BMI View: We expect to see growth in all freight modes in 2016 as benefits from joining the EU in 2013 continue to materialise, such as increased export volumes with other members and infrastructure development funded by the union. The oil importing country is also benefiting from sustained low oil prices which are decreasing operational costs across all freight modes.
Total trade will increase by 2.2% y-o-y in 2016 and by an average of 2.8% over the 2016-2019 period. Exports to European Union members have improved while a slower recovery is expected for imports. Domestic consumption is restrained by high unemployment but low inflation rates are encouraging as they increase buying power.
Road freight will continue to be the mode most used in terms of tonnes transported while manufactured goods will remain the product category most trade in terms of value with fuels coming second. Highest average y-o-y growth over the medium term is expected in exports of ores and metals (12.3%) while for road will be the freight mode with most growth at 4.4%.Real GDP growth was positive in 2015 in Croatia for the first time year since 2008 and over the medium term we forecast this to average 1.7%. Also important we project positive average GDP growth for Croatia's major trade partners in the 2016-2019 period: Austria (1.7%), Bosnia & Herzegovina (3.0%), Germany (1.6%), Slovenia (2.3%), Russia (1.7%), Italy (0.9%). Unemployment will remain high in Croatia falling only to 15.5% in 2019 from 16.5% in 2016 partly due to emigration limiting domestic consumer spending.
Headline Industry Data
2016 Air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 15%.
2016 Rail freight is forecast to grow by 2.13%.
2016 Port of Rijeka throughput is forecast to grow by 2.8%.
2016 Road freight is forecast to grow by 3.27%.
2016 Inland waterway freight is forecast to grow by 0.3%.
2016 Total real trade growth is forecast at 2.2%.
Key Industry Trends
HZ Infrastruktura Selects Contractor For Rail Project: The USD225mn contract for upgrading the 38.2km railway section connecting Zagreb with Koprivnica was agreed in October 2015 and includes upgrading bridges, substations and eliminating level crossings accommodating rail freight growth. The project will run from 2016 to 2019.
The European Investment Bank Funds Airport Upgrade: USD19.9mn are provided by the EIB to expand and upgrade Dubrovnik Airport aimed to cater for future growth in air traffic and will be executed during 2015-2019 allowing for passenger traffic to grow as well as air freight.
Motorway Operator Receives Loan for State Roads: State owned Hrvatske Ceste received a USD106mn loan in September 2015 from the Croatian Bank for Reconstruction and Development to build new state roads. This is important for road freight as it includes a south bypass of Osijek and the Popovec-Marija Bistrica-Zabok expressway.
Croatian Airlines Expanding Fleet: The Croatian flag carrier has confirmed the order of four new A320neo aircraft in October 2015. These will increase average capacity and decrease operating costs of the fleet and will be delivered in 2021 and 2022 offering a long term upside to air freight.
Key Risks T o Outlook
BMI highlights freight modes exposed to the transport of containers as the forecast areas which have moderate risk to the downside as it is these modes of transport which will be affected by the decrease of container volumes driven by the country's household consumption. With high (around 16%) unemployment and anaemic wage growth, household disposable incomes will remain under pressure for some time, constraining consumer confidence and spending. Both a downside and an upside risk to our forecasts come from Croatia's high reliance on export demand.
The Croatia Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
BMI Research's Croatia Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Croatian freight transport and logistics industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Croatia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Croatian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Croatia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:
- Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
- Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
- Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
- Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
- Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)
Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.
Industry Trends and Developments
Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.
Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.