Egypt Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Egypt Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • 2016 will be a relatively positive year for the Egyptian economy, as the currency stabilises and investment returns to the county.

  • The fiscal and net export position will improve significantly on the back of fuel subsidy reform. Subsidy cuts will likely be watered down if public unrest occurs on a significant scale, however, the bulk of reform will remain in place.

  • Hikes to domestic energy prices will push consumer price inflation back into the double digits by the end of the year.

  • Egypt's geopolitical importance will ensure that even if an IMF agreement is delayed for longer than expected, further foreign aid commitments will materialise around the turn of the year. Western powers such as the US and EU have an interest in ensuring the North African country does not experience a more pronounced economic and political crisis. However, it will be donations from the GCC which keeps Egypt afloat this year.

  • Parliamentary elections in Q415 will result in a fragmented legislative with minimal Islamist presence.

Key Risks

  • A failure to secure external financing (whether through the IMF or bilateral aid) raises the risks of a disorderly devaluation of the Egyptian pound.

  • Terror attacks, or disturbances caused by the Muslim Brotherhood could have a significant impact on investment and tourism figures.

Economic Activity (Egypt 2011-2020)
Indicator 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
National Sources/BMI
Nominal GDP, USDbn 230.7 259.5 255.0 282.0 295.3 310.6 327.8 351.0 372.2 394.7
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 1.4 1.3 2.2 2.2 2.6 2.9 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.2
GDP per capita, USD 2,954 3,268 3,159 3,436 3,540 3,666 3,810 4,020 4,201 4,393
Population, mn 83.8 85.7 87.6 89.6 91.5 93.4 95.2 97.0 98.8 100.5
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
Headwinds To Restrain Growth
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
10
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
10
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
11
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
11
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
11
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
12
Fiscal Position To Improve Slowly
12
Structural Fiscal Position
13
External Trade And Investment Outlook
13
Devaluation Required To Avert BoP Crisis
13
TABLE: BREAKDOWN OF IMPORTS IN 2014
14
TABLE: BREAKDOWN OF EXPORTS IN 2014
14
Outlook On External Position
14
Currency Forecast
15
EGP - Substantial Depreciation On The Horizon
15
TABLE: BMI CURRENCY FORECAST
15
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
17
The Egyptian Economy To 2025
17
One Of MENA-s Outperformers
17
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
17
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
19
SWOT Analysis
19
BMI Political Risk Index
19
Domestic Politics
20
Security To Remain Main Concern
20
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
20
Long-Term Political Outlook
21
Four Scenarios For The Coming Decade
21
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
25
SWOT Analysis
25
Operational Risk Index
25
Operational Risk
26
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
26
Trade Procedures And Governance
27
TABLE: MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA - TRADE PROCEDURES AND GOVERNANCE RISK
27
Vulnerability To Crime
28
TABLE: EXPORT AND IMPORT DOCUMENTS
28
TABLE: TRADE PROCEDURES BREAKDOWN
28
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
33
Global Macro Outlook
33
Downside Risks Gather Momentum
33
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
33
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
34
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
34
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
35
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
37

Assess your risk exposure in Egypt with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Egypt with confidence.

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