BMI View: Although Denmark has a relatively small pharmaceutical market compared to its Western European counterparts, its high per capita spending makes it an attractive market for innovative drugmakers. An aging population and sizable non-communicable disease burden will drive high-value medicine sales over the long-term. However, despite an end to high levels of austerity measures seen in the past years, we believe the government is likely to implement more price cuts on pharmaceuticals in the future due to rising healthcare costs.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: DKK21.50bn (USD2.82bn) in 2015 to DKK21.64bn (USD3.11bn) in 2016; +0.6% in local currency terms and +10.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast remains inline with last quarter.
Healthcare: DKK205.94bn (USD27.01bn) in 2015 to DKK209.75bn (USD30.12bn) in 2016; +1.9% in local currency terms and +11.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards slightly from last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||3.810||2.820||3.110||3.240||3.440||3.670||3.750|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.10||1.08||1.06||1.05||1.04||1.04||1.03|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||10.5||10.4||10.3||10.2||10.1||10.0||9.9|
|Health spending, USDbn||36.330||27.010||30.120||31.650||34.010||36.590||37.820|
Denmark maintains its score of 71.6 out of a total of 100 in our Q316 Risk Reward Index. The country remains in ninth position in our Western Europe matrix, sitting between Norway (71.3) and Sweden (71.7). Denmark's strong emphasis on the regulatory environment is a draw, although a major factor affecting the business environment for drugmakers is the country's small overall market size. Nevertheless, given its high per capita drug expenditure, medicines bring in substantial income for companies operating in the country.
In April 2016, the Danish Health Authority revealed that waiting times for psychiatric treatment in Danish hospitals have decreased by an average of 10 days for adults (eight days for children) in 2015.
In March 2016, Astellas Pharma and LEO Pharma completed the relevant closing conditions to allow the transfer of Astellas' global dermatology business to LEO Pharma.
In March 2016, LEO Pharma received scientific approval for Enstilar (calcipotriol/betamethasone dipropionate) for the treatment of psoriasis vulgaris in the EU.
Novo Nordisk reported impressive sales growth of 17.5% y-o-y to DKK28.9bn (USD4.39bn) in its Q415 financial results, reflecting the continued strength of its diabetes product portfolio and the positive impact of foreign currency appreciation against the krone.
In February 2016, Bavarian Nordic entered into a joint collaboration with Evaxion Biotech and Technical University of Denmark (DTU), for the development of an MVA-BN-based vaccine against MRSA (methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus) using Evaxion's computer-based technology to discover novel antigens.
BMI Economic View
Denmark's economy will experience modestly above-trend growth in 2016 and 2017, alongside an acceleration in the eurozone. However, long-term growth will remain weak as the private sector slowly pays down its sizeable debt burden.
BMI Political View
The rise of the populist, anti-immigration Danish People's Party and the weakness of the ruling Liberal party mean that immigration policy is likely to become increasingly stringent, while the country will maintain a eurosceptic stance. We anticipate that the government will collapse at some point in the next few years, ahead of the expiry of its full term in 2019.
The Denmark Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Denmark Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Denmark pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Denmark, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Danish pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Danish pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Denmark.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.