Port Of Tallinn To See Moderate Growth In 2015
Estonia's Port of Tallinn will see slightly faster growth in tonnage and box throughput in 2015 compared to 2014. Tonnage in 2014 grew by only 0.3%, but this was the first expansion after three consecutive years of falling volumes, reflecting the diversion of Russian transit traffic to the rival port of Ust-Luga. Despite continuing concerns over trade with Russia, we believe both bulk tonnage and box traffic is now back on a sustainable growth path, reflecting a moderate but continuing domestic economic recovery and diversification of trade.
Our overall view of the Estonian economy this year is upbeat, based on the hypothesis that strong real incomes, low inflation, and low unemployment will continue to support a revival in domestic consumption that will drive the economy forward. The foreign trade picture is mixed with difficulties experienced by two important trade partners - Russia and Finland - having a negative effect. This is being offset however by resilient demand for Estonian exports (particularly electronic good production and wooden products) from Scandinavian countries - Sweden, Norway and Denmark. This has been a factor in lifting first-quarter Estonian industrial production. Still, bearing in mind the external headwinds, we are now predicting 2015 GDP growth of 2.2% (down on our previous estimate of 2.8% but still higher than the 2.1% recorded in 2014).
Headline Industry Data
The Port of Tallinn's gross tonnage is set to grow by 1.2%, to 28.7mn tonnes in 2015, following estimated growth of 0.3% in 2014.
Box traffic at Tallinn to grow by 3.0% in 2015, to 268,102 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in 2015 - slightly up on the 2.6% growth estimated for 2014.
Estonian foreign trade to gain 2.6% in real terms in 2015, after 2.4% growth estimated in 2014.
Import growth will lead with 3.2% expansion, ahead of exports, which will be up by 2.0%.
Key Industry Trends
Domestic Maritime Tonnage Falls: ...
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