BMI View: Croatia announced an indefinite delay to offshore oil exploration, a move which reinforces the already bearish outlook for reserves and production. A delay in the signing of contracts for onshore exploration, which the government has said it continues to support, further underscore s the regulatory uncertainty facing upstream investors. The outlook for a proposed liquefied natural gas ( LNG ) terminal remains positive ; a decision on it is likely in 2016.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National sources, BMI|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||14.2||13.9||13.4||13.0||12.5||12.1||11.7|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||83.7||84.5||85.3||86.2||87.0||87.9||88.8|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||88.9||138.9||355.9||1,298.9||5,425.1||23,477.3||102,601.5|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||1.7||1.7||1.6||1.6||1.5||1.5||1.4|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||2.3||2.4||2.4||2.4||2.5||2.5||2.6|
The main trends and developments in Croatia's oil and gas sector are:
Oil and gas agency CHA announced in April an indefinite delay to the award of outstanding offshore blocks. The decision highlights political and environmental opposition to offshore oil and gas exploration in the Adriatic. The prospects for offshore drilling in the near term are remote and the moratorium will weigh on the long-term outlook for liquids reserves and production.
The government has signalled it could support offshore exploration for gas, though a lack of regulatory clarity remains a concern. Bidders in Croatia's only offshore drilling round in 2015 also indicated a preference for gas- rather than oil-prone acreage, suggesting it may be more difficult to attract investment with a ban on exploration for liquids offshore.
Croatian officials have indicated strong backing for a LNG at Krk, with a final investment decision on the project possible at some point in 2016. We have included the terminal in our forecasts given support from both Croatia and the EU, though we note reports from April suggest the a floating LNG rather than onshore plant as initially thought may be developed.
The government has signalled it wants to revive negotiations with Hungarian energy group MOL on Croatian oil and gas company INA. Tensions between the government and MOL have led to uncertainty over the future of Croatia's two refineries. No talks have been held for two years and the government had, as of April, yet to appoint a team to lead the discussions, though an easing of tensions between the two parties could provide clarity as to the long-term outlook for Croatia's downstream sector.
Weak economic growth continues to constrain demand for refined fuels even as demand in the other markets in the region rises. The long-term prospects for the consumption of refined fuels remains weak given the economy and small size of the local market.
The Croatia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Croatia including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Croatia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Croatian oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Croatia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Croatian oil and gas market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Croatian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Croatia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:
- Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
- Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
- Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.
BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook
Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.
The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.