BMI View: The dire macroeconomic situation, rising public debt levels , falling consumption levels and low investor confidence are all factors hinting towards a bleak 2015 for the commercial real estate market. Continuously falling demand, despite few new developments in the pipeline, is expected to lead to stagnating rent s in all commercial sub-sectors in two of our three monitored cities over the next 24 months . Net yields will decline across the sub-sectors.in two of our three cities, with only Zadar expected to post positive movement.
Rising public debt, a problematic situation in the financial sector and negative economic growth are keeping a tight hold of Croatia, more than a year into its EU membership. Greater access to EU funds has so far not been translated into growth. In contrast, expectations that the country will require an IMF/EU bailout in 2015 are becoming more realistic. For 2014, our Country Risk team is expecting negative growth of 0.7%, while 2015 will see little economic recovery with current expectations forecasting 0.6% growth. The Croatian business environment remains towards the bottom of the EU, only slightly superior to basement-dwelling Greece.
With the dire macroeconomic situation continuing, consumer confidence and private spending remain in the negative, with foreign investors becoming increasingly sceptical. As demand for commercial real estate space stagnates and falls, the fact that few developments are in the pipeline must at least be considered a stabilising factor for rents and yields. Nonetheless, we see both slightly decreasing over the course of the next two years in all sectors. The turning of office space into retail properties in some Croatian cities can only re-balance the supply-demand environment for so long, especially considering that demand for retail space is wavering, despite strong growth in tourism.
Overall, much will depend on governmental reform, the translation of EU funds into actual growth and the implications of a potential IMF/EU bailout. Our expectations for 2015 therefore remain highly sceptical in light of these severe challenges. Low rental yields and uncertainty on capital appreciation in the near future is deterring contemporary investments, providing little relief for the market in the short-term.
Key BMI Forecasts
With a background macroeconomic situation of negative economic growth, decreasing consumer spending and increasing unemployment and public debt, our outlook for 2015 remains bleak for the commercial real estate market.
In the office, retail and industrial sector, Zadar is the only city for which we foresee an increase in rents and yields over our forecast period, with both other cities seeing decreases in all sectors.
The Croatia Real Estate Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts of major construction projects in the residential and commercial markets, plus rental prices and yields in major cities. The report critically analyses the prospects for real estate within the broader economic and financial context - both domestic and global - via our econometrically-modelled and clearly explained banking and economic forecasts and follows this through to evaluate the implications for REITs.
BMI's Croatia Real Estate Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the real estate industry in Croatia.
- Benchmark BMI's independent real estate industry forecasts for Croatia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Croatian real estate market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Croatia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our company profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering real estate and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the real estate sector and within the broader political, financial, economic and business environment.
Industry Forecasts Outlook
Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for the domestic real estate industry and for the local and global finance industry.
- Real Estate: Office, retail and industrial real estate yields for all major cities (%); short term forecasts on minimum and maximum real estate rental prices by sub-sector (USD per square metre and local currency per square metre).
- Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); employment (‘000); real growth (%).
- economy: Economic growth (%); nominal GDP (USDbn); unemployment (%); interest rates (%); exchange rate (against USD).
BMI’s Real Estate Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (real estate vendors, construction companies and financial investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Overview of the real estate sector, including analysis of existing/planned real estate developments and emerging industry trends in the office, industrial and commercial sectors
Features detailed city-level data and analysis on rental prices, yields, contract terms and real estate availability with separate chapters covering the office, retail and industrial sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.