Croatia Oil & Gas Report

Published 21 August 2015

  • 113 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Croatia Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Contested maritime borders have emerged as major source of uncertainty for Croatia's nascent offshore oil and gas sector. Tensions over borders and weak global prices, will weigh on the outlook for investment in Croatia's prospective but unproven offshore acreage. A positive investment decision on the proposed Krk liquefied natural gas (LNG) import terminal could boost demand for gas and see Croatia develop into regional supply hub.

Headline Forecasts (Croatia 2013-2019)
2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
f = BMI forecast. Source: BMI, EIA
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 16.2 14.2 13.9 13.6 13.3 13.1 12.8
Dry natural gas production, bcm 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 82.8 83.6 84.5 85.3 86.2 87.0 87.9
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 84.1 83.3 83.2 83.9 84.9 86.5 88.2

The main trends and developments in Croatia's oil and gas sector are:

  • There is also concern about the impact of a maritime boundary dispute with Montenegro. Croatian Prime Minister Zoran Milanovic warned the unsettled boundary could deter investors. In July 2015, OMV and Marathon handed back offshore blocks awarded just months earlier by Croatian officials. The energy ministry confirmed the companies withdrew largely as a result of concerns over the border dispute with Montenegro. Three of seven blocks awarded during the offshore round lie in contested waters.

  • Croatian authorities announced plans for another offshore bidding round in September 2015, but given expectations for global oil prices to remain weak will likely weigh on interest in Croatia's prospective but unproven offshore acreage. Continued territorial disputes are also likely to undermine Croatia's ability to attract investors.

  • In July...

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Croatia 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil And Gas Reserves (Croatia 2013-2018)
11
Table: Proven Oil And Gas Reserves (Croatia 2019-2024)
11
Table: Croatia 2014 Offshore Bidding Round Results
14
Upstream Production - Oil
15
Table: Oil Production (Croatia 2013-2018)
15
Table: Oil Production (Croatia 2019-2024)
15
Upstream Production - Gas
17
Table: Gas Production (Croatia 2013-2018)
17
Table: Gas Production (Croatia 2019-2024)
17
Refining
20
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Croatia 2013-2018)
20
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Croatia 2019-2024)
20
Refined Fuels Consumption
23
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Croatia 2013-2018)
23
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Croatia 2019-2024)
23
Gas Consumption
25
Table: Gas Consumption (Croatia 2013-2018)
25
Table: Gas Consumption (Croatia 2019-2024)
25
Trade - Oil
28
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Croatia 2013-2018)
28
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Croatia 2019-2024)
28
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Croatia 2013-2018)
29
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Croatia 2019-2024)
30
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Croatia 2013-2018)
31
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Croatia 2019-2024)
32
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
33
Table: Gas Net Exports (Croatia 2013-2018)
33
Table: Gas Net Exports (Croatia 2019-2024)
33
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
37
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
37
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward
37
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index
38
Upstream: Sending Gas To China
38
Regional Minnows Holding Up
40
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index
41
Downstream: Turkish Star Shines In Weak Market
41
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index
42
Croatia - Risk/Reward Index
44
Market Overview
46
Croatia Energy Market Overview
46
Overview/State Role
47
Licensing And Regulation
48
Government Policy
48
International Energy Relations
49
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
50
Oil Refineries
50
Table: Refineries In Croatia
50
Filling Stations
51
Oil Pipelines
51
LNG Terminals
51
Gas Storage Facilities
51
Gas Pipelines
52
Competitive Landscape
53
Competitive Landscape Summary
53
Table: Key Players In Croatian Energy Sector
54
Table: Key Upstream Players
55
Table: Key Downstream Players
55
Company Profile
56
Industrija Nafte
56
Jadranski Naftovod
61
Eni
65
Other Summaries
68
Regional Overview
70
Central and Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Regional Overview
70
Oil Production: Caspian Leads Growth
70
Oil Consumption: Regional Demand Increasing
71
Refining Capacity: Outlook Remains Weak
72
Natural Gas Production: Ramping-Up For 2020 Targets
73
Gas Consumption: Soft Demand Supports Exports
74
Global Industry Overview
76
Oil Price Outlook
76
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus Forecasts* WTI And Brent, Front Month - USD/bbl
76
Table: 2015-2016 - Fundamental Pressure On Oil Prices
77
Appendix
84
Croatia - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-Year Forecasts
84
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Croatia 2013-2018)
84
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Croatia 2019-2024)
84
Croatia - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts
85
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Croatia 2013-2018)
85
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Croatia 2019-2024)
86
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Croatia 2013-2018)
87
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Croatia 2019-2024)
88
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Croatia 2013-2018)
89
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Croatia 2019-2024)
90
Central And Eastern Europe - Regional Appendix
91
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
91
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
93
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
93
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
94
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
95
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
95
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
96
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
97
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
97
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
98
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
99
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
99
Glossary
101
Table: Glossary Of Terms
101
Methodology
103
Industry Forecast Methodology
103
Source
105
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
105
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
107
Table: Weighting
108

The Croatia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Croatia including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Croatia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Croatian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Croatia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Croatian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Croatian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Croatia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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