France Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Competitive Landscape.

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France Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report
Product Price
$1,345.00

BMI View: France's pharmaceutical spending will return to positive , but nonetheless unimpressive, growth in 2017 with gradual expansion in the years ahead. That said, investment in France's pharmaceutical industry remained relatively subdued in 2016 due in part to regulatory and labour market rigiditie s - a trend set to receive additional support as investors adopt a cautious approach in the face of rising economic and political uncertainty in the coming quarters. Despite these challenges, France's healthcare market fundamentals will continue to create opportunities for drugmakers, especially over the second half of our forecast period .

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: EUR33.46bn (USD37.11bn) in 2015 to EUR33.34bn (USD35.67bn) in 2016; -0.3% in local currency terms and -3.9% in US dollar terms. Forecast in line with last quarter.

  • Healthcare: EUR251.26bn (USD278.67bn) in 2015 to EUR257.41bn (USD275.43bn) in 2016; +2.5% in local currency terms and -1.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards from last quarter.

Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (France 2014-2020)
2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
f = BMI forecast. Source: National sources, WHO, BMI
Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn 44.698 37.106 35.674 35.068 34.288 34.074 34.708
Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP 1.58 1.53 1.49 1.46 1.42 1.39 1.37
Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure 13.7 13.3 13.0 12.6 12.3 12.1 11.9
Health spending, USDbn 326.476 278.665 275.432 277.718 277.919 281.348 291.186

Risk/Reward Index

In Q117, we have revised France's Risk/Reward Index (RRI) score downward to 69.5, from 73.1 in the previous quarter (out of 100). The revision was driven mainly by lower sector value growth indices. France is ranked seventh in terms of market attractiveness to pharmaceutical investors out of the 15 markets in Western Europe covered by BMI's RRI matrix. France's score is boosted by the large multi-billion dollar drug market and large pensionable population, but dragged down by the market's modest expansion.

Latest Updates

  • In October 2016, Domain Therapeutics and Medicxi created Mavalon Therapeutics, a company focused on stopping the progression of Parkinson's disease.

  • Also in October, GlaxoSmithKline and Oncodesign signed an agreement for Oncodesign to acquire the Francois Hyafil Research Centre from GlaxoSmithKline in France.

  • According to the financing project of the Social Security Act (PLFSS) for 2017, adopted by the Council of Ministers on October 5 2016, the growth rate of the national target for health insurance spending (ONDAM) is set to increase to 2.1% (from 1.75% originally planned). The cost of a standard visit with a general practitioner is set to grow to EUR25 from EUR23 on May 1 2017.

  • As part of the ongoing reassessment of the effectiveness of four anti-Alzheimer's drugs currently on the market, on October 26 2016, the High Authority for Health (HAS) reported on the insufficient effectiveness of such drugs in altering the disease's progression. However, Minister of Health Marisol Touraine stated that there will be no delisting of these medicines in the absence of an alternative care protocol.

BMI Economic View

French economic growth will remain subdued in the quarters ahead, due in particular to flagging output in the industrial and construction sectors. Although the service economy continues to prove relatively resilient to external and internal weaknesses, France's important tourism industry will suffer over security concerns following multiple terrorist attacks.

BMI Political View

Security and terrorism will take centre stage ahead of the French presidential election in 2017, benefiting the parties of the right. A contest between the conservatives and the far-right is the most likely scenario in the second round of the elections. The ruling Socialists may well be headed towards a repetition of their election defeat seen in the first round of the elections in 2002.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (France 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
11
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (France 2012-2020)
13
Healthcare Market Forecast
15
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (France 2012-2020)
18
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (France 2012-2020)
19
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (France 2012-2020)
19
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
20
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (France 2012-2020)
21
Patented Drug Market Forecast
22
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (France 2012-2020)
23
Generic Drug Market Forecast
24
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (France 2012-2020)
26
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
27
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (France 2012-2020)
29
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
30
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (France 2014-2020)
32
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (France 2014-2020)
32
Industry Risk/Reward Index
33
Western Europe Risk/Reward Index
33
France Risk/Reward Index
38
Rewards
38
Risks
38
Regulatory Review
40
Intellectual Property Issues
42
Pricing & Reimbursement Regime
43
Table: France Reimbursement Categories
44
Market Overview
53
Healthcare Sector
54
Table: Projected Regional Ranking Of Physicians, 2017
60
Table: Healthcare Personnel (France 2010-2015)
61
Table: Healthcare Activity (France 2010-2015)
61
Table: Healthcare Resources (France 2010-2015)
62
Research & Development
63
Clinical Trials
67
Epidemiology
69
Competitive Landscape
71
Research-Based Industry
71
Table: Table: Multinational Market Activity
73
Generic Drugmakers
74
Pharmaceutical Distribution
75
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
76
Company Profile
78
GlaxoSmithKline
78
Ipsen
81
Merck & Co
85
Novartis
88
Sanofi
91
Servier
99
Demographic Forecast
103
Table: Population Headline Indicators (France 1990-2025)
104
Table: Key Population Ratios (France 1990-2025)
104
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (France 1990-2025)
105
Table: Population By Age Group (France 1990-2025)
105
Table: Population By Age Group % (France 1990-2025)
106
Glossary
108
Methodology
110
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
110
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
110
Notes On Methodology
111
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
112
Index Overview
113
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
113
Indicator Weightings
114

The France Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's France Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the France pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for France, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the French pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the French pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in France.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.