Democratic Republic of Congo Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

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  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
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Democratic Republic of Congo Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views:

  • An increased likelihood of continued political risk in 2017 will keep real GDP growth below its historic trend in the Democratic Republic of the Congo over the next 18 months. Weak investment due to political instability will compound the effect of another year of low copper prices, as inflation driven by a weakening exchange rate weighs on production incentives.

  • The Democratic Republic of the Congo will face a challenging fiscal position over the coming quarters as the president's disregard for the country's constitution sees donor states begin to scrutinise their contributions to the budget. This will be compounded by weak revenues from the copper sector, which will continue to struggle in a climate of low prices.

  • The Democratic Republic of the Congo's external accounts will remain a challenging headwind to the wider economy over the coming quarters, as elevated levels of political risk and weak export revenues dampen inflows of capital. A lack of hard currency entering the economy will be reflected in downside pressure on the Congolese franc, as it responds to excessive import demand.

  • Higher inflation in the wake of the recent sell-off of the Congolese franc will force the Democratic Republic of the Congo to shift toward more hawkish monetary policy in the months ahead. We now expect the central bank to hike the key lending rate by 150 basis points before year-end 2016, keeping rates stable over 2017.

  • We maintain our view that the Democratic Republic of the Congo will not hold a presidential election as originally scheduled in November 2016, prolonging political uncertainty and instability. Political risk will deter would-be investors until well after President Joseph Kabila's ouster or the unlikely acquiescence of the opposition.

Key Risks:

  • More donors could withdraw funding on the back of the president's disregard for the country's constitution, prompting deeper shortfalls in the government's fiscal position and inflows of foreign capital.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Congo (DRC) 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014 2015e 2016f 2017f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources/BMI
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 9.5 7.0 4.4 6.6
Nominal GDP, USDbn 36.0 39.6 41.4 46.2
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 1.0 1.6 5.5 4.8
Exchange rate CDF/USD, eop 911.00 925.00 1,050.00 1,100.00
Budget balance, % of GDP -3.5 -4.0 -5.5 -5.2
Current account balance, % of GDP -10.1 -10.8 -10.4 -8.1
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
Growth Slows As Key Drivers Deteriorate
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
10
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
10
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
11
Budget Deficit Deepens As Government Prioritises Politics
11
Structural Fiscal Position
12
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
12
External Trade And Investment Outlook
13
Deteriorating Investor Sentiment Sees Current Account Deficit Stabilise
13
Outlook On External Position
15
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS
15
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS
15
Monetary Policy
17
Increasing Inflation Will Not Warrant Rate Hike
17
Monetary Policy Framework
18
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
19
The DRC Economy To 2025
19
Size Will Prove A Double-Edged Sword
19
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
19
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
23
SWOT Analysis
23
BMI Political Risk Index
23
Domestic Politics
24
'Third Termism' To Lead To More Unrest
24
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
24
Long-Term Political Outlook
25
Structural Weaknesses Will Prolong Instability
25
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
29
SWOT Analysis
29
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
31
Global Macro Outlook
31
Summer Of Risk
31
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
31
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
32
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
33
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
35

Assess your risk exposure in Congo, Dem. Rep. with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Congo, Dem. Rep. with confidence.

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