France Metals Report

Published 19 August 2015

  • 46 pages
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$1,295.00
France Metals Report

BMI View: France's metals sector continues to be buffeted by global headwinds, including falling steel prices and increasing competition from low-cost overseas producers. We are expecting French steel output to decline this year, following a series of contractions in recent years. While we forecast production to begin growing again next years, overall output will remain significantly below levels seen 10 years ago.

Though still among the largest producers in Europe, France's steelmaking capabilities have receded considerably over the past. Standing at more than 20mn tonnes (20mnt) a year in the mid 2000s,in the decade since, the country's total crude steel output has contracted by about 25% and is forecast to dip under 16mnt this year following a year-on-year (y-o-y) decline of about 1.3%. Rising labour and production costs and falling competitiveness have combined with the effects of the global economic downturn and a sluggish French economy to sap investment as the country's larger producers have scaled back capacity. In particular, the future of France's steel sector remains clouded by uncertainty surrounding the future of ArcelorMittal's Florange steel mill, which, having been mothballed by the company in 2012, has morphed into an high-stake political dispute. By 2013, a deal by the government to save the plant from closure with a five-year investment programme appeared to have failed due to technical difficulties, but it seemed unlikely the government would carry through with its threat to nationalise the facility.

A Harsh New Environment
France: Steel Production 2007-2019
f=BMI forecast. Source: BMI calculation, World Steel Association

A gradual recovery in domestic steel demand is forecast as automobile production and construction activity start to pick up over the next few years. However, With French exporters continuing to underperform on the global stage and facing increasing competition from the likes of China, we are expecting the investment...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Metals SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Steel: Weak Growth Outlook As Economy Stalls
11
Demand: Improving Outlook For Autos In 2015
13
Table: Steel Production & Consumption (France 2010-2018)
14
Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (France 2006-2013)
14
Commodities Forecast
16
Commodity Strategy
16
Ferrous Metals
16
Non-Ferrous Metals:
19
Aluminium: Price Headwinds To Persist Despite Market Tightness
19
Copper: Bounce To Prove Temporary
20
Nickel: Multiple Price Headwinds To Persist
22
Zinc: No Sustained Gains
25
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
26
Steel: Prices To Head Higher From 2016
27
Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast
27
Short-Term Outlook (three-to-six months)
27
Long-Term Outlook
28
Production: Chinese Rationalisation Measures To Bite
29
Consumption: Slowing Demand Growth On The Horizon
30
Burgeoning Chinese Exports Will Not Last
31
Eurozone Growth Downgrade Highlights Long Road To Recovery
32
Risks To Price Forecast
32
Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
33
Competitive Landscape
34
Table: Metals Industry - Key Facilities
34
Table: Largest Listed European Listed Metals Producers
35
Company Profile
38
Rio Tinto - Q115
38
Company Overview
40
Company Strategy
41
Latest Financial Results
42
Table: Rio Tinto - Key Financial Data
44
ArcelorMittal
45
Company Overview
47
Company Strategy
47
Latest Financial Results
49
Company Details
49
Financial Data
49
Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data
49
Methodology
50
Cross Checks
50

The France Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by BMI Research's macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in France.

BMI's France Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in France.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent metals industry forecasts for France to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the France metals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in France through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company profiles on your competitors and peers.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

A comprehensive summary of the impact and implications of the latest regulatory developments and key forecast indicators covering metals production, consumption and upside/downside risks to our outlook. The Metals SWOT analysis outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Industry Forecast

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Steel: Steel production & consumption (‘000 tonnes).
  • Aluminium: Aluminium consumption production & balance (‘000 tonnes).
  • Copper: Refined copper production & consumption (‘000 tonnes).
  • Zinc: Refined zinc production & consumption (‘000 tonnes).
  • Lead: Refined Lead production, consumption & balance (‘000 tonnes).
  • Nickel: Refined nickel production & consumption (‘000 tonnes).
  • Tin: Refined tin production, consumption & balance (‘000 tonnes).

Regulatory Development

Details of the industry regulatory framework, relevant key legislation and environmental standards that impact the metals industry. The regulatory developments section provides analysis of the overall regulatory burden, the tax regime (including income tax rates), bureaucratic framework, corruption and a country specific political overview. Details of the industry regulatory framework provide information on relevant key legislation and regulations that will impact the metals industry.

Commodities Forecast

Provides in depth coverage and forecasting of steel prices and includes BMI’s core view of what to expect in upcoming months. Within the monthly metals update, BMI provides performance data and key forecasts for select commodities, including prices for aluminium, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, nickel, palladium, platinum, silver, steel (MEPS Carbon Steel), tin and zinc.

Competitive landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses of detailed financial data for key listed metals firms, ranked in order of market cap (USDmn).

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive position and short to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects. Details of products and services provide a full overview of each company’s operations.

Sources

The Metals Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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