BMI View: The uptick in private consumption and economic growth in France will benefit the pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through the coming quarters. However, despite an improving regional and domestic economic environment, France's pharmaceutical market growth is expected to remain in negative territory in 2016, before it resumes expansion. Meanwhile, fixed investment rates are also expected to recover in 2016, although structural impediments will continue to hinder a more significant upturn in activity in the near term, including in the pharmaceutical sector.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: EUR33.69bn (USD45.14bn) in 2014 to EUR33.46bn (USD36.80bn) in 2015; -0.7% in local currency terms and -18.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast in line with last quarter.
Healthcare: EUR246.20bn (USD329.91bn) in 2014 to EUR253.47bn (USD278.82bn) in 2015; +3.0% in local currency terms and -15.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast in line with last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||44.929||45.145||36.802||35.679||36.903||39.029||41.482|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.61||1.58||1.53||1.48||1.44||1.41||1.39|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||14.2||13.7||13.2||12.8||12.4||12.2||12.0|
|Health spending, USDbn||317.082||329.910||278.822||279.293||296.526||320.497||346.090|
In Q116 France RRI score remains unchanged from last quarter at 70.5 out of a maximum 100 points. Under BMI's RRI matrix, France stands as the third most attractive market to pharmaceutical investors out of 15 markets in Western Europe. France's score is boosted by the large multi-billion dollar drug market (market expenditure score of 16.0 out of 20), and large pensionable population (pensionable population score of 8.0 out of 8), but dragged down by poor market expansion (sector value growth score of 0.0 out of 12).
French drugmaker Sanofi entered a licensing agreement with German biotechnology firm BioNTech, meaning Sanofi will acquire the rights to five discovery-stage cancer immunotherapies, each relying on BioNTech's proprietary messenger RNA platform, including a USD60mn up-front payment for BioNTech as well as up to USD300mn per project payments on development, regulatory, and commercial milestones (Fierce Biotech).
Sanofi's CEO Olivier Brandicourt stated that investments in new drugs and headwinds for the sales of its diabetes therapies would deprive the company of 'any meaningful' profit growth in 2016 and 2017.
Private equity companies BC Partners, Bridgepoint and Charterhouse Capital Partners are among the bidders competing to acquire France-based drugmaker Cooper, which could bring in about EUR700mn (USD789mn) for Cooper.
UK-based drugmaker GlaxoSmithKline announced that it will close research and development (R&D) activities at its Les Ulis site in France, shifting the work to two major new sites in Stevenage, the UK, and a site near Philadelphia in the US, indicating that GlaxoSmithKline will look for another pharmaceutical firm to acquire the French facility and its operations.
France's Health Minister Marisol Touraine called for the need to urgently reduce excessive consumption of antibiotics in the country, after new figures revealed that as many as 13,000 people were losing their lives annually due to drug resistant bacterial infections caused by massive consumption of antibiotics (the figures showed that the French take 30% more antibiotics than the European average and 35% higher than in the US) (the Local).
BMI Economic View: French economic growth will accelerate in 2016 and 2017 as an uptick in external demand will foster a return to higher rates of investment. Private consumption will remain a key driver of growth but will slow relative to 2015 as inflation returns to higher levels.
BMI Political View: The stagnation of the French economy during the administration of President Francois Hollande will result in losses for the governing Socialist Party at the December 2015 regional elections, with the centre-right Republicans and the far-right National Front set to benefit. The result of these regional elections will serve as an indication of the 2017 presidential outcome where we expect a similar shift in support towards right-leaning candidates. The November 13 terror attacks in Paris and the migrant crisis in the EU will provide further support to this view.
The France Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's France Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the France pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for France, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the French pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the French pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in France.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.