Ecuador Oil & Gas Report

Published 30 January 2015

  • 113 pages
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$1,295.00
Ecuador Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Ecuador's upstream sector will experience very modest growth in the remainder of the decade, but its downstream sector could see a transformation from being a net importer of refined products to an exporter of refined products by 2018. Overall, BMI holds a bearish outlook for the country as a result of limited upstream prospects amid a lower oil price environment, coupled with continued uncertainty regarding the future of Ecuador's largest untapped oil field.

Headline Forecasts (Ecuador 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 527.2 545.6 548.4 553.9 559.4 565.0 576.3
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 169.2 152.3 137.1 137.7 275.5 358.1 359.9
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 255.1 265.2 275.2 285.4 296.0 305.6 314.8
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6

The key trends and developments in Ecuador's oil and gas sector are:

  • Oil production will grow through 2018 from continued efficiency gains, but will be incremental, offset by natural depreciation rates at the country's mature fields. Moreover, a poor above ground environment, including unattractive contract terms and an uncertain regulatory environment, acts as a significant deterrent to greater foreign investment.

  • Recognising a deficit in investment, Ecuador is hoping to improve its image and its options by reaching out to China, which is by far the largest foreign investor in the country's petroleum sector, in addition to Qatar.

  • An international oilfield consortium is spending USD2.1bn over the next five years to boost oil recovery rates from 17 mature oil fields. In October 2014, Petroamazonas reached a long-term, USD1bn agreement with...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Ecuador 2012-2018)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Ecuador 2012-2017)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Ecuador 2018-2023)
11
Upstream Projects
13
Table: Ecuador Major Upstream Projects
13
Upstream Production - Oil
13
Table: Oil Production (Ecuador 2012-2017)
14
Table: Oil Production (Ecuador 2018-2023)
14
Upstream Production - Gas
19
Table: Gas Production (Ecuador 2012-2017)
19
Table: Gas Production (Ecuador 2018-2023)
19
Refining
21
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Ecuador 2012-2017)
21
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Ecuador 2018-2023)
22
Refined Fuels Consumption
25
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Ecuador 2012-2017)
25
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Ecuador 2018-2023)
25
Gas Consumption
27
Table: Gas Consumption (Ecuador 2012-2017)
27
Table: Gas Consumption (Ecuador 2018-2023)
27
Trade - Oil
29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ecuador 2012-2017)
29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ecuador 2018-2023)
29
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ecuador 2012-2017)
31
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ecuador 2018-2023)
31
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Ecuador 2012-2017)
32
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Ecuador 2018-2023)
33
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
34
Table: Gas Net Exports (Ecuador 2012-2017)
34
Table: Gas Net Exports (Ecuador 2018-2023)
35
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
37
Ecuador - Risk/Reward Index
37
Ecuador Upstream Ratings
37
Ecuador Downstream Ratings
37
Latin America - Risk/Reward Index
39
Table: Latin America Composite Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
39
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Reforms Prompting A Shake Up
41
Table: Latin America Upstream Risk/Reward Index
42
Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
45
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index
47
Market Overview
49
Ecuador Energy Market Overview
49
Licensing and Regulation
49
Government Policy
49
Licensing Rounds
50
International Energy Relations
51
Table: Ecuador - Major Upstream Projects
52
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
53
Oil Refineries
53
Table: Refineries in Ecuador
54
Service Stations
56
Oil Pipelines
56
Oil Storage
57
Competitive Landscape
58
Competitive Landscape Summary
58
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies
59
Table: Key Upstream Players
59
Table: Key Downstream Players
59
Company Profile
60
Petroecuador/Petromazonas
60
Eni Ecuador
66
Repsol
69
Other Summaries
72
Regional Overview
75
Latin America Overview
75
Global Industry Overview
83
Table: Key US Production Zones Average Full Cycle Breakeven Cost Per Barrel (USD/bbl)
85
Table: Canadian Oil Sands Average Full Cycle Breakeven Cost Per Barrel (USD/bbl)
86
Table: Middle East Onshore Conventional Breakeven Cost Per Barrel, (USD/BBL)
87
Table: Average Fiscal Breakeven Prices Of Key Middle East Producers 2014 (USD/bbl)
87
Appendix
89
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
89
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2012-2017 ( Global 2012-2017)
89
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2018-2023 ( Global 2018-2023)
90
Latin America - Regional Appendix
92
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
92
Table: Oil Consumption - Long Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
92
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
93
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
94
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
94
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
95
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
96
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
96
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
97
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
98
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
98
Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
99
Ecuador - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecast
100
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Ecuador 2012-2017)
100
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Ecuador 2018-2023)
100
Ecuador - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
101
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Ecuador 2012-2017)
101
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Ecuador 2018-2023)
102
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Ecuador 2012-2017)
103
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Ecuador 2018-2023)
104
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Ecuador 2012-2017)
105
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Ecuador 2018-2023)
106
Glossary
108
Table: Glossary Of Terms
108
Methodology
110
Industry Forecast Methodology
110
Source
112
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
112
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
114
Table: Weighting
115

The Ecuador Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Ecuador including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Ecuador Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Ecuadorian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Ecuador to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Ecuadorian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Ecuadorian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ecuador.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc