Cote d'Ivoire's economic expansion outlook continues to be one of the strongest in Africa, and we forecast real GDP growth of 8.7% in 2016, following a projected 8.7% in 2015. With the October 2015 elections behind it - we expect that the vote will pass relatively peacefully, avoiding a repetition of the 2010 post-election violence that threw the country into turmoil - any remaining investor fears over potential upheavals will abate. Another term for incumbent President Alassane Ouattara, who we expect will win in the October elections, will mean a further five years of strong management, pro-business reforms and good relations with private and multilateral investors. Investment - both public and private - will continue to be a major driver of growth in the country over the next several years.
We forecast that Cote d'Ivoire's budget deficit will narrow to 3.4% of GDP in 2016 and stabilising at around the same level - 3.5% - in 2017, from a projected 3.7% of GDP in 2015. This level of shortfall is much greater than the 2.1% recorded in 2014, but this is no cause for concern. The wider deficit is a result of strong investment by the Ouattara administration - as opposed to funds being squandered on unproductive increases to recurrent spending - and we expect a continuation of these policies following his anticipated victory in the upcoming October 2015 elections.
We forecast that price growth will accelerate in Cote d'Ivoire in 2016, rising to an average 1.7% monthly over the course of the year, with a projected year-end figure of 2.0%. This compares to a forecast average of 1.3% in 2015 and a December 2015 projection of 1.2%. This forecast acceleration is predicated primarily on the wearing off of the effect of oil price falls and the rapid economic growth we expect in the country. Global oil prices fell from USD99.5 per barrel (/bbl) in 2014 to a projected USD57/bbl in 2015, but in 2016 we forecast that Brent crude will average USD56/bbl,...
The Cote d'Ivoire Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Cote d`Ivoire. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.
An influential new analysis of Cote d`Ivoire's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, BMI Research.
- Forecast the pace and stability of Cote d`Ivoire's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
- Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
- Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
- Contextualise Cote d`Ivoire's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
- Evaluate external threats to doing business in Cote d`Ivoire, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Cote d`Ivoire through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.
Economic Outlook Contents
The Cote d'Ivoire Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.
Key Areas Covered:
- Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
- BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.
- Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
- Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
- Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
- Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
- Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
- Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
- External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector obligations).
- Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2019 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.
- Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Cote d`Ivoire and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
- Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Cote d`Ivoire, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
- Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.
What are the political risks to doing business in Cote d`Ivoire over the next 5-years?
BMI's Cote d`Ivoire country Risk Index evaluates the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.
Political Outlook Contents
- SWOT Analysis for the Cote d`Ivoire Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Cote d`Ivoire.
- Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Index assesses explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest positioning and trends for Cote d`Ivoire's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
- Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.
- Long-Term Political Outlook BMI examines the structural risks to the stability of Cote d`Ivoire’s political system and the dominant public policy issues likely to affect decision-makers, and outlines scenarios for how the state could evolve in the medium to long term.
- Benchmark Cote d`Ivoire's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
- Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
- Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.
What are the current operational risks and difficulties associated with doing business in Cote d`Ivoire?
The Operational Risk section gives an evaluation of current risks and difficulties associated with operating in the market. It also provides a brief overview of the regional Operational Risk Index which benchmarks Cote d`Ivoire against its neighbours.
Operational Risk Contents
The chapter provides a summary of the main threats in the country, within:
- Labour Market Risk (Education; Availability of Labour; and Labour Costs)
- Logistics Risk (Market Size and Utilities; Quality and Extent of the Transport Governance)
- Trade and Investment Risk (Economic Openness; Government Intervention; and Legal Risks)
- Crime and Security Risk (Crime; Terrorism; and Interstate Conflict risks).
The report also drills down in greater depth to address key issues in one of the following segments most critical to the market:
- Transport network, economic openness, cost and availability of labour, crime risks, bureaucratic environment, market size and utilities, and interstate conflict.
- Assess your company’s exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using BMI’s insight on the current dangers of operating in the market.
- Evaluate Cote d`Ivoire’s risk profile against its regional peers, helping you understand the market’s strengths and weaknesses in relation to other countries.