Democratic Republic of Congo Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

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  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Democratic Republic of Congo Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views:

  • The Democratic Republic of the Congo will experience a mild slowdown in real GDP growth in 2016 as the copper sector continues to struggle in a climate of low prices and political risk weighs heavy on investor sentiment.

  • Inflation will gently rise in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in 2016, as a widening of the current account deficit and low foreign reserves sees the local currency weaken slightly, raising the cost of imports. However, an increase in prices will be insufficient to warrant a hike in the policy rate by the Banque Centrale du Congo.

  • The budget deficit will peak in 2016 in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, as government revenues continue to suffer on the back of weakness in the copper sector. Although the law requires the government to balance its books, we believe that this year's elections will keep the public coffers firmly in the red.

  • The Democratic Republic of the Congo's current account will deepen in 2016 due to the weak outlook for its mining sector. Due to an unappetising investment climate and limited government reserves, the current account will be fuelled primarily by increasing external debt issuance by the government.

  • The outlook for political risk will deteriorate in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in 2016, as both foreign and domestic threats to stability heighten tensions and increase the likelihood of violence. Given that the likelihood of any near-term improvements in DRC's political situation is low, these destabilising dynamics risk undoing much of the progress made over the past two years.

Major Forecast Changes:

  • Political risks caused by increasing tensions surrounding the presidential election and the escalation of violence in neighbouring Burundi will likely weigh on investor sentiment towards the DRC over 2016, leading us to adjust our forecast for real GDP growth from 6.7% to 6.3%.

Key Risks:

  • The copper price remains well below USD5,000/tonne, forcing more mines to cease operations and make redundancies.

  • A major flare-up in violence as the 2016 elections approach worsens what is already a questionable investment climate.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Congo (Congo (DRC) 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014 2015e 2016f 2017f
e/f=BMI estimate/forecast. Souce: National Sources/BMI
Nominal GDP, USDbn 36.0 39.7 42.0 46.8
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 9.5 7.3 6.6 7.6
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 1.0 1.6 3.0 2.5
Exchange rate CDF/USD, eop 920.00 925.00 962.86 972.49
Budget balance, % of GDP -3.5 -4.0 -4.9 -4.0
Current account balance, % of GDP -10.1 -10.8 -11.2 -9.4
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth
8
Growth Dips On Weak Copper Sector And Political Risk
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
10
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
10
Electioneering And Commodity Slump Deepen Budget Deficit
10
Structural Fiscal Position
12
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
12
External Trade And Investment Outlook
13
Current Account Deficit Deepens Despite Limited Liquidity
13
Outlook On External Position
14
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS IN 2014
15
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS IN 2014
15
Monetary Policy
16
Inflation To Remain Manageable Despite Slight Increase
16
Monetary Policy Framework
17
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
19
The DRC Economy To 2025
19
Size Will Prove A Double-Edged Sword
19
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
19
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
23
SWOT Analysis
23
BMI Political Risk Index
23
Domestic Politics
24
Political Risk Increases On Growing Domestic And External Threats
24
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
24
Long-Term Political Risk
25
Structural Weaknesses Will Prolong Instability
25
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
29
SWOT Analysis
29
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
31
Global Macro Outlook
31
Tail Risks Mounting Amid Sub-Par Growth
31
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
31
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
32
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, 2015 AND 2016 (%)
32
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
33
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
35

Assess your risk exposure in Congo, Dem. Rep. with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Congo, Dem. Rep. with confidence.

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