BMI View: Equatorial Guinea's oil output will see smaller decline rates over the coming years on the back of several smaller projects. However, maturing fields and lack of new significant discoveries will continue to push the production volumes to the downside over our entire forecast period . Ophir's Fortuna FLNG project will be the most important upside to the country's gas production and net exports. While the company targets a FID by mid-2016, we highlight risk s to the project due to slowing global demand for LNG and the large wave of LNG projects coming online within the coming years.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||269.0||261.8||257.2||252.7||248.3||241.7||235.3|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||6.5||6.3||6.2||6.0||5.9||7.4||8.6|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||2.3||2.3||2.4||2.4||2.4||2.4||2.5|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||3.8||3.8||3.8||3.8||3.8||3.8||3.8|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||4.1||3.9||3.8||3.8||3.9||4.0||4.0|
Key Trends And Developments
Equatorial Guinea is forecast to see its oil and gas reserves stagnate or increase slightly over our forecast period to 2025 owing to maturing fields and lack of new significant discoveries. There is upside potential coming from a string of recent exploration activities offshore, as well as the new reduced-oil price environment attracting investors to lower-risk and lower-cost ventures such as Equatorial Guinea. This is reflected in our slightly improved oil reserves outlook this quarter for the coming years.
In mid-January 2015, the Equatoguinean government ratified the production sharing contract for Block EG-06, signed with ExxonMobil and GEPetrol.
We expect a smaller decline in production over 2016-2017 relative to recent years thanks to increased production from the Aseng and Alen projects and the Alba B3 Compression unit. However, falling volumes from mature fields will leave overall production in decline over the entire forecast period to 2025.
Equatorial Guinea's gas production stood at an estimated 6.28bcm in 2015 and this figure is expected to remain at similar levels until 2019, when Ophir Energy's Block R is expected to come online. This will temporarily boost the country's gas output to more than 8.6bcm before slowly declining again.
In June 2015, Ophir Energy de-risked its Fortuna floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) project in Equatorial Guinea. This project will process gas reserves from offshore block R. Front end engineering design studies are under way for both the upstream and mid-stream elements of the project, with a final investment decision expected in mid-2016 and delivery of first gas in mid-2019.
Ophir has said it is finalising offtake agreements for Fortuna FLNG and is in the process of signing heads of agreement (HoA) for liquefied natural gas (LNG) offtake as of end 2015.
Schlumberger also took a 40% stake in Ophir Energy's Fortuna FLNG development. Schlumberger's addition to the project, both as an equity stakeholder and potential subsea equipment provider, will provide cost savings on an already attractive project. With the backing of Schlumberger, which as part of the deal agreed to reimburse half of Ophir's past costs, we expect a final investment decision (FID) to be taken in mid-2016 as planned, with first gas from 2019.
There are still risks to the project's realisation, given the negative LNG industry environment at the moment with a large amount of LNG plants coming online within the coming years and the slowing demand for LNG in Europe and Asia, and with full sales and purchase agreements for the project yet to be signed.
The Equatorial Guinea Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Equatorial Guinea including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Equatorial Guinea Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Equatoguinean oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Equatorial Guinea to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Equatoguinean oil and gas market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Equatoguinean oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Equatorial Guinea.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:
- Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
- Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
- Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.
BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook
Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.
The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.