BMI View: Egypt will face growing production deficits in grains and meat as it focuses on export-oriented cash crops while the dairy sector will benefit from sustained private investment. Out to 2019, an expanding population and rising disposable incomes will support consumption growth in sugar and dairy products. Moreover, rice and beef consumption will benefit from the greater range of products available under the new food subsidy scheme.
|Agribusiness Market Value|
|BMI Market Value By Commodity (2011-2019)|
|f = BMI forecast. Source: FAO, BMI|
Wheat production growth to 2018/19: 4.8 % to 8.6mn tonnes. Wheat production will be constrained by a greater amount of arable land being devoted to export-oriented crops.
Rice consumption growth to 2019: 10.3% to 4.4 mn tonnes. This will come from lower bread consumption induced by the new food subsidy scheme.
Sugar consumption growth to 2019: 10.3 % to 3.2mn tonnes. An expanding population and rising disposable incomes will stimulate demand for soft drinks and confectionary goods.
Poultry production growth to 2018/19: 13.9 % to 1.1mn tonnes. The recent avian flu outbreak will only cause temporary disruptions in the poultry sector as it is largely due to rural backyard poultry infections, leaving industrial production intact.
Real GDP growth: 4 .1% in 2016 (up from 2.6% in 2015).
Consumer price inflation: 9.0% average in 2016 (down from 11.0% y-o-y in 2015).
BMI universe agribusiness market value: 3.7% increase to USD29.9bn in 2015/16; forecast to increase on average 2.9% annually between 2014/15 and 2018/19.
Better water management practices and higher-yielding wheat varieties will support 2015/16 wheat output. Out to 2018/19, wheat production will be constrained by a greater amount of arable land being devoted to export-oriented crops. Over the period, wheat consumption will be impacted by the country's new food subsidy scheme inducing the diversification of diets away from bread. At the same time, growth in poultry production will support corn consumption.
Poultry and beef production will post solid growth in 2015/16 due to a marginal impact from the recent avian flu outbreak and renewed imports of cattle from Australia. Out to 2019, the poultry sector will grow faster as it is less exposed to a weak Egyptian pound and higher feed costs since it requires less input per animal than beef.
Egyptian milk production in 2015/16 will grow strongly as multinational food and drink firms increase investment into the region. Similarly, out to 2018/19 private investment will fuel further production growth. Over the period, the recovery in the Egyptian economy will help disposable incomes rise and therefore increase demand for more value-added dairy goods.
Egyptian sugar production will slightly increase in 2015/16 as sugarcane acreage remains stable and sugar beet acreage grows at the expense of cotton. Out to 2019, production will strengthen as the government is keen to expand sugar output in the country. However, an expanding population and rising disposable incomes will stimulate demand for sugar, particularly imported sugar. Therefore, Egyptian imports of raw sugar will remain on an uptrend in the coming years.
The Egypt Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.
BMI's Egypt Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.
BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts
Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.
- Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
- Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
- Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
- BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.
BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis
Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.
Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.
Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.
The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.
Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market
Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean
Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.
The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.