Denmark Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Denmark Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: We expect a partial but temporary recovery in oil and gas volumes over the medium term , as small developments come online . Past 2019 however, production will resume to the downside. While the country should remain a net oil and gas exporter throughout most of our forecast period , exports will become increasingly thin.

Headline Forecasts (Denmark 2013-2019)
2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 178.3 168.0 160.9 159.4 161.0 166.5 168.4
Dry natural gas production, bcm 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.5
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3
Refined products production, 000b/d 154.7 149.4 153.9 146.2 144.0 142.6 141.2
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 166.1 166.3 162.2 159.8 159.1 158.5 158.0
Brent, USD/bbl 108.70 99.50 55.00 54.00 53.00 60.00 64.00

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

  • Oil and gas reserves are depleting for this small mature North Sea producer and we do not expect the country to significantly reverse this trend. Ongoing exploration and the recent licensing round could yield upside risk to our forecast by the end of our forecast period. However, the strong decline in oil prices and our expectation of a lower price environment over the coming years temper this upside risk.

  • Oil and gas production will increase slightly between 2016-2019 as several small developments will help production recover. Overall, Denmark's hydrocarbon production trend clearly remains one of decline, with strong depletion rates at maturing fields.

  • With a continuous fall in energy intensity, increased fuel efficiency and a progressive increase in renewable energy consumption, we expect domestic oil and gas consumption will decrease throughout our forecast period.

  • We expect refined fuels production to progressively decline, on the back of weakening domestic fuel consumption and the overall difficult economic situation of the European downstream sector. While no refinery closures have been announced, Statoil's refinery in Kalundborg is undergoing major cost-cutting and Shell is seeking buyers for its Fredericia refinery.

  • While Denmark should remain a net oil and gas exporter throughout most of our forecast period, net exports will become increasingly thin. Should domestic production surprise slightly to the downside, the country could notably become a net crude oil importer throughout most of our forecast period. While Denmark's status as a net gas exporter throughout our forecast period is safer than for oil, the country increasingly relies on gas imports to meet peak winter demand.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Denmark 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Upstream Exploration
10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Denmark 2013-2018)
10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Denmark 2019-2024)
10
Table: Companies Applying In Denmark's 7th Licensing Round
14
Upstream Projects
18
Table: Denmark Major Upstream Projects
18
Upstream Production - Oil
19
Table: Oil Production (Denmark 2013-2018)
19
Table: Oil Production (Denmark 2019-2024)
19
Upstream Production - Gas
24
Table: Gas Production (Denmark 2013-2018)
24
Table: Gas Production (Denmark 2019-2024)
25
Refining
28
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Denmark 2013-2018)
28
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Denmark 2019-2024)
28
Refined Fuels Consumption
30
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Denmark 2013-2018)
30
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Denmark 2019-2024)
30
Gas Consumption
32
Table: Gas Consumption (Denmark 2013-2018)
32
Table: Gas Consumption (Denmark 2019-2024)
32
Trade - Oil
34
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Denmark 2013-2018)
34
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Denmark 2019-2024)
34
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Denmark 2013-2018)
36
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Denmark 2019-2024)
36
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Denmark 2013-2018)
38
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Denmark 2019-2024)
38
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
38
Table: Gas Net Exports (Denmark 2013-2018)
38
Table: Gas Net Exports (Denmark 2019-2024)
39
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
42
North America And Western Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
42
Table: North America & Western Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
42
Table: Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
43
Wide North America / Western Europe Upstream Gap To Remain
43
North America: Canada Losing Its Edge
44
Western Europe Languishes Without Shale Outlook
45
Downstream: US Comes Out Top
47
Table: Oil & Gas Downstream Risk/Reward Index
47
Denmark - Risk/Reward Index
50
Denmark Upstream Score - Overview
50
Denmark Upstream Score - Rewards
50
Denmark Upstream Score - Risks
50
Denmark Downstream Score - Overview
50
Denmark Downstream Score - Rewards
51
Denmark Downstream Score - Risks
51
Market Overview
52
Denmark Energy Market Overview
52
Overview/State Role
54
Regulation
54
Licensing
55
Fiscal
56
Table: Denmark Hydrocarbon Fiscal Regime
56
Government Policy
56
Licensing Rounds
56
International Energy Relations
57
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
58
Oil Refineries
58
Table: Refineries In Denmark
58
Service Stations
59
Oil Storage Facilities
59
Oil Pipelines/Terminals
59
LNG Terminals
60
Gas Storage Facilities
60
Gas Pipelines
61
Competitive Landscape
62
Competitive Landscape Summary
62
Table: Key Players - Danish Oil And Gas Sector
63
Table: Key Upstream Players
63
Table: Key Downstream Players
63
Company Profile
64
DONG Energy
64
Royal Dutch Shell
71
Other Summaries
75
Regional Overview
82
North America And Western Europe Oil & Gas Regional Overview
82
Global Industry Overview
93
Global Energy Market Overview
93
Table: Top 10 Global Oil Producers - Crude Oil, Condensates & NGLs Production ('000b/d)
93
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
96
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
97
Appendix
99
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-Year Forecasts
99
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2013-2018)
99
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2019-2024)
100
Developed Europe - Regional Appendix
102
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
102
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
103
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
103
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
104
Table: Refinery Capacity - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
104
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
105
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
105
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
106
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
106
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
107
Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports) - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
107
Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports) - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
108
Denmark - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
108
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Denmark 2013-2018)
108
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Denmark 2019-2024)
109
Denmark - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
109
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Denmark 2013-2018)
109
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Denmark 2019-2024)
110
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Denmark 2013-2018)
112
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Denmark 2019-2024)
113
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Denmark 2013-2018)
114
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Denmark 2019-2024)
114
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Denmark 2013-2018)
115
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Denmark 2019-2024)
116
Glossary
117
Table: Glossary Of Terms
117
Methodology
119
Industry Forecast Methodology
119
Source
121
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
121
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
123
Table: Weighting
124

The Denmark Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Denmark including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Denmark Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Danish oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Denmark to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Danish oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Danish oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Denmark.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.