BMI View: Estonian pharmaceutical sales posted larger than expected growth in 2014, but we expect pharmaceutical sales growth to have decelerate d in 2015 as the impact of the Russian slowdown moderates economic activity. With Estonia seeing external tailwinds from the eurozone and Scandinavian countries, we expect pharmaceutical sales to stay largely flat in 2016 and beyond. Western-Russian relations will continue to present downside risk to our forecasts.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: Sales will rise from EUR292mn (USD391mn) in 2014 to EUR310mn (USD341mn) in 2015, up 6.1% in local currency terms and down 12.9% in US dollar terms. Forecast stayed flat from last quarter.
Healthcare: Spending will rise from EUR1.15bn (USD1.54bn) in 2014 to EUR1.22bn (USD1.34bn) in 2015, up 6.0% in local currency terms and down 13.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast stayed flat from last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||0.356||0.391||0.341||0.351||0.382||0.423||0.465|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.46||1.46||1.49||1.51||1.50||1.49||1.48|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||25.3||25.3||25.4||25.4||25.5||25.6||25.6|
|Health spending, USDbn||1.406||1.543||1.342||1.381||1.499||1.652||1.814|
Estonia scores 52.1 out of 100 in BMI's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index for Central and Eastern Europe in Q116, ranking at the sane 9 th place out of the 20 markets covered in the region. Estonia's Industry rewards score is still the weakest link in its pharmaceutical profile, at 12.8, below the regional average of 16.8.
Key Trends & Developments
Estonia is seeking DNA samples from all its citizens to overhaul the country's healthcare system with plans that these samples will be used for clinical research and also to provide more personalised care to the population.
In October, Estonia's Health Minister Jevgeni Ossinovski introduced a new bill that would set stricter regulations on alcohol advertising, limit the sale of alcohol in gas stations and ban happy hours at bars and restaurants.
In August, Grindeks, the largest Latvian pharmaceutical manufacturer, reported results for the first six months of 2015, which showed revenues of EUR3.8m, up 8% year-on-year (y-o-y), while net profit was up 14%.
BMI Economic View
Estonian economic growth will accelerate in 2016 and 2017 as external demand picks up, fostering an improvement in fixed capital formation. Private consumption will remain a large contributor to growth but will slow as inflation returns to higher levels.
BMI Political View
The largest opposition party in Estonia, the Centre Party (KE), will face significant challenges over the coming quarters. If Edgar Savisaar, the long-standing leader of Estonia's Centre Party and mayor of the capital Tallinn, is found guilty of corruption, his removal from office would be a pivotal moment in Estonian politics.
The Estonia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Estonia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Estonia pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Estonia, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Estonian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Estonian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Estonia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.