Ethiopia Country Risk Report

Published 25 March 2015 | Annually

  • 38 pages
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$1,195.00
Ethiopia Country Risk Report
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks To Outlook
5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Political Risk Index
7
Domestic Politics
8
Governance To Become Harder Post-Election
8
Table : Politic al Over vie w
8
Long-Term Political Outlook
10
More Armed Conflict Likely This Decade
10
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
13
SWOT Analysis
13
BMI Economic Risk Index
13
Economic Activity
14
More Liberalisation Needed To Sustain Growth
14
TABLE: Economic Acti vit y
14
Balance Of Payments
16
Remaining Heavily Dependent On External Financing
16
TABLE: Curre nt Account
16
Fiscal Policy
18
Sovereign Profile To Weaken
18
TABLE: Fisc al Polic y
18
Monetary Policy
19
Subdued Food And Oil Prices To Temper Inflation
19
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
21
The Ethiopian Economy To 2024
21
Strong Growth Ahead, But Limits To State Model
21
TABLE: Long-Term Macr oec onomic Forec asts
21
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
25
SWOT Analysis
25
Operational Risk Index
25
Operational Risk
26
Table : East Africa - Oper ati onal Ris k
26
Table : East Africa - Labour Market Ris k
27
Table : East Africa - Logistics Ris k
28
Table : East Africa - Trade And Investment Risk
29
Table : East Africa - Crime And Security Risk
30
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
33
Global Outlook
33
Deflationary Pressure
33
Table : Global Assumptions
33
Table : Developed States , Real GDP GrowtH, %
34
Table : BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROW TH FORECASTS, %
34
Table : Emerging Markets , Real GDP Growth , %
35

The Ethiopia Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Ethiopia. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Ethiopia's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, BMI Research.

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Ethiopia's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • Contextualise Ethiopia's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Ethiopia, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Ethiopia Country Risk Report by BMI Research includes three major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook and Operational Risk.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Ethiopia' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Ethiopia through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Ethiopia Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector obligations).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2019 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Ethiopia and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Ethiopia, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Ethiopia over the next 5-years?

BMI's Ethiopia country Risk Index evaluates the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Ethiopia Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Ethiopia.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Index assesses explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest positioning and trends for Ethiopia's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.
  • Long-Term Political Outlook BMI examines the structural risks to the stability of Ethiopia’s political system and the dominant public policy issues likely to affect decision-makers, and outlines scenarios for how the state could evolve in the medium to long term.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark Ethiopia's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

Operational Risk

What are the current operational risks and difficulties associated with doing business in Ethiopia?

The Operational Risk section gives an evaluation of current risks and difficulties associated with operating in the market. It also provides a brief overview of the regional Operational Risk Index which benchmarks Ethiopia against its neighbours.

Operational Risk Contents

The chapter provides a summary of the main threats in the country, within:

  • Labour Market Risk (Education; Availability of Labour; and Labour Costs)
  • Logistics Risk (Market Size and Utilities; Quality and Extent of the Transport Governance)
  • Trade and Investment Risk (Economic Openness; Government Intervention; and Legal Risks)
  • Crime and Security Risk (Crime; Terrorism; and Interstate Conflict risks).

The report also drills down in greater depth to address key issues in one of the following segments most critical to the market:

  • Transport network, economic openness, cost and availability of labour, crime risks, bureaucratic environment, market size and utilities, and interstate conflict.
  • Assess your company’s exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using BMI’s insight on the current dangers of operating in the market.
  • Evaluate Ethiopia’s risk profile against its regional peers, helping you understand the market’s strengths and weaknesses in relation to other countries.

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