Denmark Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Competitive Landscape.

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Denmark Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Although the Danish pharmaceutical market will post another year of weak growth for 2016, we expect the sector to slowly pick up pace over the next five years. Medicine sales will be driven by an ag e ing population and rising chronic diseases, creating a favourable market for innovative drugmakers. However, rising healthcare costs will likely lead to more government cost-cutting measures focused on the pharmaceutical sector. Furthermore, uncertainty caused by the ' Brexit ' vote and its potential impact on European trade, also dampen the market ' s outlook.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: DKK21.50bn (USD2.82bn) in 2015 to DKK21.68bn (USD3.11bn) in 2016; +0.8% in local currency terms and +10.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast remains in line with last quarter.

  • Healthcare: DKK205.94bn (USD27.01bn) in 2015 to DKK209.62bn (USD30.10bn) in 2016; +1.8% in local currency terms and +11.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards slightly from last quarter.

Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Denmark 2014-2020)
2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI
Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn 3.810 2.820 3.110 3.240 3.450 3.670 3.750
Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP 1.10 1.08 1.07 1.05 1.04 1.03 1.02
Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure 10.5 10.4 10.3 10.2 10.1 10.0 9.9
Health spending, USDbn 36.330 27.010 30.100 31.690 34.050 36.600 37.830

Risk/Reward Index

Denmark scores 72.8 out of a total of 100 in our Q416 Risk/Reward Index, an improvement from last quarter's score of 71.3. The country moves up from ninth position to seventh in our Western Europe matrix, sitting between France (73.1) and Norway (72.5). Denmark's strong emphasis on the regulatory environment is a draw, although a major factor affecting the business environment for drugmakers is the country's small overall market size (Market Expenditure score of 12.0 out of 20). Combined with pressure on pharmaceutical spending, this negatively affects the Industry Rewards score in particular. Nevertheless, given its high per capita drug expenditure (Spending per Capita score of 9.6 out of 12), medicines bring in substantial income for companies operating in the country.

Latest Updates

  • The FDA granted Fast Track Designation (FTD) to Lundbeck and Otsuka Pharmaceutical's idalopirdine for control of the symptoms of mild to moderate Alzheimer's disease (AD).

  • Novo Nordisk is investing DKK400mn (USD59.6mn) in a 500sq m extension of its insulin production plant in Kalundborg, Denmark, which is expected to be completed by the end of 2018.

  • In July 2016, LEO Pharma entered into a strategic partnership with AstraZeneca, covering potential new medicines for atopic dermatitis and psoriasis, two skin diseases where a significant unmet medical need remains.

  • In June 2016, Leo Pharma launched Enstilar (calcipotriol/betamethasone dipropionate), the first fixed-combination foam spray for the treatment of plaque psoriasis for patients 18 years or older in the UK.

  • In May 2016, Novo Nordisk reported net sales for Q116, worth DKK27,212mn (USD4,020mn), up by 8.0% over the DKK25,200mn reported a year earlier.

BMI Economic View

Danish growth will disappoint in 2016 and 2017, as consumers retrench and private investment remains subdued. Additionally, political risk, particularly the potential for a Danish referendum on EU membership, will dampen both household and business sentiment.

BMI Political View

The United Kingdom's referendum vote to leave the European Union in June has reignited debates over Denmark's relationship with the bloc. We have downgraded our short-term political risk score for Denmark to account for a potential disruption in policy continuity in the next 12 months, should the 'Brexit' vote lead to schisms in the Folketing over Denmark's ties to its European partners.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Denmark 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
11
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Denmark 2012-2020)
13
Healthcare Market Forecast
14
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Denmark 2012-2020)
16
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Denmark 2012-2020)
17
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Denmark 2012-2020)
17
Industry Risk/Reward Index
18
Western Europe Risk/Reward Index
18
Denmark Risk/Reward Index
24
Rewards
24
Risks
25
Regulatory Review
26
Pricing Regime
27
Reimbursement Regime
28
Table: Expenditure On Reimbursed Medicines (DKKmn)
30
Market Overview
31
Healthcare Sector
32
Table: Healthcare Resources (Denmark 2010-2015)
32
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Denmark 2010-2015)
32
Table: Healthcare Activity (Denmark 2010-2015)
33
Clinical Trials
33
Epidemiology
35
Competitive Landscape
37
Research-Based Industry
37
Table: LIF Member Companies
39
Table: Multinational Market Activity
40
Generic Drugmakers
40
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
41
Demographic Forecast
42
Denmark Demographic Forecast
42
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Denmark 1990-2025)
43
Table: Key Population Ratios (Denmark 1990-2025)
43
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Denmark 1990-2025)
44
Table: Population By Age Group (Denmark 1990-2025)
44
Table: Population By Age Group % (Denmark 1990-2025)
45
Glossary
47
Methodology
49
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
49
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
49
Notes On Methodology
50
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
51
Index Overview
52
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
52
Indicator Weightings
53

The Denmark Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Denmark Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Denmark pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Denmark, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Danish pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Danish pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Denmark.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.