Egypt Freight Transport Report

Published 08 May 2015

  • 63 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Egypt Freight Transport Report

BMI View: Ongoing improvement in Egypt's political situation - with the election of President el- Sisi having brought in a level o f stability not experienced since 2011 - will see the Egyptian freight transport sector enjoy continued expansion in 2015. While this will not be spectacular, we expect positive growth in volumes across all freight modes, supported by an improving consumer outlook, a recovery in the tourism sector, and increased construction. Crucially, the outlook is not only brighter for the near term, with significant investment into transport infrastructure ensuring continued growth over future years. Air freight will be the growth outperformer, boosted by a recovery in tourist numbers.

Following several quarters of anaemic growth, we see scope for a rapid acceleration in economic activity, giving the country the most positive growth outlook since the onset of the Arab Spring in January 2011. This is reflected in our outlook for economic growth and trade, and also, as a result, the freight transport sector. We retain our expectation for real GDP growth of 3.0% in FY2015 (fiscal year running from July 2014 - June 2015) and 3.8% in FY2016 from an estimated 2.25% in FY2014. Our forecasts are a notable uptick compared with previous years. Trade also is looking up, with a forecast expansion of 3.2% this year, accelerating to 4.7% next year, following FY2014's estimated 2.4%.

Road freight transport is overwhelmingly the most important freight mode in the country. We forecast growth of 2.3% on the 59.92mn tonnes we estimate were transported on the road network in 2014, which would mark the second consecutive year of positive growth following a four-year run of declines from 2010 to 2013, averaging 2.1% annually. This will be aided by an uptick in private consumption levels. Although this will be constrained by fuel subsidy cuts, there will nevertheless be an expansion, supported by the fall in global oil prices. The fuel subsidy cuts will have...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Freight Transport
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Operational Risk
14
Industry Forecast
16
Trade Forecast
16
Table: Trade Overview (Egypt 2012-2019)
17
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Egypt 2012-2019)
18
Table: Main Import Partners (2006-2013)
19
Table: Main Export Partners (2006-2013)
20
Road Freight Forecast
20
Table: Road Freight (Egypt 2012-2019)
23
Rail Freight Forecast
23
Table: Rail Freight (Egypt 2012-2019)
26
Air Freight Forecast
26
Table: Air Freight (Egypt 2012-2019)
28
Company Profile
29
EgyptAir Cargo
29
Egypt Transport & Commercial Services SAE (Egytrans)
32
Political Outlook
35
Domestic Politics
35
Government Support To Limit Disruption
37
Table: Egypt - Political Overview
39
Long-Term Political Outlook
40
Oil Price Outlook
47
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
47
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2013-2018
47
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2019-2024 ( Global 2019-2024)
48
Macroeconomic Forecasts
50
Expenditure Breakdown
52
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Egypt 2012-2019)
56
Demographic Forecast
57
Demographic Outlook
57
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Egypt 1990-2025)
58
Table: Key Population Ratios (Egypt 1990-2025)
58
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Egypt 1990-2025)
59
Table: Population By Age Group (Egypt 1990-2025)
59
Table: Population By Age Group % (Egypt 1990-2025)
60
Methodology
62
Industry Forecast Methodology
62
Sector-Specific Methodology
63
Sources
63

The Egypt Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Egypt Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Egyptian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Egypt to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Egyptian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Egypt.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:

  • Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
  • Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
  • Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Industry Trends and Developments

Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

Political Outlook

The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles*

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc