Cote d'Ivoire Country Risk Report

Published 22 July 2015 | Quarterly

  • 40 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
Cote d'Ivoire Country Risk Report

Core Views:

  • In terms of real GDP growth, Cote d'Ivoire is BMI's pick of Sub-Saharan Africa. We forecast an expansion of 9.1% in 2015, followed by a further 9.0% in 2016, as effective management, business reforms, and increased stability encourage strong investment inflows. Our forecast is a moderate downgrade since our last quarterly report, when we projected growth of 9.4% - the figure the Ivorian authorities are currently predicting, according to an IMF report published on June 12. This is due to a more unpredictable political landscape, as an increasingly united opposition has made incumbent President Alassane Outarra's re-election in October 2015 less of a certainty than we had previously believed.

  • We forecast that Cote d'Ivoire's current account deficit will steadily widen over the next several years, as strong growth in imports and falling cocoa prices will weigh on the trade balance. Even as Cote d'Ivoire's current account shortfall increases, we do not believe that it will be a major cause for concern, given the West African country's attractiveness to investors at present which will ensure an inflow of funds and keep the overall balance in surplus.

  • We remain convinced that a victory for incumbent President Alassane Ouattara is the most likely outcome of the upcoming October 2015 elections, the first since the 2010 polls that ended in months of violence. The president has overseen over four years of rapid economic growth and increasing stability, and a second term for the president will be a positive for investment in the country, given his reputation as a strong manager and the series of economic reforms that are being implemented under his presidency.

  • We forecast that Cote d'Ivoire will see low price growth in 2015, predicting an average monthly rate of 1.5% over the year, and a year-end level of 1.8%. This low rate is in common with its fellow UEMOA [ Union Economique et Monetaire Ouest-Africaine] members, where despite strong economic...

Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks To Outlook
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
Investment Will Be Deterred By Mounting Electoral Uncertainty
TABLE: Political Over vie w
Long-Term Political Outlook
Post-Conflict Challenges To Linger
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Activity
Top SSA Growth Pick For 2015
TABLE: Eco nomic Activity
Monetary Policy
Inflation Rate Will Remain Far Below SSA Average
Balance Of Payments
Investment-Related Imports Will Widen Current Account Deficit
Fiscal Policy
Budget Deficit Will Widen On Strong Development Spending
TABLE: Fiscal Policy
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
The Ivorian Economy To 2024
A Bright Decade Ahead, But Fragilities To Persist
TABLE: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
SWOT Analysis
Operational Risk Index
Operational Risk
TABLE: Operational Risk
Market Size And Utilities
TABLE: Sub -Saharan Africa - Market Size And Utilities Risk
International Security Risk
TABLE: Sub -Saharan Africa - Interstate Security Risk
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
Global Outlook
Event Risk Mounting But Manageable
Table : Global Assumptions
Table : Developed States , Real GDP GrowtH , %
Table : Emerging Markets , Real GDP Growth, %

The Cote d'Ivoire Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Cote d`Ivoire. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Cote d`Ivoire's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, BMI Research.

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Cote d`Ivoire's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • Contextualise Cote d`Ivoire's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Cote d`Ivoire, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Cote d'Ivoire Country Risk Report by BMI Research includes three major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook and Operational Risk.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Cote d`Ivoire' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Cote d`Ivoire through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Cote d'Ivoire Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:


  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector obligations).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2019 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Cote d`Ivoire and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Cote d`Ivoire, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Cote d`Ivoire over the next 5-years?

BMI's Cote d`Ivoire country Risk Index evaluates the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Cote d`Ivoire Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Cote d`Ivoire.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Index assesses explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest positioning and trends for Cote d`Ivoire's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.
  • Long-Term Political Outlook BMI examines the structural risks to the stability of Cote d`Ivoire’s political system and the dominant public policy issues likely to affect decision-makers, and outlines scenarios for how the state could evolve in the medium to long term.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark Cote d`Ivoire's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

Operational Risk

What are the current operational risks and difficulties associated with doing business in Cote d`Ivoire?

The Operational Risk section gives an evaluation of current risks and difficulties associated with operating in the market. It also provides a brief overview of the regional Operational Risk Index which benchmarks Cote d`Ivoire against its neighbours.

Operational Risk Contents

The chapter provides a summary of the main threats in the country, within:

  • Labour Market Risk (Education; Availability of Labour; and Labour Costs)
  • Logistics Risk (Market Size and Utilities; Quality and Extent of the Transport Governance)
  • Trade and Investment Risk (Economic Openness; Government Intervention; and Legal Risks)
  • Crime and Security Risk (Crime; Terrorism; and Interstate Conflict risks).

The report also drills down in greater depth to address key issues in one of the following segments most critical to the market:

  • Transport network, economic openness, cost and availability of labour, crime risks, bureaucratic environment, market size and utilities, and interstate conflict.
  • Assess your company’s exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using BMI’s insight on the current dangers of operating in the market.
  • Evaluate Cote d`Ivoire’s risk profile against its regional peers, helping you understand the market’s strengths and weaknesses in relation to other countries.

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