BMI View: We have made significant forecast revisions in this quarter's latest Q1 2017 report update. The severe currency devaluation undertaken by the Central Bank has resulted in a 48% devaluation of the Eqyptian pound against the US dollar as part of an IMF proposed plan for Egypt to acquire USD13bn in loan funding. Our entire forecast outlook has changed from 2017 onwards as US dollar denominated premiums will get hit significantly harder than previously estimated this year. Nevertheless, we are of the opinion that the market is projected to grow at a steady pace, albeit from a low baseline in 2017 when measured in local currency terms. Economic growth has led to a rise in average household income rates, which in turn is heightening demand for life and non-life insurance products alike. Demand for key lines such as motor and health insurance remains high, and we are seeing a broadening in range of products available in the market. Key to growth will be the expansion of takaful and microinsurance products, which will enable ins urers to access the large first- time user market. Barriers to growth remain, however, including a fragmented marketplace and an uncertain regulatory environment. BMI will closely monitor the Egyptian economy and the insurance industry and we will make further forecast revisions as necessary in the next Q2 2017 quarterly update.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, EFSA|
|Gross life premiums written, EGPbn||5.27||6.10||6.88||8.09||9.53||11.21||12.79||14.45|
|Gross life premiums written, EGP, % y-o-y||17.4||15.8||12.9||17.5||17.9||17.7||14.1||13.0|
|Gross life premiums written, USDbn||0.77||0.86||0.89||0.85||0.56||0.62||0.67||0.72|
|Gross life premiums written, USD, % y-o-y||3.7||12.4||3.8||-4.8||-34.1||11.1||8.1||7.3|
|Gross non-life premiums written, EGPbn||7.52||8.20||9.02||10.43||12.10||14.05||15.91||17.88|
|Gross non-life premiums written, EGP, % y-o-y||15.1||9.0||10.0||15.6||16.0||16.1||13.3||12.4|
|Gross non-life premiums written, USDbn||1.09||1.16||1.17||1.10||0.71||0.78||0.84||0.89|
|Gross non-life premiums written, USD, % y-o-y||1.7||5.8||1.2||-6.2||-35.2||9.7||7.3||6.8|
Key Updates And Forecasts
The severe devaluation of the Egyptian pound against global benchmark currencies has entirely altered our forecast for the insurance industry as we account for the severe fall in the price of the Egyptian pound against all other global benchmark currencies. In 2017, we forecast the Egyptian insurance industry to grow by 16.8% in local currency terms while declining by 34.7% in US dollar terms. US dollar denominated growth is expected to turn positive from 2018 onwards as the currency begins to stabilise.
We estimate life premiums to grow by 17.9% in 2017 to reach EGP9.5bn but contract by 34.1% in US dollar terms.
Our forecast outlook sees non-life premiums growing by 16% in 2017, reaching EGP12.1bn. Severe currency devaluation will entail non-life premiums, when measured in USD, contracting by 35.2% to just USD0.7bn.
Takaful insurance is growing rapidly in Egypt. The Secretary-General of Insurance Federation of Egypt, Abdel-Raouf Kotb, recently reported that takaful insurance now accounts for 11.0% of the country's insurance market.
Work continues on drafts of a new health insurance bill which is expected to be presented by government to parliament. The new health insurance law will include the introduction of health insurance payments and will expand coverage, though we note it has come under significant criticism from medical practitioners in the country.
The Egypt Insurance Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the insurance sector. It examines industry developments, key growth drivers and risk management projections, including the macroeconomic situation, government policy, regulatory environment and the level of development and potential for growth, broken down by line. Leading insurers are profiled, covering premiums, products and services and competitive positioning.
BMI's Egypt Insurance Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Egyptian insurance industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent insurance industry forecasts for Egypt to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in Egypt's insurance market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Egypt through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, investments and macroeconomic developments.
- Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the Life and Non-Life segments, the evolving competitive landscape and business operational risks.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the insurance sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2005-2014) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
- Life/non-life Premiums: Total premium growth (USDmn), premium growth (% y-o-y), penetration (% of GDP), density (USD per capita) for Life and Non-Life sectors, claims reinsurance, and assets and liabilities.
- Non-life subsectors: Data on gross written premiums for all major Non-Life segments (motor, transport, property, personal accident, health, general liability and credit financial).
BMI’s Insurance Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (Life and Non-Life) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Growth Drivers & Risk Management Projections
Key data and forecasts to end-2019 focusing on the growth drivers and downside risks to specific insurance lines including:
- Population: Male/female, by age group, active/pensionable/youth population % of total, urban/rural population % of total.
- Freight: Tonnage – air freight, rail freight, road freight, inland waterway.
- Motor: Fleet size by type of vehicle % change y-o-y.
- Epidemiology: Disease Adjusted Life Years and private health expenditure.
Market Overview & Rankings
Illustration of the insurance industry via rankings tables comparing gross written premiums by company (USDmn) and market share (%) for the top 20 players in both Life and Non-Life. This chapter also includes in-depth regional analysis of the market position, business strategies and investment potential of the leading insurance companies.
The insurance Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.