Denmark Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Denmark Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: We expect a partial but temporary recovery in oil and gas volumes over the medium term , as small developments come online . Past 2019 however, production will resume to the downside. While the country should remain a net oil and gas exporter throughout most of our forecast period , exports will become increasingly thin. We note increasing downside risks to our production forecast as the start-up date for the Hejre field is increasingly uncertain.

Headline Forecasts (Denmark 2014-2020)
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 168.0 160.9 159.4 161.0 166.5 168.4 159.7
Dry natural gas production, bcm 4.7 4.7 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.5 4.3
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2
Refined products production, 000b/d 149.4 153.9 146.2 144.0 142.6 141.2 139.8
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 166.3 162.2 159.8 159.1 158.5 158.0 157.6
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 42.50 53.00 55.00 60.00 67.00

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

  • Oil and gas reserves are depleting for this small mature North Sea producer and we do not expect the country to significantly reverse this trend. Ongoing exploration and the recent licensing round could yield upside risk to our forecast by the end of our forecast period. However, the strong decline in oil prices and our expectation of a lower price environment over the coming years temper this upside risk.

  • Total abandoned shale exploration in Denmark in August 2015 due to disappointing exploration results. We expect the low oil and gas price environment will dissuade further shale gas exploration over the coming years.

  • New World Oil and Gas relinquished its licenses in both the onshore Danica Jutland Project and offshore Danica Resources Project following the expiry of its licenses in September 2015. This is reportedly due to the company not finding a farm-in partner despite the analysis highlighting the licenses' prospectivity, significantly re-risking the licenses and finding one drillable prospect

  • Oil and gas production will increase slightly over the coming years as several small developments will help production recover. Overall, Denmark's hydrocarbon production trend clearly remains one of decline, with strong depletion rates at maturing fields. We note increasing downside risks to both oil and gas production due to delays on the Hejre field.

  • With a continuous fall in energy intensity, increased fuel efficiency and a progressive increase in renewable energy consumption, we expect domestic oil and gas consumption will decrease throughout our forecast period.

  • We expect refined fuels production to progressively decline, on the back of weakening domestic fuel consumption and the overall difficult economic situation of the European downstream sector. While no refinery closures have been announced, Statoil's refinery in Kalundborg is undergoing major cost-cutting and Shell is seeking buyers for its Fredericia refinery.

  • While Denmark should remain a net oil and gas exporter throughout most of our forecast period, net exports will become increasingly thin. Should domestic production surprise slightly to the downside, the country could notably become a net crude oil importer throughout most of our forecast period. While Denmark's status as a net gas exporter throughout our forecast period is safer than for oil, the country increasingly relies on gas imports to meet peak winter demand. We highlight this is an increasing risk to 2017-2019 given the increasingly likely delays at Hejre field which would push back first production from the planned 2017 start-up date.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Denmark 2014-2020)
7
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Upstream Exploration
10
Latest Updates
10
Structural Trends
10
Table: Companies Applying In Denmark's Seventh Licensing Round
13
Upstream Projects
16
Table: Denmark Major Upstream Projects
16
Upstream Production - Oil
17
Latest Updates
17
Structural Trends
17
Table: Oil Production (Denmark 2014-2019)
20
Table: Oil Production (Denmark 2020-2025)
20
Upstream Production - Gas
21
Latest Updates
21
Structural Trends
21
Table: Gas Production (Denmark 2014-2019)
23
Table: Gas Production (Denmark 2020-2025)
24
Refining
25
Latest Updates
25
Structural Trends
25
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Denmark 2014-2019)
27
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Denmark 2020-2025)
27
Refined Fuels Consumption
28
Latest Updates
28
Structural Trends
28
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Denmark 2014-2019)
29
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Denmark 2020-2025)
29
Gas Consumption
30
Latest Updates
30
Structural Trends
30
Table: Gas Consumption (Denmark 2014-2019)
31
Table: Gas Consumption (Denmark 2020-2025)
31
Trade - Oil
32
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts
32
Latest Updates
32
Structural Trends
32
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Denmark 2014-2019)
34
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Denmark 2020-2025)
34
Refined Fuels Forecast
34
Latest Updates
34
Structural Trends
34
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Denmark 2014-2019)
35
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Denmark 2020-2025)
36
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
36
Latest Updates
36
Structural Trends
36
Table: Gas Net Exports (Denmark 2014-2019)
38
Table: Gas Net Exports (Denmark 2020-2025)
39
Industry Risk Reward Index
40
North America And Western Europe - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
40
Table: North America And Western Europe - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
41
Upstream: North America To Maintain Lead
41
Table: North America And Western Europe - Upstream Risk/Reward Index
44
Downstream: US Widens Lead
44
Table: North America And Western Europe - Downstream Risk/Reward Index
46
Denmark - Risk/Reward Index
47
Denmark Upstream Score - Overview
47
Denmark Upstream Score - Rewards
47
Denmark Upstream Score - Risks
47
Denmark Downstream Score - Overview
48
Denmark Downstream Score - Rewards
48
Denmark Downstream Score - Risks
48
Market Overview
49
Denmark Energy Market Overview
49
Fiscal Regime
50
Table: Denmark - Upstream Tax Regime
50
Licensing Regime
50
Licensing Rounds
51
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
51
Oil Refineries
51
Table: Refineries In Denmark
52
Service Stations
52
Oil Storage Facilities
53
Oil Pipelines/Terminals
53
LNG Terminals
54
Gas Storage Facilities
54
Gas Pipelines
55
Competitive Landscape
56
Table: Key Players - Danish Oil And Gas Sector
57
Table: Key Upstream Players
57
Table: Key Downstream Players
58
Company Profile
59
DONG Energy
59
Royal Dutch Shell
67
Other Summaries
71
Regional Overview
78
North America And Western Europe Oil And Gas Regional Overview
78
Table: North America - Key Regional Indicators, 2013-2024
89
Table: Western Europe - Key Regional Indicators, 2013-2024
90
Glossary
92
Table: Glossary Of Terms
92
Methodology
94
Industry Forecast Methodology
94
Source
96
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
96
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
98
Table: Weighting
99

The Denmark Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Denmark including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Denmark Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Danish oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Denmark to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Danish oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Danish oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Denmark.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.