New vehicle sales rose by 5% over 2014, to 221,708 units, according to figures from the Danish Car Importers Association - De Danske Bilimportorer (DBI). This was just shy of BMI's forecast of a 5.8% increase, but still bears out our optimistic stance on the local sales market.
Breaking down the headline figure, passenger car sales were up by 3.8% year-on-year (y-o-y), at 189,051 units. Within the commercial vehicle segment, light commercial vehicle (LCV) sales showed the strongest growth over the past year, increasing by 18.6%, to 28,473 units. However, heavy commercial vehicle (HCV) sales actually fell by 14.4%, to 3,690 units. Bus sales totalled 494 units, up 14.6%.
We retain a constructive view on the medium-term outlook for Danish new car sales, although we believe there will be slower sales growth in 2015 than 2014. Overall, we believe that the macroeconomic backdrop is deteriorating slightly, with BMI's Country Risk team having recently revised its 2015 GDP growth forecast down, from 1.7% to 1.5%, with 1.5% growth forecast for 2016 as well.
However, on a more encouraging note for the autos sector, we believe that fixed investment and private consumption will help Denmark weather a slowdown in external demand over the coming quarters. In recent months, the outlook for household spending has vastly improved, with house prices having risen over seven consecutive quarters up to Q214. This has boosted both consumer confidence and spending. The employment situation has also improved, with total employment reaching its highest level since 2008. Moreover, employment gains have not been concentrated in export-focused sectors, making them less vulnerable to volatility in external demand. Wage growth remains subdued, but real incomes will be supported by low consumer price inflation, which we forecast to average just 0.8% in 2015. We forecast private consumption to add 0.7 and 0.9 percentage points (pp) to headline GDP growth in 2015 and 2016, the largest contributor...
The Denmark Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
BMI Research's Denmark Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Denmark.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Denmark to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Danish automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Danish automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Denmark.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.
BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.