BMI View: This quarter o ur view on the Czech power market remains largely unchanged , while concerns over the country's energy security and carbon emissions profile move to the forefront. T he future of nuclear and renewables in the country looks increasingly uncertain as the development of sources experienced setbacks and questions about Czech energy security and its emissions profile are becoming more pronounced. With ageing domestic capacity scheduled to come offline over the coming two decades and EU regulations pressuring the country to lessen its dependence on coal, nuclear and renewables had appeared to be the preferred method to fill any future power gap. However, this is now in doubt, with the country showing inclinations to maintain an important share of coal-generated electricity in the mix. We further believe that the Czech Republic's export status could be in jeopardy as a result of a failure to build new power generation capacity.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources, BMI|
|Generation, Total, TWh||82.949||83.296||83.386||83.457||83.584||83.701||78.424|
|Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh||61.1||62.0||63.3||64.4||65.7||66.7||67.7|
|Capacity, Net, MW||20,677.9||20,834.3||21,034.0||21,244.4||21,571.0||22,033.5||21,277.6|
Key Trends And Developments
Allowing for system losses, power supply should continue to outweigh demand, enabling continued net exports to neighbouring states. This quarter, we expect Czech power generation to reach 83.30TWh in 2015 and expect it will decrease between 2015 and 2024, to reach 77.5TWh.
Czech Coal, CEZ and a partnership between EPH, and the PPF investment company are the three bidders that have expressed their interest in acquiring Vattenfall's German lignite and hydro activities. Vattenfall is divesting its German mining and generations assets as part of its strategy to transform its energy portfolio strategy shift.
The Czech Republic Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Czech Republic Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Czech Republic to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks Czech Republic's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Czech Republic.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
- Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
- Trade: Total imports and exports.
- Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
- Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.
BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.
Key Projects Database
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.
Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.
Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts
Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.
Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.
The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).