Egypt Oil & Gas Report

Published 05 January 2015

  • 164 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Egypt Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: I nvestor sentiment in Egypt has significantly improved as political stability returns and the government begins repayments owed to oil companies. We forecast upside for investment and production in natural gas projects, though note fuels subsidies continue to disincentivise investment in the downstream.

Headline Forecasts (Egypt 2012-2018)
2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 722.8 692.5 690.1 695.5 690.3 685.6 681.3
Dry natural gas production, bcm 60.8 56.1 58.9 62.4 62.1 63.6 65.0
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 53.9 56.1 58.9 63.1 65.5 66.1 68.2
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 473.4 443.3 425.6 425.6 425.6 449.8 449.8
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 792.4 816.2 827.6 834.2 841.7 850.2 855.4
f = BMI forecast. Source: EIA, BMI

Click here to explore data

We highlight the following trends and developments in Egypt's oil and gas sector:

  • In December 2014, BP Egypt announced plans to invest USD12bn in the West Nile Delta project over the next five years. The company is aiming to double its current gas supply.

  • RWE Dea has made considerable progress over 2014, doubling its output. The company is focusing on Egypt as a growth market.

  • In December 2014, Egypt signed its first unconventional oil and gas contract with Shell and Apache in the Western Desert.

  • We forecast Egypt to become a net gas importer in 2015 following the finalisation of a floating LNG import terminal to be installed at the Ain Sokhna port by March 2015.

  • In August 2014, BP announced first gas from its DEKA project at a rate of 0.5bcm, ramping up to 2.3bcm by mid-2015.

  • RWE Dea's NWK well was put in to production by the middle of 2014, adding peak output of around 1.4bcm and 1.6bcm a year. We forecast gas production to return to growth in 2014.

  • A letter...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Egypt 2012-2018)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Egypt 2012-2017)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Egypt 2018-2023)
11
Upstream Projects
14
Table: Key Upstream Oil And Gas Projects In Egypt
14
Upstream Production - Oil
16
Table: Oil Production (Egypt 2018-2023)
16
Upstream Production - Gas
18
Table: Gas Production (Egypt 2012-2017)
18
Table: Gas Production (Egypt 2018-2023)
18
Refining
22
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Egypt 2012-2017)
22
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Egypt 2018-2023)
22
Refined Fuels Consumption
26
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Egypt 2012-2017)
26
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Egypt 2018-2023)
26
Gas Consumption
29
Table: Gas Consumption (Egypt 2012-2017)
29
Table: Gas Consumption (Egypt 2018-2023)
29
Table: New Natural Gas Subsidies For Grid Connected Users
30
Trade - Oil
32
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Egypt 2012-2017)
32
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Egypt 2018-2023)
32
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Egypt 2012-2017)
33
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Egypt 2018-2023)
34
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Egypt 2012-2017)
36
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Egypt 2018-2023)
36
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
37
Table: Gas Net Exports (Egypt 2012-2017)
37
Table: Gas Net Exports (Egypt 2018-2023)
37
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
40
Africa - Risk/Reward Ratings
40
Table: BMI's Africa Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
40
Riches Lie Underground, While Above-Ground Risks Continue To Loom
43
Table: BMI's Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
43
A Dimming Outlook for Emergent Producers
43
Angola in the Ascendant
44
Brightening Horizons to the West
45
Mature Producers Continue to Disappoint
45
An Underwhelming Downstream
47
Table: BMI's Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
47
Egypt - Risk/Reward Ratings
48
Market Overview
50
Egypt Energy Market Overview
50
Regulation
50
Political Regime
50
Fiscal Regime
51
Table: Egyptian Tax Regime
51
Licensing Rounds
51
International Energy Relations
52
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
53
Oil Refineries
53
Table: Refineries In Egypt
54
Service Stations
55
Oil Storage Facilities
55
Oil Terminals/Ports
56
Oil Pipelines
56
LNG Terminals
56
Table: LNG Terminals In Egypt
57
Gas Pipelines
57
Competitive Landscape
59
Competitive Landscape Summary
59
Table: Key Players - Egyptian Energy Sector
60
Table: Key Upstream Players
61
Table: Key Downstream Players
62
Company Profile
63
Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation
63
BP Egypt
66
Eni Egypt
70
Shell Egypt
75
BG Egypt
78
Apache Energy
83
Dana Gas
88
Edison
93
RWE Dea
96
Other Summaries
100
Regional Overview
109
Africa Overview
109
Rising Offshore Interest
109
Unconventionals : New Frontier
112
East Africa: Offshore Gas, Onshore Oil
113
Downstream Blues
115
High-Risk Continent
118
Global Industry Overview
121
Global Energy Market Overview
121
Appendix
127
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
127
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2012-2017
127
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2018-2023
128
Africa - Regional Appendix
130
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
130
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
131
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
131
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
132
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
133
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
133
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
134
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
135
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
135
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
136
Table: LNG Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
137
Table: LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
137
Egypt - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecast
138
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Egypt 2012-2017)
138
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Egypt 2018-2023)
139
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Egypt 2012-2017)
140
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Egypt 2018-2023)
141
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Egypt 2012-2017)
142
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Egypt 2018-2023)
143
Egypt - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
144
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Egypt 2012-2017)
144
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Egypt 2018-2023)
145
Glossary
146
Table: Glossary Of Terms
146
Methodology
148
Industry Forecast Methodology
148
Source
150
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
150
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
152
Table: Weighting
153

The Egypt Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Egypt including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Egypt Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Egyptian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Egypt to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Egyptian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Egyptian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Egypt.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc