BMI View: We expect robust private consumption to remain the main driver of the Colombian economy in the coming quarters, forecasting growth of 4.8% in 2014 and 4.5% in 2015. We forecast total household spending on the retail sector to rise by an average 10.0% a year between 2015 and 2018, with a projected 29.8% increase in net household income over the period providing attractive opportunities for retailers. Although food & drink will continue to account for a large share of the household budget over our forecast period, increased non-essential purchasing will see sectors such as personal care grow more rapidly.
Small independent retailers still play a major role in the Colombian retail market, but many are losing market share to large domestic and international players whose modern formats appeal to the growing middle class - BMI forecasts that the USD10,000-plus middle-income bracket will increase by more than 40% by 2018. The largest retailers in the country are also developing e-commerce businesses to meet growing demand from a young, computer-savvy population, with BMI data showing the young adult 20-39 years population reaching 16.06mn by 2018.
BMI forecasts that total household spending on retail will increase from USD59.54bn in 2015 to USD80.83bn in 2018. The total spend per household is forecast to increase from USD4,076 to USD5,217 over the same period. Increasing affluence is making Colombia an attractive market for regional and international retailers alike, with Chilean companies such as Ripley, Falabella and Cencosud all major players, and Oxxo of Mexico and Jerónimo Martins of Portugal also expanding.
Over 2015-2018, impressive annual gains in the retail sector will be seen in personal, insurance & other, forecast to increase at an average annual rate of 10.8%. Recreation & culture, transport and health will also grow strongly, at more than 10% a year. Indeed, all sectors of the Colombian retail industry are forecast to post annual growth...
The Colombia Retail Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.
BMI's Colombia Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.
- Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Colombia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Colombian retail market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Colombia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:
- Headline Retail Forecast: Total household spending (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household), spending by retail sector (food & non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing & footwear, housing & utilities, furnishings & home, health, transport, recreation, education, restaurants & hotels, personal care & insurance (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)
- Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tablewear, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (USDbn, % Growth)
- Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000, % growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – USD5000+, USD10,000+ USD50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)
- Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).
BMI’s Retail Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care. The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.
This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.
The Retail Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.