BMI View: T he Czech Republic will remain highly dependent on imported oil and gas, mostly from Russia, as conventional hydrocarbons production potential is limited. However the country will manage to slowly diversify its gas sources through the STORK II project linking the country to Poland. This will provide it with access to Polish gas and imported LNG from the Swinoujscie liquefied natural gas terminal.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast; Sources: EIA, BMI|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||7.0||6.8||6.6||6.5||6.3||6.2||6.0|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||160.0||166.4||161.4||161.7||162.1||162.4||162.5|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||204.4||210.6||213.9||216.3||220.9||225.3||229.9|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||0.3||0.2||0.2||0.2||0.2||0.2||0.2|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||7.5||7.5||7.5||7.6||7.6||7.7||7.8|
Latest Updates A nd Key Forecasts
While the country's shale gas potential could be promising, a moratorium on shale gas exploration and public opposition to the practice make exploration unlikely in the short-to-medium term.
The Czech Republic produces negligible volumes of domestic gas or oil, with limited upside risk to future production, meaning the country will remain significantly dependent on Russian hydrocarbon imports within our forecast period.
The country is a small consumer of refined fuels. We forecast a relatively strong rise in refined fuels consumption the forecast period, pulled up by the robust growth in vehicle growth and a strong industrial sector.
The country imports most of its required crude oil from Russia and is a small net importer of refined products. We expect the Czech Republic will continue to be largely dependent on Russian crude imports, while the country will see an increase in refined products net import requirements to answer rising domestic demand over our forecast period.
Current production at the Litvinov refinery continues running at a significantly reduced capacity following an explosion at the neighbouring petrochemical complex in August 2015. A return to full production is unlikely before Q316. This has likely impacted H215 refined fuels production and will likely impact 2016 production. We therefore point to downside risk to our 2015 refined fuels production estimate and to our 2016 forecast. Similarly, this yields upside risk to refined fuel net imports for 2015 and 2016, and downside risks to net crude oil imports on the back of lower crude oil feed through.
The rise in gas consumption will remain modest. We maintain our forecast this quarter given our expectation that coal power generation will remain more profitable than gas power generation in the foreseeable future. This provides little incentive for a large and quick shift to gas-power generation over the coming years.
Despite remaining heavily dependent on Russian gas throughout our forecast period, the Czech Republic will manage to diversify its gas sources through the STORK II project linking the country to Poland. This will provide it with access to Polish gas and imported LNG from the Swinoujscie LNG terminal.
At the time of writing, however, it is unclear whether the STORK II project is moving forward, and there are rumours Poland no longer considers the project to be a priority despite having secured European Union funding. Czech Industry Minister will discuss the plan with his Polish counterparts at the Krynica economic forum in September.
The Czech Republic Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Czech Republic including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Czech Republic Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Czech oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Czech Republic to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Czech oil and gas market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Czech oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Czech Republic.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
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