France Agribusiness Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the agribusiness industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, Supply & Demand Forecasts, Commodity Price Analysis and Company Profiles.

Why you should buy this report

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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France Agribusiness Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Grains production will see limited growth over the next five years due to a high base from 2014/15 and only moderate increases in prices, while Fr ench wheat also faces competition from EU and Black Sea producers on the export market. French dairy farmers will be among the EU's outperformers due to steady import demand for their cheese production. French meat production wil l suffer from continued weak demand from other EU countries, the traditional importers of French meat.

Key Forecasts

  • Wheat production growth 2014/15 to 2019/20: 0.3 % to 39.1 mn tonnes. Grains production will see limited growth over the next five years due to a high base from 2014/15 and an only moderate increase in prices. The likelihood that genetically modified crops will not be adopted in France and in Europe generally will limit yield growth in corn.

  • 2016 real GDP growth: 1. 3 % (up from 1.2% in 2015).

  • 2016 consumer price inflation: 0. 3 % (up from 0.0% in 2015).

  • BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD66 . 6bn in 2015/16, a 0.5% y-o-y decrease.

Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (2012-2020)
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: Eurostat, FAO, BMI

Latest Updates & Structural Trends

Wheat production will suffer from above-average rainfall pre-harvest and decline substantially in 2016/17, albeit from a high base after a bumper crop in 2015/16. In contrast, the corn crop will recover from the impact of a hot and dry summer on last year's yields. France will face continued competition from Eastern European producers on the wheat export market, while it will continue to find steady demand from China for its barley production.

France will see strong growth in milk production out to 2020 due to export-driven increases in cheese production. This strong export demand will enable French dairy farmers to be among the EU's outperformers after the consolidation wave.

We maintain our forecasts for subdued growth in French meat production over the next five years due to continued weak demand from other EU countries, the traditional importers of French meat. Our view for poultry meat to remain the strongest in terms of consumption growth underpins our view for poultry production to outperform the livestock complex.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Agribusiness
9
Industry Forecast
11
Dairy Outlook
11
Latest Updates
11
Table: France - Dairy Production & Consumption Outlook
11
Table: Risks To Outlook
11
Structural Trends
12
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (2012-2020)
14
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (France, 2012-2020)
14
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (France 2012-2020)
14
Grains Outlook
15
Latest Updates
15
Table: France - Grains Production & Consumption Outlook
15
Table: Risks To Outlook
15
Structural Trends
16
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (France 2012-2020)
18
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (France 2012-2020)
18
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (France 2012-2020)
18
Livestock Outlook
19
Latest Updates
19
Table: France - Livestock Production & Consumption Outlook
19
Table: Risks To Outlook
19
Structural Trends
20
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (France 2012-2020)
22
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (France 2012-2020)
22
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (France 2012-2020)
22
Commodities Price Analysis
23
Global - Global Commodities Strategy
23
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And Bmi Forecasts
23
Featured Analysis
25
European Agriculture: The Future Of The CAP
25
Table: EU - Agricultural Self-Sufficiency Ratios
33
Table: Select Commodities - European Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes)
37
Upstream Analysis
38
Europe GM Outlook
38
Europe Machinery Outlook
44
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (company-based estimates)
48
Europe Fertiliser Outlook
50
Downstream Analysis
57
Food
57
Latest Updates
57
Structural Trends
58
Table: Food Sales (France 2013-2020)
59
Regional Overview
61
Europe Regional Overview
61
Competitive Landscape
66
Table: Main Agribusiness Players
66
Demographic Forecast
67
Table: Population Headline Indicators (France 1990-2025)
68
Table: Key Population Ratios (France 1990-2025)
68
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (France 1990-2025)
69
Table: Population By Age Group (France 1990-2025)
69
Table: Population By Age Group % (France 1990-2025)
70
Methodology
72
Industry Forecast Methodology
72
Sector-Specific Methodology
73

The France Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's France Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.