Croatia Shipping Report

Published 09 March 2015

  • 85 pages
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$1,295.00
Croatia Shipping Report

BMI View: Activity at the main Croatian ports in 2015 will be mixed, with container traffic growing in a 3%-5% range, while bulk tonnage will fall at two ports, Rijeka and Sibenik, but will register a small improvement at Ploce. The reason for this disparate performance will be the weak state of the domestic economy and the country' s poor foreign trade showing. After estimated strong growth in 2014, we expect foreign trade to contract again in 2015.

We have downgraded our forecast for Croatian GDP growth in 2015 to 0.1%, down from +0.4% previously. In other words, the economy will be virtually at a standstill after six years of recession. This rather grim outlook reflects the lack of sustainable growth drivers, and the absence of structural reforms needed to tackle high labour costs and poor export competitiveness.

Devaluation would help, but a dollarised loan book means the central bank opposes such a course of action, and will keep the kuna in a managed float against the euro. As a result, economic adjustment will have to come through a slow and painful process of internal devaluation. In the meantime, domestic consumption is held back by high unemployment, while government spending is restrained by the high public debt load (debt represents over 80% of GDP). Exports are also struggling because of competitiveness issues. We forecast that growth will pick up weakly to 0.9% in 2016, and will average a disappointing 1.3% a year in the five years to 2019.

Headline Industry Data

  • In 2015 port of Rijeka tonnage volume will contract by 3.0% to 9.482mn tonnes, after 12.3% growth in 2014. Over the medium term to 2019 we project average annual growth of 0.7%.

  • Container throughput at Rijeka in 2015 forecast to grow 5.2% to 139,551 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs). Over the medium term we project a strong average annual increase of 7.0%, significantly ahead of GDP.

  • 2015 total trade forecast to fall by 3.4% in real terms, following growth of 14.1% in 2014.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
5
SWOT
7
Shipping
7
Political
8
Economic
9
Business Environment
10
Industry Forecast
11
Port Of Rijeka Throughput
11
Table: Major Ports Data (Croatia 2011-2018)
16
Table: Trade Overview (Croatia 2011-2018)
17
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Croatia 2011-2018)
17
Table: Top Import Partners, 2004-2012
18
Table: Top Export Destinations, 2004-2012
19
Market Overview
20
Croatia Container Shipping Market Overview
20
Industry Trends And Developments
26
Shipping - Global Industry View
28
Container Demand:
28
Container Supply:
36
Container Rates:
42
Global Company Strategy
45
Maersk Line
45
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
55
CMA CGM
62
Evergreen Line
73
COSCO Container Lines Company (COSCON)
80
Macroeconomic Forecasts
87
Croatia- Recovery To Lag Behind Europe
87
Table: Economic Activity (Croatia 2009-2018)
92
Demographic Forecast
93
Demographic Outlook
93
Table: Croatia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
94
Table: Croatia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
95
Table: Croatia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
96
Table: Croatia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
96

The Croatia Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and BMI Research's independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Croatia.

BMI's Croatia Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Croatia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Croatia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Croatian shipping market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Croatia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Market Overview

Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.

Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).

Company Profiles

Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc