BMI View: We expect a partial but temporary recovery in oil and gas volumes over the medium term , as small developments come online . Past 2019 however, production will resume to the downside. While the country should remain a net oil and gas exporter throughout most of our forecast period , exports will become increasingly thin. We note increasing downside risks to our production forecast as the start-up date for the Hejre field is increasingly uncertain.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||168.0||160.9||159.4||161.0||166.5||168.4||159.7|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||4.7||4.7||4.2||4.4||4.6||4.5||4.3|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||3.5||3.4||3.4||3.3||3.3||3.3||3.2|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||149.4||153.9||146.2||144.0||142.6||141.2||139.8|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||166.3||162.2||159.8||159.1||158.5||158.0||157.6|
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
Oil and gas reserves are depleting for this small mature North Sea producer and we do not expect the country to significantly reverse this trend. Ongoing exploration and the recent licensing round could yield upside risk to our forecast by the end of our forecast period. However, the strong decline in oil prices and our expectation of a lower price environment over the coming years temper this upside risk.
Total abandoned shale exploration in Denmark in August 2015 due to disappointing exploration results. We expect the low oil and gas price environment will dissuade further shale gas exploration over the coming years.
New World Oil and Gas relinquished its licenses in both the onshore Danica Jutland Project and offshore Danica Resources Project following the expiry of its licenses in September 2015. This is reportedly due to the company not finding a farm-in partner despite the analysis highlighting the licenses' prospectivity, significantly re-risking the licenses and finding one drillable prospect
Oil and gas production will increase slightly over the coming years as several small developments will help production recover. Overall, Denmark's hydrocarbon production trend clearly remains one of decline, with strong depletion rates at maturing fields. We note increasing downside risks to both oil and gas production due to delays on the Hejre field.
With a continuous fall in energy intensity, increased fuel efficiency and a progressive increase in renewable energy consumption, we expect domestic oil and gas consumption will decrease throughout our forecast period.
We expect refined fuels production to progressively decline, on the back of weakening domestic fuel consumption and the overall difficult economic situation of the European downstream sector. While no refinery closures have been announced, Statoil's refinery in Kalundborg is undergoing major cost-cutting and Shell is seeking buyers for its Fredericia refinery.
While Denmark should remain a net oil and gas exporter throughout most of our forecast period, net exports will become increasingly thin. Should domestic production surprise slightly to the downside, the country could notably become a net crude oil importer throughout most of our forecast period. While Denmark's status as a net gas exporter throughout our forecast period is safer than for oil, the country increasingly relies on gas imports to meet peak winter demand. We highlight this is an increasing risk to 2017-2019 given the increasingly likely delays at Hejre field which would push back first production from the planned 2017 start-up date.
The Denmark Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Denmark including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Denmark Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Danish oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Denmark to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Danish oil and gas market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Danish oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Denmark.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
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Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
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Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:
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BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
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Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.
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*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.