BMI forecasts an expansion in container and gross tonnage handling across all Colombian ports in 2015, cementing a return to growth following a 2013 downturn. That said, domestic container demand will be more muted than we expected , as falling oil prices will w eigh on economic growth. W e have revised down our real GDP forecast for 2015 from 4.9% to 3.9%, and our Cartagena container throughput forecasts correspondingly .
Headline Industry Data
The port of Cartagena will see total tonnage volume increase by 4.5% to 21.63mn tonnes in 2015, and will average growth of 5.3% to 2019.
Container traffic at Cartagena will grow by 7.9% to 2.22mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in 2015. Growth to 2019 will average 9.4%.
Volume at the Pacific port of Buenaventura will rise by 3.3% to 9.72mn tonnes in 2015, while container traffic will rise by 4.8%, to reach 526,999TEUs.
Key Industry Trends
Falling Oil Price Threatens Growth Outlook : The dramatic fall in the price of oil at the end of 2014 and start of 2015, when Brent crude lost more than half its value and dropped below USD50 per barrel (/bbl), has led us to revise down our outlook for real GDP growth in Colombia. We now project an expansion of 3.9% in 2015, compared to our previous projection of 4.9%. This has potential consequences for the country's ports. Faltering consumer sentiment could see household spending curtailed, especially as a fall in tax revenues leads to cuts in government spending. This would negatively impact container throughput at the country's facilities. A drop in investment, meanwhile, could lead to a fall in dry bulk and project cargo imports through the ports.
Coal Production Growth Will Support Bulk Volumes : Although we have revised down our container throughput forecast for the port of Cartagena on the back of macroeconomic changes, we have left our projection for gross tonnage throughput at the Pacific port of Buenaventura untouched. The facility is a key export terminal...
The Colombia Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Colombia.
BMI's Colombia Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Colombia.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.
Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).
Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.