Denmark Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
×

Sign up to download the Denmark Country Risk Report

By submitting this form you are acknowledging that you have read and understood our Privacy Policy.

Thank you for your interest

You will shortly receive your free executive summary by email.

Denmark Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • Real GDP growth in Denmark will continue to be supported by a steady improvement in external demand, mainly from the eurozone. However, the large debt burden of the private sector will restrain growth over a multi-year horizon.

  • While Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen's hardline nationalist stance towards Europe's migration crisis has bolstered public support for the conservative right on Denmark's political scene, we retain the view that the government will remain unstable. The one-party minority government will have a difficult time passing legislation, making it likely that the government will be ousted before its term ends in 2019.

Major Forecast Changes

  • With consumer confidence and exports weakening, we have revised down our 2016 real GDP growth forecast to 0.9% from 1.2%.

Key Risks

  • The main risk to the Danish economy remains the extremely high levels of household indebtedness. Ultra-low interest rates are underpinning a slow deleveraging process, and as such the economy's vulnerability to rate hikes remains a concern. While we anticipate interest rates to remain very low for several years, any unexpected growth slowdown or interest rate shock would leave the economy vulnerable.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Denmark 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014 2015e 2016f 2017f
f=BMI forecast. Source: National Sources/BMI
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 1.3 1.2 0.9 1.2
Nominal GDP, EURbn 260.6 234.9 272.2 279.6
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.3
Exchange rate DKK/USD, eop 6.13 7.76 6.77 6.48
Budget balance, % of GDP 1.2 -2.1 -3.0 -2.7
Current account balance, % of GDP 6.2 6.8 6.5 6.3
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
Weak Growth On All Fronts In 2016-2017
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
10
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
10
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
10
Monetary Policy
11
Steady Policy To 2018 As Krone Speculation Eases
11
Monetary Policy Framework
12
Chapter 2: Political Outlook
15
SWOT Analysis
15
BMI Political Risk Index
15
Domestic Politics
16
Brexit Implications: Increased Risk Of 'Danexit'
16
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
16
Long-Term Political Outlook
18
Welfare Reform, Migration Are Key Long-Term Issues
18
Chapter 3: BMI Global Macro Outlook
21
Global Macro Outlook
21
Tentative Stability, But New Risks Emerging
21
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
21
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
22
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
23
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
25

Assess your risk exposure in Denmark with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Denmark with confidence.

Your subscription service includes:

  • Delivery of the report in print and PDF
  • Online access for 12 months
  • The functionality to translate your online report into your choice of 10 languages - Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian and Spanish
  • The ability to export data and graphs from the online report directly into your workflow
  • The support of a dedicated Account Manager to answer any questions you might have about your subscription
  • Access to our team of leading analysts who will be happy to answer any questions you might have about the data and forecasts included in this report