Egypt Freight Transport Report

Published 27 January 2015

  • 67 pages
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$1,295.00
Egypt Freight Transport Report

O ngoing improvement in Egypt's political situation, with the election of President Sisi having brought in a level of stability not seen since 2011, will see the Egyptian freight transport sector enjoy continued expansion in 2015. While this will not be spectacular, we expect positive growth in volumes across all freight modes, supported by an improving consumer outlook, a recovery in the tourism sector, and increased construction. Crucially, the outlook is not only brighter for the near term, with significant investment into tran sport infrastructure ensuring continued growth over future years.

Headline Industry Data

  • Air freight handled at Cairo International Airport is set to grow by 3.0% in 2015 to reach 399,780 tonnes. Over the medium term to 2019, growth will average 4.2% per annum.

  • Rail cargo will enjoy expansion of 2.0% in 2015, with growth projected to average 2.5% over the medium term.

  • Total tonnage throughput at East Port Said is forecast to grow by 2.8% to 24.46mn tonnes in 2015, and to average 3.8% per annum to 2019.

  • Total trade is forecast to see growth in real terms of 3.2% in 2015, picking up in 2016 to 4.7%.

Key Industry Trends

An Improving Economic Outlook Will Boost Activity: We retain our expectation for real GDP growth of 3.0% in FY2015 and 3.8% in FY2016 from an estimated 2.25 in FY2014. Our forecasts are a notable uptick compared with previous years, and this will support growth on the country's freight transport network. Fixed investment in particular is expected to drive economic growth over the next two years, and bulk and project cargos needed for key infrastructure projects will support volume growth through Egypt's ports and on its road and rail networks. The recovering tourism sector will boost volumes of containers and air freight, both through goods needed to serve visitors' needs, but also as Egyptians' spending power increases.

Suez Canal Will Boost Egyptian Volumes: Throughput at the Suez Canal will remain...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Freight Transport
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
14
Industry Forecast
15
Air Freight
15
Table: Air Freight - Cairo International Airport And Egypt, 2011-2018
17
Rail Freight
17
Table: Rail Freight (Egypt 2011-2018)
18
Maritime Freight
18
Table: Maritime Freight (Egypt 2011-2018)
19
Trade
20
Table: Trade Overview (Egypt 2011-2018)
20
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Egypt 2011-2018)
21
Table: Egypt's Main Import Partners (USDmn)
22
Table: Egypt's Main Export Partners (USDmn)
23
Market Overview
24
Industry Trends And Developments
29
Inland Waterway
29
Maritime
29
Logisitics
31
Air
31
Company Profile
32
EgyptAir Cargo
32
Egypt Transport & Commercial Services SAE (Egytrans)
35
Political Outlook
38
Domestic Politics
38
Constitution Marks Break From The Past
39
Sisi To Run For & Win Presidency
40
Presidential Elections To Be Held First
41
Table: Egypt - Political Outlook
43
Long-term Political Outlook
44
Oil Price Outlook
51
Bunker fuel
51
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Bunker Fuel Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
51
The Storm Clears For Shipping
52
(Slightly) Better Times For Bunker Prices
54
Long-Term Threats Linger
55
Pressing Rotterdam & New York Harder
56
Risks To Outlook
57
Jet Fuel
58
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Jet Fuel Price Forecast, USD/bbl
58
Better Outlook Tames Price Fall
58
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volume Growth
60
Risks To Outlook
63
Diesel
64
Table: BMI Crude Oil And Diesel Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
64
New York's One-Off Heat Up
64
NY: Short-Term Diesel Price Support Expected
67
Rotterdam: Green Policies Drive Diesel Forward
71
Singapore: Diesel Support With Power Risks
73
Risks To Outlook
77
Macroeconomic Forecasts
78
Economic Analysis
78
Table: Egypt - Gdp By Expenditure
83
Demographic Forecast
84
Table: Egypt's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
85
Table: Egypt's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
86
Table: Egypt's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
87
Table: Egypt's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
87
Methodology
88
Industry Forecast Methodology
88
Sector-Specific Methodology
89
Sources
90

The Egypt Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Egypt Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Egyptian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Egypt to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Egyptian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Egypt.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:

  • Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
  • Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
  • Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Industry Trends and Developments

Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

Political Outlook

The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles*

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc