Cote d'Ivoire remains our top Sub-Saharan African (SSA) growth pick in 2016, when the 8.7% real GDP expansion we anticipate will outstrip the 7.8% growth we predict in our second-placed growth market, Ethiopia. Cote d'Ivoire stands out as offering serious growth potential on an increasingly stable and diversified base. The country is generating major investor interest and has been a popular topic of discussion in BMI's meetings with clients over the past 12 months.
We project that Cote d'Ivoire's budget deficit will come in narrowly in 2016, despite an expansionary budget which is expected to see spending rise by over 11%. Strong economic growth and an increase in revenues will combine to ensure that the deficit does not become unmanageable, despite, at 3.4% of GDP, being wider than usual - the average deficit over the decade to 2015 was 2.4%.
We project that Cote d'Ivoire's current account deficit will widen over the next several years, thanks to a combination of falling cocoa prices and strong capital goods imports related to rising investment. Nevertheless, the shortfall will not exceed 3.5%, and if anything a wider current account deficit is a positive for Cote d'Ivoire at present, as productive imports will help boost economic growth in the years to come.
The issuance of a French arrest warrant for the speaker of Cote d'Ivoire's parliament, Guillaume Soro, has raised questions regarding the state of Ivorian politics in the wake of the October 2015 elections. Namely, has there been a 'victors' justice' in the country over the past five years, and will the newfound peace hold during the 2020 presidential elections.
Our broad outlook is dependent on the maintenance of a stable political situation that allows for significant levels of foreign investment and the implementation of the government's reform and development plans. Such stability is not a certainty, however, and for this reason ethnic and political tensions pose the key risk to the country's economic prospects.
The economy's reliance on cocoa exports means that poor weather could seriously damage exports.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources|
|Real GDP growth, % y-o-y||8.5||9.0||8.7||8.6|
|Nominal GDP, USDbn||34.6||31.9||34.5||39.7|
|Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop||0.9||1.4||2.6||2.6|
|Exchange rate XOF/USD, eop||542.11||624.72||596.32||570.40|
|Budget balance, % of GDP||-1.9||-3.4||-3.2||-3.3|
|Current account balance, % of GDP||-0.3||-1.4||-2.1||-2.8|
The Cote d'Ivoire Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Cote d`Ivoire. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.
An influential new analysis of Cote d`Ivoire's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, BMI Research.
- Forecast the pace and stability of Cote d`Ivoire's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
- Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
- Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
- Contextualise Cote d`Ivoire's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
- Evaluate external threats to doing business in Cote d`Ivoire, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Cote d`Ivoire through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.
Economic Outlook Contents
The Cote d'Ivoire Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.
Key Areas Covered:
- Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
- BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.
- Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
- Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
- Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
- Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
- Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
- Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
- External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector obligations).
- Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2019 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.
- Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Cote d`Ivoire and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
- Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Cote d`Ivoire, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
- Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.
What are the political risks to doing business in Cote d`Ivoire over the next 5-years?
BMI's Cote d`Ivoire country Risk Index evaluates the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.
Political Outlook Contents
- SWOT Analysis for the Cote d`Ivoire Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Cote d`Ivoire.
- Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Index assesses explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest positioning and trends for Cote d`Ivoire's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
- Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.
- Long-Term Political Outlook BMI examines the structural risks to the stability of Cote d`Ivoire’s political system and the dominant public policy issues likely to affect decision-makers, and outlines scenarios for how the state could evolve in the medium to long term.
- Benchmark Cote d`Ivoire's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
- Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
- Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.
What are the current operational risks and difficulties associated with doing business in Cote d`Ivoire?
The Operational Risk section gives an evaluation of current risks and difficulties associated with operating in the market. It also provides a brief overview of the regional Operational Risk Index which benchmarks Cote d`Ivoire against its neighbours.
Operational Risk Contents
The chapter provides a summary of the main threats in the country, within:
- Labour Market Risk (Education; Availability of Labour; and Labour Costs)
- Logistics Risk (Market Size and Utilities; Quality and Extent of the Transport Governance)
- Trade and Investment Risk (Economic Openness; Government Intervention; and Legal Risks)
- Crime and Security Risk (Crime; Terrorism; and Interstate Conflict risks).
The report also drills down in greater depth to address key issues in one of the following segments most critical to the market:
- Transport network, economic openness, cost and availability of labour, crime risks, bureaucratic environment, market size and utilities, and interstate conflict.
- Assess your company’s exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using BMI’s insight on the current dangers of operating in the market.
- Evaluate Cote d`Ivoire’s risk profile against its regional peers, helping you understand the market’s strengths and weaknesses in relation to other countries.