BMI View: Although the Danish pharmaceutical market will post another year of weak growth for 2016, we expect the sector to slowly pick up pace over the next five years. Medicine sales will be driven by an ag e ing population and rising chronic diseases, creating a favourable market for innovative drugmakers. However, rising healthcare costs will likely lead to more government cost-cutting measures focused on the pharmaceutical sector. Furthermore, uncertainty caused by the ' Brexit ' vote and its potential impact on European trade, also dampen the market ' s outlook.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: DKK21.50bn (USD2.82bn) in 2015 to DKK21.68bn (USD3.11bn) in 2016; +0.8% in local currency terms and +10.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast remains in line with last quarter.
Healthcare: DKK205.94bn (USD27.01bn) in 2015 to DKK209.62bn (USD30.10bn) in 2016; +1.8% in local currency terms and +11.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards slightly from last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||3.810||2.820||3.110||3.240||3.450||3.670||3.750|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.10||1.08||1.07||1.05||1.04||1.03||1.02|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||10.5||10.4||10.3||10.2||10.1||10.0||9.9|
|Health spending, USDbn||36.330||27.010||30.100||31.690||34.050||36.600||37.830|
Denmark scores 72.8 out of a total of 100 in our Q416 Risk/Reward Index, an improvement from last quarter's score of 71.3. The country moves up from ninth position to seventh in our Western Europe matrix, sitting between France (73.1) and Norway (72.5). Denmark's strong emphasis on the regulatory environment is a draw, although a major factor affecting the business environment for drugmakers is the country's small overall market size (Market Expenditure score of 12.0 out of 20). Combined with pressure on pharmaceutical spending, this negatively affects the Industry Rewards score in particular. Nevertheless, given its high per capita drug expenditure (Spending per Capita score of 9.6 out of 12), medicines bring in substantial income for companies operating in the country.
The FDA granted Fast Track Designation (FTD) to Lundbeck and Otsuka Pharmaceutical's idalopirdine for control of the symptoms of mild to moderate Alzheimer's disease (AD).
Novo Nordisk is investing DKK400mn (USD59.6mn) in a 500sq m extension of its insulin production plant in Kalundborg, Denmark, which is expected to be completed by the end of 2018.
In July 2016, LEO Pharma entered into a strategic partnership with AstraZeneca, covering potential new medicines for atopic dermatitis and psoriasis, two skin diseases where a significant unmet medical need remains.
In June 2016, Leo Pharma launched Enstilar (calcipotriol/betamethasone dipropionate), the first fixed-combination foam spray for the treatment of plaque psoriasis for patients 18 years or older in the UK.
In May 2016, Novo Nordisk reported net sales for Q116, worth DKK27,212mn (USD4,020mn), up by 8.0% over the DKK25,200mn reported a year earlier.
BMI Economic View
Danish growth will disappoint in 2016 and 2017, as consumers retrench and private investment remains subdued. Additionally, political risk, particularly the potential for a Danish referendum on EU membership, will dampen both household and business sentiment.
BMI Political View
The United Kingdom's referendum vote to leave the European Union in June has reignited debates over Denmark's relationship with the bloc. We have downgraded our short-term political risk score for Denmark to account for a potential disruption in policy continuity in the next 12 months, should the 'Brexit' vote lead to schisms in the Folketing over Denmark's ties to its European partners.
The Denmark Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Denmark Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Denmark pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Denmark, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Danish pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Danish pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Denmark.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.