Equatorial Guinea Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Equatorial Guinea Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Equatorial Guinea's oil output will see smaller decline rates over the coming years on the back of several smaller projects. However, maturing fields and a lack of new significant discoveries will continue to push the production volumes to the downside over our entire forecast period . Ophir's Fortuna FLNG project provides the most important upside to the country's gas production and net exports. While the company targets a FID by end - 2016 , we highlight risk s to the project due to slowing global demand for LNG and the large wave of LNG projects coming online within the next few years.

Headline Forecasts (Equatorial Guinea 2014-2020)
2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 269.0 261.8 257.2 252.7 248.3 241.7 235.3
Dry natural gas production, bcm 6.5 6.3 6.2 6.0 5.9 7.4 8.6
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5
Refined products production, 000b/d 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.0
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 40.00 53.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

Latest Updates and Key Forecasts

  • Equatorial Guinea is forecast to see its oil and gas reserves stagnate or increase slightly over our forecast period to 2025 owing to maturing fields and lack of new significant discoveries. There is upside potential coming from a string of recent exploration activities offshore, as well as the new reduced-oil price environment attracting investors to lower-risk and lower-cost ventures such as Equatorial Guinea. This is reflected in our slightly improved oil reserves outlook this quarter for the coming years.

  • In mid-January 2015, the Equatoguinean government ratified the production sharing contract for Block EG-06, signed with ExxonMobil and GEPetrol.

  • We expect a smaller decline in production over 2016-2017 relative to recent years thanks to increased production from the Aseng and Alen projects and the Alba B3 Compression unit. However, the oil sector in Equatorial Guinea continues to face secular decline. In the absence of significant improvements in the fiscal terms on offer and broader regulatory stability, the country will be unable to draw investment into its prospective deepwater acreage.

  • This quarter we have pushed back first gas production from the Fortuna floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) project to 2020 from our previous estimate of 2019 based on Ophir's updated FID and first production date forecasts. The agreement with Schlumberger fell through in early 2016 and Ophir is now looking for alternative financing sources leading to delays in FID and first production at the project. The 3.4bcm project will still make the largest contribution to Equatorial Guinea's gas production over our forecast period.

  • Negotiation of the mid-stream chartering agreement with Golar is near complete: Golar LNG has already been selected as partner for the floating liquefaction concept for the Fortuna project. The Development and Production plan was submitted to MMIE on schedule and in accordance with the PSC in March 2016. The company is finalising offtake agreements for Fortuna FLNG and is in the process of signing heads of agreement (HoA) for liquefied natural gas (LNG) offtake.

  • There are still risks to the project's realisation, given the negative LNG industry environment at the moment with a large amount of LNG plants coming online within the coming years and the slowing demand for LNG in Europe and Asia, and with full sales and purchase agreements for the project yet to be signed.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Equatorial Guinea 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Latest Updates
11
Structural Trends
11
Upstream Projects
16
Table: Equatorial Guinea Major Upstream Projects
16
Upstream Production - Oil
18
Latest Updates
18
Structural Trends
18
Table: Oil Production (Equatorial Guinea 2014-2019)
21
Table: Oil Production (Equatorial Guinea 2020-2025)
21
Upstream Production - Gas
22
Latest Updates
22
Structural Trends
22
Table: Gas Production (Equatorial Guinea 2014-2019)
25
Table: Gas Production (Equatorial Guinea 2020-2025)
25
Refining
26
Latest Updates
26
Structural Trends
26
Refined Fuels Consumption
27
Latest Updates
27
Structural Trends
27
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Equatorial Guinea 2014-2019)
29
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Equatorial Guinea 2020-2025)
29
Gas Consumption
30
Latest Updates
30
Structural Trends
30
Table: Gas Consumption (Equatorial Guinea 2014-2019)
31
Table: Gas Consumption (Equatorial Guinea 2020-2025)
31
Trade - Oil
32
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts
32
Latest Updates
32
Structural Trends
32
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Equatorial Guinea 2014-2020)
34
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Equatorial Guinea 2020-2025)
34
Refined Products Trade Forecasts
34
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Equatorial Guinea 2014-2019)
35
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Equatorial Guinea 2020-2025)
36
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
37
Latest Updates
37
Structural Trends
37
Table: Gas Net Exports (Equatorial Guinea 2014-2019)
43
Table: Gas Net Exports (Equatorial Guinea 2020-2025)
43
Industry Risk Reward Index
44
Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
44
Table: BMI Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
44
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential
47
Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index
47
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity
50
Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index
50
Equatorial Guinea Risk/Reward Index
52
Equatorial Guinea Upstream Index - Overview
52
Equatorial Guinea Downstream Index - Overview
52
Market Overview
53
Equatorial Guinea Energy Market Overview
53
Regulatory Structure
53
Fiscal Regime
54
Table: Equatorial Guinea - Upstream Tax Regime
54
Licensing Regime
55
Table: Equatorial Guinea - Contracts And Licensing Regime
55
Licensing Rounds
55
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
57
Oil Refineries
57
Table: Downstream Projects
57
Oil Storage Facilities
57
Oil Terminals And Ports
58
LNG Terminals
58
Table: Equatorial Guinea LNG Infrastructure
58
Oil And Gas Pipelines
58
Competitive Landscape
59
Competitive Landscape Summary
59
Table: Key Players - Equatorial Guinea Energy Sector
60
Company Profile
61
GEPetrol
61
ExxonMobil
65
Marathon Oil
68
Other Summaries
71
Regional Overview
77
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil
77
Table: Africa Oil & Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade
85
Glossary
86
Table: Glossary Of Terms
86
Methodology
88
Industry Forecast Methodology
88
Source
90
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
90
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
92
Table: Weighting
93

The Equatorial Guinea Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Equatorial Guinea including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Equatorial Guinea Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Equatoguinean oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Equatorial Guinea to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Equatoguinean oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Equatoguinean oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Equatorial Guinea.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.