Egypt Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Egypt Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Pledged investment in upstream developments and LNG imports will be crucial to meeting gas demand over the next five years, while t he Zohr discovery could solve Egypt's gas challenges in the long term. Policy slippage with subsidy reform and payment schedules to oil and gas companies, pose the largest risk to slowing the positive momentum.

Headline Forecasts (Egypt 2014-2020)
2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
f = BMI forecast. Source: JODI, EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 678.1 682.3 662.8 655.6 648.9 642.4 636.3
Refined products production, 000b/d 510.8 527.2 554.7 573.6 633.2 645.9 658.8
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 797.4 821.3 855.1 876.7 899.7 908.7 917.8
Dry natural gas production, bcm 48.8 44.3 41.7 46.9 53.4 55.0 56.7
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 48.3 47.8 48.8 55.0 59.4 60.3 61.8
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 46.50 57.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

We highlight the following trends and developments in Egypt's oil and gas sector:

  • The Egyptian government continues to struggle with debt repayments to international oil companies with dues slipping from USD3bn in December 2015 to USD3.2bn in March 2016.

  • The oil ministry is to pay Shell/BG some USD400mn of its over USD1bn recievables by end 2016 to incentivise investment in WDDM phase 9b.

  • The Zohr development is on first priority fast-track with Eni still targeting first production from the initial phase in late 2017. Civil works have reportedly begun.

  • BP's West Nile Delta project (Taurus/Libra) also has fast-track status, targeting start-up of the 12bcm project in early 2017.

  • Eni and BP started production from the Nooros field in the Abu Madi West licence, which produced 65,000boe/d in May and is expected to double over 2016.

  • Gas consumption grew over 3.5% y-o-y in Q116 to 11.7bcm and will be supported by a new 30km pipeline connecting New Ismailia city to the gas grid.

  • The government announced it will be reducing gas supply to industry in August due to an expected increase in gas demand from the power sector - three new gas-fired power plants are expected in June/July 2016.

  • Construction of Egyptian Refining Company's Mostorod facility is over 84% complete, with targeted start-up in mid-2017.

  • Fuels consumption in Q116 was strong recording 7.3% y-o-y growth, gasoline consumption rising 8.0%.

  • Technip will be undertaking a modernisation programme at the Assuit refinery and a 60,000b/d expansion at the MIDOR refinery, with reported support from Italy.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Egypt 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Latest Updates
11
Structural Trends
11
Table: Wellhead Gas Prices
13
Upstream Projects
14
Table: Key Upstream Oil And Gas Projects In Egypt
14
Upstream Production - Oil
19
Latest Updates
19
Structural Trends
19
Table: Oil Production (Egypt 2014-2019)
21
Table: Oil Production (Egypt 2020-2025)
21
Upstream Production - Gas
22
Latest Updates
22
Structural Trends
22
Table: Gas Production (Egypt 2014-2019)
24
Table: Gas Production (Egypt 2020-2025)
25
Refining
26
Latest Updates
26
Structural Trends
26
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Egypt 2014-2019)
29
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Egypt 2020-2025)
29
Refined Fuels Consumption
30
Latest Updates
30
Structural Trends
30
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Egypt 2014-2019)
32
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Egypt 2020-2025)
33
Gas Consumption
34
Latest Updates
34
Structural Trends
34
Table: New Natural Gas Subsidies For Grid Connected Users
35
Table: Gas Consumption (Egypt 2014-2019)
36
Table: Gas Consumption (Egypt 2020-2025)
36
Trade - Oil
37
Latest Updates
37
Structural Trends: Crude Oil
37
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Egypt 2014-2020)
38
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Egypt 2020-2025)
39
Structural Trends: Refined Fuels
39
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Egypt 2014-2019)
40
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Egypt 2020-2025)
40
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
41
Latest Updates
41
Structural Trends
41
Table: Gas Net Exports (Egypt 2014-2019)
43
Table: Gas Net Exports (Egypt 2020-2025)
43
Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
44
Africa - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
44
Table: BMI Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
44
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential
47
Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index
47
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity
50
Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index
50
Egypt - Risk/Reward Index
52
Market Overview
54
Egypt Energy Market Overview
54
Regulation
54
Political Regime
54
Fiscal Regime
56
Table: Egyptian Tax Regime
56
Licensing Rounds
56
Table: International 2016 Bid Round Blocks
56
Table: 2015 Offshore Blocks Awarded
57
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
58
Oil Refineries
58
Table: Refineries In Egypt
58
Service Stations
59
Oil Storage Facilities
59
Oil Terminals/Ports
59
Oil Pipelines
59
LNG Terminals
60
Table: LNG Export Terminals In Egypt
60
Table: LNG Import Terminals
61
Gas Pipelines
61
Competitive Landscape
62
Competitive Landscape Summary
62
Table: Companies Operating In Egypt's Petroleum Sector
62
Table: EGPC
65
Company Profile
66
Apache Energy
66
Latest Updates
66
Table: Major Assets
67
BP Egypt
69
Latest Updates
69
Table: BP Egypt Concessions
70
Table: BP - Key Financial Data - USDbn
71
Eni Egypt
72
Table: IEOC Concessions & Leases - Production Shares
73
Table: Eni - Financial Data
74
Regional Overview
75
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil
75
Table: Africa Oil & Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade
83
Glossary
84
Table: Glossary Of Terms
84
Methodology
86
Industry Forecast Methodology
86
Source
88
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
88
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
90
Table: Weighting
91

The Egypt Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Egypt including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Egypt Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Egyptian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Egypt to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Egyptian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Egyptian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Egypt.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.