According to Renault, total industry auto sales in Gabon for June 2015 came in at 325 units, an increase of 0.6% y-o-y, bringing sales for H115 to 2,118 units, a decline of 3.5% y-o-y. The government spending audit, which first began in 2014, is evidently still impacting the market despite our initial expectation for its impact to dissipate in 2015. We have therefore revised our full-year sales forecast and now expect sales to contract 3.4% in 2015 versus 4.8% growth previously.
Besides the government audit, the fall in crude oil prices has also hurt Gabon's economy. As the value of Gabon's crude oil exports falls in line with lower crude prices, our Country Risk team expects slower economic growth of 4.5% in 2015 versus 5.4% previously. Furthermore, with our Oil & Gas team forecasting oil prices to remain subdued over the 2015-2019 period, we forecast moderate average auto sales growth over the 2016-2019 period. Auto sales will rise at an annual average of 6.4% over the 2016-2019 period compared with average annual growth of 6.7% over the 2010-2014 period. As we previously pointed out during the audit, the biggest impact will come in the SUV and pick-up segments, which are the most popular, especially for government sale, due to their suitability for the poor state of the roads. In 2013, the two segments combined accounted for around 75% of the total new vehicle market and so any hit to these segments will be the biggest driver of the overall market's performance.
Added to the lower prices is the disruption in the oil sector, and fuel shortages, caused by strikes at the end of 2014. Even when the immediate strike action is over, our Country Risk team expects social unrest to continue in early 2015.
The Gabon Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
BMI Research's Gabon Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Gabon.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Gabon to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Gabonese automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Gabonese automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Gabon.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.
BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.