Denmark Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 25 June 2015

  • 63 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Denmark Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: Improving economic conditions in Europe will ensure the continued strong growth of Denmark ' s economy. This will help offset the negative impact of drug patent expiration and price reductions in the medium-term. The country ' s aging population and relatively high per-capita spending will drive the demand for high-value pharmaceuticals over the longer-term. However, our outlook is dampened by the likelihood of further government cost-containment measures in the future in order to deal with spiralling healthcare costs.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: DKK20.87bn (USD3.75bn) in 2014 to DKK21.30bn (USD3.14bn) in 2015; +2.1% in local currency terms and -16.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards from last quarter.

  • Healthcare: DKK198.41bn (USD35.66bn) in 2014 to DKK202.04bn (USD29.83bn) in 2015; +1.8% in local currency terms and -16.4% in US dollar terms . Forecast revised downwards from last quarter.

Risk/Reward Index

Denmark scored 68.1 out of a total 100 in our index for Q3 2015 and was positioned 8th in our Western Europe matrix, just below Finland (68.8). The country's score is boosted by a strong regulatory environment, although a major factor affecting the business environment for drugmakers is its small overall market size.

Key Trends And Developments

June

  • Zealand Pharma and Eli Lilly have cancelled their diabetes and obesity-focused research and development collaboration, marking the end of research into the hormone-based approach to use novel peptides to lower blood glucose and body weight. The move also ends the possibility of expanding the collaboration to cover other drug targets and diseases, as suggested during the initial signing of co-development pact in 2013. Zealand still has active collaborations with Sanofi and Boehringer Ingelheim. Furthermore, Zealand has given Lilly a pipeline of partnered and in-house clinical-phase candidates, several of which have milestones coming up over the next 12 months.

...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Operational Risk
13
Industry Forecast
14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
14
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Denmark 2011-2019)
16
Healthcare Market Forecast
17
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Denmark 2011-2019)
19
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Denmark 2011-2019)
19
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Denmark 2011-2019)
20
Macroeconomic Forecasts
21
Economic Analysis
21
Table: Real GDP Growth Forecasts
27
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Denmark 2012-2019)
28
Industry Risk Reward Indices
29
Western Europe Risk/Reward Index
29
Denmark - Risk/Reward Index
34
Rewards
34
Risks
35
Market Overview
36
Industry Trends And Developments
38
Epidemiology
38
Healthcare Sector
39
Table: Healthcare Resources (Denmark 2009-2014)
39
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Denmark 2009-2014)
40
Table: Healthcare Activity (Denmark 2009-2014)
40
Regulatory Development
41
Pricing Regime
43
Reimbursement Regime
44
Table: Expenditure On Reimbursed Medicines (DKRmn)
46
Competitive Landscape
47
Table: LIF Member Companies
49
Demographic Forecast
51
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Denmark 1990-2025)
52
Table: Key Population Ratios (Denmark 1990-2025)
52
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Denmark 1990-2025)
53
Table: Population By Age Group (Denmark 1990-2025)
53
Table: Population By Age Group % (Denmark 1990-2025)
54
Glossary
56
Methodology
58
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
58
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
58
Notes On Methodology
59
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
60
Index Overview
61
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
61
Indicator Weightings
62

The Denmark Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Denmark Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Denmark pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Denmark, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Danish pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Danish pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Denmark.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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