BMI View: We believe that a combination of a recovering economy and greater investment in fleet renewal from business will lead to further growth for the Estonian new vehicle sales market in 2016. We are targeting almost 10% growth for the sector as a whole, with commercial vehicles set to outperform passenger cars.
|Passenger Car And Light Commercial Vehicle Sales|
|f = BMI forecast. Source: National sources, BMI|
Commercial vehicle sales have been outperforming those of passenger cars against a recovering macroeconomic backdrop in 2015.
We expect this relative outperformance of commercial vehicles over passenger cars to continue over 2016 and 2017, as the economy strengthens and companies invest more in fleet renewal.
Used cars continue to account for the lion's share of cars purchased within Estonia, with new cars representing just 43% of the total number of cars that were registered for the first time in Estonia during the month of September 2015.
However, with Estonia's car fleet having an average age of 12.2 years (as of 2014), this underlines the potential for strong new car sales growth over the medium term as Estonia's economy regains strength and local consumers start to feel the wealth effect of this economic expansion.
Sales of electric vehicles have collapsed following the end of state subsidies, with the outlook for this sub-segment now highly uncertain as the government looks instead to prioritise biogas as its main alternative fuel.
The Estonia Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
BMI Research's Estonia Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Estonia.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Estonia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Estonian automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Estonian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Estonia.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.
BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.