BMI View: We continue to believe that the combination of rising interest rates and the ending of tax breaks for electric cars will lead to a slowing in sales growth for the Danish new vehicle sector in 2016. We are currently targeting 4.7% growth for the sector as a whole, with commercial vehicles to outperform passenger cars .
|Passenger Car and Light Commercial Vehicle Sales|
|f = BMI forecast. Source: Statbank Denmark, BMI|
This quarter, BMI has extended its forecast period out to 2020.
Over this period, we expect 28.9% sales growth from the Danish new vehicle market, with commercial vehicles (CVs) to outperform passenger cars (PCs).
For 2016, we are targeting 4% growth in PC sales and 8.7% growth in CV sales. We believe that commercial vehicles will outperform cars as the Danish economy gains strength and businesses are more confident to invest in fleet renewal.
New model launches from leading players will continue to bolster passenger car sales in 2016.
Government moves to end current tax breaks on electric vehicles could spark a slump in demand for this sub-sector over the coming years.
Given the proximity of several other car manufacturing countries, Denmark will not be developing its own indigenous volume car production facilities, although it will retain a role as a hub for the manufacture and distribution of auto parts.
The ongoing emissions scandal affecting German carmaker Volkswagen appears to be costing it sales in the Danish market, with French carmaker Peugeot selling the most passenger cars in country for the month of November 2015.
The Denmark Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
BMI Research's Denmark Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Denmark.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Denmark to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Danish automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Danish automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Denmark.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.
BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.