Denmark Autos Report

Published 07 May 2015

  • 64 pages
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$1,295.00
Denmark Autos Report

Danish new vehicle sales raced ahead over H115, against a backdrop of low interest rates and a recovering economy. According to figures from the Danish Car Importers Association - De Danske Bilimportorer (DBI), new vehicle sales rose by 8.3% y-o-y, to 123,513 units. Given this strong start to the year, BMI thinks the time is right to make a slight upward adjustment to our full-year forecasts. We are now targeting 7% sales growth for 2015, with commercial vehicles (CVs) set to outperform passenger cars (PCs), although PCs will still account for the lion's share of new vehicle sales in Denmark.

Breaking down the headline figure for the January to July period, passenger car sales stood at 104,862 units (+6.1% y-o-y). LCV sales were up by 19.3% y-o-y, at 16,109 units. HCV sales were up by 53.8% y-o-y, at 2,381 units, with bus sales falling by 14% y-o-y, to 161 units. Total CV sales stood at 18,651 units for the first half of 2015, up 22.4% y-o-y.

Overall, therefore, we retain our long-held constructive view on the medium-term outlook for Danish new car sales. BMI's Country Risk team believes that Denmark's economy will continue to gain momentum over the coming quarters, benefitting from stronger demand in its key export markets and the boon of negative interest rates and rising employment. Although the long-term economic outlook continues to be overshadowed by the highest household debt burden among OECD states (292% of gross domestic income in 2013), negative interest rates have seen a surge in mortgage refinancing so far this year. Coupled with improving labour market conditions, this will provide a tailwind to private consumption at a time when investment in the economy is growing.

BMI is forecasting 1.4% real GDP growth in 2015, rising to 1.6% in 2016, although growth may then begin to tail off somewhat, reflecting high household indebtedness, a lack of liquidity in the local treasury market (which could undermine the longer-term fixed investment outlook) and a...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Operational Risk
13
Industry Forecast
14
Production, Sales And Trade
14
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Denmark 2013-2019)
14
Sales
14
Production
16
Motorcycles
17
Table: Motorcycle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Denmark 2013-2019)
17
Passenger Vehicles
18
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Denmark 2013-2019)
18
Table: Denmark - Top 10 Brands, 2014
19
Electric Vehicles
20
Commercial Vehicles
22
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Denmark 2013-2019)
22
Suppliers
24
Macroeconomic Forecasts
25
Economic Analysis
25
Table: Real GDP Growth Forecasts
27
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Denmark 2012-2019)
32
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
34
Europe - Risk/Reward Index
34
Table: Europe Autos Risk/Reward Index
37
Company Profile
39
Industry Trend Analysis
39
VW: Piech Out As VW Looks For Global Lead
39
PSA: Family Feud Clouds Ownership Future
39
Renault: Increased Government Influence Shakes Alliance
40
Interdan Holding
42
Semler Group
45
Regional Overview
48
Industry Trend Analysis
48
Global Industry Overview
51
Table: Passenger Car Sales March (CBUs)
51
US Slowdown A Temporary Glitch-
51
Europe Recovery Will Be Steady
53
Asia Carries The BRIC States
54
Demographic Forecast
56
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Denmark 1990-2025)
57
Table: Key Population Ratios (Denmark 1990-2025)
57
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Denmark 1990-2025)
58
Table: Population By Age Group (Denmark 1990-2025)
58
Table: Population By Age Group % (Denmark 1990-2025)
59
Methodology
61
Industry Forecasts
61
Sector-Specific Methodology
62
Sources
62
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
63
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Index Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
64

The Denmark Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

BMI Research's Denmark Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Denmark.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Denmark to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Danish automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Danish automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Denmark.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.

BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company  developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country  investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Sources

The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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