The Q4 2015 East Africa report analyses latest industry, regulatory and macroeconomic developments within the telecommunications markets in Burundi, Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, South Sudan and Sudan. These six markets represent challenging business dynamics, including low spending power, high infrastructure costs, rural populations with poor access and a politically volatile situation. The lack of competition in some cases coupled with unfavourable fiscal regimes will also pose a downside risk to market growth. The penetration rate and the share of 3G and 4G mobile market will remain along the lowest in the world.
Average mobile market growth in the six countries in FY14 was 9.3%. Rwanda recorded one of the highest growth rates, estimated at 15.8. Average mobile penetration among the six countries was 41.8% at the end of December 2014. Sudan had the highest penetration rate at 71.5% and Ethiopia the lowest at 24%.
Average monthly ARPU remained below USD3 in 2014. Only South Sudan recorded ARPU of more than USD5, while Burundi, Malawi and Rwanda reported sub-USD3.5 ARPUs.
Most of the countries in our East Africa report are underperformers on the regional scale in our Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Index (RRI) table. This is due to a combination of a number of industry specific and macroeconomic factors. The industry specific factors include continued monopoly in the Ethiopian telecoms sector, relatively low ARPUs because of price competition and low income levels, and political and economic uncertainty in some of the markets.
Key Trends And Developments
Sudatel and ZAIN Sudan both announced massive infrastructure development initiatives valued at over USD200mn each to invest in the telecoms infrastructure of Sudan. Both these operators look to gain a broader share of the market and to solidify their respective positions as the market grows and completion heats up.
Burundi-based mobile operator Africa Cellulaire,...
The East Africa Telecommunications Report features BMI Research's independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Sudan, Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, Burundi's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.
BMI's East Africa Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Sudan, Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, Burundi.
- Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Sudan, Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, Burundi to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Sudanese, Ethiopian, Malawian, Rwandan, Burundian telecoms market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Sudan, Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, Burundi's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Sudan, Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, Burundi.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G), internet and broadband markets.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
- Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
- Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
- Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.
BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Market Data Analysis
Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:
- Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
- Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
- Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).
Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.