BMI View: Equatorial Guinea's oil output will see smaller decline rates over the coming years on the back of several smaller projects. However, maturing fields and a lack of new significant discoveries will continue to push the production volumes to the downside over our forecast period to 2025 . Ophir's Fortuna FLNG project provides the most important upside to the country's gas production and net exports. While the company targets a FID by end - 2016 , we highlight risk s to the project due to slowing global demand for LNG and the large wave of LNG projects coming online within the next few years.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||269.0||268.0||260.7||256.0||251.4||247.0||240.3|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||3.8||3.8||3.8||3.8||3.8||3.8||3.8|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||4.1||3.9||4.0||4.0||4.1||4.2||4.2|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||6.1||5.9||5.8||5.7||5.6||7.0||8.2|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||1.5||1.6||1.6||1.6||1.6||1.6||1.7|
Latest Updates and Key Forecasts
Equatorial Guinea is forecast to see its oil and gas reserves decline significantly over our forecast period to 2025 due to maturing fields and lack of new significant discoveries. There are upside risks from a string of recent exploration activities offshore, as well as the new reduced-oil price environment attracting investors to lower-risk and lower-cost ventures such as Equatorial Guinea.
The country has officially launched a new deepwater licensing round in June 2016 for 37 remaining deep and ultra-deepwater blocks. The bidding period concludes in November 2016.
Despite benefiting from low oil prices, in the absence of significant improvements in the fiscal terms on offer and broader regulatory stability, the country will be unable to draw investment into its prospective but riskier deepwater acreage.
We expect a smaller decline in production over 2016-2017 relative to recent years thanks to increased production from the Aseng and Alen projects and the Alba B3 Compression unit. However, the oil sector in Equatorial Guinea continues to face secular decline. In the absence of significant improvements in the fiscal terms on offer and broader regulatory stability, the country will be unable to draw investment into its prospective deepwater acreage.
Marathon Oil's Alba B3 compression platform has been installed and began production in July 2016. The Alba B3 has been designed as a gas compression platform to enhance the capacity of the existing Alba gas and condensate field, extend its production life by eight years and its plateau production by two years.
Earlier in 2016 we pushed back first gas production from the Fortuna floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) project to 2020 from our previous estimate of 2019 based on Ophir's updated FID and first production date forecasts. The agreement with Schlumberger fell through in early 2016 and Ophir is now looking for alternative financing sources leading to delays in FID and first production at the project. The 3.4bcm project will still make the largest contribution to Equatorial Guinea's gas production over our forecast period.
Ophir has said that it is finalising offtake agreements for Fortuna FLNG and is in the process of signing heads of agreement (HoA) for LNG offtake from the Fortuna FLNG project in Equatorial Guinea as of end-2015. As of July 2016, Ophir is in the process of looking for an equity investor for the project after Schlumberger's exit. According to various reports, the company will either look to debt finance the project or for one of the LNG offtakers to provide buyer financing (a loan secured against the gas as part of an offtake contract).
There are still risks to the project's realisation, given the negative LNG industry environment at the moment with a large amount of LNG plants coming online within the coming years and the slowing demand for LNG in Europe and Asia, and with full sales and purchase agreements for the project yet to be signed.
The Equatorial Guinea Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Equatorial Guinea including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Equatorial Guinea Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Equatoguinean oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Equatorial Guinea to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Equatoguinean oil and gas market.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
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Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
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Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:
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- Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
- Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.
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A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.
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Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
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