Denmark Country Risk Report

Published 26 August 2015 | Quarterly

  • 30 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,195.00
Denmark Country Risk Report

Core Views

  • Real GDP growth in Denmark will continue to be supported by a steady improvement in external demand. However, the forthcoming unwinding of the ultra-loose monetary policy by the central bank will chip away somewhat at the momentum behind the recovery in private consumption.

  • Denmark is poised for a period of unstable party politics with the new one-party minority government unlikely to stay in power for the duration of its term ending in 2019. The ruling centre-right Venstre party will have to seek support from either fellow right-wing parties or opposition leftist parties, making the passage of legislature a difficult and protracted process.

Major Forecast Changes

  • We have revised upward our real GDP growth forecast for Denmark - to 1.7% in 2015 (from 1.5%) and to 1.7% in 2016 (from 1.6%) - as the continued improvement in the external economic landscape will continue to provide a strong tailwind to growth in the coming quarters.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Denmark 2013-2016)
Indicator 2013 2014 2015f 2016f
f=BMI forecast. Source: National Sources/BMI
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y -0.5 1.1 1.7 1.7
Nominal GDP, EURbn 253.2 257.4 261.9 267.5
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.7
Exchange rate DKK/USD, eop 5.40 6.15 7.31 6.77
Budget balance, % of GDP -1.1 1.2 -0.8 -0.5
Current account balance, % of GDP 7.2 6.3 6.0 5.8
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks To Outlook
5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Political Risk Index
7
Domestic Politics
8
Anti-Immigration Rhetoric Will Dominate Policy-Making After Election
8
Table: Political Overview
8
Long-Term Political Outlook
10
Reform Of Welfare State Key Issue Over Coming Decade
10
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
15
SWOT Analysis
15
BMI Economic Risk Index
15
Economic Activity
16
Rising Disposable Income Will Lead To Stronger Economic Growth
16
Table: GDP By Expenditure
16
Tab le: Rea l GDP Growth Forecasts
17
Chapter 3: Operational Risk
21
SWOT Analysis
21
Chapter 4: Key Sectors
23
Automotives
23
Tab le: Aut os Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts
24
Other Key Sectors
27
table: Oil and Gas Sector Key Indicators
27
table: Pharma Sector Key Indicators
27
table: Infrastructure Sector Key Indicators
27
table: Telecoms Sector Key Indicators
28
table: Food and Drink Sector Key Indicators
28
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
29
Global Outlook
29
EMs Still Slowing
29
Table: Global Assumptions
29
Table: Developed States , Real GDP Growth, %
30
Table: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
30
Table: Emerging Markets , Real GDP Growth , %
31

The Denmark Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Denmark. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Denmark's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, BMI Research.

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Denmark's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • Contextualise Denmark's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Denmark, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Denmark Country Risk Report by BMI Research includes three major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook and Key Sector Outlook.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Denmark' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Denmark through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Denmark Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector obligations).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2019 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Denmark and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Denmark, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Denmark over the next 5-years?

BMI's Denmark country Risk Index evaluates the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Denmark Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Denmark.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Index assesses explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest positioning and trends for Denmark's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.
  • Long-Term Political Outlook BMI examines the structural risks to the stability of Denmark’s political system and the dominant public policy issues likely to affect decision-makers, and outlines scenarios for how the state could evolve in the medium to long term.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark Denmark's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

Key Sector Outlook*

Which industry sectors in Denmark will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the market?

BMI identifies investment opportunities in Denmark's high growth industries including automotives, defence & security, food & drink, freight transport, infrastructure, oil & gas, pharmaceuticals & healthcare and telecommunications & IT.

Key Areas Covered:

  • Market Overview - Size and value of each industry, including recent sector developments and major industry key performance indicators (KPIs) that have impacted company performance.
  • 5-year Industry Forecasts - Forecasts for each year over 2015-2019, using BMI's proprietary industry modelling technique, which incorporates key domestic and international indicators - including economic growth, interest rates, exchange rate outlook, commodity prices and demographic trends - to provide fully integrated forecasts across and within each industry.
  • Demand- and Supply-Side Data/Forecasts - BMI's industry data covers both the output of each industry and the domestic demand, offering clear analysis of anticipated import/export trends, as well as capacity growth within each industry.

Key Benefits

  • Target strategic opportunities in high growth industries, which are benefiting from global mega trends, and thus offer strong investment and growth opportunities.
  • Compare the growth path of different industries to identify which are best placed to benefit from domestic and international economic prospects, and which have historically suffered from volatile growth trends - a key indicator of future risks.

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