BMI View: W e revised down our forecast for Croatia's consumer electronics market in the Q415 update to capture the negative impact of kuna depreciation on device sales in a market where consumer confidence was already very fragile after recession 2008-2014. We now forecast a decline in market value in US dollar terms of 16% in 2015, and although the market is expected to return to growth from 2017 this will be insufficient to offset the decline in 2015-2016, meaning total spending in 2019 is forecast to remain below the 2014 level for the duration of our forecast. BMI expects big-ticket items such as TVs and PCs to again be hardest hit by the economic challenges facing Croatia, leaving the handset market as the outperforming sub-segment in 2015 and over the medium term . There are however areas of opportunity, particularly from 2017, as vendors will be better positioned to tap into comparatively low penetra tion rates in device categories including tablets, hybrid notebooks, smartphones, smart TVs and UHD TV sets .
Headline Expenditure Projections
Computer Hardware Sales: USD385mn in 2014 to USD310mn in 2015. Kuna depreciation in 2015 will result in deferred purchases and the substitution for cheaper models, meaning the value decline will exceed that for PC volumes. Another drag on market value is the shift in sales towards cheaper tablets, which have lower average selling prices compared to the notebook units being cannibalised.
AV Sales: USD211mn in 2014 to USD169mn in 2015. AV market growth trend already weak due to TV market saturation and digital camera cannibalisation, trends that will be exacerbated by kuna depreciation.
Handset Sales: USD264mn in 2014 to USD243mn in 2015. BMI forecasts an 8.0% decline in value in 2015, but even so the handset market is expected to fare better in a challenging macro environment due to lower average selling prices and more inelastic demand for replacement puchases.
|Kuna Depreciation A Major Drag...|
The Croatia Consumer Electronics Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data covering both the manufacture and sale of consumer electronics products, critically analysing - and forecasting - the market dynamics affecting each sub-sector, including audio-visual, computers, mobile handsets, gaming and automotives electronics. Furthermore, the report analyses the domestic and global economic trends driving device demand and provides company rankings and competitive landscapes covering leading multinational and national consumer electronics companies and analysis of latest industry news and trends in Croatia.
BMI Research's Croatia Consumer Electronics Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the consumer electronics industry in Croatia.
- Benchmark BMI's independent consumer electronics industry forecasts for Croatia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Croatian consumer electronics market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Croatia through our reviews of latest industry trends and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit the latest competitive intelligence with company SWOT analyses.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering consumer electronics, major investments and projects.
Consumer Electronics Market
Analysis of the size of the domestic market for electronics products, with in-depth assessment and data covering the dynamics driving each sub-sector; audio-visual, computers, mobile phone handsets and gaming devices, as well as demand for automotives electronics.
Analysis and data of the domestic electronics manufacturing sector. We assess the regulatory and business operational issues facing manufacturers - including openness to foreign investment, infrastructure, IP issues and the global demand context - and their impact on the production of electronics goods, which is again broken down via market sub-sectors.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecast, covering computers, communications and gaming devices. Indicators include:
Industry value (US$bn); population (mn); nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita, industrial production Index (% y-o-y ave.) unemployment % of labour force.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Consumer Electronics Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors and participants in the regional consumer electronics market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.