Ecuador Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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Ecuador Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Ecuador's upstream sector will suffer from the broader industry downturn through the remainder of the decade, but its downstream sector will shift to net exp orter status by 201 8 . Our modest growth forecast is as a result of increased private sector participation, but continued uncertainty regarding greenfield investments temper our enthusiasm.

Headline Forecasts (Ecuador 2014-2020)
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 557.5 549.9 567.4 579.9 593.3 608.1 617.2
Refined products production, 000b/d 142.1 127.9 172.6 173.5 294.9 442.4 444.6
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 264.2 266.8 270.8 274.9 280.4 286.7 293.9
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 46.50 57.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

Latest Updates and Key Forecasts

  • We maintained our forecast for Ecuadorian liquids production to account for increased investment into its mature oil assets. We now expect the country to return to growth in 2016 as oilfield services (OFS) providers boost output from existing projects.

  • The controversial ITT heavy oil field project advanced in July following the spudding of Petroamazonas' first well in the Tiputini field in April. Located on the fringe of the Yasuni National Park, the development of Block 43 in the Amazon rainforest has continued despite strong grassroots and international opposition to the project given the environmentally sensitive nature of the area. In July, the government announced the field held more that 750mn bbl more than originally expected, encouraging our more optimistic reserve outlook. First oil from the area is expected before the end of the year, with production expected to reach 20,000b/d by December.

  • The start-up of the modernised Esmeraldas refinery in Q415 is weighing on Ecuador's net crude exports as imported supplies are used to feed the facility.

  • With respect to gas, activity remains centred on bolstering output from Block 6 in the Gulf of Guayaquil. While there has been some investment into further exploration, we believe production of natural gas will remain minimal such that output will begin to slip toward the mid-point of our forecast period.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Ecuador 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
8
Oil & Gas SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Upstream Exploration
10
Latest Updates
10
Structural Trends
10
Upstream Projects
13
Table: Ecuador - Key Upstream Projects
13
Upstream Production - Oil
14
Latest Updates
14
Structural Trends
14
Table: Oil Production (Ecuador 2014-2019)
21
Table: Oil Production (Ecuador 2020-2025)
21
Upstream Production - Gas
22
Latest Updates
22
Structural Trends
22
Table: Gas Production (Ecuador 2014-2019)
24
Table: Gas Production (Ecuador 2020-2025)
24
Refining
25
Latest Updates
25
Structural Trends
25
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Ecuador 2014-2019)
27
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Ecuador 2020-2025)
28
Refined Fuels Consumption
29
Latest Updates
29
Structural Trends
29
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Ecuador 2014-2019)
30
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Ecuador 2020-2025)
31
Gas Consumption
32
Latest Updates
32
Structural Trends
32
Table: Gas Consumption (Ecuador 2014-2019)
33
Table: Gas Consumption (Ecuador 2020-2025)
34
Trade - Oil
35
Crude Oil Trade: Latest Updates
35
Crude Oil Trade: Structural Trends
35
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ecuador 2014-2020)
37
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ecuador 2020-2025)
37
Fuels Trade: Latest Updates
37
Fuels Trade: Structural Trends
37
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ecuador 2014-2019)
38
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ecuador 2020-2025)
39
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
40
Latest Updates
40
Structural Trends
40
Table: Gas Net Exports (Ecuador 2014-2019)
42
Table: Gas Net Exports (Ecuador 2020-2025)
42
Industry Risk/Reward Index
43
Latin America - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
43
Table: Latin America - Composite Risk/Reward Index
43
Composite RRI: Industry Downturn Weighs On Regional Performance
44
Upstream: Few Shifts, But Changes Loom
45
Table: Latin America - Upstream Risk/Reward Index
46
Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
48
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index
50
Ecuador - Risk/Reward Index
51
Ecuador Upstream Index
51
Ecuador Downstream Index
52
Market Overview
53
Ecuador Energy Market Overview
53
Licensing And Regulation
53
Government Policy
53
Licensing Rounds
54
International Energy Relations
55
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
57
Oil Refineries
57
Table: Refineries In Ecuador
58
Service Stations
59
Oil Pipelines
59
Oil Storage
60
Competitive Landscape
61
Table: Key Upstream Players
62
Table: Key Downstream Players
62
Company Profile
63
Petroecuador/Petromazonas
63
Table: Major Upstream Assets in Ecuador
64
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn)
64
Regional Overview
66
Latin America Overview
66
Table: Latin America Oil And Gas Production, Refining Capacity And Trade, 2014-2025
75
Glossary
77
Table: Glossary Of Terms
77
Methodology
79
Industry Forecast Methodology
79
Source
81
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
81
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
83
Table: Weighting
84

The Ecuador Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Ecuador including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Ecuador Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Ecuadorian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Ecuador to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Ecuadorian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Ecuadorian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ecuador.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.