East Africa Telecommunications Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecommunications industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, BMI Industry Forecast Scenario, Telecommunications Risk Reward Index, Market Overview, Regulatory Environment, Company Profiles and Competitive

Why you should buy this report

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position.
×

Sign up to download the East Africa Telecommunications Report

By submitting this form you are acknowledging that you have read and understood our Privacy Policy.

Thank you for your interest

You will shortly receive your free executive summary by email.

East Africa Telecommunications Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: The Q1 2016 East Africa report analyses the latest industry, regulatory and macroeconomic developments within the telecommunications markets in Burundi, Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, South Sudan and Sudan. These six markets are characterised by several challenging business dynamics, including low consumer spending power, high infrastructure costs, large rural populations with poor access and, some cases, politically volatile environments. Limited competition in several of these markets, along with unfavourable fiscal regimes, creates considerable downside risks to market growth. 3G and 4G subscriber penetration rates, as well as their share of total mobile subscriber bases, are expected to remain among the lowest in the world for the foreseeable future.

3G And 4G Subscribers to Increase Share of Total Mobile Market
East Africa Mobile Market Forecasts
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, operators, regional regulators

Latest Updates & Industry Developments

  • Average mobile market growth in the six countries in FY15 was 9.3%. Burundi recorded the highest mobile subscriber growth rate, which was largely due to the launch of services and strong growth reputed by Vietnam's Viettel. Full year growth for Burundi was estimated at almost 67%. However, it is thought that large numbers of Viettel's customers may not be active. Average mobile penetration among the six countries was 46.9% at the end of December 2015. Rwanda had the highest penetration rate at 75.7% and Ethiopia the lowest at 26.4%.

  • 3G and 4G customers represented 15.9% of total mobile subscribers at the end of 2015. This figure is predicted to rise to 23% in 2019.

  • Average monthly ARPU remained below USD3 in 2015. Only South Sudan recorded ARPU of more than USD5, while Burundi, Malawi and Rwanda reported sub-USD3.5 ARPUs.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Industry Forecast
13
Burundi
13
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Burundi 2012-2019)
13
Ethiopia
16
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Ethiopia 2012-2019)
16
Malawi
19
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Malawi 2012-2019)
19
Rwanda
22
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Rwanda 2012-2019)
22
South Sudan
26
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (South Sudan 2012-2019)
26
Sudan
29
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Sudan 2012-2019)
29
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
32
Sub-Saharan Africa Telecoms Risk/Rewards Index - Q4 2015
32
Table: SSA Telecoms Risk/Reward Index - Q4 2015
35
Market Overview
37
Burundi
37
Mobile
37
Fixed Line And Internet
41
Ethiopia
43
Mobile
43
Fixed Line & Internet
49
Malawi
51
Mobile
51
Fixed Line And Internet
57
Rwanda
59
Mobile
59
Fixed Line And Internet
67
South Sudan
70
Mobile
70
Fixed Line And Internet
75
Sudan
76
Mobile
76
Fixed-Line And Internet
84
Regulatory Development
86
Regulatory Overview
86
Table: East Africa Regulatory Environment
86
Burundi
86
Ethiopia
87
Malawi
88
Rwanda
89
South Sudan
90
Sudan
91
Company Profile
92
Zain Sudan
92
Sudatel
96
MTN
100
Table: MTN Indicators, 2013-2014
103
Airtel Africa
105
Table: Selected Key Developments
108
Demographic Forecast
111
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Burundi 1990-2025)
112
Table: Key Population Ratios (Burundi 1990-2025)
112
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Burundi 1990-2025)
113
Table: Population By Age Group (Burundi 1990-2025)
113
Table: Population By Age Group % (Burundi 1990-2025)
114
Demographic Forecast
116
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Ethiopia 1990-2025)
117
Table: Key Population Ratios (Ethiopia 1990-2025)
117
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Ethiopia 1990-2025)
118
Table: Population By Age Group (Ethiopia 1990-2025)
118
Table: Population By Age Group % (Ethiopia 1990-2025)
119
Demographic Forecast
121
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Malawi 1990-2025)
122
Table: Key Population Ratios (Malawi 1990-2025)
122
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Malawi 1990-2025)
123
Table: Population By Age Group (Malawi 1990-2025)
123
Table: Population By Age Group % (Malawi 1990-2025)
124
Demographic Forecast
126
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Rwanda 1990-2025)
127
Table: Key Population Ratios (Rwanda 1990-2025)
127
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Rwanda 1990-2025)
128
Table: Population By Age Group (Rwanda 1990-2025)
128
Table: Population By Age Group % (Rwanda 1990-2025)
129
Sudan Demographic Forecast
131
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Sudan 1990-2025)
132
Table: Key Population Ratios (Sudan 1990-2025)
132
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Sudan 1990-2025)
133
Table: Population By Age Group (Sudan 1990-2025)
133
Table: Population By Age Group % (Sudan 1990-2025)
134
Glossary
136
Table: Glossary Of Terms
136
Methodology
138
Industry Forecast Methodology
138
Sources
140
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
140
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators
141
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
142

The East Africa Telecommunications Report features BMI Research's independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Sudan, Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, Burundi's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's East Africa Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Sudan, Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, Burundi.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Sudan, Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, Burundi to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Sudanese, Ethiopian, Malawian, Rwandan, Burundian telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Sudan, Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, Burundi's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Sudan, Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, Burundi.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
  • Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
    Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.