France Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Competitive Landscape.

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France Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: The uptick in private consumption and economic growth in France will benefit the pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through the coming quarters. However, despite an improving regional and domestic economic environment, France's pharmaceutical market growth is expected to remain in negative territory in 2016, before it resumes expansion. Meanwhile, fixed investment rates are also expected to recover in 2016, although structural impediments will continue to hinder a more significant upturn in activity in the near term, including in the pharmaceutical sector.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: EUR33.69bn (USD45.14bn) in 2014 to EUR33.46bn (USD36.80bn) in 2015; -0.7% in local currency terms and -18.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast in line with last quarter.

  • Healthcare: EUR246.20bn (USD329.91bn) in 2014 to EUR253.47bn (USD278.82bn) in 2015; +3.0% in local currency terms and -15.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast in line with last quarter.

Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (France 2013-2019)
2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI
Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn 44.929 45.145 36.802 35.679 36.903 39.029 41.482
Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP 1.61 1.58 1.53 1.48 1.44 1.41 1.39
Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure 14.2 13.7 13.2 12.8 12.4 12.2 12.0
Health spending, USDbn 317.082 329.910 278.822 279.293 296.526 320.497 346.090

Risk/Reward Index

In Q116 France RRI score remains unchanged from last quarter at 70.5 out of a maximum 100 points. Under BMI's RRI matrix, France stands as the third most attractive market to pharmaceutical investors out of 15 markets in Western Europe. France's score is boosted by the large multi-billion dollar drug market (market expenditure score of 16.0 out of 20), and large pensionable population (pensionable population score of 8.0 out of 8), but dragged down by poor market expansion (sector value growth score of 0.0 out of 12).

Latest Updates

November 2015

  • French drugmaker Sanofi entered a licensing agreement with German biotechnology firm BioNTech, meaning Sanofi will acquire the rights to five discovery-stage cancer immunotherapies, each relying on BioNTech's proprietary messenger RNA platform, including a USD60mn up-front payment for BioNTech as well as up to USD300mn per project payments on development, regulatory, and commercial milestones (Fierce Biotech).

  • Sanofi's CEO Olivier Brandicourt stated that investments in new drugs and headwinds for the sales of its diabetes therapies would deprive the company of 'any meaningful' profit growth in 2016 and 2017.

October 2015

  • Private equity companies BC Partners, Bridgepoint and Charterhouse Capital Partners are among the bidders competing to acquire France-based drugmaker Cooper, which could bring in about EUR700mn (USD789mn) for Cooper.

  • UK-based drugmaker GlaxoSmithKline announced that it will close research and development (R&D) activities at its Les Ulis site in France, shifting the work to two major new sites in Stevenage, the UK, and a site near Philadelphia in the US, indicating that GlaxoSmithKline will look for another pharmaceutical firm to acquire the French facility and its operations.

  • France's Health Minister Marisol Touraine called for the need to urgently reduce excessive consumption of antibiotics in the country, after new figures revealed that as many as 13,000 people were losing their lives annually due to drug resistant bacterial infections caused by massive consumption of antibiotics (the figures showed that the French take 30% more antibiotics than the European average and 35% higher than in the US) (the Local).

BMI Economic View: French economic growth will accelerate in 2016 and 2017 as an uptick in external demand will foster a return to higher rates of investment. Private consumption will remain a key driver of growth but will slow relative to 2015 as inflation returns to higher levels.

BMI Political View: The stagnation of the French economy during the administration of President Francois Hollande will result in losses for the governing Socialist Party at the December 2015 regional elections, with the centre-right Republicans and the far-right National Front set to benefit. The result of these regional elections will serve as an indication of the 2017 presidential outcome where we expect a similar shift in support towards right-leaning candidates. The November 13 terror attacks in Paris and the migrant crisis in the EU will provide further support to this view.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Operational Risk
13
Industry Forecast
14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
14
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (France 2011-2019)
17
Healthcare Market Forecast
17
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (France 2011-2019)
20
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (France 2011-2019)
20
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (France 2011-2019)
21
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
21
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (France 2011-2019)
23
Patented Drug Market Forecast
23
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (France 2011-2019)
25
Generic Drug Market Forecast
25
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (France 2011-2019)
29
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
29
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (France 2011-2019)
32
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
32
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (France 2013-2019)
34
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (France 2013-2019)
35
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
35
Macroeconomic Forecasts
37
Economic Analysis
37
Table: GDP Contribution To Growth (France 2012-2020)
44
Industry Risk Reward Indices
45
Western Europe Risk/Reward Index - Q4 2015
45
France Risk/Reward Index
50
Rewards
50
Risks
50
Market Overview
52
Industry Trends And Developments
54
Epidemiology
54
Health System Structure And Financing
55
Prescription Drugs
57
Healthcare Financing: Cost Containment Measures
58
Healthcare Provision
60
Public Hospitals
61
Table: Hospital Activity, 2005-2009
62
Table: Hospital Activity in Short-Stay Units, 2009
63
Table: Diagnostic & Therapeutic Procedures Performed In Public & Private Hospitals, 2009
64
Table: Projected Regional Ranking Of Physicians, 2017
65
Table: Health Status
66
Table: Healthcare Funding
66
Table: Healthcare Resources (France 2009-2014)
67
Table: Healthcare Personnel (France 2009-2014)
67
Table: Healthcare Activity (France 2009-2014)
68
Research & Development
68
Biotechnology
70
Clinical Trials
72
Regulatory Development
75
Intellectual Property Issues
77
Pricing & Reimbursement
78
Table: France Reimbursement Categories
78
Biosimilars
81
OTC Medicines
86
Competitive Landscape
88
Research-Based Industry
88
Generic Drugmakers
91
Pharmaceutical Distribution
91
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
92
Company Profile
94
GlaxoSmithKline
94
Ipsen
97
Merck & Co
101
Novartis
103
Pfizer
106
Sanofi
109
Servier
118
Demographic Forecast
123
Table: Population Headline Indicators (France 1990-2025)
124
Table: Key Population Ratios (France 1990-2025)
124
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (France 1990-2025)
125
Table: Population By Age Group (France 1990-2025)
125
Table: Population By Age Group % (France 1990-2025)
126
Glossary
128
Methodology
130
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
130
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
130
Notes On Methodology
131
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
132
Index Overview
133
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
133
Indicator Weightings
134

The France Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's France Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the France pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for France, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the French pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the French pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in France.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.