France Agribusiness Report

Published 14 April 2015

  • 118 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
France Agribusiness Report

BMI View: We forecast a decline in grains growth in 2015/16 in France, as yields will return to trend after extremely favourable weather in the 2014/15 season . We forecast wheat production to grow over our forecast period and expect production to reach 40.0mn tonnes by 2018/19. Milk production in the short term will not be fundamentally affected by the removal of the EU's production quota in April 2015 owing to low farmgate prices , but production will expand strongly out to 2019. Cheese production will grow strongly as international exports will be in high demand. Poultry output growth will outperform that of the broader livestock sector as soft economic growth will encourage consumption.

Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (2011-2019)

Key Forecasts

  • Wheat production growth 2013/14 to 2018/19: 2.7% to 40.0mn tonnes. We expect wheat to remain one of the most profitable crops in the country and the most in demand crop for domestic use and exports.

  • Poultry consumption growth to 2019: 4.9% to 1.7mn tonnes. We see stronger long-term demand growth for poultry than for pork or beef owing to poultry's general affordability and reputation for better health benefits than red meat.

  • Cheese production growth to 2018/19: 12.0% to 2.2mn tonnes. Over the longer term, we expect consolidation in the dairy industry to allow producers to take advantage of export demand. We also expect lower milk prices in Europe due to the end of production quotas from April 2015. The European Commission's decision to adopt new legislation allowing producers to collectively negotiate contracts with processors will improve the profitability of milk production, in turn supporting output.

  • 2015 real GDP growth: 0.9% (up from 0.4% in 2014).

  • 2015 consumer price inflation: 0.4% average (flat on 2014).

  • BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD67.0bn in 2015/16, a 1.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase.

Milk production will grow by just 0.5% y-o-y in...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Agribusiness
9
Operational Risk
11
Industry Forecast
12
Dairy Outlook
12
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (France 2014-2019)
13
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (France 2014-2019)
13
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (France 2014-2019)
13
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (France 2009-2014)
18
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (France 2009-2014)
18
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (France 2009-2014)
18
Grains Outlook
20
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (France 2014-2019)
20
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (France 2014-2019)
21
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (France 2014-2019)
21
Table: Wheat Supply Forecasts & Risks
24
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (France 2009-2014)
26
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (France 2009-2014)
26
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (France 2009-2014)
26
Livestock Outlook
28
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (France 2014-2019)
29
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (France 2014-2019)
29
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (France 2014-2019)
29
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (France 2009-2014)
32
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (France 2009-2014)
32
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (France 2009-2014)
32
Featured Analysis
34
Slower Palm Oil Demand Ahead With Biofuel Policy Reform
34
Table: European Union's Renewable Energy Directive Reform - Negotiation Process And Proposals
37
Table: Select Countries - Biofuel Consumption, Blend Targets And Actual Share In Transport Energy
38
Table: European Union Palm Oil Consumption (2005-2019)
40
European Agriculture: The Future Of The CAP
40
Table: EU - Agricultural Self-Sufficiency Ratios
48
Table: Select Commodities - European Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes)
52
Commodities Price Analysis
53
Monthly Softs Update
53
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & Bmi Forecasts
62
Monthly Grains Update
63
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & Bmi Forecasts
71
Upstream Analysis
72
Europe GM Outlook
72
Europe Machinery Outlook
78
Europe Fertiliser Outlook
84
Downstream Analysis
90
Food
90
Food Consumption
90
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (France 2012-2019)
90
Prepared Food/Canned Food
91
Confectionery
92
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (France 2012-2019)
93
Drink
94
Hot Drinks
94
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (France 2014-2019)
95
Soft Drinks
96
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade (France 2014-2019)
97
Alcoholic Drinks
98
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (France 2014-2019)
99
Mass Grocery Retail
101
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (France 2014-2019)
102
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format (%)
102
Regional Overview
103
Competitive Landscape
110
Table: Main Agribusiness Players
110
Demographic Forecast
111
Table: Population Headline Indicators (France 1990-2025)
112
Table: Key Population Ratios (France 1990-2025)
112
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (France 1990-2025)
113
Table: Population By Age Group (France 1990-2025)
113
Table: Population By Age Group % (France 1990-2025)
114
Methodology
116
Industry Forecast Methodology
116
Sector-Specific Methodology
117

The France Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's France Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc