BMI View: We expect the non-hydropower renewables sector to remain stagnant over the coming decade as investor interest in the market remains subdued. C oncerns about the country's economic competiveness and previous difficulties with setting renewables s ubsidies at a sustainable level have l ed the government to scale back - and almost abandon - its pursuit of renewable energy. With cheaper fuel sources taking priority, we maintain our reserved outlook for the industry.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, National sources, BMI|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, TWh||6.120||6.150||6.160||6.170||6.180||6.190||6.200|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, % y-o-y||1.170||0.420||0.260||0.120||0.130||0.200||0.230|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, MW||3,201.2||3,220.6||3,226.0||3,229.9||3,233.6||3,240.5||3,246.3|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, % y-o-y||0.8||0.6||0.2||0.1||0.1||0.2||0.2|
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
The country aims to develop renewables to account for at least 15-16% of total energy consumption by 2030, a target we consider unachievable at present. Although the Czech Republic has made an impressive start in adopting renewable sources into its electricity mix, we believe that high levels of regulatory uncertainty in the industry and the government's apparent preference for thermal power sources will result in a much less robust expansion than in previous years. We therefore forecast that non-hydro renewables capacity will register an average annual growth rate of just 0.22% between 2016 and 2025. Non-hydro renewables generation will expand at a similarly slow rate, at 0.23% over the same time period.
Our bearish outlook on the sector stems from the uncertainty surrounding the country's feed-in-tariffs programme (FiTs), which is deterring investment into the market. The Czech Energy Regulatory Office stated in December 2015 that FiT payments would only be approved for existing non-hydropower renewable sources if the payments and renewable power sources were approved by the European Commission. As a result of the retroactive FiT cuts, renewable power plant operators face increasing financial risks. We have not yet factored this into our forecasts, as there appears to be disagreement on the FiT cuts between the Industry and Trade Minister and the head of the Czech regulator, ERU. The minister stated that a solution to the disagreement is currently being sought.
The Czech Republic Renewables Report researched at source contains BMI Research's assessment of the current renewables market in Czech Republic. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).
The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in Czech Republic, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.
The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in Czech Republic, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.
BMI's Czech Republic Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Czech Republic renewables industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for Czech Republic to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Czech Republic renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in Czech Republic, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.
These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.
Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.
These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.