among other things, this should provide increased (as a % of total spending) "non-essentials" spending, on sectors such as recreation & culture, which is expected to see the highest growth rates over our forecast period, and decreased (as a % of total spending) spending on "essential" sectors, such as food & non-alcoholic drinks, which is expected to see the lowest growth rates over our forecast period.

While a...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Retail SWOT
10
Political
12
Economic
13
Industry Forecast
14
Headline Retail Forecast
14
Table: Total Household Spending (Colombia 2012-2019)
16
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Colombia 2012-2019)
18
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Colombia 2012-2019)
19
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Colombia 2012-2019)
20
Retail Sector Forecast
22
Food & Drink
22
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending (Colombia 2012-2019)
23
Clothing & Footwear
23
Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending (Colombia 2012-2019)
24
Household Goods
25
Table: Household Goods Spending (Colombia 2012-2019)
25
Personal Care & Effects
26
Table: Personal Care Spending (Colombia 2012-2019)
27
Household Income and Numbers Forecast
28
Table: Household Income Data (Colombia 2012-2019)
30
Table: Labour Market Data (Colombia 2012-2019)
32
Demographic Forecast
32
Table: Total Population (Colombia 2012-2019)
33
Table: Population: Babies (Colombia 2012-2019)
34
Table: Population: Young Children (Colombia 2012-2019)
34
Table: Population: Children (Colombia 2012-2019)
34
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Colombia 2012-2019)
35
Table: Population: Young People (Colombia 2012-2019)
35
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Colombia 2012-2019)
35
Table: Population: 21yrs + (Colombia 2012-2019)
36
Table: Population: Young Adults (Colombia 2012-2019)
36
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Colombia 2012-2019)
36
Table: Population: Urban (Colombia 2012-2019)
37
Macroeconomic Forecasts
38
Economic Analysis
38
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus Forecasts* WTI And Brent, Front Month - USD/bbl
38
Table: GDP Contribution To Growth (Colombia 2012-2020)
42
Industry Risk Reward Index
43
Latin America Risk/Reward Index
43
Table: Latin America Retail Risk/Reward Index
43
Colombia Risk/Reward Index
44
Rewards
44
Risks
44
Market Overview
45
Competitive Landscape
49
MGR
49
Supermarkets
51
Convenience Stores
51
Quick-Service Restaurants (QSRs)
52
Department Stores
53
Fashion
54
Glossary
55
Methodology
63
Industry Forecast Methodology
63
Sources
66
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
66
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators
67
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
69

The Colombia Retail Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.

BMI's Colombia Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Colombia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Colombian retail market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Colombia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:

  • Headline Retail Forecast: Total household spending (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household), spending by retail sector (food & non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing & footwear, housing & utilities, furnishings & home, health, transport, recreation, education, restaurants & hotels, personal care & insurance (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)
  • Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tablewear, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (USDbn, % Growth)
  • Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000, % growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – USD5000+, USD10,000+ USD50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)
  • Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).

BMI’s Retail Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care. The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.

Competitive Landscape

This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.

Sources

The Retail Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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