BMI View: Limited by its population size, Denmark has a relatively small pharmaceutical market compared to its Western European counterparts. We believe that pharmaceutical market growth will continue in 2016 in local currency terms, especially as economic conditions improve. The demand for innovative medicines and high quality healthcare services will be driven by the country ' s aging population and high per capita spending. However, in the long-term a higher pensionable population would put considerable strain on government finances, creating the possibility of further cost-containment measures targeting the healthcare sector.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: DKK21.30bn (USD3.14bn) in 2015 to DKK21.74bn (USD3.12bn) in 2016; +2.1% in local currency terms and -0.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from last quarter.
Healthcare: DKK201.38bn (USD29.73bn) in 2015 to DKK205.46bn (USD29.50bn) in 2015; +2.0% in local currency terms and -0.8% in US dollar terms . Forecast revised downwards slightly from last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||3.751||3.144||3.122||3.277||3.498||3.729||3.810|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.09||1.09||1.09||1.09||1.08||1.08||1.07|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||10.5||10.6||10.6||10.6||10.5||10.4||10.3|
|Health spending, USDbn||35.655||29.728||29.503||31.045||33.342||35.867||37.055|
Denmark scored 71.6 out of a total of 100 in our Q216 Risk Reward Index. It improves on last quarter's score of 68.5 owing to a better sector value growth score (4.8 out of 12) as we move forward with our projections. The country is ranked ninth in our Western Europe matrix, sitting between Norway (71.3) and Sweden (71.7). Denmark's strong emphasis on the regulatory environment is a draw, although a major factor affecting the business environment for drugmakers is the country's small overall market size.
In December 2015, Bavarian Nordic entered into a licensing and collaboration agreement with Janssen Pharmaceuticals which will see Janssen acquire exclusive rights to Nordic's MVA-BN (Modified Vaccinia Ankara-Bavarian Nordic) technology for use in a prime-boost vaccine regimen together with Janssen's own AdVac technology with the purpose of targeting all cancers induced by human papillomavirus (HPV).
In December 2015, Novo Nordisk has collaborated with US-based technology firm IBM to use the latter's Watson computing system in diabetes research.
The Danish government reached an agreement on the 2016 Budget, which will include a DKK2.4bn (USD352.99mn) investment in the healthcare sector, with much of it aimed at the elderly.
In November 2015, LEO Pharma and Astellas Pharma announced that they have entered into an asset purchase agreement, under which Astellas will transfer its global dermatology business to LEO Pharma for EUR675mn (USD724.6mn).
BMI Economic View
We expect real GDP growth in Denmark will expand by a robust 1.7% in 2016, supported by a steady improvement in external demand, mainly from the eurozone.
BMI Political View
Denmark is poised for a period of unstable party politics with the new one-party minority government unlikely to stay in power for the duration of its term ending in 2019. The ruling centre-right Venstre party will have to seek support from either fellow right-wing parties or opposition leftist parties, making the passage of legislature a difficult and protracted process.
The Denmark Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Denmark Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Denmark pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Denmark, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Danish pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Danish pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Denmark.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.