Egypt Freight Transport Report

Published 11 August 2015

  • 69 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Egypt Freight Transport Report

BMI View: Egypt's economic growth will gather steam over the coming quarters on the back of political stability, pent-up demand and a weaker currency . While this will be good for the country's exports, it does mean that the country's domestic consumer demand for imports of container goods - whether transported by air or in intermodal containers - will falter. However, support in this regard will come from the steady improvement in the tourism sector, where increasing political stability and a weak currency will encourage returning visitors, with their own demand for goods imports.

We expect growth in the Egyptian economy to pick up steam in the coming quarters with fixed investment becoming the key contributor. We retain our expectation for real GDP growth of 3.0% in FY2015 (fiscal year running from July 2014 - June 2015) and 4.1% in FY2016, from an estimated 2.2% in FY2014. Our forecasts are a notable uptick compared with previous years; however, economic expansion on par with the early 2000s at 5-6% is off the cards until 2017 at the earliest. Growth will be increasingly driven by fixed investment as consumer and government spending remain weighed down by fuel subsidy reform. Over the longer term, we see increasing potential for Egypt to sign an IMF Stand-By Arrangement. It has already undertaken some of the required reforms such as cutting energy subsidies and widening the income tax base, and while we do not expect an agreement to be reached in 2015, any positive signals from negotiations over the coming quarters could bolster investment activity next year. This more positive outlook is reflected in our outlook for economic growth and trade, and also, as a result, the freight transport sector.

We forecast that road freight volumes will return to growth in 2015, following two consecutive years of declines. The mode will remain the most important in Egypt's freight transport mix, accounting for the bulk of volumes transported. Ongoing investment in the...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Freight Transport
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Operational Risk
14
Industry Forecast
16
Trade Forecast
16
Table: Trade Overview (Egypt 2012-2019)
17
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Egypt 2012-2019)
18
Table: Main Import Partners (2006-2013)
19
Table: Main Export Partners (2006-2013)
19
Road Freight Forecast
20
Table: Road Freight (Egypt 2012-2019)
22
Rail Freight Forecast
23
Table: Rail Freight (Egypt 2012-2019)
25
Air Freight Forecast
26
Table: Air Freight (Egypt 2012-2019)
28
Market Overview
29
Company Profile
32
EgyptAir Cargo
32
Egypt Transport & Commercial Services SAE (Egytrans)
35
Political Outlook
38
Table: Political Overview - Egypt
42
Long-Term Political Outlook
43
Oil Price Outlook
50
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-Year Forecasts
50
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2013-2018)
50
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2019-2024)
51
Macroeconomic Forecasts
53
Expenditure Breakdown
55
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Egypt 2012-2019)
60
Demographic Forecast
61
Demographic Outlook
61
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Egypt 1990-2025)
62
Table: Key Population Ratios (Egypt 1990-2025)
62
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Egypt 1990-2025)
63
Table: Population By Age Group (Egypt 1990-2025)
63
Table: Population By Age Group % (Egypt 1990-2025)
64
Methodology
66
Industry Forecast Methodology
66
Sector-Specific Methodology
67
Sources
69

The Egypt Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Egypt Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Egyptian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Egypt to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Egyptian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Egypt.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:

  • Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
  • Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
  • Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Industry Trends and Developments

Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

Political Outlook

The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles*

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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