Equatorial Guinea Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Equatorial Guinea Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Equatorial Guinea's oil output will see smaller decline rates over the coming years on the back of several smaller projects. However, maturing fields and a lack of new significant discoveries will continue to push the production volumes to the downside over our entire forecast period . Ophir's Fortuna FLNG project provides the most important upside to the country's gas production and net exports. While the company targets a FID by end - 2016 , we highlight risk s to the project due to slowing global demand for LNG and the large wave of LNG projects coming online within the next few years.

Headline Forecasts (Equatorial Guinea 2014-2020)
2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 269.0 261.8 257.2 252.7 248.3 241.7 235.3
Dry natural gas production, bcm 6.5 6.3 6.2 6.0 5.9 7.4 8.6
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5
Refined products production, 000b/d 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.0
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 40.00 53.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

Latest Updates and Key Forecasts

  • Equatorial Guinea is forecast to see its oil and gas reserves stagnate or increase slightly over our forecast period to 2025 owing to maturing fields and lack of new significant discoveries. There is upside potential coming from a string of recent exploration activities offshore, as well as the new reduced-oil price environment attracting investors to lower-risk and lower-cost ventures such as Equatorial Guinea. This is reflected in our slightly improved oil reserves outlook this quarter for the coming years.

  • In mid-January 2015, the Equatoguinean government ratified the production sharing contract for Block EG-06, signed with ExxonMobil and GEPetrol.

  • We expect a smaller decline in production over 2016-2017 relative to recent years thanks to increased production from the Aseng and Alen projects and the Alba B3 Compression unit. However, the oil sector in Equatorial Guinea continues to face secular decline. In the absence of significant improvements in the fiscal terms on offer and broader regulatory stability, the country will be unable to draw investment into its prospective deepwater acreage.

  • This quarter we have pushed back first gas production from the Fortuna floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) project to 2020 from our previous estimate of 2019 based on Ophir's updated FID and first production date forecasts. The agreement with Schlumberger fell through in early 2016 and Ophir is now looking for alternative financing sources leading to delays in FID and first production at the project. The 3.4bcm project will still make the largest contribution to Equatorial Guinea's gas production over our forecast period.

  • Negotiation of the mid-stream chartering agreement with Golar is near complete: Golar LNG has already been selected as partner for the floating liquefaction concept for the Fortuna project. The Development and Production plan was submitted to MMIE on schedule and in accordance with the PSC in March 2016. The company is finalising offtake agreements for Fortuna FLNG and is in the process of signing heads of agreement (HoA) for liquefied natural gas (LNG) offtake.

  • There are still risks to the project's realisation, given the negative LNG industry environment at the moment with a large amount of LNG plants coming online within the coming years and the slowing demand for LNG in Europe and Asia, and with full sales and purchase agreements for the project yet to be signed.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Equatorial Guinea 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Latest Updates
11
Structural Trends
11
Upstream Projects
17
Table: Equatorial Guinea Major Upstream Projects
17
Upstream Production - Oil
20
Latest Updates
20
Structural Trends
20
Table: Oil Production (Equatorial Guinea 2014-2019)
25
Table: Oil Production (Equatorial Guinea 2020-2025)
25
Upstream Production - Gas
26
Latest Updates
26
Structural Trends
26
Table: Gas Production (Equatorial Guinea 2014-2019)
29
Table: Gas Production (Equatorial Guinea 2020-2025)
29
Refining
30
Latest Updates
30
Structural Trends
30
Refined Fuels Consumption
31
Latest Updates
31
Structural Trends
31
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Equatorial Guinea 2014-2019)
33
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Equatorial Guinea 2020-2025)
33
Gas Consumption
34
Latest Updates
34
Structural Trends
34
Table: Gas Consumption (Equatorial Guinea 2014-2019)
35
Table: Gas Consumption (Equatorial Guinea 2020-2025)
35
Trade - Oil
36
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts
36
Latest Updates
36
Structural Trends
36
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Equatorial Guinea 2014-2020)
38
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Equatorial Guinea 2020-2025)
38
Refined Products Trade Forecasts
38
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Equatorial Guinea 2014-2019)
39
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Equatorial Guinea 2020-2025)
40
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
41
Latest Updates
41
Structural Trends
41
Table: Gas Net Exports (Equatorial Guinea 2014-2019)
46
Table: Gas Net Exports (Equatorial Guinea 2020-2025)
46
Industry Risk Reward Index
47
Africa - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
47
Table: BMI Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
47
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential
50
Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index
50
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity
53
Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index
53
Equatorial Guinea Risk/Reward Index
55
Upstream Index - Overview
55
Downstream Index - Overview
55
Market Overview
56
Equatorial Guinea Energy Market Overview
56
Regulatory Structure
56
Fiscal Regime
57
Table: Equatorial Guinea - Upstream Tax Regime
57
Licensing Regime
58
Table: Equatorial Guinea - Contracts And Licensing Regime
58
Licensing Rounds
58
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
61
Oil Refineries
61
Table: Downstream Projects
61
Oil Storage Facilities
61
Oil Terminals And Ports
62
LNG Terminals
62
Table: Equatorial Guinea LNG Infrastructure
62
Oil And Gas Pipelines
62
Competitive Landscape
63
Table: Key Players - Equatorial Guinea Energy Sector
64
Company Profile
65
EG LNG
65
Latest Updates
65
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Equatorial Guinea
66
Regional Overview
67
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil
67
Table: Africa Oil & Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade
75
Glossary
76
Table: Glossary Of Terms
76
Methodology
78
Industry Forecast Methodology
78
Source
80
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
80
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
82
Table: Weighting
83

The Equatorial Guinea Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Equatorial Guinea including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Equatorial Guinea Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Equatoguinean oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Equatorial Guinea to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Equatoguinean oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Equatoguinean oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Equatorial Guinea.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.