Democratic Republic of Congo Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

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  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
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  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
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Democratic Republic of Congo Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views:

  • Economic growth in the Democratic Republic of the Congo will moderate slightly in 2016, as a weak commodity sector and high levels of political risk continue to weigh on the external sector. Growth will pick up in 2017 as commodity prices begin to recover, but the threat of further escalation or a prolonging of the current political crisis pose a downside risk.

  • The beginnings of a recovery in oil prices and a gradual weakening of the local currency will see a slight increase in inflation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo over the next 12 months. However, price growth will remain well within the Banque Centrale du Congo's target range of less than 5.0%, meaning interest rates will stay at 2.0%.

  • The Democratic Republic of the Congo will see its budget deficit peak in 2016, following relatively slow economic growth and low revenues from the country's mining sector as the price of copper falls further. Political turbulence will put further downward pressure on the budget as insecurity increases before a recovery in commodity prices allows for some recovery in 2017.

  • The deterioration in investor sentiment towards the Democratic Republic of the Congo will lead to a slight narrowing of the current account deficit over the second half of 2016. Even so, the persistence of low copper prices and weak production in key export sectors will limit any recovery in the country's external trade dynamics until conditions begin to improve.

  • The Democratic Republic of the Congo will continue to see widespread political instability in the approach to its presidential election. The government's delay tactics and lack of preparation mean the election will likely not go ahead as planned, but overwhelming opposition to the incumbent president, Joseph Kabila, will make another term in office impossible.

Key Risks:

  • The copper price remains well below USD5,000/tonne, forcing more mines to cease operations and make redundancies.

  • A major flare-up in violence as the 2016 elections approach worsens what is already a questionable investment climate.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Congo (Congo (DRC) 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014 2015e 2016f 2017f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources/BMI
Nominal GDP, USDbn 36.0 39.7 41.8 46.6
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 9.5 7.3 6.6 7.6
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 1.0 1.6 2.3 3.2
Exchange rate CDF/USD, eop 920.00 925.00 962.86 972.49
Budget balance, % of GDP -3.5 -4.0 -5.5 -5.3
Current account balance, % of GDP -10.1 -10.8 -10.6 -8.3
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
Growth Slows As Key Drivers Deteriorate
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
10
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
10
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
11
Budget Deficit Deepens As Government Prioritises Politics
11
Structural Fiscal Position
12
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
12
External Trade And Investment Outlook
13
Deteriorating Investor Sentiment Sees Current Account Deficit Stabilise
13
Outlook On External Position
15
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS
15
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS
15
Monetary Policy
17
Increasing Inflation Will Not Warrant Rate Hike
17
Monetary Policy Framework
18
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
19
The DRC Economy To 2025
19
Size Will Prove A Double-Edged Sword
19
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
19
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
23
SWOT Analysis
23
BMI Political Risk Index
23
Domestic Politics
24
'Third Termism' To Lead To More Unrest
24
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
24
Long-Term Political Outlook
25
Structural Weaknesses Will Prolong Instability
25
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
29
SWOT Analysis
29
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
31
Global Macro Outlook
31
Summer Of Risk
31
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
31
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
32
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
33
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
35

Assess your risk exposure in Congo, Dem. Rep. with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Congo, Dem. Rep. with confidence.

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