Cote d'Ivoire Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

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  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Cote d'Ivoire Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views:

  • Cote d'Ivoire remains our top Sub-Saharan African (SSA) growth pick in 2016, when the 8.7% real GDP expansion we anticipate will outstrip the 7.8% growth we predict in our second-placed growth market, Ethiopia. Cote d'Ivoire stands out as offering serious growth potential on an increasingly stable and diversified base. The country is generating major investor interest and has been a popular topic of discussion in BMI's meetings with clients over the past 12 months.

  • We project that Cote d'Ivoire's budget deficit will come in narrowly in 2016, despite an expansionary budget which is expected to see spending rise by over 11%. Strong economic growth and an increase in revenues will combine to ensure that the deficit does not become unmanageable, despite, at 3.4% of GDP, being wider than usual - the average deficit over the decade to 2015 was 2.4%.

  • We project that Cote d'Ivoire's current account deficit will widen over the next several years, thanks to a combination of falling cocoa prices and strong capital goods imports related to rising investment. Nevertheless, the shortfall will not exceed 3.5%, and if anything a wider current account deficit is a positive for Cote d'Ivoire at present, as productive imports will help boost economic growth in the years to come.

  • The issuance of a French arrest warrant for the speaker of Cote d'Ivoire's parliament, Guillaume Soro, has raised questions regarding the state of Ivorian politics in the wake of the October 2015 elections. Namely, has there been a 'victors' justice' in the country over the past five years, and will the newfound peace hold during the 2020 presidential elections.

Key Risks:

  • Our broad outlook is dependent on the maintenance of a stable political situation that allows for significant levels of foreign investment and the implementation of the government's reform and development plans. Such stability is not a certainty, however, and for this reason ethnic and political tensions pose the key risk to the country's economic prospects.

  • The economy's reliance on cocoa exports means that poor weather could seriously damage exports.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Cote dIvoire 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 8.5 9.0 8.7 8.6
Nominal GDP, USDbn 34.6 31.9 34.5 39.7
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 0.9 1.4 2.6 2.6
Exchange rate XOF/USD, eop 542.11 624.72 596.32 570.40
Budget balance, % of GDP -1.9 -3.4 -3.2 -3.3
Current account balance, % of GDP -0.3 -1.4 -2.1 -2.8
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
A Good News Story In 2016
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
10
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
11
Lower Taxes Will Counterintuitively Support Expansionary Budget
11
Structural Fiscal Position
12
External Trade & Investment Outlook
13
Current Account Deficit Will Widen As Investment Picks Up
13
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
13
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
15
Monetary Policy
16
UEMOA Policy Rate Will Be Maintained Through 2016
16
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS IN 2014
16
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS IN 2014
16
Monetary Policy Framework
17
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
19
The Ivorian Economy To 2025
19
A Bright Decade Ahead, But Fragilities To Persist
19
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
19
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
21
SWOT Analysis
21
BMI Political Risk Index
21
Domestic Politics
22
'Victors' Justice' In C-te d'Ivoire Potential Flashpoint Ahead Of 2020 Vote
22
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
22
Long-Term Political Outlook
23
Post-Conflict Challenges To Linger
23
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
27
SWOT Analysis
27
Operational Risk Index
27
Operational Risk
28
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
28
Trade Procedures And Governance
29
TABLE: IMPORT AND EXPORT DOCUMENTS
29
TABLE: TRADE PROCEDURES BREAKDOWN
29
TABLE: SSA - TRADE PROCEDURES AND GOVERNANCE
30
Vulnerability To Crime
31
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
35
Global Macro Outlook
35
Unfinished Business In 2016
35
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
35
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
36
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
36
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
37
TABLE: COTE D`IVOIRE - MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
39

Assess your risk exposure in Cote d`Ivoire with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Cote d`Ivoire with confidence.

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