Croatia Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Croatia Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Croatia's upstream oil and gas sector has benefitted from interest among international oil companies over recent quarters, however contested maritime boundaries and regulatory uncertainty due to opposition to hydrocarbons exploration remain key threats to the sector. A positive decision on the proposed Krk liquefied natural gas terminal would have a significant impact on the local sector, resulting in increased gas imports and strengthening Croatia's role as regional energy hub.

Headline Forecasts (Croatia 2013-2019)
2013e 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
f = BMI forecast. Source: BMI, EIA
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 16.2 14.2 13.9 13.6 13.3 13.1 12.8
Dry natural gas production, bcm 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5
Refined products production, 000b/d 82.8 83.6 84.5 85.3 86.2 87.0 87.9
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 75.1 73.6 73.1 72.9 73.2 73.9 74.7
Brent, USD/bbl 108.70 99.50 55.00 54.00 53.00 60.00 64.00

The main trends and developments in Croatia's oil and gas sector are:

  • In September 2015, the Croatian government announced it would delay signing contracts for licences won during previous bidding rounds until after elections in November. The delay demonstrates the political and regulatory challenges facing investors in Croatia, where public opposition to hydrocarbons development remains a key source of risk. Regardless of the outcome of the vote, even with support at the highest levels of government, growing environmental activism will leave the sector and investors vulnerable to further delay and disruption.

  • Onshore and offshore licensing rounds in 2014 and 2015 have attracted interest from international oil companies, and sustained upstream investment is necessary to reverse the current trend of declining reserves and production. However, in addition to environmental opposition, contested maritime boundaries present further obstacles to investment. The energy ministry confirmed that OMV and Marathon relinquished offshore blocks in response to a maritime boundary dispute with Montenegro.

  • The downstream sector also faces uncertainty. Despite recent investment, and improved margins on the back of lower feedstock prices as a result of a decline in global oil prices, the Croatian government and MOL, the main downstream company, have clashed repeatedly over the outlook for Croatia's refining sector, which is considered uncompetitive. The profitability and sustainability of the domestic refining sector remains uncertain.

  • The proposed Krk LNG project continues to progress, a decision on the regasification terminal is still expected in mid-2016. A positive investment decision could see the project come online mid-2019 and would increase Croatia's importance in meeting regional energy demand.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Croatia 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Latest Updates
11
Structural Trends
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Croatia 2013-2018)
14
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Croatia 2019-2024)
14
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Croatia 2013-2018)
15
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Croatia 2013-2018)
15
Upstream Production - Oil
16
Latest Updates
16
Structural Trends
16
Table: Oil Production (Croatia 2013-2018)
18
Table: Oil Production (Croatia 2019-2024)
18
Upstream Production - Gas
18
Latest Updates
18
Structural Trends
18
Table: Gas Production (Croatia 2013-2018)
20
Table: Gas Production (Croatia 2019-2024)
20
Refining
21
Latest Updates
21
Structural Trends
21
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Croatia 2013-2018)
23
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Croatia 2019-2024)
23
Refined Fuels Consumption
24
Latest Updates
24
Structural Trends
24
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Croatia 2013-2018)
26
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Croatia 2019-2024)
26
Gas Consumption
26
Latest Updates
26
Structural Trends
26
Table: Gas Consumption (Croatia 2013-2018)
28
Table: Gas Consumption (Croatia 2019-2024)
28
Trade - Oil
28
Latest Updates
28
Structural Trends
28
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Croatia 2013-2019)
29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Croatia 2019-2024)
30
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Croatia 2013-2018)
30
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Croatia 2019-2024)
30
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Croatia 2013-2018)
31
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Croatia 2019-2024)
32
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
33
Latest Updates
33
Structural Updates
33
Table: Gas Net Exports (Croatia 2013-2018)
35
Table: Gas Net Exports (Croatia 2019-2024)
35
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
36
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
36
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward
36
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index
37
Upstream: China Still The Target Market
37
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index
40
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market
40
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index
42
Croatia - Risk/Reward Index
43
Market Overview
45
Croatia Energy Market Overview
45
Regulatory Structure
45
Fiscal Regime
46
Table: Croatia - Upstream Tax Regime
46
Licensing Regime
46
Table: Croatia - Contracts and Licensing Regime
46
Licensing Rounds
46
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
48
Oil Refineries
48
Table: Oil Refineries In Croatia
48
Oil Storage Facility
48
Oil Terminals/Ports
49
Table: Croatia Oil Terminals & Ports
49
LNG
49
Table: Existing and Planned LNG Terminals
49
Table: Croatia - Gas Storage Terminal
49
Gas Pipeline
49
Table: Croatia - Natural Gas Pipeline
49
Crude Oil Pipelines
50
Table: Croatia - Crude Oil Pipelines
50
Competitive Landscape
51
Competitive Landscape Summary
51
Table: Key Players In Croatian Energy Sector
53
Table: Key Upstream Players
53
Table: Key Downstream Players
53
Company Profile
54
Industrija Nafte
54
Jadranski Naftovod
58
Eni
62
Other Summaries
65
Regional Overview
67
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Regional Overview
67
Oil Production: Caspian Remains Centre Of Growth
67
Oil Consumption: Fuels Demand Gradually Strengthening
68
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Over Capacity Additions
69
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up To Feed Red Dragon
70
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions
71
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies
72
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Production & Consumption, Refining Capacity & Trade
73
Glossary
75
Table: Glossary Of Terms
75
Methodology
77
Industry Forecast Methodology
77
Source
79
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
79
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
81
Table: Weighting
82

The Croatia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Croatia including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Croatia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Croatian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Croatia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Croatian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Croatian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Croatia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.