Denmark Oil & Gas Report

Published 02 June 2015

  • 125 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Denmark Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: We expect a partial , but temporary recovery in oil and gas volumes over the medium term , as small developments come online . Past 2019 however, production will resume to the downside. While the country should remain a net oil and gas exporter, exports will become increasingly thin by the end of our forecast period.

Headline Forecasts (Denmark 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
BMI/EIA
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 178.3 168.1 159.5 151.8 154.8 160.3 162.3
Dry natural gas production, bcm 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.9 5.0 4.8
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 143.3 141.2 134.1 132.1 130.1 128.8 127.6
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 154.4 152.1 149.8 147.7 146.4 145.9 145.5

The main trends and developments in Denmark's oil and gas sector are:

  • Oil and gas reserves are depleting for this small mature North Sea producer, and we do not expect the country to significantly reverse this trend. Ongoing exploration, the recent licensing round and the potential for shale gas could yield upside risk to our forecast by the end of our forecast period. However, the strong decline in oil prices and our expectation of a lower price environment over the coming years temper this upside risk.

  • Oil and gas production should increase slightly between 2017-2019 and 2016-2018 respectively, as several small developments will help production recover. However, delays on the Hejre field has seen BMI push back the date for production ramp-up. Overall, Denmark's hydrocarbon production trend clearly remains one of decline, with strong depletion rates at maturing fields.

  • With a continuous fall in energy intensity, increased fuel efficiency and a progressive increase in renewable energy consumption, we expect domestic...

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Denmark 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
8
Oil & Gas SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Upstream Exploration
10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Denmark 2013-2018)
10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Denmark 2019-2024)
10
Table: Companies Applying In Denmark's 7th Licensing Round
14
Upstream Projects
18
Table: Denmark Major Upstream Projects
18
Upstream Production - Oil
19
Table: Oil Production (Denmark 2013-2018)
19
Table: Oil Production (Denmark 2019-2024)
19
Upstream Production - Gas
25
Table: Gas Production (Denmark 2013-2018)
25
Table: Gas Production (Denmark 2019-2024)
25
Refining
28
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Denmark 2013-2018)
28
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Denmark 2019-2024)
28
Refined Fuels Consumption
30
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Denmark 2013-2018)
30
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Denmark 2019-2024)
30
Gas Consumption
32
Table: Gas Consumption (Denmark 2013-2018)
32
Table: Gas Consumption (Denmark 2019-2024)
32
Trade - Oil
34
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Denmark 2013-2018)
34
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Denmark 2019-2024)
34
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Denmark 2013-2018)
36
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Denmark 2019-2024)
36
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Denmark 2013-2018)
38
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Denmark 2019-2024)
38
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
39
Table: Gas Net Exports (Denmark 2013-2018)
39
Table: Gas Net Exports (Denmark 2019-2024)
39
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
43
North America And Western Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
43
Table: North America & Western Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
44
US More Resilient Than Canada To Oil Price Fall
44
Table: Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
45
Western Europe Languishes Without Shale Outlook
47
Downstream: US Comes Out Top
49
Table: Oil & Gas Downstream Risk/Reward Index
49
Denmark - Risk/Reward Index
52
Denmark Upstream Score - Overview
52
Denmark Upstream Score - Rewards
52
Denmark Upstream Score - Risks
53
Denmark Downstream Score - Overview
53
Denmark Downstream Score - Rewards
53
Denmark Downstream Score - Risks
53
Market Overview
54
Denmark Energy Market Overview
54
Overview/State Role
56
Regulation
56
Licensing
57
Fiscal
58
Table: Denmark Hydrocarbon Fiscal Regime
58
Government Policy
58
Licensing Rounds
58
International Energy Relations
59
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
60
Oil Refineries
60
Table: Refineries In Denmark
60
Service Stations
61
Oil Storage Facilities
61
Oil Pipelines/Terminals
61
LNG Terminals
62
Gas Storage Facilities
62
Gas Pipelines
63
Competitive Landscape
64
Competitive Landscape Summary
64
Table: Key Players - Danish Oil And Gas Sector
65
Table: Key Upstream Players
65
Table: Key Downstream Players
65
Company Profile
66
DONG Energy
66
Royal Dutch Shell
73
Other Summaries
77
Regional Overview
83
North America And Western Europe Oil & Gas Regional Overview
83
Global Industry Overview
94
Oil Price Outlook
94
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus Forecasts* WTI And Brent, Front Month - USD/bbl
94
Table: 2015-2016 - Fundamental Pressure On Oil Prices
95
Appendix
102
Developed Europe - Regional Appendix
102
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
102
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
103
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
103
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
104
Table: Refinery Capacity - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
104
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
105
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
105
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
106
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
106
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
107
Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports) - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
107
Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports) - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
108
Denmark - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
109
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Denmark 2013-2018)
109
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Denmark 2019-2024)
109
Denmark - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
110
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Denmark 2013-2018)
110
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Denmark 2019-2024)
111
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Denmark 2013-2018)
112
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Denmark 2019-2024)
113
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Denmark 2013-2018)
114
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Denmark 2019-2024)
115
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Denmark 2013-2018)
116
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Denmark 2019-2024)
116
Glossary
118
Table: Glossary Of Terms
118
Methodology
120
Industry Forecast Methodology
120
Source
122
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
122
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
124
Table: Weighting
125

The Denmark Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Denmark including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Denmark Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Danish oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Denmark to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Danish oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Danish oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Denmark.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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