BMI View: We maintain a modestly subdued outlook for the Croatian consumer electronics market in our Q1 16 report update. We revised downwards ou r projections of the market in the Q415 report to capture the n egative impacts of the kun a depreciation against the US dollar. In 2016, we believe the market will begin to stabilize and recover from the negative shocks of 2015. This year, the market will contract by a modest -0.4% before returning to positive growth in 2017 and beyond. There are however areas of opportunity, particularly from 2017, as vendors will be better positioned to tap into comparatively low penetra tion rates in device categories including tablets, hybrid notebooks, smartphones, smart TVs and UHD TV sets .
Headline Expenditure Projections
Computer Hardware Sales: USD310mn in 2015 to USD299mn in 2016. Kuna depreciation in 2015/16 will result in deferred purchases and the substitution for cheaper models, meaning the value decline will exceed that for PC volumes. Another drag on market value is the shift in sales towards cheaper tablets, which have lower average selling prices compared to the notebook units being cannibalised.
AV Sales: USD169mn in 2015 to USD166mn in 2016. AV market growth trend already weak due to TV market saturation and digital camera cannibalisation, trends that will be exacerbated by kuna depreciation.
Handset Sales: USD243mn in 2015 to USD254mn in 2016. BMI forecasts a 4.5% growth in value in 2016, but even so the handset market is expected to fare better in a challenging macro environment due to lower average selling prices and more inelastic demand for replacement purchases.
|Kuna Depreciation A Major Drag In 2015|
|Consumer Electronics Spending By Segment|
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI|
The Croatia Consumer Electronics Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data covering both the manufacture and sale of consumer electronics products, critically analysing - and forecasting - the market dynamics affecting each sub-sector, including audio-visual, computers, mobile handsets, gaming and automotives electronics. Furthermore, the report analyses the domestic and global economic trends driving device demand and provides company rankings and competitive landscapes covering leading multinational and national consumer electronics companies and analysis of latest industry news and trends in Croatia.
BMI Research's Croatia Consumer Electronics Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the consumer electronics industry in Croatia.
- Benchmark BMI's independent consumer electronics industry forecasts for Croatia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Croatian consumer electronics market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Croatia through our reviews of latest industry trends and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit the latest competitive intelligence with company SWOT analyses.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering consumer electronics, major investments and projects.
Consumer Electronics Market
Analysis of the size of the domestic market for electronics products, with in-depth assessment and data covering the dynamics driving each sub-sector; audio-visual, computers, mobile phone handsets and gaming devices, as well as demand for automotives electronics.
Analysis and data of the domestic electronics manufacturing sector. We assess the regulatory and business operational issues facing manufacturers - including openness to foreign investment, infrastructure, IP issues and the global demand context - and their impact on the production of electronics goods, which is again broken down via market sub-sectors.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecast, covering computers, communications and gaming devices. Indicators include:
Industry value (US$bn); population (mn); nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita, industrial production Index (% y-o-y ave.) unemployment % of labour force.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Consumer Electronics Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors and participants in the regional consumer electronics market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.