BMI View: Finland will remain amongst the wealthiest countries in the world in real GDP per capita terms, which together with an aging population and a preference for patented medicines, will keep pharmaceutical spending high. However, long-term economic stagnation lies ahead which may push the government to continue to implement additional cost containment measures, therefore creating further revenue earning challenges for drugmakers.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: EUR2.98bn (USD3.30bn) in 2015 to EUR3.09bn (USD3.31bn) in 2016;+3.8% in local currency terms and +0.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from last quarter .
Healthcare: EUR19.50bn (USD21.63bn) in 2015 to EUR20.12bn (USD21.53bn) in 2016; +3.2% in local currency terms and -0.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards slightly from last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||3.780||3.300||3.310||3.520||3.810||4.110||4.240|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.39||1.44||1.47||1.49||1.51||1.52||1.53|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||15.0||15.3||15.4||15.4||15.4||15.3||15.2|
|Health spending, USDbn||25.140||21.630||21.530||22.880||24.790||26.880||28.010|
Finland's Risk/Reward Index score for Q416 remains unchanged from last quarter, at 72.2 out of 100. However, the country has fallen from seventh to ninth position in our Western European matrix, just below Norway (72.5) and above Sweden (71.7). Finland's strong emphasis on the regulatory environment is an appealing feature of the market, although a major factor affecting the business environment for drugmakers is its small overall market size. Increasing cost-containment measures also negatively affect the Industry Rewards score. Nevertheless, high per capita drug expenditure means that companies operating in the country can see substantial income.
In July 2016, Finland's Faron Pharmaceuticals entered into an agreement with Abzena whereby Abzena will manufacture Clevegen, a novel therapeutic antibody being developed by Faron to reduce immune suppression in cancer.
In July 2016, the National Coalition Party received criticism for its apparent reluctance to de-regulate and increase competition in the pharmacy industry.
Also in July 2016, Finnish pharmaceutical manufacturers began testing new medicine packaging in preparation for new EU-wide measures targeting counterfeit medicines.
In June 2016, Weifa signed a five-year distribution agreement with the Finland-based Fysioline Group covering several of Weifa's most recently launched products within the pain category, and can be extended to include additional products.
BMI Economic View
Finland is set for years of economic stagnation, and will be one of the worst performing eurozone economies in growth terms. Structural reforms being implemented by the government will be insufficient to offset the decline of key industries, an uncompetitive export base and labour market rigidities.
BMI Political View
The Finnish government will struggle to retain popular support in 2016 and 2017, as the country's economic malaise continues. Any potential benefits of structural reforms aimed at tackling its uncompetitive labour force and large budget deficit are unlikely to materialise early enough to improve this outlook.
The Finland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Finland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Finland pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Finland, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Finnish pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Finnish pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Finland.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.