BMI View: Power generation growth will be mostly stagnant in Czech Republic with a decline forecast for 2020 and 2022 as the Temelin nuclear reactors are decommissioned. Thermal power will remain the dominant source of power generation to plug the deficit left b y nuclear power decommissioning, while development of non-hydropower renewables will be held back by l ack of government support for FiTs. Slow progress in getting new nuclear capacity online will result in Czech Republic becoming a net-electricity importer by the end of 2025.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources, BMI|
|Generation, Total, TWh||85.140||84.730||84.950||85.120||85.150||79.550||81.780|
|Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh||62.0||63.3||64.4||65.7||66.8||67.8||68.7|
|Capacity, Net, MW||20,654.8||20,670.9||20,716.2||20,754.3||20,806.3||20,132.1||20,511.3|
Latest Updates and Structural Trends
We expect that coal-fired capacity will remain the most utilised fuel source for power in Czech Republic. Scheduled maintenance of nuclear reactors has increased the requirement for raised thermal power output. The pending modernisation of the Prunerov power plant further underscores this view.
We have revised our nuclear power generation forecasts for Czech Republic. Despite previous flawed safety checks, all four reactors at the Dukovany nuclear plant will continue to operate post-2025. We have therefore increased our nuclear power generation forecasts for 2025 from a level of 11.3 terawatt hours (TWh) to 15.1TWh.
CEZ has announced that all four units at the Dukovany nuclear reactor will continue to operate until 2035, with plans to construct replacement units for the existing units by that time.
CEZ announced in May that it will be investing up to EUR2.2bn in renewable energy outside of Czech Republic. We believe that this is indicative of the unfavourable investment environment for renewable energy in Czech Republic, therefore we have not altered our muted forecasts for non-hydropower renewable electricity in Czech Republic.
Our transmission and distribution losses forecasts for Czech Republic remain mostly unchanged from last quarter. We expect that losses as percentage of total output will decrease from 4.7% to 3.3% over our 10-year forecast period.
While we originally forecasted that Czech Republic will become a net-electricity importer by 2025, we now expect the effect to be much more muted based on the extension of the operating licence of the Dukovany nuclear reactors as well as increased focus on thermal capacity.
The Czech Republic Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Czech Republic Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Czech Republic to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks Czech Republic's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Czech Republic.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
- Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
- Trade: Total imports and exports.
- Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
- Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.
BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.
Key Projects Database
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.
Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.
Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts
Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.
Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.
The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).