Colombia Shipping Report

Published 21 May 2015

  • 89 pages
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$1,295.00
Colombia Shipping Report

BMI View: BMI forecasts an expansion in container and gross tonnage handling across all Colombian ports in 2015, cementing the strong growth seen in 2014. That said, domestic container demand will be more muted than we expected, and a weaker performance by Colombia's crucial hydrocarbon sector will weigh heavily on headline real GDP growth over the coming years . We have revised down our real GDP forecast for 2015 from 4.9% to 3.9%.

A weaker performance by Colombia's crucial hydrocarbon sector will weigh heavily on headline real GDP growth over coming years. As a result, after growth of an estimated 4.9% in 2014, we forecast real GDP expansion of 3.9% in 2015, rising only slightly to 4.0% in 2016.

These forecasts are significant downward revisions from our previous forecasts for growth of 4.9% in 2015 and 4.7% in 2016, and put us well below Bloomberg consensus for 2015 (4.5%). Nevertheless, we expect strong growth at the country's ports, based on robust growth in key sectors, such as infrastructure, construction and mining.

Headline Industry Data

  • The port of Cartagena will see total tonnage volume increase by 7.9% to 23.0mn tonnes in 2015, and will average growth of 5.9% to 2019.

  • Container traffic at Cartagena will grow by 3% to 2.28mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in 2015. Growth to 2019 will average 5.6%.

  • Volume at the Pacific port of Buenaventura will rise by 3.3% to 12.1mn tonnes in 2015, while container traffic will rise by 4.8%, to reach 699,179TEUs.

Key Industry Trends

Oil Prices to Weigh on Port Volumes

A weaker performance by the hydrocarbon sector will affect real GDP growth, and put pressure on port volumes. A difficult below-ground picture and uncertain security environment will temper Colombia's crude production growth. This will be exacerbated by structurally lower oil prices. We forecast that WTI will average USD52.0 per barrel (bbl) in 2015 and USD56.0/bbl in 2016, and that Brent will average USD55.0/bbl and USD60.0/bbl....

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
5
Colombia - Q314
5
SWOT
7
Colombia - Q315
7
Political
9
Economic
10
Operational Risk
11
Industry Forecast
13
Port Of Cartagena Throughput
13
Port Of Buenaventura Throughput
16
Table: Major Ports Data (Colombia 2012-2019)
19
Table: Trade Overview (Colombia 2012-2019)
20
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Colombia 2012-2019)
20
Table: Colombia's Main Import Partners, 2006-2013 (USDmn)
21
Table: Colombia's Main Export Destinations, 2006-2013 (USDmn)
22
Market Overview
23
Colombia Container Shipping Market Overview
23
Shipping - Global Industry View
30
Three Container Routes To Watch In 2015
30
Global Company Strategy
37
Maersk Line
37
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
48
CMA CGM
54
Evergreen Line
63
COSCO Container Lines Company (COSCON)
71
Macroeconomic Forecasts
79
Economic Analysis
79
Table: Economic Activity (Colombia 2010-2019)
84
Demographic Forecast
85
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Colombia 1990-2025)
86
Table: Key Population Ratios (Colombia 1990-2025)
86
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Colombia 1990-2025)
87
Table: Population By Age Group (Colombia 1990-2025)
87
Table: Population By Age Group % (Colombia 1990-2025)
88

The Colombia Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and BMI Research's independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Colombia.

BMI's Colombia Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Colombia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Colombia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Colombian shipping market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Colombia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Market Overview

Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.

Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).

Company Profiles

Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc