BMI View: Recently released data from the National Institute Of Statistics (INE) supports our view that inflation would ease in Q413 in Romania, with the consumer price index (CPI) equalling record lows and growing by just 1.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) in November, from 1.9% y-o-y the previous month (see chart below). The low reading - analysts had expected a 2.2% y-o-y CPI rise - means that inflation remains comfortably below the National Bank of Romania (NBR)'s 2.5% target, and adds weight to our long-held view that the bank will cut interest rates to 3.50% in Q114, compared to what we believe is a more hawkish outlook implied in interest rate swap markets.
|Population, mn 3||21.8||e||21.8||e||-||-||21.7||21.6|
|Nominal GDP, US$bn 4||182.6||169.4||-||-||192.7||188.1|
|Nominal GDP, RONbn 4||556.7||587.5||-||-||640.3||666.6|
|GDP per capita, US$ 4||8,549||7,968||-||-||9,102||8,926|
|Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 1,4||2.2||0.7||4.1||Q313||2.6||2.8|
|Unemployment, % of labour force, eop 5||5.1||5.6||7.3||Oct||5.3||5.0|
|Industrial production, % y-o-y, ave 5||6.0||0.5||9.9||Oct||4.5||4.7|
|Budget balance, % of GDP 6||-5.6||-2.9||-||-||-2.7||-2.5|
|Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 5||3.1||5.0||1.8||Nov||3.3||1.9|
|Central Bank policy rate, % eop 6||6.00||5.25||4.00||Nov||4.00||3.50|
|Exchange rate RON/US$, eop 2,7||3.34||3.37||3.29||18-Dec||3.27||3.64|
|Exchange rate RON/EUR, eop 2,7||4.32||4.14||4.46||18-Dec||4.48||4.55|
|Goods imports, EURbn 6||52.7||52.4||30.1||Jan-Oct||44.1||53.3|
|Goods exports, EURbn 6||45.3||45.1||28.1||Jan-Oct||41.1||49.9|
|Balance of trade in goods, EURbn 6||-7.4||-7.4||-1.8||Jan-Oct||-2.9|| |
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