BMI View: Estonia's healthcare system is much more mature than its Central and Eastern European peers, but given the country's limited resources, the country is less appealing to pharmaceutical companies. Drugmakers can expect to see constrained revenue growth in the country as pricing pressures and restrictive drug reimbursement are employed by the Estonian health insurance fund to restrict healthcare expenditure.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: Sales will rise from EUR310mn (USD344mn) in 2015 to EUR328mn (USD350mn) in 2016, up 5.8% in local currency terms and up 2.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast has been maintained from last quarter.
Healthcare: Spending will rise from EUR1.30bn (USD1.44bn) in 2015 to EUR1.36bn (USD1.46bn) in 2016, up 4.9% in local currency terms and up 1.46% in US dollar terms. Forecast has been increased from last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||0.390||0.340||0.350||0.380||0.420||0.460||0.490|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.46||1.50||1.54||1.54||1.53||1.52||1.51|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||23.6||23.9||24.1||24.2||24.4||24.6||24.7|
|Health spending, USDbn||1.640||1.440||1.460||1.570||1.720||1.880||1.970|
Estonia scores 55.7 out of 100 in BMI's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index for Central and Eastern Europe in Q316, ranking at 8th place, same as in the previous quarter. Estonia's Industry rewards score is still the weakest link in its pharmaceutical profile, at 16.4, below the regional average of 19.7.
According to World Health Organization standards, the rate of HIV infections in Estonia has reached levels qualifying as epidemic. Data from the Estonian Health Board show that 59 new cases of HIV and 11 new cases of AIDS were diagnosed during the first three months of 2016, while in 2015, a total of 270 new cases of HIV and 19 new cases of AIDS were diagnosed in Estonia.
In march 2016, the Ministry of Social affairs submitted a memorandum to the government calling for a reduction or ban of alcohol advertising on the internet. Three possible solutions were proposed: full ban of online ads, ban with the exception of alcohol producers' websites, and only allowing the advertising on websites, which require the user to confirm their age. (Estonian Public Broadcasting)
E-consultations proved the be efficient in Estonia in order to decrease waiting times to see a general practitioner. This was now extended to medical specialists as well with the East Tallinn Central Hospital among the first now offering e-consultations with endocrinologists, urologists, immunologists and ear, nose, and throat (ENT) specialists.
BMI Economic View
Estonia's successful rebalancing of its economy in the wake of 2008/2009 financial crash will see the economy record steady real GDP growth over our long-term outlook to 2025. Although years of current account surpluses will see net foreign claims against the economy gradually fall, the small and open nature of the economy leaves it vulnerable to fluctuations in global conditions.
BMI Political View
Relations with Russia will remain tense and a key feature of Estonian politics over the next two years, despite a possible scaling back of sanctions from the EU. The ruling Reform Party will maintain a tough stance towards aggressive Russian foreign policy in both Europe and the Middle East, so as to accentuate the potential dangers of the relatively pro-Russian Centre Party in opposition.
The Estonia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Estonia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Estonia pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Estonia, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Estonian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Estonian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Estonia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.