‘The current turmoil in emerging markets (EMs) is a result of external and internal risks that we have been flagging up for some time now. These include a slowdown in China as well as the normalisation of monetary policy in the US. Moreover, many EMs have also seen a deterioration in their macroeconomic and political risk profiles, as a slowdown in growth has exacerbated social tensions. Overall, while we still believe in the emerging markets macroeconomic and consumer growth stories over the long term, there is no doubt that the major EMs are already entering a time of troubles. In this special report, we highlight the policy risks facing Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia, South Africa, and Turkey over the coming 12-18 months.’
Business Monitor International (BMI), the leading emerging markets intelligence provider, has just published a brand new special report, Emerging Threats To Emerging Markets, in which we identify the key risks facing the world’s major emerging economies in 2013 and beyond.
The 2000s were a remarkable decade for emerging markets, which almost universally enjoyed robust economic growth and rising domestic consumption and foreign investor interest. Now, however, EMs face new challenges, as the world adapts to a major deceleration of the Chinese economy, and the US prepares to end its quantitative easing policies.
In many ways, most of the 'easy' reforms have already been undertaken by EMs, and their governments will now have to work much harder to deliver the rapid improvements that their citizens have been accustomed to. Policymakers will have to make tough choices in terms of curbing inflation and budget deficits, implementing liberal economic reforms, and keeping the public happy, especially ahead of a busy election calendar in 2014. Against this backdrop, our special report answers key questions, such as:
- How will the Brazilian government manage rising social expectations following the recent protests?
- How serious is China's credit crunch, and what will its impact be on the economy?
- Can India and Indonesia reduce significant public spending, as they prepare for general elections in the first half of 2014?
- What are the prospects for major structural reform in Russia, and has the country already missed the boat?
- How will Turkey restore investor confidence following the recent public unrest and capital outflows?
- Why are liberal economic reforms so difficult to implement, and how can the obstacles be overcome?
The special report draws on BMI’s 30 years of experience to critically evaluate the main threats to emerging markets, helping you assess the role they could play in your company’s growth strategy for 2013 and beyond.