BMI View: French agriculture is set to be an EU outperformer over the coming years , as the country is the bloc ' s leading producer of grains and sugar and has dairy and livestock with strong reputations. France will however face some short-term hurdles as the EU is reforming its agricultural sector , which will consolidate output in various sectors and particularly sugar and dairy. French meat production wil l suffer from continued weak demand from other EU countries, the traditional importers of French meat.
Wheat production growth 2014/15 to 2019/20: -8.6% to 35.6mn tonnes. Grains production will see limited growth over the next five years due to a high base from 2014/15 and a decline in yields to levels more in line with their long-term trend. The likelihood that genetically modified crops will not be adopted in France and in Europe generally will limit yield growth in corn.
2017 real GDP growth: 1.1% (down from 1.3% in 2015).
2017 consumer price inflation: 1.1% (up from 0.3% in 2015).
BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD70.9in 2016/17, a 5.0% y-o-y increase.
|Agribusiness Market Value|
|BMI Market Value By Commodity (2012-2020)|
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: Eurostat, FAO, BMI|
Latest Updates & Structural Trends
Despite having the strongest long-term opportunities in the EU, French agriculture is requiring increased support from the government and higher prices from food companies in order to cope with current poor market conditions. The sector is facing multiple structural challenges including an aging labour force and elevated reliance on subsidies which have the potential to significantly impede the rise of France as an efficient agricultural powerhouse in a consolidated EU market over the coming decade.
In October 2016, the French government announced the gradual creation of a new state fund aiming to guarantee part or all of a farmer's new or refinanced loans. This financing aid fund follows a set of sector-specific emergency measures put in place since the end of 2015. These include the European Commission's EUR500mn funding packages announced in September 2015 and July 2016, including matching aid from the French government (July 2016 package) and targeted aid to dairy farmers, as well as emergency measures for the grains sector at the start of Q316.
Wheat production will suffer from above-average rainfall pre-harvest and decline substantially in 2016/17, albeit from a high base after a bumper crop in 2015/16. France will face continued competition from Eastern European producers on the wheat export market, while it will continue to find steady demand from China for its barley production.
France will see strong growth in milk production out to 2020 due to export-driven increases in cheese production. This strong export demand will enable French dairy farmers to be among the EU's outperformers after the consolidation wave.
We maintain our forecasts for subdued growth in French meat production over the next five years due to continued weak demand from other EU countries, the traditional importers of French meat. Our view for poultry meat to remain the strongest in terms of consumption growth underpins our view for poultry production to outperform the livestock complex.France will emerge a stronger leader after the EU removes its sugar production quotas in September 2017, as the country is the largest sugar beet producer and refiner globally. France will also be the largest EU sugar exporter once the bloc turns into a net sugar exporter after the post-2017 consolidation wave. This is due to its large exportable supplies relative to other EU member states as well as its trade relationships with MENA importers.
The France Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.
BMI's France Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.
BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts
Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.
- Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
- Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
- Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
- BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.
BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis
Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.
Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.
Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.
The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.
Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market
Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean
Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.
The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.