Estonia Food & Drink Report

Published 17 November 2014

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Estonia Food & Drink Report

BMI Industry View

The Estonian retail sector remains positive and is planning further expansion of both ranges and premises during 2015, with mass grocery retail players being no exception. The country's economy has turned a corner and will post relatively strong real GDP growth over the next two years. Although Estonia's unemployment will fall at a slower rate, household incomes will continue to increase and this rising domestic demand will more than offset lower export growth, as relations with Russia remain strained.

Headline Industry Data

  • 2014 per capita food consumption (local currency): +2.04%; forecast compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2018: +2.06%.

  • 2014 alcoholic drinks sales (volume): -0.39%; forecast CAGR to 2018: +0.54%.

  • 2014 soft drinks sales (volume): +2.69%; forecast CAGR to 2018: +1.05%.

  • 2014 mass grocery retail sales (local currency): +4.50%; forecast CAGR to 2018: +4.55%.

Key Company Trends

HKScan Announces Major Production Investment In Rakvere: Rakvere brand owner HKScan announced on October 13 2014 that it was planning to invest EUR20mn in a new production facility in Rakvere, Estonia. The plans involve building a new 10,000 square metre production facility alongside its existing plant in Rakvere. The new plant will be equipped with advanced technology designed to deliver value-added products for growing product segments. The planned investment is geared particularly toward developing the offering of the new Group brand, Flodins.

Maxima Seeks Sector Dominance In Estonia:  Maxima Group is planning to open up to 20 new stores in Estonia over the next three years and aims to be the country's market leader by 2016, said Maxima Eesti CEO Vaidotas Pacesa in September 2014. The announcement came at the ceremonial laying of the cornerstone of its new EUR30mn logistics centre, which is expected to be completed by the end of 2015. Pacesa went on to announce that the company would be opening its first Maxima XXX store in the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Food
9
Drink
11
Mass Grocery Retail
13
Industry Forecast
15
Consumer Outlook
15
Food
16
Food Consumption
16
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Estonia 2011-2018)
17
Confectionery
17
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Estonia 2011-2018)
18
Dairy
19
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Estonia 2011-2018)
19
Pasta
20
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Estonia 2011-2018)
21
Processed Foods
21
Meat
22
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast (Estonia 2011-2018)
22
Drink
23
Alcoholic Drinks
23
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Estonia 2011-2018)
24
Soft Drinks
25
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Estonia 2011-2018)
25
Hot Drinks
26
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Estonia 2013-2018)
27
Mass Grocery Retail
28
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Estonia 2011-2018)
29
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data And Forecasts
30
Trade
30
Table: Trade Balance - Historical Data & Forecasts (Estonia 2011-2018)
31
Macroeconomic Forecasts
32
Economic Analysis
32
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Estonia 2011-2018)
38
Industry Risk Reward Index
40
Central And Eastern Europe - Risk/Reward Index
40
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Food & Drink Risk/Reward Index Q115
41
Estonia Risk/Reward Index
45
Market Overview
46
Food
46
Food Consumption
46
Food Processing
46
Leading Food Producers
47
Meat Processing
48
Confectionery
48
Agriculture
49
Drink
50
Alcoholic Drinks
50
Soft Drinks
52
Hot Drinks
54
Mass Grocery Retail
56
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number of Outlets (Estonia 2005-2010)
57
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (Estonia 2005-2012)
58
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (Estonia 2005-2012)
58
Table: Table: Average Annual Sales Per Outlet By Format, 2012
58
Industry Trends And Developments
59
Food
59
Key Industry Trends And Developments
59
Drink
61
Key Industry Trends and Developments
61
Mass Grocery Retail
63
Key Industry Trends And Developments
63
Competitive Landscape
65
Table: Table: Key Players In Estonia's Food & Drink Sector
65
Company Profile
66
Valio Eesti AS
66
Paulig Baltic AS
68
AS Kalev
70
Rakvere Lihakombinaat
72
Saku -lletehas
74
AS Liviko
76
A Le Coq
78
Rimi Baltic AB
80
Maxima Group
82
Prisma Peremarket
84
Global Industry Overview
86
Table: Dollar General And Family Dollar Historic Quarterly Same-Store Sales Growth (% Change Y-O-Y)
90
Table: Selected US And Global Spirits Companies - Historical Financial Indicators
93
Table: Select US Beverage Companies - Historic Eva Spread
95
Table: Food and Drink Team's Core Views
96
Demographic Forecast
98
Estonia
98
Table: Estonia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
99
Table: Estonia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
100
Table: Estonia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
101
Table: Estonia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
101
Glossary
102
Food & Drink
102
Mass Grocery Retail
102
Methodology
104
Industry Forecast Methodology
104
Sector-Specific Methodology
105
Sources
105
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
106
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Index Indicators
107
Table: Weighting
108

The Estonia Food & Drink Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Estonia Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Estonia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Estonia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Estonian food and drink market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Estonia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the mass grocery retail market.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Food and Drink Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Food Forecasts

BMI’s food chapter is divided into sections such as meat, fish, confectionary, dairy and canned foods, and provides insight into each market’s food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

  • Industry Forecast Scenario: Historical data series and a forecast to end-2019 for growth of key indicators within a market’s food industry. Indicators include food consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.
  • Industry Developments: A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.
  • Market Overview: An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.

Drink Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food chapter, the drink section provides insight into each market’s drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.

Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into each market’s grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown of the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the mass grocery retail and food and drink industries via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. This chapter also includes data-rich, in-depth regional analysis of the market position, business strategies and investment potential of the region’s leading mass grocery retail and food and drink operators.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Food & Drink reports draw on an extensive network primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc