BMI View: Ecuador's upstream sector will largely suffer from the broader industry downturn through the remainder of the decade, but its downstream sector is likely to shift to net exp orter status by 2019. We hold a downbeat growth outlook for the country as a result of increasingly limited upstream prospects and continued uncertainty regarding the future of Ecuador's largest untapped oil field .
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||527.2||557.1||546.0||540.6||532.5||537.8||548.6|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||157.8||142.0||127.8||153.4||154.1||262.0||393.0|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||254.1||264.2||266.8||270.8||274.9||280.4||286.7|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||0.5||0.7||0.7||0.7||0.7||0.7||0.8|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||0.5||0.5||0.5||0.5||0.6||0.6||0.6|
Latest Updates and Key Forecasts :
Oil production will decline through 2018 as upstream investment declines amid continued low oil prices. This will be compounded by natural depreciation rates at the country's mature fields, despite efforts to increase recovery rates
A poor above ground environment, including unattractive contract terms and an uncertain regulatory environment, acts as a significant deterrent to greater foreign investment.
In the fall of 2014, an international oilfield consortium committed to spend USD2.1bn over the next five years to boost oil recovery rates from 17 mature oil fields. In light of a prolonged industry downturn, we do not expect the full amount of funds will be allocated, limiting potential upside over the next five years.
Petroecuador's crude supply agreement with PTT in August 2015 will not propel crude output growth given the NOC's continued focus on costly downstream and midstream projects. Increased trade between the two countries underscores the growing importance of Asian markets to Latin American crude exporters.
Ecuador is growing increasingly reliant on Chinese financing amid a lower oil price environment. China and Ecuador have reportedly come to terms on a funding agreement that will bring the 300,000b/d Refineria del Pacifico online by 2019. Given the strengthening of this accord in January 2015, we feel confident enough to add this capacity to our refining forecast.
With respect to gas, what little activity there is remains centred around bolstering output from Block 6 in the Gulf of Guayaquil. While there has been some investment into further exploration, and we have factored in gains from associated production, we believe that production of natural gas will remain minimal such that output will begin to slip toward the mid-point of our forecast period.
The Ecuador Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Ecuador including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Ecuador Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Ecuadorian oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Ecuador to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Ecuadorian oil and gas market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Ecuadorian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ecuador.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:
- Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
- Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
- Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.
BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook
Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.
The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.