Denmark Country Risk Report

Published 25 February 2015 | Quarterly

  • 26 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,195.00
Denmark Country Risk Report

Core Views

  • Extraordinary monetary policy measures and improvement in the labour market will help offset a weaker external demand picture in Denmark. Private consumption will remain the main engine of growth, despite a very large household debt burden.

  • Denmark will experience broad political stability over the coming decade, but changes to the welfare state will see divisions emerge between left and right, and old and young. Meanwhile, opposition to immigration will increase. The government will continue to face demands from Greenland for full independence, although this scenario will not play out in our 10-year forecast period to 2024.

Major Forecast Changes

  • We have revised our discount rate forecast for Denmark to 0.00% until 2017, having previously projected 0.25% and 0.50% in 2015 and 2016 respectively.

Risks To Outlook

  • Near-term risks to our economic outlook for Denmark are dominated by uncertainty over the eurozone following the election victory for Syriza in Greece on January 25. Despite the new anti-austerity government's efforts to secure more favourable bailout terms in recent weeks, the firm stance among the main creditor nations and the troika of the EU, ECB and IMF suggests that a Greek exit from the monetary union remains a significant tail risk.

  • In the longer term, we caution that the high private sector debt burden in Denmark presents enormous uncertainty and could lead to a prolonged period of deleveraging.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Key Risks To Outlook
5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Political Risk Index
7
Domestic Politics
8
Operational Risk Index Highlights Key Vulnerabilities
8
Table: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
8
Table: Operational Risk Index & Sub-Components
9
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
11
SWOT Analysis
11
BMI Economic Risk Index
11
Economic Activity
12
Regional Headwinds Dampen Growth Outlook
12
Table: GDP By Expenditure
12
Chapter 3: Key Sectors
15
Oil & Gas
15
Table: Oil Production (2012-2017)
15
Table: Oil Production (2018-2023)
16
Table: Gas Production (2012-2017)
18
Table: Gas Production (2018-2023)
18
Other Key Sectors
21
table: Pharma Sector Key Indicators
21
table: Telecoms Sector Key Indicators
21
table: Infrastructure Sector Key Indicators
21
table: Food and Drink Sector Key Indicators
22
table: Autos Sector Key Indicators
22
Chapter 4: BMI Global Assumptions
23
Global Outlook
23
Reality Check: Uncertainty Reigns
23
Table: Global Assumptions
23
Table: Developed States, Real GDP GrowtH, %
24
Table: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
24
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth, %
25

The Denmark Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Denmark. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Denmark's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Denmark's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • Contextualise Denmark's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Denmark, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Denmark Country Risk Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes three major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook and Key Sector Outlook.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Denmark' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Denmark through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Denmark Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector obligations).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2019 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Denmark and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Denmark, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Denmark over the next 5-years?

BMI's Denmark country Risk Index evaluates the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Denmark Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Denmark.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Index assesses explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest positioning and trends for Denmark's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.
  • Long-Term Political Outlook BMI examines the structural risks to the stability of Denmark’s political system and the dominant public policy issues likely to affect decision-makers, and outlines scenarios for how the state could evolve in the medium to long term.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark Denmark's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

Key Sector Outlook*

Which industry sectors in Denmark will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the market?

BMI identifies investment opportunities in Denmark's high growth industries including automotives, defence & security, food & drink, freight transport, infrastructure, oil & gas, pharmaceuticals & healthcare and telecommunications & IT.

Key Areas Covered:

  • Market Overview - Size and value of each industry, including recent sector developments and major industry key performance indicators (KPIs) that have impacted company performance.
  • 5-year Industry Forecasts - Forecasts for each year over 2015-2019, using BMI's proprietary industry modelling technique, which incorporates key domestic and international indicators - including economic growth, interest rates, exchange rate outlook, commodity prices and demographic trends - to provide fully integrated forecasts across and within each industry.
  • Demand- and Supply-Side Data/Forecasts - BMI's industry data covers both the output of each industry and the domestic demand, offering clear analysis of anticipated import/export trends, as well as capacity growth within each industry.

Key Benefits

  • Target strategic opportunities in high growth industries, which are benefiting from global mega trends, and thus offer strong investment and growth opportunities.
  • Compare the growth path of different industries to identify which are best placed to benefit from domestic and international economic prospects, and which have historically suffered from volatile growth trends - a key indicator of future risks.

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Testimonials

The sections that I find most interesting and useful are the macroeconomic data and forecasts for the country, top export destinations and economic activity. The indicators/analysis of these areas helps us orient our thinking, our assumptions and, consequently, our decisions in the commercial area.

Country Manager, DHL Express