BMI View: Grains production will see limited growth over the next five years due to a high base from 2014/15 and only moderate increases in prices, while France also faces competition from other European producers on the export market. French dairy farmers will be among the EU's outperformers due to steady import demand for their cheese production. French meat production wil l suffer from continued weak demand from other EU countries, the traditional importers of French meat.
Wheat production growth 2014/15 to 2019/20: 3.9% to 40.5mn tonnes. Our forecasts indicate only moderate growth due to a high base from a bumper crop in 2014/15. We believe other grains-producing countries will compete with France to supply increasing import demand from the Middle East and North Africa.
2016 real GDP growth: 1.4% (up from 1.2% in 2015).
2016 consumer price inflation: 0.6% (up from 0.0% in 2015).
BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD67.5bn in 2015/16, a 0.9% y-o-y increase.
|Agribusiness Market Value|
|BMI Market Value By Commodity (2012-2020)|
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: Eurostat, FAO, BMI|
Latest Updates & Structural Trends
Wheat production will remain elevated in 2016/17 but decline year-on-year after a bumper crop in 2015/16, while the corn crop will recover from the poor yields of last year's hot and dry summer. France will face continued competition from Eastern European producers on the wheat export market, while it will continue to find steady demand from China for its barley production.
France will see strong growth in milk production out to 2020 due to export-driven increases in cheese production. This strong export demand will enable French dairy farmers to be among the EU's outperformers after the consolidation wave.
We maintain our forecasts for subdued growth in French meat production over the next five years due to continued weak demand from other EU countries, the traditional importers of French meat. Our view for poultry meat to remain the strongest in terms of consumption growth underpins our view for poultry production to outperform the livestock complex.
The France Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.
BMI's France Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.
BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts
Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.
- Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
- Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
- Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
- BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.
BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis
Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.
Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.
Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.
The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.
Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market
Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean
Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.
The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.