BMI Industry View
BMI View : The only real growth stories of note in our outlook for the Estonian construction sector are a relatively strong residential housing subsector, driven by rising house prices and high demand, and developments at the country's ports with further trade routes and partners being targeted. While 2015 will be a return to growth after two years of contraction for the construction sector at 3. 5 %, the long-term outlook is unspectacular low single-digit growth .
Although business confidence is still relatively weak - owing to cautious recovery in the eurozone, there is significant optimism in the household sector. As mentioned, the dominant residential building sector will be the main driver of construction growth to the end of our forecast period. Building permits for dwellings, mainly block of flats, increased in Q214 by 50% y-o-y to 1,333, with the number of dwellings being completed rising by 147 on Q213 to 631. We see the residential and non-residential sector only growing in dominance of total construction value over our forecast period, rising from 65.2% in 2015 to 72.2% in 2024, at a value of EUR1.5bn (USD1.9bn).
Key developments in the sector included:
Eesti Bank, Estonia's central bank, announced that the median square metre price for housing stood 20% higher y-o-y in Q114, but still 21% lower than the 2007 peak. In a statement the bank said that a steep rise in demand has been caused by the younger generation and people restrained by the financial crisis entering the housing market, and a growth in single person households. Furthermore, due to the quantity of houses and flats built 30-40 years ago, people are now looking to upgrade to more modern homes, and not just in Tallinn, but these trends have been spreading throughout the country gaining independence from Russia and joining the EU. Although price increases and demand are set to continue, local lending banks have reportedly assured the central bank that they will not...
The Estonia Infrastructure Report features BMI Research's market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.
BMI's Estonia Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Estonian infrastructure and construction industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Estonia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Estonian infrastructure market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Estonian infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Estonia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments. These are broken down into construction (social, commercial and residential), transport (roads, railways, ports, airports, etc), and energy & utilities (powerplants, pipelines and so on).
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (up to 2012) and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key developments in the market and risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); total capital investment (USDbn); real growth (%).
Construction industry real growth forecasts (%) and industry value (USDbn) forecasts for industry sectors are split into Residential and Non-residential and Infrastructure sectors. Where the data is available for particular countries the infrastructure is further broken down into indicators for the transport subsectors of roads, railways, airports and ports and the energy and utilities sub-sectors of power plants and transmission grids, oil & gas pipelines and water infrastructure. This dataset is unique to the market.
The reports also include analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sectors (transport, utilities, commercial construction).
BMI’s Infrastructure Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
An assessment of the competitive landscape and key challenges to entering the market. Details of the largest companies active in the sector across the sub-segments of the industry, including the key financial figures from some of the largest players in the sector.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Infrastructure reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.