With Gabon's economy so reliant on the hydrocarbons sector, there are a number of reasons why we have revised down our vehicle sales forecasts for 2015-2019.
Firstly, lower oil prices will reduce government income, which will have a knock on effect for a sector reliant on government sales. As we previously pointed out during the audit, the biggest impact will come in the SUV and pick-up segments, which are the most popular, especially for government sale, due to their suitability for the poor state of the roads. In 2013, the two segments combined accounted for around 75% of the total new vehicle market and so any hit to these segments will be the biggest driver of the overall market's performance.
Added to the lower prices is the disruption in the oil sector, and fuel shortages, caused by strikes at the end of 2014. Even when the immediate strike action is over, our Country Risk team expects social unrest to continue in early 2015.
Therefore, while we still forecast a return to growth in new vehicle sales from 2015, we have lowered the rate of growth to 4.0% for passenger cars and 8% for LCVs as this is the most popular segment. It will be 2016 before we expect to see the market surpass the 2011 record. By 2019, the total new vehicle market will surpass 7,000 units, led by the LCV segment, which we forecast to average growth of 12% over 2016-19, compared with 8% for the total market.
Over the long term, there is still a major obstacle to new vehicle sales growth. While restrictions on used car imports could have a slightly positive impact on the new cars segment, we still believe the highly competitive used car market will continue to limit growth in the new car segment. Local news sources have reported that the price differential between a brand new and nearly new vehicle is quite significant, prompting most consumers to opt for second-hand cars.
The Gabon Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
BMI Research's Gabon Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Gabon.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Gabon to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Gabonese automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Gabonese automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Gabon.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.
BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.