Egypt Agribusiness Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the agribusiness industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, Supply & Demand Forecasts, Commodity Price Analysis and Company Profiles.

Why you should buy this report

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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Egypt Agribusiness Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: We have not made significant changes to our forecasts in this quarter's update. We retain our view that Egypt will face growing production deficits in grains and meat , as it focuses on export-oriented cash crops , while the dairy sector will benefit from sustained private investment. Leading up to 2020 , an expanding population and rising disposable incomes will support consumption growth in sugar and dairy products. Moreover, rice and beef consumption will benefit from the greater range of products available under the new food subsidy scheme. The real challenge s that Egypt faces throughout the long run are water shortages and a dire need to improve farming mechanisms to conserve water for sustained irrigation purposes.

Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (2011-2019)
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: FAO, BMI

Key Forecasts

  • Wheat production by 2020: 8.42mn tonnes. Wheat production will be constrained by a greater amount of arable land being devoted to export-oriented crops.

  • Rice consumption by 2020: 4.35mn tonnes. This will come from lower bread consumption induced by the new food subsidy scheme.

  • Sugar consumption by 2020: 3.04mn tonnes. An expanding population and rising disposable incomes will stimulate demand for soft drinks and confectionary goods.

  • Poultry production by 2020: 1mn tonnes. The recent avian flu outbreak will only cause temporary disruptions in the poultry sector as it is largely due to rural backyard poultry infections, leaving industrial production intact.

  • Real GDP growth: 2.6% in 2016 (no increase in rate from 2015).

  • Consumer price inflation: 12.3% average in 2016 (down from 10.4% y-o-y in 2015).

  • BMI universe agribusiness market value: 0.8% increase to USD26.97bn in 2015/16; forecast to increase on average around 2.4% annually between 2014/15 and 2019/20.

Industry Outlook

In Summer 2016, Egypt announced that it would purchase a significant amount of wheat from Russia and Ukraine by public tender after refusing to procure the commodity from France, Canada and Poland due to concerns about ergot fungus. Egypt, one of the world's largest wheat importers, has expressed concerns about the ergot fungus. The agricultural ministry is studying the impacts of ergot virus and is set to issue its results later in the year.

The Egyptian agricultural sector faces the threat of prolonged droughts and diminishing water supply for irrigation purposes, a challenge that looms large on the long-term horizon. The promotion of increased water efficiency is crucial to the survival of the Egyptian agricultural sector and new methods of using mechanised raised beds are proving vital. The raised bed farming technology appears promising as it can save up to 75% water compared to traditional irrigation techniques, along with the added benefit of reduced farming costs and higher yields.

Furthermore, the government is legalising the status of investors and farmers in the Sinai Peninsula to promote the agricultural sector in that region. Agricultural minister Essam Fayed on April 23 2016 pledged to swiftly undertake efforts to develop South Sinai's farming capabilities as the country grapples with an uncertain long-term agricultural future.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
12
Grains Outlook
12
Latest Updates
12
Table: Egypt - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook
12
Table: Risks To Outlook
13
Structural Trends
13
Table: Grain Production & Consumption (Egypt 2012-2020)
17
Rice Outlook
18
Latest Updates
18
Table: Egypt - Rice Production And Consumption Outlook
18
Table: Risks To Outlook
19
Structural Trends
19
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Egypt 2012-2020)
22
Livestock Outlook
23
Latest Updates
23
Table: Egypt - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook
23
Table: Risks To Outlook
24
Structural Trends
24
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Egypt 2012-2020)
27
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Egypt 2012-2020)
28
Dairy Outlook
29
Latest Updates
29
Table: Egypt - Dairy Production And Consumption Outlook
29
Table: Risks To Outlook
29
Structural Trends
30
Table: Dairy Production & Consumption (Egypt 2012-2020)
31
Sugar Outlook
32
Latest Updates
32
Table: Egypt - Sugar Production & Consumption Outlook
32
Table: Risks To Outlook
32
Structural Trends
33
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Egypt 2012-2020)
35
Commodities Price Analysis
36
Global - Global Commodities Strategy
36
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
36
Upstream Analysis
38
Africa GM Outlook
38
Africa Machinery Outlook
45
Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions
45
Africa Fertiliser Outlook
50
Downstream Analysis
57
Food
57
Latest Updates
57
Structural Trends
58
Table: Food Sales (Egypt 2013-2020)
60
Regional Overview
62
Middle East & Africa Regional Overview
62
Competitive Landscape
68
Table: Main Agribusiness Players
68
Demographic Forecast
69
Demographic Outlook
69
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Egypt 1990-2025)
70
Table: Key Population Ratios (Egypt 1990-2025)
70
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Egypt 1990-2025)
71
Table: Population By Age Group (Egypt 1990-2025)
71
Table: Population By Age Group % (Egypt 1990-2025)
72
Methodology
74
Industry Forecast Methodology
74
Sector-Specific Methodology
75

The Egypt Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Egypt Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.