BMI View: We have not made significant changes to our forecasts in this quarter's update. We retain our view that Egypt will face growing production deficits in grains and meat , as it focuses on export-oriented cash crops , while the dairy sector will benefit from sustained private investment. Leading up to 2020 , an expanding population and rising disposable incomes will support consumption growth in sugar and dairy products. Moreover, rice and beef consumption will benefit from the greater range of products available under the new food subsidy scheme. The real challenge s that Egypt faces throughout the long run are water shortages and a dire need to improve farming mechanisms to conserve water for sustained irrigation purposes.
|Agribusiness Market Value|
|BMI Market Value By Commodity (2011-2019)|
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: FAO, BMI|
Wheat production by 2020: 8.42mn tonnes. Wheat production will be constrained by a greater amount of arable land being devoted to export-oriented crops.
Rice consumption by 2020: 4.35mn tonnes. This will come from lower bread consumption induced by the new food subsidy scheme.
Sugar consumption by 2020: 3.04mn tonnes. An expanding population and rising disposable incomes will stimulate demand for soft drinks and confectionary goods.
Poultry production by 2020: 1mn tonnes. The recent avian flu outbreak will only cause temporary disruptions in the poultry sector as it is largely due to rural backyard poultry infections, leaving industrial production intact.
Real GDP growth: 2.6% in 2016 (no increase in rate from 2015).
Consumer price inflation: 12.3% average in 2016 (down from 10.4% y-o-y in 2015).
BMI universe agribusiness market value: 0.8% increase to USD26.97bn in 2015/16; forecast to increase on average around 2.4% annually between 2014/15 and 2019/20.
In Summer 2016, Egypt announced that it would purchase a significant amount of wheat from Russia and Ukraine by public tender after refusing to procure the commodity from France, Canada and Poland due to concerns about ergot fungus. Egypt, one of the world's largest wheat importers, has expressed concerns about the ergot fungus. The agricultural ministry is studying the impacts of ergot virus and is set to issue its results later in the year.
The Egyptian agricultural sector faces the threat of prolonged droughts and diminishing water supply for irrigation purposes, a challenge that looms large on the long-term horizon. The promotion of increased water efficiency is crucial to the survival of the Egyptian agricultural sector and new methods of using mechanised raised beds are proving vital. The raised bed farming technology appears promising as it can save up to 75% water compared to traditional irrigation techniques, along with the added benefit of reduced farming costs and higher yields.
Furthermore, the government is legalising the status of investors and farmers in the Sinai Peninsula to promote the agricultural sector in that region. Agricultural minister Essam Fayed on April 23 2016 pledged to swiftly undertake efforts to develop South Sinai's farming capabilities as the country grapples with an uncertain long-term agricultural future.
The Egypt Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.
BMI's Egypt Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.
BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts
Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.
- Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
- Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
- Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
- BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.
BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis
Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.
Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.
Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.
The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.
Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market
Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean
Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.
The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.