Czech Republic Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Czech Republic Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: T he Czech Republic will remain highly dependent on imported oil and gas, mostly from Russia, as conventional hydrocarbons production potential is limited. However the country will manage to slowly diversify its gas sources through the STORK II project linking the country to Poland. This will provide it with access to Polish gas and imported LNG from the Swinoujscie LNG terminal.

Headline Forecasts (Czech Republic 2014-2020)
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 7.0 6.8 6.6 6.5 6.3 6.1 6.0
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 8.5 8.5 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.7 8.9
Refined products production, 000b/d 160.0 166.4 161.4 161.7 162.1 162.4 162.5
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 205.3 211.5 214.9 217.4 219.2 220.0 220.9
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 42.50 53.00 55.00 60.00 67.00

The main trends and developments we highlight for the Czech Republic's oil and gas sector are:

  • While the country's shale gas potential could be promising, a moratorium on shale gas exploration and public opposition to the practice make exploration unlikely in the near-to-medium term.

  • The Czech Republic produces negligible volumes of domestic gas or oil, with limited upside risk to future production, meaning the country will remain significantly dependent on Russian hydrocarbon imports within our forecast period.

  • The country is a small consumer of refined fuels. We forecast a relatively strong rise in refined fuels consumption over the first half of our forecast period, pulled up by the robust growth in vehicle growth and a strong industrial sector.

  • The country imports most of its required crude oil from Russia and is a small net importer of refined products. We expect the Czech Republic will continue to be largely dependent on Russian crude imports, while the country will see an increase in refined products net import requirements to answer rising domestic demand over our forecast period.

  • According to an update by Unipetrol in late 2015, current production at the Litvinov refinery continues running at a significantly reduced capacity following an explosion at the neighbouring petrochemical complex in August 2015. A return to full production is unlikely until Q316. This has therefore likely impacted H215 refined fuels production and will likely impact 2016 production. We therefore point to downside risk to our 2015 refined fuels production estimate and to our 2016 forecast. Similarly, this yields upside risk to refined fuel net imports for 2015 and 2016, and downside risks to net crude oil imports on the back of lower crude oil feedthrough.

  • The rise in gas consumption will remain modest. We maintain our forecast this quarter given our expectation that coal power generation will remain more profitable than gas power generation in the foreseeable future. This provides little incentive for a large and quick shift to gas-power generation over the coming years.

  • Despite remaining heavily dependent on Russian gas throughout our forecast period, the Czech Republic will manage to diversify its gas sources through the STORK II project linking the country to Poland. This will provide it with access to Polish gas and imported LNG from the Swinoujscie LNG terminal.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Czech Republic 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Upstream Exploration
10
Latest Updates
10
Structural Trends
10
Upstream Production - Oil
13
Table: Oil Production (Czech Republic 2014-2019)
14
Table: Oil Production (Czech Republic 2020-2025)
14
Upstream Production - Gas
15
Table: Gas Production (Czech Republic 2014-2019)
16
Table: Gas Production (Czech Republic 2020-2025)
16
Refining
17
Latest Updates
17
Structural Trends
17
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Czech Republic 2014-2019)
18
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Czech Republic 2020-2025)
19
Refined Fuels Consumption
20
Latest Updates
20
Structural Trends
20
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Czech Republic 2014-2019)
21
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Czech Republic 2020-2025)
21
Gas Consumption
22
Latest Updates
22
Structural Trends
22
Table: Gas Consumption (Czech Republic 2014-2019)
24
Table: Gas Consumption (Czech Republic 2020-2025)
24
Trade - Oil
25
Crude Trade Forecast
25
Latest Updates
25
Structural Trends
25
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Czech Republic 2014-2020)
27
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Czech Republic 2020-2025)
27
Refined Fuels Trade Forecast
27
Latest Updates
27
Structural Trends
27
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Czech Republic 2014-2019)
29
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Czech Republic 2020-2025)
29
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
30
Latest Updates
30
Structural Trends
30
Table: Gas Net Exports (Czech Republic 2014-2019)
32
Table: Gas Net Exports (Czech Republic 2020-2025)
33
Industry Risk Reward Index
34
Central And Eastern Europe - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
34
Table: Regional Risk/Reward Index Averages - High Risk, Low Reward In Central And Eastern Europe
34
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index
35
Upstream: China Still The Target Market
36
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Upstream Risk/Reward Index
38
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market
39
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Downstream Risk/Reward Index
41
Czech Republic - Risk/Reward Index
42
Czech Upstream Index - Overview
42
Czech Upstream Index - Rewards
42
Czech Upstream Index - Risks
43
Czech Downstream Index - Overview
43
Market Overview
44
Energy Market Overview
44
Regulatory Structure
44
Upstream Fiscal And Licensing Regime
44
Operational Environment
44
Political Environment
45
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
46
Oil Refineries
46
Table: Refineries In Czech Republic
46
Service Stations
46
Oil Storage Facilities
47
Oil Pipeline
47
Gas Storage Facilities
48
Gas Pipelines
49
Competitive Landscape
51
Competitive Landscape Summary
51
Table: Key Players - Czech Oil And Gas Sector
52
Table: Key Upstream Player
52
Table: Key Downstream Players
53
Company Profile
54
Shell Czech Republic
54
Unipetrol
56
Other Summaries
60
Regional Overview
64
Central And Eastern Europe Oil And Gas Regional Overview
64
Oil Production: Output Growth Stalling
64
Oil Consumption: Weak EM Growth Softens Demand
65
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Over Capacity Growth
66
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Depends On China's Hunger
67
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions
68
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies
69
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Oil And Gas Production And Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade
70
Glossary
72
Table: Glossary Of Terms
72
Methodology
74
Industry Forecast Methodology
74
Source
76
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
76
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
78
Table: Weighting
79

The Czech Republic Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Czech Republic including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Czech Republic Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Czech oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Czech Republic to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Czech oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Czech oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Czech Republic.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.