BMI View: Czech power generation will decline by an annual average of 1.4% from 2017 to 2025 as planned nuclear reactor decommissioning will not be replaced by sufficient capacity. The decline in generation will result in the country becoming a net-importer by the end of 2025. Thermal power will remain the dominant source of generation as the government focuses on supporting its domestic coal industry and CCGT capacity is utilised full-time.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources, BMI|
|Generation, Total, TWh||84.410||82.850||83.270||83.460||83.770||78.520||80.760|
|Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh||62.0||63.3||64.4||65.7||66.8||67.8||68.7|
|Capacity, Net, MW||20,654.8||20,670.9||20,716.2||20,754.3||20,806.3||20,132.1||20,511.3|
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
Our forecasts for thermal power in Czech Republic remain unchanged since last quarter. We forecast that thermal power generation will increase from a level of 45.9 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2017 to 50.9TWh in 2025, as it will be increasingly utilised to make up for the planned decommissioning of nuclear reactors.
Our views for thermal power are underlined by the fact that coal power plants such as the one at Chvaletice will reportedly undergo renovations to extend its operational lifetime.
While originally planned to restart mid-November 2016, unit 1 of the Temelin nuclear reactor will only be restarted in December 2016 after a planned outage since August 2016.
We have revised our nuclear power generation forecasts downward to account for the reactor outages lasting longer than usual. We now estimate that nuclear power generation will total 29.1 terawatt hours in 2017, as opposed to our previous forecasts of 30.7TWh.
We are maintaining our forecasts for non-hydropower renewable electricity generation since last quarter. We expect that renewable electricity generation will remain mostly stagnant, growing at a subdued pace of 0.2% over our forecast period from 2017 to 2025.
We expect that losses will remain low as further investments into transmission lines, such as the 400kV Vernerov - Vitkov line being planned for 2023.
The Czech Republic Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Czech Republic Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Czech Republic to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks Czech Republic's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Czech Republic.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
- Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
- Trade: Total imports and exports.
- Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
- Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.
BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.
Key Projects Database
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.
Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.
Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts
Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.
Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.
The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).