BMI View: Croatia's upstream oil and gas sector has benefitted from interest among international oil companies over recent quarters, however contested maritime boundaries and regulatory uncertainty due to opposition to hydrocarbons exploration remain key threats to the sector. A positive decision on the proposed Krk liquefied natural gas terminal would have a significant impact on the local sector, resulting in increased gas imports and strengthening Croatia's role as regional energy hub.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: BMI, EIA|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||16.2||14.2||13.9||13.6||13.3||13.1||12.8|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||1.8||1.7||1.7||1.6||1.6||1.5||1.5|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||2.5||2.3||2.4||2.4||2.4||2.5||2.5|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||82.8||83.6||84.5||85.3||86.2||87.0||87.9|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||75.1||73.6||73.1||72.9||73.2||73.9||74.7|
The main trends and developments in Croatia's oil and gas sector are:
In September 2015, the Croatian government announced it would delay signing contracts for licences won during previous bidding rounds until after elections in November. The delay demonstrates the political and regulatory challenges facing investors in Croatia, where public opposition to hydrocarbons development remains a key source of risk. Regardless of the outcome of the vote, even with support at the highest levels of government, growing environmental activism will leave the sector and investors vulnerable to further delay and disruption.
Onshore and offshore licensing rounds in 2014 and 2015 have attracted interest from international oil companies, and sustained upstream investment is necessary to reverse the current trend of declining reserves and production. However, in addition to environmental opposition, contested maritime boundaries present further obstacles to investment. The energy ministry confirmed that OMV and Marathon relinquished offshore blocks in response to a maritime boundary dispute with Montenegro.
The downstream sector also faces uncertainty. Despite recent investment, and improved margins on the back of lower feedstock prices as a result of a decline in global oil prices, the Croatian government and MOL, the main downstream company, have clashed repeatedly over the outlook for Croatia's refining sector, which is considered uncompetitive. The profitability and sustainability of the domestic refining sector remains uncertain.
The proposed Krk LNG project continues to progress, a decision on the regasification terminal is still expected in mid-2016. A positive investment decision could see the project come online mid-2019 and would increase Croatia's importance in meeting regional energy demand.
The Croatia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Croatia including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Croatia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Croatian oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Croatia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Croatian oil and gas market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Croatian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Croatia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:
- Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
- Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
- Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.
BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook
Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.
The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.