BMI View: Despite the ongoing recovery in some high frequency indicators, subdued economic growth in France relative to regional peers will continue to weigh on the French government spending potential, posing downside risks to our pharmaceutical and healthcare sector forecasts. In line with our view in the previous quarter, France's lack of structural reform will continue to tarnish the country's appeal to pharmaceutical investors. That said, France's position as one of the three largest pharmaceutical markets in Western Europe will underpin renewed commercial opportunities for drugmakers over a multi-year horizon, with market growth rates expected to return to positive territory in 2017.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: EUR33.46bn (USD37.11bn) in 2015 to EUR33.33bn (USD35.66bn) in 2016; -0.4% in local currency terms and -3.9% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised slightly downwards from last quarter.
Healthcare: EUR252.15bn (USD279.66bn) in 2015 to EUR259.13bn (USD277.27bn) in 2016; +2.8% in local currency terms and -0.9% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards from last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||44.700||37.110||35.660||36.720||38.700||40.960||41.720|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.58||1.53||1.47||1.43||1.40||1.37||1.35|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||13.7||13.3||12.9||12.5||12.2||12.0||11.8|
|Health spending, USDbn||326.480||279.660||277.270||293.600||316.710||341.610||353.720|
In Q316, France's Risk/Reward Index (RRI) score remains unchanged at 73.1 out of the maximum 100 points. However, France has shifted downwards two ranking positions in terms of market attractiveness to pharmaceutical investors, now sixth out of the 15 markets in Western Europe covered by BMI's RRI matrix, lagging behind score improvements in regional peers. France's score is boosted by the large multi-billion dollar drug market and large pensionable population, but dragged down by modest market expansion.
As of April 2016, Novo Nordisk is planning to invest more than EUR100mn (USD112.83mn) in production facilities at its site in Chartres, France, in order to meet the increasing worldwide demand for its diabetes medicines.
In April 2016, European CRO Evotec secured a five-year compound management agreement with Pierre Fabre Laboratories, which will operate as a drug discovery solution based on data-driven resources focused on oncology, dermatology and CNS. Research models will continue to move towards closer collaborative relationships, catalyzing shifts within the CRO industry, with innovation, rather than size, becoming increasingly key.
As of March 2016, Sanofi Pasteur and Merck & Co (known as MSD outside the US and Canada) are planning to end their 22-year-old joint vaccines operations in Europe.
In March 2016, in line with the French government trend to delist medicines from the Liste-en-sus (a list of high cost medicines reimbursed outside hospitals' regular budget), a new government decree authorized the delisting of 20 drugs, including some cancer medicines, which was denounced by France's pharmaceutical industry association LEEM as a real threat to access.
In February 2016, OSE Pharma signed a proposed merger agreement with Effimune with the objective to create a new international enterprise that offers innovative immunotherapies.
BMI Economic View
The French government's watered-down labour market reform will neither significantly reduce unemployment nor raise the labour market participation rate. We expect resistance from unions and from within the socialist party to increase, which will weaken reforms further. French economic activity will not reignite in 2016 and 2017, with private consumption remaining the main growth driver.
BMI Political View
With the economy left in a dire state, security matters will dominate President Hollande's remainder of his first term. His growing unpopularity among the socialist party, the opposition, and the public will increasingly test his authority and reduce his chances of re-election.
The France Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's France Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the France pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for France, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the French pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the French pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in France.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.