Egypt Oil & Gas Report

Published 14 April 2015

  • 166 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Egypt Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: A wave of deals including upstream investment pledges, LNG import contracts and refinery investments, will add major impetus to Egypt's oil and gas sector over the next five years . We forecast gas output to return to growth over the coming years , though expect oil production and refinery output to remain weak .

Headline Forecasts (Egypt 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: IEA, EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 692.5 660.8 628.1 599.9 607.9 608.8 606.4
Dry natural gas production, bcm 58.0 58.0 60.9 59.1 61.4 62.4 64.2
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 58.0 58.0 65.3 67.2 69.1 70.1 71.9
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 443.3 425.6 429.8 434.1 456.7 518.3 523.5
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 816.2 827.6 834.2 841.7 850.2 855.4 864.0

We highlight the following trends and developments in Egypt's oil and gas sector:

  • BP Egypt confirmed its USD12bn investment in the West Nile Delta project over the next five years. The project will add around 12bcm to upstream production from 2017.

  • Eni has outlined investment of USD5bn over the next four years to boost output from its Western Desert, Nile Delta and Sinai concessions. The company expects to add around 9bcm of new gas.

  • BG Group pledged investment of USD4bn in Egypt's upstream over the next four years to increase output from its West Delta Deep Marine project.

  • The government has allowed gas producing companies to negotiate natural gas sales contracts with private firms. This is a positive step towards the deregulation of the market and could attract more investment from smaller firms.

  • RWE Dea made considerable progress over 2014, doubling its gas output. The company is focusing on Egypt as a growth market.

  • In December 2014, Egypt signed its first...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Egypt 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Egypt 2013-2018)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Egypt 2019-2024)
11
Table: Onshore And Offshore International Bid Round 2013 Awards
13
Table: Wellhead Gas Prices
14
Upstream Projects
15
Table: Key Upstream Oil And Gas Projects In Egypt
15
Upstream Production - Oil
23
Table: Oil Production (Egypt 2019-2024)
23
Upstream Production - Gas
26
Table: Gas Production (Egypt 2013-2018)
26
Table: Gas Production (Egypt 2019-2024)
26
Refining
29
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Egypt 2013-2018)
29
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Egypt 2019-2024)
29
Refined Fuels Consumption
33
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Egypt 2013-2018)
33
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Egypt 2019-2024)
33
Gas Consumption
36
Table: Gas Consumption (Egypt 2013-2018)
36
Table: Gas Consumption (Egypt 2019-2024)
36
Table: New Natural Gas Subsidies For Grid Connected Users
37
Trade - Oil
39
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Egypt 2013-2018)
39
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Egypt 2019-2024)
39
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Egypt 2013-2018)
41
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Egypt 2019-2024)
41
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Egypt 2013-2018)
43
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Egypt 2019-2024)
43
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
44
Table: Gas Net Exports (Egypt 2013-2018)
44
Table: Gas Net Exports (Egypt 2019-2024)
44
Industry Risk Reward Index
48
Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
48
Table: BMI's Africa Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Index
49
Above-Ground Risks Dampen Upstream Outlook
51
Table: BMI's Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index
51
Emergent Producers Stumble At Regulatory Hurdles
52
Mature Producers Continue To Underperform Their Potential
53
Falling Oil Price Trims Rewards
53
An Underwhelming Downstream
54
Table: BMI's Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index
54
Egypt - Risk/Reward Index
56
Market Overview
58
Egypt Energy Market Overview
58
Regulation
58
Political Regime
58
Fiscal Regime
59
Table: Egyptian Tax Regime
60
Licensing Rounds
60
Table: Onshore And Offshore International Bid Round 2013 Awards
61
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
62
Oil Refineries
62
Table: Refineries In Egypt
62
Service Stations
64
Oil Storage Facilities
64
Oil Terminals/Ports
64
Oil Pipelines
64
LNG Terminals
65
Table: LNG Terminals In Egypt
65
Gas Pipelines
66
Competitive Landscape
67
Competitive Landscape Summary
67
Table: Key Players - Egyptian Energy Sector
69
Table: Key Upstream Players
69
Table: Key Downstream Players
70
Company Profile
71
Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation
71
BP Egypt
74
Eni Egypt
79
Shell Egypt
84
BG Egypt
88
Apache Energy
94
Dana Gas
99
Edison
105
L1 Energy Dea
108
Other Summaries
112
Regional Overview
122
Africa Oil & Gas Regional Overview
122
Lower Risk Appetite Slowing Exploration Drive
122
Unconventionals: A New Frontier
125
East Africa: Offshore Gas, Onshore Oil
127
High-Risk Continent
128
Downstream Blues
130
Global Industry Overview
133
Global Industry Overview - Five Themes For 2015: Oil & Gas
133
Table: LNG Export Terminals At Pre-FID Stage
138
Appendix
140
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
140
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2013-2018
140
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2018-2023
141
Africa - Regional Appendix
142
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
142
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
143
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
144
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
144
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
145
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
146
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
146
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
147
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
148
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
149
Table: LNG Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
149
Table: LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
150
Egypt - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-Year Forecasts
151
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Egypt 2013-2018)
151
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Egypt 2019-2024)
151
Egypt - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecast
152
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Egypt 2013-2018)
152
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Egypt 2019-2024)
153
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Egypt 2013-2018)
154
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Egypt 2019-2024)
155
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Egypt 2013-2018)
157
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Egypt 2019-2024)
157
Glossary
159
Table: Glossary Of Terms
159
Methodology
161
Industry Forecast Methodology
161
Source
163
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
163
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
165
Table: Weighting
166

The Egypt Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Egypt including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Egypt Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Egyptian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Egypt to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Egyptian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Egyptian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Egypt.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc