East Africa Telecommunications Report

Published 17 June 2015

  • 148 pages
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$1,295.00
East Africa Telecommunications Report

BMI View: Our Q315 East Africa report analyses latest industry, regulatory and macroeconomic developments in the telecoms markets of Burundi, Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, South Sudan and Sudan. The six markets present challenging business environments, including the low spending power of the majority of consumers, high cost of network deployment in rural areas and political instability in some countries. The lack of competition and in some cases unfavourable fiscal regimes will also pose a downside to market growth; as a result penetration and the share of 3G/4G of the mobile market will remain among the lowest in the world.

Key Data

  • Average mobile market growth in the six countries in FY14 was 9.3%. Malawi recorded the highest growth rate, estimated at 16.8%, while Sudan recorded the largest contraction of 5.6%.

  • Average mobile penetration among the six countries was 41.8% at the end of December 2014. Sudan had the highest penetration rate at 71.5% and Ethiopia the lowest at 24%.

  • Average monthly ARPU remained below USD3 in 2014. Only South Sudan recorded ARPU of more than USD5, while Burundi, Malawi and Rwanda reported sub-USD3.5 ARPUs.

Risk/Reward Index

Most of the countries in our East Africa report are underperformers on the regional scale in our Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Index (RRI) table. This is due to a combination of a number of industry specific and macroeconomic factors. The industry specific factors include continued monopoly in the Ethiopian telecoms sector, relatively low ARPUs because of price competition and low income levels, and political and economic uncertainty in some of the markets.

Key Trends And Developments

Burundi-based mobile operator Africa Cellulaire, which offers services under its TEMPO brand, has reportedly closed due to non-payment of a debt worth BIF10bn (USD6.49mn). The commissioner of internal taxes and non-tax revenues, a unit of the Burundi Revenue Department, has stated that TEMPO has not renewed its...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
SWOT
11
Industry Forecast
13
Burundi
13
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Burundi 2012-2019)
13
Ethiopia
16
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Ethiopia 2012-2019)
16
Malawi
19
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Malawi 2012-2019)
19
Rwanda
21
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Rwanda 2012-2019)
21
South Sudan
24
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (South Sudan 2012-2019)
24
Sudan
26
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Sudan 2012-2019)
26
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
29
Industry Risk/Reward Index
29
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Telecoms Risk/Reward Index, Q215
32
Market Overview
34
Burundi
34
Mobile
34
Table: Burundi Mobile Regional Comparison, 2014
34
Fixed Line And Internet
39
Ethiopia
40
Mobile
40
Table: Ethiopia Mobile Regional Comparison, 2014
40
Fixed Line & Internet
45
Malawi
47
Mobile
47
Table: Malawi Mobile Regional Comparison, 2014
47
Fixed Line And Internet
52
Rwanda
54
Mobile
54
Table: Rwanda Mobile Regional Comparison, 2014
54
Fixed Line And Internet
62
South Sudan
66
Mobile
66
Table: Sudan Mobile Regional Comparison 2014
66
Fixed Line And Internet
70
Sudan
73
Mobile
73
Table: Sudan Mobile Regional Comparison, 2014
73
Fixed-Line And Internet
78
Mobile Content
80
Table: Selected Value-Added Services Developments, October 2014-January 2015
83
Regulatory Development
85
Regulatory Overview
85
Table: East Africa Regulatory Environment
85
Burundi
85
Ethiopia
86
Malawi
87
Rwanda
88
South Sudan
89
Sudan
90
Company Profile
91
Zain Sudan
91
Sudatel
95
MTN
99
Table: MTN Indicators, 2013-2014
102
Airtel Africa
104
Table: Selected Key Developments
107
Regional Overview
110
Table: Selected Contracts In Africa, 2014
112
Demographic Forecast
113
Burundi
113
Table: Burundi's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
114
Table: Burundi's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
115
Table: Burundi's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
116
Table: Burundi's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
116
Ethiopia
117
Table: Ethiopia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
118
Table: Ethiopia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
119
Table: Ethiopia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
120
Table: Ethiopia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
120
Malawi
121
Table: Malawi's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
122
Table: Malawi's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
123
Table: Malawi's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
124
Table: Malawi's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
124
Rwanda
125
Table: Rwanda's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
126
Table: Rwanda's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
127
Table: Rwanda's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
128
Table: Rwanda's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
128
Demographic Forecast - Sudan
129
Table: Sudan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
130
Table: Sudan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
131
Table: Sudan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
132
Table: Sudan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
132
Glossary
133
Table: Glossary Of Terms
133
Methodology
135
Industry Forecast Methodology
135
Sources
137
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
137
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators
138
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
139

The East Africa Telecommunications Report features BMI Research's independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Sudan, Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, Burundi's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's East Africa Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Sudan, Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, Burundi.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Sudan, Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, Burundi to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Sudanese, Ethiopian, Malawian, Rwandan, Burundian telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Sudan, Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, Burundi's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Sudan, Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, Burundi.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
  • Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
    Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc