Ecuador Oil & Gas Report

Published 21 July 2015

  • 113 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Ecuador Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Ecuador's upstream sector will experience very modest growth over the remainder of the decade, but its downstream sector is likely to shift to net exp orter status by 2019. We hold a modest growth outlook for the country as a result of limited upstream prospects amid a lower oil price environment, coupled with continued uncertainty regarding the future of Ecuador's largest untapped oil field

Headline Forecasts (Ecuador 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 527.2 557.1 568.2 579.6 588.3 594.2 606.1
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 157.8 142.0 127.8 153.4 154.1 262.0 393.0
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 255.1 265.2 275.2 285.4 296.0 305.6 314.8
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6

The key trends and developments in Ecuador's oil and gas sector are:

  • Oil production will grow through 2018 from continued efficiency gains, but will be incremental, offset by natural depreciation rates at the country's mature fields. Moreover, a poor above ground environment, including unattractive contract terms and an uncertain regulatory environment, acts as a significant deterrent to greater foreign investment.

  • Recognising a deficit in investment, Ecuador is hoping to improve its image and its options by reaching out to China, which is the largest foreign investor in the country's petroleum sector..

  • An international oilfield consortium is spending USD2.1bn over the next five years to boost oil recovery rates from 17 mature oil fields. In October 2014, Petroamazonas reached a long-term, USD1bn agreement with Halliburton to proved field and project management and drilling services across nine mature...

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Ecuador 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Ecuador 2013-2018)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Ecuador 2019-2024)
11
Upstream Projects
13
Table: Ecuador - Major Upstream Projects
13
Upstream Production - Oil
14
Table: Oil Production (Ecuador 2013-2018)
14
Table: Oil Production (Ecuador 2019-2024)
14
Upstream Production - Gas
20
Table: Gas Production (Ecuador 2013-2018)
20
Table: Gas Production (Ecuador 2019-2024)
20
Refining
23
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Ecuador 2013-2018)
23
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Ecuador 2019-2024)
23
Refined Fuels Consumption
26
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Ecuador 2013-2018)
26
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Ecuador 2019-2024)
26
Gas Consumption
28
Table: Gas Consumption (Ecuador 2013-2018)
28
Table: Gas Consumption (Ecuador 2019-2024)
28
Trade - Oil
30
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ecuador 2013-2018)
30
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ecuador 2019-2024)
30
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ecuador 2013-2018)
32
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ecuador 2019-2024)
32
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Ecuador 2013-2018)
33
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Ecuador 2019-2024)
34
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
35
Table: Gas Net Exports (Ecuador 2013-2018)
35
Table: Gas Net Exports (Ecuador 2019-2024)
35
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
38
Latin America - Risk/Reward Index
38
Table: Latin America Composite Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
39
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Reforms Prompting A Shake Up
40
Table: Latin America Upstream Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
41
Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
44
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
46
Ecuador - Risk/Reward Index
47
Ecuador Upstream Index - Overview
47
Ecuador Downstream Index - Overview
48
Market Overview
49
Ecuador Energy Market Overview
49
Licensing And Regulation
49
Government Policy
49
Licensing Rounds
50
International Energy Relations
51
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
53
Oil Refineries
53
Table: Refineries In Ecuador
54
Service Stations
55
Oil Pipelines
55
Oil Storage
56
Competitive Landscape
57
Competitive Landscape Summary
57
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies
58
Table: Key Upstream Players
58
Table: Key Downstream Players
58
Company Profile
59
Petroecuador/Petromazonas
59
Eni Ecuador
65
Repsol
68
Other Summaries
71
Regional Overview
74
Latin America Oil&Gas Regional Overview
74
Global Industry Overview
83
Oil Price Outlook
83
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus Forecasts* WTI And Brent, Front Month - USD/bbl
83
Table: 2015-2016 - Fundamental Pressure On Oil Prices
84
Appendix
91
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
91
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2013-2018
91
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2019-2024 ( Global 2019-2024)
92
Africa - Regional Appendix
93
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
93
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
94
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
95
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
95
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
96
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
97
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
98
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
98
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
99
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
100
Table: LNG Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
101
Table: LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
101
Ecuador - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecast
102
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Ecuador 2013-2018)
102
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Ecuador 2019-2024)
102
Ecuador - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts
104
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Ecuador 2019-2024)
105
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Ecuador 2013-2018)
106
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Ecuador 2019-2024)
107
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Ecuador 2013-2018)
108
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Ecuador 2019-2024)
109
Glossary
111
Table: Glossary Of Terms
111
Methodology
113
Industry Forecast Methodology
113
Source
115
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
115
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
117
Table: Weighting
118

The Ecuador Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Ecuador including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Ecuador Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Ecuadorian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Ecuador to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Ecuadorian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Ecuadorian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ecuador.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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