BMI View: While Colombia's economy possesses strong growth potential, headwinds are lingering throughout 2016 , resulting in lower commodity prices and a weak peso. This has dented consumer confidence and spending levels , which is in turn affecting the retail sector. High inflation will also force households to delay larger purchases till conditions stabilise. We expect the macroeconomic environment to improve considerably towards the end of 2016 and into 2017.
|Headline Household Spending|
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, DANE Colombia|
Key Views And Developments
Ripley, a Chilean retailer, and one of the two largest department store chains in Colombia, has announced that it would be leaving the country after accumulating USD27mn in losses in 2014 alone due to unexpected macroeconomic shifts. The firm operated six stores in Colombia.
Grupo Uribe, one of the major franchise operators in Colombia, closed all of its 12 Mango stores in the country, quoting allegedly unfair competition as the reason for exit.
In response to growing inflationary pressure, Colombia's central bank raised the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 7.25% at the end of May. The tightening comes after the decline of peso prompted prices to rise.
Weak peso will continue to have a commanding effect on total household spending in 2016 as the figure is projected to decline by 3.1% in dollar terms. In terms of local currency, nominal increase in household expenditures will rise by 9.2% this year.
Improved economy will lay foundations for decline in unemployment and rise in household incomes, as the number of households in the USD10,000-plus income bracket expands by an average of 16.9% annually.
The Colombia Retail Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.
BMI's Colombia Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.
- Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Colombia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Colombian retail market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Colombia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:
- Headline Retail Forecast: Total household spending (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household), spending by retail sector (food & non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing & footwear, housing & utilities, furnishings & home, health, transport, recreation, education, restaurants & hotels, personal care & insurance (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)
- Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tablewear, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (USDbn, % Growth)
- Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000, % growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – USD5000+, USD10,000+ USD50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)
- Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).
BMI’s Retail Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care. The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.
This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.
The Retail Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.