BMI View: Growth in Denmark ' s relatively small pharmaceutical sector will remain sluggish in the coming years, a result of weak external demand and overall economic performance. However, over the longer term, we expect growth to gradually improve, driven by the rising demand for high - value medicines needed by an ag e ing population. Furthermore, Denmark ' s strong intellectual property protection, well-funded healthcare system and well-developed research environment make the country a highly attractive market for innovative drugmakers.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: DKK21.50bn (USD3.20bn) in 2015 to DKK21.68bn (USD3.11bn) in 2016; +0.8% in local currency terms and -2.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast remains in line with last quarter.
Healthcare: DKK204.36bn (USD30.42bn) in 2015 to DKK207.74bn (USD29.83bn) in 2016; +1.7% in local currency terms and -1.9% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards from last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||3.810||3.201||3.113||3.094||3.055||3.054||3.120|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.10||1.08||1.07||1.06||1.04||1.03||1.02|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||10.5||10.5||10.4||10.3||10.2||10.1||10.0|
|Health spending, USDbn||36.327||30.423||29.831||29.976||29.931||30.232||31.244|
Denmark scores 72.8 out of a total of 100 in our Q117 Risk Reward Index, unchanged from last quarter. The country moves up from seventh position to fifth in our Western Europe matrix, sitting between the UK (with a score of 72.9) and Finland (72.2). Denmark's strong emphasis on the regulatory environment is a draw, although a major factor affecting the business environment for drugmakers is the country's small overall market size (market expenditure score of 12.0 out of 20). Combined with pressure on pharmaceutical spending, this negatively affects the Industry Rewards score in particular. Nevertheless, given its high per capita drug expenditure (its spending per capita score comes to 9.6 out of 12), medicines bring in substantial income for companies operating in the country.
In October 2016, Novo Nordisk announced that it is planning to reduce its workforce of 42,300 by approximately 1,000 employees as part of several actions the firm is taking to reduce operating costs.
In September 2016, Lundbeck announced that the results of its Phase III trial on the efficiency of idalopirdine on the symptoms of Alzheimer's disease (AD) showed no statistically significant effect on the primary or secondary endpoints, despite promising Phase II results.
In August 2016, Bavarian Nordic announced a drug supply agreement with Bristol-Myers Squibb, whereby the latter will supply Opdivo (nivolumab) to Bavarian Nordic for use in a study exploring the benefit of combining CV301 with Opdivo in patients with previously treated non-small cell lung cancer.
Also in August 2016, Gilead Sciences entered into an exclusive licence agreement with Denmark-based biotechnology company Genmab for use of Genmab's DuoBody technology for the development of antibodies.
Novo Nordisk reported sales growth of 4.62% year-on-year (y-o-y) to DKK54.7bn (USD8.15bn) and a net profit increase of 6.61% to DKK19.4bn (USD2.90bn) for the first half of 2016, reflecting the continued strength of its diabetes product portfolio.
BMI Economic View
Danish economic activity will decelerate considerably in Q416 and early 2017, with private consumption slowing and exports remaining sluggish amid a weak external environment. Residential construction will be a bright spot, helping offset weakness in business investment. We have downgraded our 2017 real GDP growth forecast to 1.0% from 1.2% previously.
BMI Political View
The likelihood of Danish government instability has risen following the UK's 'Brexit' vote, with calls for a renegotiation of Denmark's relationship with the EU set to mount.
The Denmark Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Denmark Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Denmark pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Denmark, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Danish pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Danish pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Denmark.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.