Cote d'Ivoire Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

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  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Cote d'Ivoire Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views:

  • The Ivoirien economy will continue to fire on all cylinders in 2016, as strong macroeconomic fundamentals and a reduction in political risk following the 2015 presidential elections encourage inward investment, and we forecast a real GDP expansion of 9.6%.

  • We maintain our view that Cote d'Ivoire's budget deficit will remain wide in 2016 and 2017 as the government invests in a series of key infrastructure projects, before beginning to decrease from 2018 onwards. With the eurobond issuance we had previously anticipated looking less likely, we believe that Cote d'Ivoire will make use of concessional and semi-concessional lending in order to fund its plans.

  • Cote d'Ivoire's current account deficit will enjoy a recovery from 2017 onwards following its sharp deterioration in 2016. This will be driven by a recovery in its key commodity exports of cocoa and oil, albeit weighed down by falling tourism receipts and high growth in capital imports.

  • The Banque Centrale des Etats de l'Afrique de l'Ouest will hold rates firm over the next 18 months as the West African franc's peg to the euro and benign external pressure keep price growth low. The stable environment will encourage ongoing investment into the eight countries of the Union Economique et Monetaire Ouest Africaine.

  • Policy formation in Cote d'Ivoire will slow in President Alassane Ouattara's second term as attentions turn to who will succeed him in 2020. The risk of conflict will rise as the elections near, and the country scores lower on our long-term political risk scores than on the short-term.

Key Risks:

  • Our broad outlook is dependent on the maintenance of a stable political situation that allows for significant levels of foreign investment and the implementation of the government's reform and development plans. Such stability is not a certainty, however, and for this reason ethnic and political tensions pose the key risk to the country's economic prospects.

  • The economy's reliance on cocoa exports means that poor weather could seriously damage exports.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Cote dIvoire 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 8.5 10.3 9.6 9.1
Nominal GDP, USDbn 34.3 32.5 35.0 40.4
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 0.9 1.3 2.5 2.8
Exchange rate XOF/USD, eop 540.28 602.51 596.32 570.40
Budget balance, % of GDP -1.9 -3.4 -3.3 -3.3
Current account balance, % of GDP -0.4 -1.7 -4.0 -3.4
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
Sub-Saharan African Growth Outperformer
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
10
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
10
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
11
Concessionary Borrowing Will Fund Expansionary Budget
11
Structural Fiscal Position
12
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
13
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
13
External Trade And Investment Outlook
14
Current Account Will Improve From 2017
14
Outlook On External Position
16
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT
16
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
17
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS IN 2014
17
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS IN 2014
18
Monetary Policy
18
Stable Monetary Policy Will Encourage Investment
18
Monetary Policy Framework
19
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
20
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
21
The Ivorian Economy To 2025
21
A Bright Decade Ahead, But Fragilities To Persist
21
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
21
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
23
SWOT Analysis
23
BMI Political Risk Index
23
Domestic Politics
24
Policy Formation Will Slow In Ouattara's Second Term
24
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
24
Long-Term Political Outlook
25
Post-Conflict Challenges To Linger
25
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
29
SWOT Analysis
29
Operational Risk Index
29
Operational Risk
30
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
30
Market Size And Utilities
31
TABLE: SSA - MARKET SIZE AND UTILITIES RISK
32
Labour Costs
35
TABLE: LABOUR REGULATIONS GOVERNING FLEXIBILITY OF WORKFORCE
35
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
39
Global Macro Outlook
39
Brexit Risk Casts A Long Shadow
39
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
39
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
40
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
41
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
43

Assess your risk exposure in Cote d`Ivoire with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Cote d`Ivoire with confidence.

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