Egypt Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Egypt Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • 2016 will be a relatively positive year for the Egyptian economy, as the currency stabilises and investment returns to the county.

  • The fiscal and net export position will improve significantly on the back of fuel subsidy reform. Subsidy cuts will likely be watered down if public unrest occurs on a significant scale, however, the bulk of reform will remain in place.

  • Hikes to domestic energy prices will push consumer price inflation back into the double digits by the end of the year.

  • Egypt's geopolitical importance will ensure that even if an IMF agreement is delayed for longer than expected, further foreign aid commitments will materialise around the turn of the year. Western powers such as the US and EU have an interest in ensuring the North African country does not experience a more pronounced economic and political crisis. However, it will be donations from the GCC which keeps Egypt afloat this year.

  • Parliamentary elections in Q415 will result in a fragmented legislative with minimal Islamist presence.

Key Risks

  • A failure to secure external financing (whether through the IMF or bilateral aid) raises the risks of a disorderly devaluation of the Egyptian pound.

  • Terror attacks, or disturbances caused by the Muslim Brotherhood could have a significant impact on investment and tourism figures.

Economic Activity (Egypt 2011-2020)
Indicator 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
National Sources/BMI
Nominal GDP, USDbn 230.7 259.5 255.0 282.0 295.3 310.6 327.8 351.0 372.2 394.7
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 1.4 1.3 2.2 2.2 2.6 2.9 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.2
GDP per capita, USD 2,954 3,268 3,159 3,436 3,540 3,666 3,810 4,020 4,201 4,393
Population, mn 83.8 85.7 87.6 89.6 91.5 93.4 95.2 97.0 98.8 100.5
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks To Outlook
5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Political Risk Index
7
Political Outlook
8
Insurgency To Remain Greatest Threat To Government
8
table: Political Overview
8
Long-Term Political Outlook
9
Four Scenarios For The Coming Decade
9
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
13
SWOT Analysis
13
BMI Economic Risk Index
13
Economic Activity
14
Fragile Growth To Solidify
14
table: Components Of GDP (% Of Total)
14
table: Private Consumption Forecasts
14
table: Government Consumption Forecasts
15
table: Fixed Investment Forecasts
15
table: Net Exports Forecasts
16
Fiscal Policy
17
Fiscal Position Starting To Improve
17
table: Fiscal Policy
17
Balance Of Payments
18
Slow But Steady Turnaround Ahead
18
table: Current Account
18
Exchange Rate Policy
20
EGP - Slower Pace Of Depreciation Coming
20
table: BMI Currency Forecast
20
Islamic Finance
21
Islamic Banking: Slowdown In Place
21
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
25
The Egyptian Economy To 2024
25
Policy Uncertainty Weighs On Outlook
25
table: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
25
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
27
SWOT Analysis
27
Operational Risk Index
27
Operational Risk
28
table: Operational Risk
28
Market Size And Utilities
29
table: Middle East and North Africa - Market Size And Utilities Risk
30
Interstate Security Risk
33
table: Middle East And North Africa - Interstate Security Risk
34
Chapter 5: Key Sectors
37
Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
37
table: Pharmaceutical Sales , Historical Data And Forecasts
38
table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts
39
Telecommunications
40
table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts
41
Other Key Sectors
47
Table: Oil and Gas Sector Key Indicators
47
Table: Defence and Security Sector Key Indicators
47
Table: Infrastructure Sector Key Indicators
47
Table: Food and Drink Sector Key Indicators
48
Table: Autos Sector Key Indicators
48
Table: Freight Key Indicat ors
48
Chapter 6: BMI Global Macro Outlook
49
Global Outlook
49
Assessing The Aftermath Of Three Key Events
49
Table: Global Assumptions
49
Table: Developed States , Real GDP Growth, %
50
Table: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
50
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth , %
51

Assess your risk exposure in Egypt with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Egypt with confidence.

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  • Delivery of the report in print, PDF and online formats
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