Cote d'Ivoire Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

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  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Cote d'Ivoire Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views:

  • The Ivoirien economy will continue to fire on all cylinders in 2016, as strong macroeconomic fundamentals and a reduction in political risk following the 2015 presidential elections encourage inward investment, and we forecast a real GDP expansion of 9.6%.

  • We maintain our view that Cote d'Ivoire's budget deficit will remain wide in 2016 and 2017 as the government invests in a series of key infrastructure projects, before beginning to decrease from 2018 onwards. With the eurobond issuance we had previously anticipated looking less likely, we believe that Cote d'Ivoire will make use of concessional and semi-concessional lending in order to fund its plans.

  • Cote d'Ivoire's current account deficit will enjoy a recovery from 2017 onwards following its sharp deterioration in 2016. This will be driven by a recovery in its key commodity exports of cocoa and oil, albeit weighed down by falling tourism receipts and high growth in capital imports.

  • The Banque Centrale des Etats de l'Afrique de l'Ouest will hold rates firm over the next 18 months as the West African franc's peg to the euro and benign external pressure keep price growth low. The stable environment will encourage ongoing investment into the eight countries of the Union Economique et Monetaire Ouest Africaine.

  • Policy formation in Cote d'Ivoire will slow in President Alassane Ouattara's second term as attentions turn to who will succeed him in 2020. The risk of conflict will rise as the elections near, and the country scores lower on our long-term political risk scores than on the short-term.

Key Risks:

  • Our broad outlook is dependent on the maintenance of a stable political situation that allows for significant levels of foreign investment and the implementation of the government's reform and development plans. Such stability is not a certainty, however, and for this reason ethnic and political tensions pose the key risk to the country's economic prospects.

  • The economy's reliance on cocoa exports means that poor weather could seriously damage exports.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Cote dIvoire 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 8.5 10.3 9.6 9.1
Nominal GDP, USDbn 34.3 32.5 35.0 40.4
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 0.9 1.3 2.5 2.8
Exchange rate XOF/USD, eop 540.28 602.51 596.32 570.40
Budget balance, % of GDP -1.9 -3.4 -3.3 -3.3
Current account balance, % of GDP -0.4 -1.7 -4.0 -3.4
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
Strong Investor Interest Will Keep Real GDP Growth Levels High
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
10
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
10
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
11
Return To International Debt Markets Will Fund Expansionary Budget
11
Structural Fiscal Position
12
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
12
External Trade And Investment Outlook
14
Declining Oil And Cocoa Exports Will Widen Current Account Deficit
14
Outlook On External Position
15
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT
15
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS IN 2014
16
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS IN 2014
16
Monetary Policy
17
Coherent Monetary Policy Will Encourage Investment
17
Monetary Policy Framework
18
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
21
The Ivorian Economy To 2025
21
A Bright Decade Ahead, But Fragilities To Persist
21
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
21
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
23
SWOT Analysis
23
BMI Political Risk Index
23
Domestic Politics
24
Latest Terror Attack Highlights Need For Regional Cooperation
24
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
24
Long-Term Political Outlook
26
Post-Conflict Challenges To Linger
26
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
29
SWOT Analysis
29
Operational Risk Index
29
Operational Risk
30
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
30
Economic Openness
31
TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
33
TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
34
Availability Of Labour
36
TABLE: SSA - AVAILABILITY OF LABOUR RISK
37
TABLE: TOP 10 SOURCE COUNTRIES FOR MIGRANT WORKERS
38
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
41
Global Macro Outlook
41
Emerging Markets Nearing Inflexion Point
41
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
41
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
42
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
42
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
43
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
45

Assess your risk exposure in Cote d`Ivoire with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Cote d`Ivoire with confidence.

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