Emerging Europe Monitor - South East Europe

    Part of the Emerging Europe Monitor series of newsletters, South-East Europe Monitor provides a source of prime intelligence on Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro, Romania, Serbia, Slovenia and Turkey.

    It gives you advance warning of key changes in the business environment; regular appraisals of country risk; clear insights into economic and financial trends; and competitive intelligence on company and industry-wide developments and opportunities.

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Emerging Europe Monitor - South East Europe
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BMI View: Recently released data from the National Institute Of Statistics (INE) supports our view that inflation would ease in Q413 in Romania, with the consumer price index (CPI) equalling record lows and growing by just 1.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) in November, from 1.9% y-o-y the previous month (see chart below). The low reading - analysts had expected a 2.2% y-o-y CPI rise - means that inflation remains comfortably below the National Bank of Romania (NBR)'s 2.5% target, and adds weight to our long-held view that the bank will cut interest rates to 3.50% in Q114, compared to what we believe is a more hawkish outlook implied in interest rate swap markets.

ROMANIA - MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
2011 2012 Latest Period 2013f 2014f
Population, mn 3 21.8 e 21.8 e - - 21.7 21.6
Nominal GDP, US$bn 4 182.6 169.4 - - 192.7 188.1
Nominal GDP, RONbn 4 556.7 587.5 - - 640.3 666.6
GDP per capita, US$ 4 8,549 7,968 - - 9,102 8,926
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 1,4 2.2 0.7 4.1 Q313 2.6 2.8
Unemployment, % of labour force, eop 5 5.1 5.6 7.3 Oct 5.3 5.0
Industrial production, % y-o-y, ave 5 6.0 0.5 9.9 Oct 4.5 4.7
Budget balance, % of GDP 6 -5.6 -2.9 - - -2.7 -2.5
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 5 3.1 5.0 1.8 Nov 3.3 1.9
Central Bank policy rate, % eop 6 6.00 5.25 4.00 Nov 4.00 3.50
Exchange rate RON/US$, eop 2,7 3.34 3.37 3.29 18-Dec 3.27 3.64
Exchange rate RON/EUR, eop 2,7 4.32 4.14 4.46 18-Dec 4.48 4.55
Goods imports, EURbn 6 52.7 52.4 30.1 Jan-Oct 44.1 53.3
Goods exports, EURbn 6 45.3 45.1 28.1 Jan-Oct 41.1 49.9
Balance of trade in goods, EURbn 6 -7.4 -7.4 -1.8 Jan-Oct -2.9 -3.4
Current account balance, EURbn 6 -5.9 -5.2 0.5 Jan-Oct -0.9 -1.3
Current account balance, % of GDP 6 -4.5 -3.9 - - -1.3 -0.9
Foreign reserves ex gold, US$bn 8 33.7 31.2 32.4 Nov 31.0 31.4
Total external debt stock, US$mn 6 137,062.2 125,945.9 - - 136,771.3 143,709.8
Total external debt stock, % of GDP 6 75.1 74.3 - - 71.0 76.4
Notes: e BMI estimates. f BMI forecasts. 1 Base Year = 2005; 2 Redenomination of currency at ROL10 ,000 =RON1 on July 1, 2005. Sources: 3 World Bank/UN/BMI; 4 Eurostat /BMI calculation ; 5 National Institute of Statistics/BMI calculation; 6 National Bank of Romania/BMI calculation; 7 BMI; 8 IMF IFS/BMI calculation.

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