Egypt Agribusiness Report

Published 11 February 2015

  • 112 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Egypt Agribusiness Report

BMI View: Egypt is the world's largest wheat importer and will benefit from the recent sell-off in grain prices. The country is in the process of refor ming its food subsidy programme in an effort to make the process more efficient. We believe that particularly good growth prospects exist in the country's livestock and dairy industries, as cattle herds continue to recover from a foot and mouth outbreak in 2012. These sectors will also benefit from lower global grain prices relative to the last several years, and an improving domestic economic situation.

Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (2011-2019)

Key Forecasts

  • Wheat production growth 2013/14 to 2018/19 : 3.6 % to 8.5 mn tonnes. This will largely be the result of government efforts to increase area planted and yields in the coming years.

  • Sugar consumption growth to 2018 /19 : 10.3 % to 3. 2 mn tonnes. This will be driven by growth in the local confectionery and soft drinks industries on the back of population and income growth.

  • Poultry production growth to 2018/19 : 13.9 % to 1.1mn tonnes. Poultry production will grow strongly due to high demand and development in poultry rearing methods.

  • Real GDP growth: 3.0 % year-on-year (y-o-y) in 201 5 (up from 2.2% y-o-y in 2014).

  • Consumer inflation: average 7.6 % y-o-y in 201 5 (up from 7.1% y-o-y in 2014).

  • BMI U niverse A gribusiness M arket V alue: 1.1 % y-o-y increase to USD28.6bn in 2014/15; forecast to increase on average 2.7% annually between 2014/15 and 2018/19.

Industry Outlook

Wheat production will marginally increase by 0.6% y-o-y in 2015/16 to 8.3mn tonnes, as low import prices from the Black Sea region and the EU will limit domestic production. Strong production in the aforementioned regions in 2014/15 has led to high stocks of the grain, while we also forecast historically good production in 2015/16. This will ensure that Egypt has a steady supply of wheat available to import. Corn imports...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Agribusiness
10
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Grains Outlook
14
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Egypt 2013-2018)
15
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Egypt 2013-2018)
16
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Egypt 2008-2013)
20
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Egypt 2008-2013)
20
Rice Outlook
22
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Egypt 2012-2018)
22
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Egypt 2008-2013)
25
Livestock Outlook
26
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Egypt 2013-2018)
27
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Egypt 2013-2018)
27
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Egypt 2008-2013)
29
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Egypt 2008-2013)
29
Dairy Outlook
30
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Egypt 2013-2018)
31
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Egypt 2013-2018)
31
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Egypt 2013-2018)
32
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Egypt 2008-2013)
35
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Egypt 2008-2013)
35
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Egypt 2008-2013)
35
Sugar Outlook
37
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Egypt 2013-2018)
38
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Egypt 2008-2013)
41
Commodities Price Analysis
43
Monthly Softs Strategy
43
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
53
Monthly Grains Strategy
53
Table: Selected Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
62
Upstream Analysis
63
Africa GM Outlook
63
Table: Farm Size By Region
66
Africa Machinery Outlook
69
Table: Number Of Tractors Per 1,000ha Of Arable Land
69
Table: Farm Size By Region (2012)
73
Table: South Africa - New Tractor Sales Current Market Share In 2014 (%)
74
Africa Fertiliser Outlook
75
Downstream Analysis
82
Food
82
Food Consumption
82
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Egypt 2011-2018)
83
Confectionery
84
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Egypt 2011-2018)
84
Dairy
85
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Egypt 2011-2018)
86
Pasta
87
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Egypt 2011-2018)
88
Fish
88
Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Egypt 2011-2018)
88
Meat
89
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Egypt 2011-2018)
90
Frozen Fruits & Vegetables
90
Table: Frozen Fruit & Vegetables Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Egypt 2011-2018)
91
Oils & Fats
91
Table: Oils & Fats Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Egypt 2013-2018)
92
Drink
95
Alcoholic Drinks
95
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Egypt 2011-2018)
96
Soft Drinks
97
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade (Egypt 2011-2018)
98
Hot Drinks
100
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Egypt 2011-2018)
101
Mass Grocery Retail
102
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format, %
103
Regional Overview
104
Competitive Landscape
111
Table: Main Agribusiness Players
111
Demographic Forecast
112
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Egypt 1990-2025)
113
Table: Key Population Ratios (Egypt 1990-2025)
113
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Egypt 1990-2025)
114
Table: Population By Age Group (Egypt 1990-2025)
115
Table: Population By Age Group % (Egypt 1990-2025)
116
Methodology
117
Industry Forecast Methodology
117
Sector-Specific Methodology
118

The Egypt Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Egypt Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc