BMI View: Egypt's economic growth will gather steam over the coming quarters on the back of political stability, pent-up demand and a weaker currency. While this will be good for the country's exports, it does mean that the country's domestic consumer demand for imports of container goods - whether transported by air or in intermodal containers - will falter. However, support in this regard will come from the steady improvement in the tourism sector, where increasing political stability and a weak currency will encourage returning visitors, with their own demand for goods imports.
Although our growth forecasts for volumes carried on Egypt's different freight modes in 2016 and 2017 - namely Air, Road and Rail - are not for spectacular growth, they are nevertheless positive, and will remain so over the course of our forecast period to 2020, due to a relatively upbeat macroeconomic and trade outlook for the country. This is especially the case when compared to recent years, as political turmoil since the ouster of long-serving President Hosni Mubarak in 2011 has led to a dampening in economic expansion.
We expect that the return to growth we estimate for Egyptian road freight volumes in 2015 - which followed two consecutive years of contractions - will consolidate in 2016 and 2017, as a reduction in political risk and a pick-up in the economy as a whole will encourage growth. There remain headwinds, however, and our forecast is for fairly sedate growth of 2.8% this year and 3.1% in 2017.
Rail freight growth will be the slowest of all the freight modes in Egypt in 2016, coming in at 2.4% according to our forecasts. Although political risk has hugely abated, we expect that investors will continue to shy away in the near term. Significant investment will help ensure growth over the medium and longer terms, however.
Air freight will outpace growth in both road and rail freight in 2016 and 2017, and remain the outperformer over the course of our medium-term forecast period to 2020. While domestic consumer demand might be under pressure, low statistical base effects, and a rebound in the tourism sector as political unrest abates, will ensure an expansion in volumes.
Key BMI Forecasts
We forecast total road freight volumes will rise by 2.8% in 2016 to reach 68.09mn tonnes.
We forecast total rail freight volumes will rise by 2.4% in 2016 to reach 4.56mn tonnes.
We forecast total air freight volumes at Cairo International Airport will rise by 3.3% in 2016 to reach 411,220 tonnes.
We forecast total trade value to rise by 8.8% in nominal terms to reach USD121.28bn in 2016.
The top trade partners will be China, the US and Italy.
The Egypt Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
BMI Research's Egypt Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Egyptian freight transport and logistics industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Egypt to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Egyptian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Egypt.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:
- Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
- Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
- Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
- Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
- Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)
Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.
Industry Trends and Developments
Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.
Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.