BMI View: In line with the previous quarter, we continue to forecast a decline in grains growth in 2015/16 in France, as yields will return to trend after extremely favourable weather in the 2014/15 season. In the dairy sector, we believe that milk production in the short term will not be fundamentally affected by the removal of the EU's production quota in April 2015, owing to low farmgate prices, but production will expand strongly out to the end of our forecast period in 2019.
Key BMI Forecasts
Wheat production growth 2013/14 to 2018/19: 2.7% to 40.0mn tonnes. We expect wheat to remain one of the most profitable crops in the country and the most in demand crop for domestic use and exports.
201 5 real GDP growth: 1.3 % (up from 0.4% in 2014).
20 15 consumer price inflation: 0.4 % (level from 2014).
BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD69 . 8 bn in 2015/16, a 1.8% y-o-y increase.
|Agribusiness Market Value|
|BMI Market Value By Commodity (2011-2019)|
|e/f= BMI estimate/forecast. Sources: FAO, BMI|
Latest Updates & Structural Trends
Milk production will grow by just 0.5% y-o-y in 2014/15, to 25.5mn tonnes. We expect sluggish growth, despite the removal of the EU's dairy production quota from April 2015, as a result of low farmgate milk prices. Low farmgate prices will limit the incentive for production, though we expect higher average milk prices over the coming years and therefore a considerable acceleration in milk and dairy products production out to the end of our forecast period. In this vein our view is that cheese production will grow strongly as international exports will be in high demand.
Grains production was strong in France during 2014/15 owing to good growing conditions and a high area planted due to strong prices across the grains complex. Wheat production increased by 0.8% y-o-y to reach 39.3mn tonnes in the most recent season, while corn output rose by 3.2% y-o-y to 16.0mn tonnes. Despite quality concerns regarding the French...
The France Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.
BMI's France Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.
BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts
Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.
- Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
- Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
- Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
- BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.
BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis
Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.
Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.
Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.
The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.
Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market
Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean
Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.
The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.