BMI View: Finland's economy is set to expand at the slowest rate in the eurozone in 2017. Reforms aimed at tackling its uncompetitive labour market will be insufficient to solve its bleak economic situation. This will force the government to make cost savings, with the pharmaceutical and healthcare sectors primary targets for this, as both are large beneficiaries of public funds. However, Finland will still continue to be one the wealthiest countries in the world in terms of real GDP per capita, and this will - along with an aging population - maintain sales of high- value pharmaceuticals over the longer term.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: EUR2.98bn (USD3.30bn) in 2015 to EUR3.09bn (USD3.31bn) in 2016;+3.8% in local currency terms and +0.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards slightly from last quarter .
Healthcare: EUR19.50bn (USD21.63bn) in 2015 to EUR20.10bn (USD21.51bn) in 2016; +3.1% in local currency terms and -0.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards from last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||3.780||3.300||3.310||3.530||3.820||4.120||4.270|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.39||1.44||1.46||1.48||1.49||1.51||1.53|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||15.0||15.3||15.4||15.4||15.4||15.3||15.3|
|Health spending, USDbn||25.140||21.630||21.510||22.870||24.790||26.870||27.980|
Finland's Risk/Reward Index score for Q316 remains unchanged from last quarter, at 72.2 out of 100. The country is ranked seventh in our Western European matrix, just below France (73.1) and above Sweden (71.7). Finland's strong emphasis on the regulatory environment is an appealing feature of the market, although a major factor affecting the business environment for drugmakers is its small overall market size. Increasing cost-containment measures also negatively affects the Industry Rewards score. Nevertheless, high per capita drug expenditure means that companies operating in the country can see substantial income.
In April 2016, the head of clinical haematology at the Helsinki University Central Hospital expressed his concern that the rising cost of specialized cancer treatments will eventually lead public health services to rank cancer patients in need of treatment.
In April 2016, Pharma Industry Finland (PIF) reported that the pharmaceutical industry had invested more than EUR220mn (USD250mn) in Finland in 2015 and that the majority was in research and development as well as investments in production.
In March 2016, Fermion, a subsidiary company of the Finnish pharmaceutical company Orion, announced the building of a new production plant to the Hanko manufacturing site in an investment worth more than EUR30mn (USD34mn).
In January 2016, it was announced that Acorda Therapeutics had acquired Finland-based Biotie in a USD363mn deal, giving Acorda two Parkinson's disease drugs which are currently in clinical trials.
BMI Economic View
Finland's economic malaise has much further to run, with the economy set to expand at the slowest rate in the eurozone in 2017. Reforms aimed at tackling its uncompetitive labour market will be insufficient to solve severe structural inefficiencies in the economy.
BMI Political View
Finland's coalition government will struggle to retain popular support in 2016 and 2017, due to the likely implementation of controversial labour market reforms. While support for exiting the euro will grow, we remain sceptical that momentum behind a so-called 'Fixit' will be strong enough to force a vote on the issue.
The Finland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Finland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Finland pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Finland, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Finnish pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Finnish pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Finland.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.