Equatorial Guinea Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Equatorial Guinea Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Equatorial Guinea's oil output will continue to see marginal gains in 2015 on the back of several smaller projects. However, maturing fields and lack of new significant discoveries will continue to push the production volumes lower after 2015. Ophir's Fortuna FLNG project will be the most important upside to the country's gas production and net exports. While the company targets FID by mid-2016, we highlight increasing downside risk to the project due to slowing global demand for LNG and the large wave of LNG projects coming online within the coming years.

Headline Forecasts (Equatorial Guinea 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 290.8 269.0 344.8 339.3 337.5 335.7 334.0
Dry natural gas production, bcm 6.7 6.5 6.3 6.2 6.4 6.5 8.5
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4
Refined products production, 000b/d 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 4.9 4.3 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.2
Brent, USD/bbl 108.70 99.50 57.00 56.00 55.00 60.00 64.00

Key Trends And Developments

  • Equatorial Guinea is forecast to see its oil and gas reserves dwindle over our forecast period to 2024 due to maturing fields and lack of new significant discoveries. There are upside risks to this rather bearish forecast coming from a string of recent exploration activities offshore, as well as the new reduced-oil price environment attracting investors to lower-risk and lower-cost ventures.

  • In mid-January 2015, the Equatoguinean government ratified the production sharing contract for Block EG-06, signed with ExxonMobil and GEPetrol.

  • Although we forecast a temporary recovery in Equatorial Guinea's oil output in 2015, led by increased production from the Aseng and Alen projects, we believe that falling volumes from mature fields will leave overall production in decline past 2015.We note upside risks to our long-term production forecast arising from active government licensing policy and new offshore exploration activities.

  • Equatorial Guinea's gas production stood at an estimated 6.5bcm in 2014 and this figure is expected to remain at similar levels until 2019, when Ophir Energy's Block R is expected to come online. This will temporarily boost the country's gas output to over 9bcm before slowly declining again to 2024.

  • In June 2015, Ophir Energy de-risked its Fortuna floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) project in Equatorial Guinea. The Fortuna FLNG project will process gas reserves from offshore block R. Front end engineering design studies are underway for both the upstream and mid-stream elements of the project, with a final investment decision expected in mid-2016 and delivery of first gas in mid-2019.

  • We however note increasing downside risk to the project due to slowing global demand for LNG and the large wave of LNG projects coming online within the coming years.

  • In early January 2015, Nigeria-based energy firm Taleveras Group entered an agreement with the Equatorial Guinea government to construct an oil storage hub at Punta Europa on the island of Bioko. The facility will have a total capacity of 1.34mn tonnes of storage for crude oil and products including gasoline, naphtha, jet fuel and fuel oil. The storage facility will be the largest crude and products storage facility in Africa.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Equatorial Guinea 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Latest Updates
11
Structural Trends
11
Upstream Projects
15
Table: Equatorial Guinea Major Upstream Projects
15
Upstream Production - Oil
17
Latest Updates
17
Structural Trends
17
Table: Oil Production (Equatorial Guinea 2013-2018)
20
Table: Oil Production (Equatorial Guinea 2019-2024)
20
Upstream Production - Gas
21
Latest Updates
21
Structural Trends
21
Table: Gas Production (Equatorial Guinea 2013-2018)
23
Table: Gas Production (Equatorial Guinea 2019-2024)
24
Refining
24
Latest Updates
24
Structural Trends
24
Refined Fuels Consumption
26
Latest Updates
26
Structural Trends
26
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Equatorial Guinea 2013-2018)
27
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Equatorial Guinea 2019-2024)
28
Gas Consumption
29
Latest Updates
29
Structural Trends
29
Table: Gas Consumption (Equatorial Guinea 2013-2018)
30
Table: Gas Consumption (Equatorial Guinea 2019-2024)
30
Trade - Oil
31
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts
31
Latest Updates
31
Structural Trends
31
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Equatorial Guinea 2013-2018)
33
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Equatorial Guinea 2019-2024)
33
Refined Products Trade Forecasts
33
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Equatorial Guinea 2013-2018)
34
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Equatorial Guinea 2019-2024)
35
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
36
Latest Updates
36
Structural Trends
36
Table: Gas Net Exports (Equatorial Guinea 2013-2018)
41
Table: Gas Net Exports (Equatorial Guinea 2019-2024)
41
Industry Risk Reward Index
42
Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
42
Table: BMI's Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
42
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential
45
Table: BMI's Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index
45
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity
48
Table: BMI's Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index
48
Equatorial Guinea Risk/Reward Index
50
Equatorial Guinea Upstream Index - Overview
50
Equatorial Guinea Downstream Index - Overview
50
Market Overview
51
Equatorial Guinea Energy Market Overview
51
Regulatory Structure
51
Fiscal Regime
52
Table: Equatorial Guinea Upstream Tax Regime
52
Licensing Regime
53
Table: Equatorial Guinea - Contracts And Licensing Regime
53
Licensing Rounds
53
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
55
Oil Refineries
55
Table: Downstream Projects
55
Oil Storage Facilities
55
Oil Terminals And Ports
56
LNG Terminals
56
Table: Equatorial Guinea LNG Infrastructure
56
Oil And Gas Pipelines
56
Competitive Landscape
57
Competitive Landscape Summary
57
Table: Key Players - Equatorial Guinea Energy Sector
58
Company Profile
59
GEPetrol
59
ExxonMobil
63
Marathon Oil
66
Other Summaries
69
Regional Overview
75
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil
75
Glossary
83
Table: Glossary Of Terms
83
Methodology
85
Industry Forecast Methodology
85
Source
87
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
87
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
89
Table: Weighting
90

The Equatorial Guinea Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Equatorial Guinea including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Equatorial Guinea Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Equatoguinean oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Equatorial Guinea to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Equatoguinean oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Equatoguinean oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Equatorial Guinea.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.