Denmark Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Denmark Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Development delays at the Hejre field and the accompanying forecast change will see Denmark become a crude net importer throughout the forecast period. While its status as a gas net exporter is maintained at the moment, we highlight strong downside risk to gas production and exports after Maersk Oil expressed a potential interest in closing the Tyra East and Tyra West fields by 2018.

Headline Forecasts (Denmark 2014-2020)
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 168.0 157.3 151.2 143.9 146.2 152.2 154.7
Refined products production, 000b/d 180.0 187.6 178.2 175.5 173.8 172.0 170.3
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 166.0 160.8 158.4 157.6 157.0 156.4 156.0
Dry natural gas production, bcm 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.9
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 46.50 57.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

  • The seventh licensing round was launched in April 2014, and licenses were finally awarded in April 2016. Sixteen oil and gas licenses were awarded to 12 companies. Nevertheless, oil and gas reserves are depleting for this small mature North Sea producer and we do not expect the country to significantly reverse this trend. The strong decline in oil prices and our expectation of a lower price environment over the coming years temper this upside risk.

  • We have downgraded Denmark's oil production forecast from 2017 onwards on the back of new delays to the Hejre field development. While we temporarily have the field starting up in 2018 as opposed to our previous forecast of 2017, we highlight downside risk to this new forecast given no new development option has been identified at the time of writing.

  • This quarter, we have changed Denmark's status from a net crude oil exporter to importer throughout the entire forecast period. This is due to our forecast for high refining utilisation rates over the coming years, combined with our downgrade in oil production forecast on the back of the Hejre field development delays.

  • On the opposite side, we expect the country will become a net exporter of refined fuels throughout the forecast period. This represents a change this quarter from our previous forecast for net imports.

  • This quarter, we have pushed back the date for a ramp-up in gas production from the Hejre field on the back of announced delays on the project. We also note strong downside risk from other fields, such as the Tyra fields. Indeed, in April 2016 Maersk Oil issued a notification that production from Tyra East and Tyra West will cease in October 2018, if an economically viable solution for continued operations is not identified during 2016. Given that these are the country's largest gas field and that the facilities are the processing and export centre for all gas produced by the Danish Underground Consortium (DUC), this is a worrying signal for the country's long-term gas production outlook.

  • Denmark is an increasingly small net gas exporter to Sweden, Germany and the Netherlands. While the country should remain a net gas exporter over the forecast period, Denmark increasingly relies on gas imports to meet peak winter demand.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Denmark 2014-2020)
7
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Upstream Exploration
10
Latest Updates
10
Structural Trends
10
Upstream Projects
15
Table: Denmark Major Upstream Projects
15
Upstream Production - Oil
17
Latest Updates
17
Structural Trends
17
Table: Oil Production (Denmark 2014-2019)
20
Table: Oil Production (Denmark 2020-2025)
21
Upstream Production - Gas
22
Latest Updates
22
Structural Trends
22
Table: Gas Production (Denmark 2014-2019)
25
Table: Gas Production (Denmark 2020-2025)
25
Refining
26
Latest Updates
26
Structural Trends
26
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Denmark 2014-2019)
28
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Denmark 2020-2025)
28
Refined Fuels Consumption
29
Latest Updates
29
Structural Trends
29
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Denmark 2014-2019)
30
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Denmark 2020-2025)
30
Gas Consumption
31
Latest Updates
31
Structural Trends
31
Table: Gas Consumption (Denmark 2014-2019)
32
Table: Gas Consumption (Denmark 2020-2025)
32
Trade - Oil
33
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts
33
Latest Updates
33
Structural Trends
33
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Denmark 2014-2020)
35
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Denmark 2020-2025)
35
Refined Fuels Forecast
35
Latest Updates
35
Structural Trends
35
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Denmark 2014-2019)
36
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Denmark 2020-2025)
37
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
37
Latest Updates
37
Structural Trends
37
Table: Gas Net Exports (Denmark 2014-2019)
39
Table: Gas Net Exports (Denmark 2020-2025)
40
Industry Risk Reward Index
41
Denmark - Risk/Reward Index
41
Upstream Index
41
Downstream Index
42
North America And Western Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
43
Table: North America & Western Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
43
Upstream Rankings: North America To Maintain The Lead
44
North America: US Unconventional Production Leads Decline
44
Western Europe Languishes In Maturing Assets
45
Table: North America & Western Europe Upstream Risk/Reward Index, out of 100
47
Downstream Rankings: US Widens Its Lead
47
Table: North America & Western Europe Downstream Risk/Reward Index
49
Market Overview
50
Denmark Energy Market Overview
50
Fiscal Regime
51
Table: Denmark - Upstream Tax Regime
51
Licensing Regime
51
Licensing Rounds
52
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
53
Oil Refineries
53
Table: Refineries In Denmark
53
Service Stations
53
Oil Storage Facilities
54
Oil Pipelines/Terminals
54
LNG Terminals
54
Gas Storage Facilities
55
Gas Pipelines
56
Competitive Landscape
57
Table: Key Players - Danish Oil And Gas Sector
57
Table: Key Upstream Players
57
Table: Key Downstream Players
57
Company Profile
58
DONG Energy
58
Latest Updates
58
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Denmark
59
Table: Key Financial Data (DKKmn)
59
Regional Overview
60
North America And Western Europe Oil And Gas Regional Overview
60
Table: North America - Key Regional Indicators, 2014-2025
69
Table: Western Europe - Key Regional Indicators, 2014-2025
71
Glossary
72
Table: Glossary Of Terms
72
Methodology
74
Industry Forecast Methodology
74
Source
76
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
76
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
78
Table: Weighting
79

The Denmark Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Denmark including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Denmark Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Danish oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Denmark to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Danish oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Danish oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Denmark.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.