BMI View: In comparison to other Western European markets, Denmark's pharmaceutical industry is relatively small. However, BMI views Denmark as a highly attractive market for multinational drugmakers as a result of the country's stringent regulations, business transparency and high public health expenditure. The country's ageing population will be a key factor in driving medicine sales over the long term, although the possibility of further drug price cuts poses a downside risk to our forecast, as the government will look to manage rising healthcare costs.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: DKK20.87bn (USD3.75bn) in 2014 to DKK21.30bn (USD3.14bn) in 2015; +2.1% in local currency terms and -16.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from last quarter.
Healthcare: DKK198.36bn (USD35.66bn) in 2014 to DKK201.98bn (USD29.82bn) in 2015; +1.8% in local currency terms and -16.4% in US dollar terms . Forecast in line with last quarter.
Denmark scored 68.1 out of a total 100 in our index for Q4 2015 and was positioned seventh out of the 15 markets in our Western Europe matrix, just below Finland (68.8). The country's score is boosted by a strong regulatory environment, although a major factor affecting the business environment for drugmakers is Denmark's small overall market size.
Key Trends And Developments
In August 2015, Novo Nordisk announced that it would not pursue an expanded indication for Victoza (liraglutide) as an add-on treatment to insulin for type 1 diabetes following disappointing Adjunct One study results. The study showed that giving Victoza along with insulin improved blood glucose control compared with placebo, but increased the risk of treatment-emergent hypoglycaemia.
In August 2015, Danish drugmaker Lundbeck announced it would cut 1,000 jobs and reduce costs by DKK3bn (USD447.98mn) to regain profitability. As part of the restructuring, the company reclassified previous research and...
The Denmark Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Denmark Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Denmark pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Denmark, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Danish pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Danish pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Denmark.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.