Denmark Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 13 April 2015

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Denmark Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: Denmark has a relatively small pharmaceutical market compared to many of its Western European counterparts. Despite the country ' s economy returning to growth in 2014, pharmaceutical sales are not expecting to follow suit until 2016. In the longer term, Denmark ' s aging population will have an unprecedented effect on the market with an older generation driving medicine and healthcare expenditure. However, in-line with many other European governments, the Danish government will increasingly off-set the positive effects of higher demands with price control mechanisms that dampens our outlook for the market.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: DKK19.92bn (USD3.16bn) in 2014 to DKK19.65bn (USD2.90bn) in 2015; -1.4%% in local currency terms and -8.2%% in US dollar terms.

  • Healthcare: DKK210.29bn (USD33.34bn) in 2014 to DKK214.15bn (USD31.61bn) in 2015; +1.8% in local currency terms and -5.2% in US dollar terms .

Risk/Reward Index: Denmark scored 66.9 out of a total 100 in our index for Q215 and was positioned 10th in our Western Europe matrix, just below Norway (67.6). The country's strong emphasis on the regulatory environment is a draw, although a major factor affecting the business environment for drugmakers is its small overall market size.

Key Trends And Developments

February 2015

Novo Nordisk's Q414 results came in line with analyst expectations, with year-on-year (y-o-y) revenue growth of 13.3% in Danish kroner terms to DKK24.59bn (USD3.75bn). Net income rose y-o-y by 7.9% in local currency terms and 4.2% in US dollar terms to DKK6.53bn (USD990mn).

January 2015

The board of Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk is seeking to appoint a new CEO to replace Lars Rebien Soerensen, reports Berlingske. Soerensen plans to step down as soon as a new CEO has been appointed, and is unwilling to continue through to the end of his contract in 2019. Speculation about the succession plan intensified when C Kaare Schultz was promoted and given the...

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
7
SWOT Analysis
9
France Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT
9
France Political SWOT
10
France Economic SWOT
10
France Business Environment SWOT
11
Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings
12
Table: Western Europe Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Risk/Reward Ratings, Q213
12
Rewards
13
Risks
13
Market Summary
15
Regulatory Regime
17
Intellectual Property Developments
19
Pricing And Reimbursement Issues
20
Table: France Reimbursement Categories
20
Measures Targeting Pharmaceutical Expenditure
21
Evaluation Of Treatments
23
Pricing And Reimbursement Developments
24
'European Price' Developments
26
OTC Market Developments
26
Industry Trends And Developments
27
Epidemiology
27
Prescribing Habits
28
Healthcare Financing
29
Public Hospitals
30
Ambulatory Care
31
Services
31
Table: Hospital Activity, 2005-2009
31
Table: Hospital Activity in Short-Stay Units, 2009
32
Table: Diagnostic & Therapeutic Procedures Performed in Public & Private Hospitals, 2009
33
Ambulatory Activity
34
Table: Regional Ranking Of Projected Physicians, 2017
34
Table: Projected Physicians, 2012-2017
35
Latest Figures
35
Table: Medical Personnel, 2005-2010
35
Encouragement Of Generic Drug Use
36
Research And Development
37
Biotechnology Sector
38
Clinical Trials
40
Medical Devices
42
Industry Forecast Scenario
43
Overall Market Forecast
43
Table: France Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data and Forecasts
46
Healthcare Market Forecast
47
Table: France Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts
49
Table: France Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts
49
Table: France Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts
50
Key Growth Factors - Macroeconomic
51
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
58
Table: France Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts
59
Patented Product Market Forecast
59
Table: France Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts
60
Generic Drug Market Forecast
61
Table: France Generics Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts
64
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
65
Table: France Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts
67
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
67
Table: France Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (US$mn)
69
Table: France Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (EURmn)
69
Other Healthcare Data
70
Key Risks To BMI's Forecasts
70
Competitive Landscape
71
Pharmaceutical Industry
71
Table: French Pharmaceutical Companies According To Market Capitalisation
72
Company Developments
73
Foreign Companies
74
Wholesale Sector
75
Pharmacy Sector
75
Company Monitor
77
Local Companies
77
Sanofi
77
Servier
84
Ipsen
86
Multinational Companies
88
Pfizer
88
GlaxoSmithKline
90
Novartis
92
Merck & Co
94
Demographic Outlook
96
Table: France's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
96
Table: France's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
97
Table: France's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
98
Table: France's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
98
Glossary
100
BMI Methodology
102
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts
102
Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
103
Ratings Overview
103
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Indicators
104
Weighting
105
Table: Weighting Of Components
105
Sources
105

The Denmark Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Denmark Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Denmark pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Denmark, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Danish pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Danish pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Denmark.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc