Estonia Telecommunications Report

Published 20 November 2014

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Estonia Telecommunications Report

BMI View:   Estonia's telecoms sector is one of the most developed in the region, particularly with regards to the deployment of advanced next-generation wireline and mobile broadband technologies and services. However, its small geographical size and relatively closed nature means that new entrants have very few opportunities to develop their businesses and this has the potential to hamper innovation in the field of new solutions and services. Eesti Telekom continues to dominate virtually all aspects of the electronic communications services market and the regulator's reluctance to open up the broadband infrastructure access market still further means that the situation is unlikely to change in the medium term. That said, we believe pressures are mounting on the fragmented cable TV sector to consolidate and we expect positive developments in the medium to long term .

Key Data

  • The mobile market is recording volatile subscription and revenue growth, due to market saturation and intense price competition. We forecast mobile subscriptions to reach 1.966mn by the end of 2014, rising to 2.013mn by the end of 2018.

  • The real growth opportunity in the mobile arena is in upgrading customers to higher-value postpaid plans and greater take-up of 3G/4G will result from this. There will be 1.462mn 3G/4G subscribers by the end of 2014, rising to 1.665mn by 2018.

  • Mobile broadband will undermine demand for wireline broadband services, but demand for 'TV everywhere' services will ensure that xDSL, cable and fibre usage remains strong. We forecast the number of broadband subscriptions to rise from 623,000 in 2014 to 691,000 by 2018 as dedicated data connections become less relevant.

Recent Developments

Estonia's smallest mobile operator, Tele2, has invested heavily in future-proofing its business. The company finally acquired 800MHz spectrum in January 2014 and purchased additional 2.1GHz spectrum in March. It now has the broadest spectrum portfolio in the...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Mobile
8
Wireline
9
Industry Forecast
11
Mobile
11
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts (Estonia 2011-2018)
11
Fixed-Line
14
Table: Telecoms Sector - Wireline - Historical Data & Forecasts (Estonia 2011-2018)
14
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
16
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Telecoms Risk/Reward Index, Q115
20
Market Overview
22
Mobile
22
Regional Perspective
22
Table: Estonia Mobile Market Regional Comparisons, 2013
23
Key Developments
23
Mobile Growth
24
Market Shares And Net Additions
25
Table: Subscriber Net Additions, Q2 2013-Q2 2014 ('000)
26
Table: Estonia's Mobile Subscribers Q2 2013-Q2 2014 ('000)
28
Subscription Mix
28
Usage (MoU/ARPU)
29
Networks
31
Mobile Content/Value-Added Services
34
Mobile Operator Data
37
Table: Estonian Mobile Market, 2012-2014
37
Table: EMT
37
Table: Elisa Eesti
38
Table: Tele2 Estonia
39
Central And Eastern Europe Mobile Content
39
Fixed-Line
44
Wireline Voice
44
Broadband
48
Industry Trends And Developments
55
Regulatory Development
57
Table: Estonia: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
58
Regulatory Developments
58
Competitive Landscape
60
Table: Estonia Telecoms Sector - Key Players
60
Company Profile
61
Elion Enterprises/EMT
61
Tele2 Estonia
65
Elisa Eesti
69
Starman
72
Regional Overview
75
Demographic Forecast
81
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Estonia 1990-2025)
82
Table: Key Population Ratios (Estonia 1990-2025)
82
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Estonia 1990-2025)
84
Table: Population By Age Group (Estonia 1990-2025)
84
Table: Population By Age Group % (Estonia 1990-2025)
85
Glossary
86
Table: Glossary Of Terms
86
Methodology
88
Industry Forecast Methodology
88
Sources
90
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
90
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators
91
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
92

The Estonia Telecommunications Report features BMI Research's independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Estonia's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's Estonia Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Estonia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Estonia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Estonian telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Estonia's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Estonia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
  • Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
    Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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