Egypt Oil & Gas Report

Published 06 July 2015

  • 167 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Egypt Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: F uel subsid y reforms , improvements in well-head gas prices and the initiation of liberalisation in the gas sector are boost ing interest and investment in Egypt's upstream . We are positive on natural gas production and refining sector improvements, but imports will increase over the next three years.

Headline Forecasts (Egypt 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: IEA, EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 692.5 677.1 644.2 615.8 624.7 625.9 623.6
Dry natural gas production, bcm 57.9 57.8 60.5 58.7 60.7 61.6 63.4
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 50.9 57.4 64.8 66.4 68.4 69.3 71.1
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 443.3 425.6 429.8 434.1 456.7 518.3 523.5
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 738.0 748.3 754.3 761.1 763.4 768.1 775.8

We highlight the following trends and developments in Egypt's oil and gas sector:

  • LNG imports began in April 2015 following the installation of the Hoegh Gallant FSRU at Ain Sokhna. Egypt has LNG import agreements with BP, BG, Trafigura, Noble, Gazprom and Sonatrach.

  • The bidding for a second FSRU is due by the end of H115.

  • A new LNG tender for 96 cargoes over 2016/2017 will be launched later in 2015 to supply the new facility.

  • A third LNG import facility has been mulled for sales of gas to private customers, though no intention to tender has been announced.

  • Apache and Shell are anticipating results from Egypt's first shale gas well in February 2016. The 2 well pilot programme in the Western Desert will cost USD30-40mn.

  • Cyprus' Aphrodite field was declared commercial in June 2015, raising the chances of pipeline gas exports to Egypt.

  • Major oil companies have committed billions in investment to Egypt's upstream including; BP USD12bn over 5 years, Eni USD5bn...

BMI Industry View
9
Table: Headline Forecasts (Egypt 2013-2019)
9
SWOT
11
Oil & Gas SWOT
11
Industry Forecast
13
Upstream Exploration
13
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Egypt 2013-2018)
13
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Egypt 2019-2024)
13
Table: Onshore And Offshore International Bid Round 2013 Awards
14
Table: Wellhead Gas Prices
15
Upstream Projects
17
Table: Key Upstream Oil And Gas Projects In Egypt
17
Upstream Production - Oil
21
Table: Oil Production (Egypt 2013-2018)
21
Table: Oil Production (Egypt 2019-2024)
21
Upstream Production - Gas
24
Table: Gas Production (Egypt 2013-2018)
24
Table: Gas Production (Egypt 2019-2024)
24
Refining
27
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Egypt 2013-2018)
27
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Egypt 2019-2024)
27
Refined Fuels Consumption
31
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Egypt 2013-2018)
31
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Egypt 2019-2024)
31
Gas Consumption
34
Table: Gas Consumption (Egypt 2013-2018)
34
Table: Gas Consumption (Egypt 2019-2024)
34
Table: New Natural Gas Subsidies For Grid Connected Users
35
Trade - Oil
37
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Egypt 2013-2018)
37
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Egypt 2019-2024)
37
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Egypt 2013-2018)
39
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Egypt 2019-2024)
39
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Egypt 2013-2018)
41
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Egypt 2019-2024)
41
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
42
Table: Gas Net Exports (Egypt 2013-2018)
42
Table: Gas Net Exports (Egypt 2019-2024)
42
Industry Risk Reward Index
45
Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
45
Table: BMI's Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
46
Above-Ground Risks Dampen Upstream Outlook
47
Table: BMI's Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index
47
Underperformance Continues Among African Majors
48
Emergent Markets Stumble At Regulatory Hurdles
49
Established Producers On The Downturn
50
An Underwhelming Downstream
50
Table: BMI's Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index
50
Egypt - Risk/Reward Index
53
Market Overview
55
Egypt Energy Market Overview
55
Regulation
55
Political Regime
55
Fiscal Regime
57
Table: Egyptian Tax Regime
57
Licensing Rounds
57
Table: Onshore And Offshore International Bid Round 2013 Awards
57
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
59
Oil Refineries
59
Table: Refineries In Egypt
59
Service Stations
61
Oil Storage Facilities
61
Oil Terminals/Ports
61
Oil Pipelines
61
LNG Terminals
62
Table: LNG Export Terminals In Egypt
62
Table: LNG Import Terminals
63
Gas Pipelines
63
Competitive Landscape
64
Competitive Landscape Summary
64
Table: Key Players - Egyptian Energy Sector
66
Table: Key Upstream Players
66
Table: Key Downstream Players
67
Company Profile
68
Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation
68
BP Egypt
71
Eni Egypt
76
Shell Egypt
81
BG Egypt
85
Apache Energy
92
Dana Gas
97
Edison
103
L1 Energy Dea
106
Other Summaries
110
Regional Overview
120
Africa Oil & Gas Regional Overview
120
West Africa - Exploration Slowdown
120
Unconventionals: Window Of Opportunity Closing
122
East Africa: Resource Development Under Strain
124
High-Risk Continent
126
Downstream Blues
128
Global Industry Overview
130
Oil Price Outlook
130
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus Forecasts* WTI And Brent, Front Month - USD/bbl
130
Table: 2015-2016 - Fundamental Pressure On Oil Prices
131
Appendix
138
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
138
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2013-2018
138
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2019-2024 ( Global 2019-2024)
139
Africa - Regional Appendix
140
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
140
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
141
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
142
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
143
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
144
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
145
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
146
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
146
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
147
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
148
Table: LNG Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
149
Table: LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
150
Egypt - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-Year Forecasts
151
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Egypt 2013-2018)
151
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Egypt 2019-2024)
151
Egypt - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecast
152
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Egypt 2013-2018)
152
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Egypt 2019-2024)
153
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Egypt 2013-2018)
154
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Egypt 2019-2024)
155
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Egypt 2013-2018)
157
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Egypt 2019-2024)
157
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Egypt 2013-2018)
158
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Egypt 2019-2024)
159
Glossary
160
Table: Glossary Of Terms
160
Methodology
162
Industry Forecast Methodology
162
Source
164
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
164
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
166
Table: Weighting
167

The Egypt Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Egypt including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Egypt Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Egyptian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Egypt to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Egyptian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Egyptian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Egypt.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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