BMI View: We hold a relatively optimistic view for Finland ' s pharmaceutical market, with medicine sales being driven by an aging population. However, the country will remain a challenging market for innovative drugmakers over our forecast. We believe rising reimbursement costs and sluggish economic growth will see the government continue cost containment measures focused on healthcare and , despite company concerns regarding falling drug prices, the success of the annual decline in reimbursed medicine prices will likely result in the government maintaining the generic reference pricing system.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: EUR2.98bn (USD3.30bn) in 2015 to EUR3.09bn (USD3.31bn) in 2016;+3.8% in local currency terms and +0.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from last quarter .
Healthcare: EUR19.50bn (USD21.63bn) in 2015 to EUR20.12bn (USD21.53bn) in 2016; +3.2% in local currency terms and -0.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||3.779||3.303||3.308||3.365||3.381||3.425||3.536|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.39||1.42||1.46||1.48||1.50||1.51||1.52|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||15.0||15.3||15.4||15.4||15.4||15.3||15.2|
|Health spending, USDbn||25.142||21.630||21.530||21.842||21.988||22.403||23.338|
Finland's Risk/Reward Index score for Q117 remains unchanged from last quarter, at 72.2 out of 100. However, the country has increased from ninth to sixth position in our Western European matrix, just below Denmark (72.8) and above France (69.5). Finland's strong emphasis on the regulatory environment is an appealing feature of the market, although a major factor affecting the business environment for drugmakers is its small overall market size (Market Expenditure score of 12.0 out of 20). Increasing cost-containment measures also negatively affect the Industry Rewards score. Nevertheless, high per capita drug expenditure means that companies operating in the country can see substantial income.
In October 2016, the Social Affairs and Health Committee of the Finnish Parliament announced that it had reached a consensus on the taxation of sugary foods and beverages, intended to address a surge in type II diabetes.
In September 2016, the Aslak medical centre announced plans to introduce an experimental self-service healthcare kiosk for isolated residents in the northern municipality, Sodankyla, which will be equipped with a video link to Aslak nurses and physicians as well as provide services such as laboratory tests, blood pressure monitoring, electrocardiograms and lung checks.
In September 2016, the leader of the Green League party, Ville Niinisto criticised the Finnish government for its plans to reduce support for medicine costs by EUR150mn, stating that such measures would hit pensioners with health problems the hardest.
In August 2016, a study published in Neurology revealed that there was a rapid decline in the number of people who suffered subarachnoid haemorrhage in Finland from 1998 to 2012, linking the government's national tobacco policies as a highly likely reason for the decline in the most fatal type of stroke.
In August 2016, the government announced its plans to reduce the reimbursement of diabetes medicines (excluding insulin) from the current 100% down to 65% of the value as part of its 2017 budget changes.
BMI Economic View
Finland's growth outlook over the next two years will remain challenging. While weakening private consumption and subdued foreign demand will take a toll on the country's export performance, a strong growth trend in the construction sector will enable the economy to grow at an improved, albeit modest, pace. We forecast the economy to grow by 0.8% in 2016 and 1.0% in 2017, compared to our previous forecasts of 0.3% and 0.7% respectively.
BMI Political View
While Finland's government and public opinion still oppose NATO membership, we believe that a deterioration of regional security or Swedish membership could entice Finland to eventually join the alliance. However, our core view is that instead of joining NATO, Finland and Sweden will seek to bolster its bilateral security ties with the alliance.
The Finland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Finland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Finland pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Finland, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Finnish pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Finnish pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Finland.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.