BMI View: In light of Finland ' s bleak economic outlook, we expect the government to remain focused on austerity measures that target the healthcare sector. Finland ' s ageing population will drive demand for expensive innovative medicines, which will add additional pressure on the government to implement further price cuts on drugs. As a result, the market will become increasingly challenging for innovative drugmakers, impacting company revenues over the long term.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: EUR2.85bn (USD3.82bn) in 2014 to EUR2.93bn (USD3.23bn) in 2015;+3.0% in local currency terms and -15.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from last quarter .
Healthcare: EUR18.88bn (USD25.30bn) in 2014 to EUR19.63bn (USD21.59bn) in 2015; +4.0% in local currency terms and -14.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from last quarter.
Finland's Risk/Reward Index score is unchanged from last quarter at 68.8 out of 100. This places the country fifth in our rankings in terms of attractiveness to investors, just above Belgium (68.5). Finland's strong emphasis on the regulatory environment is an appealing feature of the market, although a major factor affecting the business environment for drugmakers is its small overall market size. Combined with increasing cost-containment measures, this negatively affects the industry rewards score in particular. Nevertheless, high per capita drug expenditure means that companies operating in the country can see substantial incomes.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||3.634||3.817||3.228||3.236||3.430||3.698||3.981|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.36||1.40||1.43||1.45||1.46||1.47||1.48|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||15.1||15.1||15.0||14.8||14.7||14.5||14.4|
|Health spending, USDbn||24.000||25.302||21.593||21.850||23.386||25.477||27.717|
In November 2015, the National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL) School Health Survey 2015 showed that the number of overweight teenagers in Finland had increased compared with the start of 2000s, with 15% of eighth and ninth graders in secondary school being officially obese.
In October 2015, Pharma Industry Finland (PIF) announced that it is in favour of business and innovation policy actions envisaged by the government, which include increased growth through pharmaceutical research to improve competitiveness and economic growth.
Also in October 2015, PIF backed the payback mechanism suggested by the Ministry of Social Affairs and Health as a temporary measure to implement medicine savings envisaged in the 2016 state budget. The savings imposed on the drug repayment expenditure payable by the National Insurance Institution (Kela) are estimated to be worth EUR50mn (USD57mn) in 2016.
BMI Economic View
The Finnish economy will remain stuck in a no-to-low growth environment in 2016. While external demand will improve slightly, domestic demand will continue to struggle with the decline of key industries. We have made no changes to our forecast for 2016 growth to expand by just 0.4%.
BMI Political View
The ongoing migrant crisis will continue to place severe strains on the functioning of EU institutions, domestic political relations and social cohesion across the continent. With no united policy at a regional level, or agreement among parties domestically on how to tackle the crisis, social tensions are bound to increase, raising political risk across the European Union.
The Finland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Finland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Finland pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Finland, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Finnish pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Finnish pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Finland.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.