Gabon Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Gabon Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Gabon's oil sector remains vulnerable to the decline in global oil prices, with reports of delays to a key upstream project on the back of uncertain economic conditions . Continued upstream investment is indicative of the market's untapped potential, but above ground worries ranging from industrial action to unattractive fiscal terms will remain obstacles to the sustained investment necessary to reverse declining reserves and output.

Headline Forecasts (Gabon 2013-2019)
2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 239.3 219.0 201.0 196.4 189.6 183.2 175.4
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6
Refined products production, 000b/d 19.6 15.7 18.8 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 20.0 20.5 21.2 22.1 23.2 24.4 25.6
Brent, USD/bbl 108.70 99.50 55.00 54.00 53.00 60.00 64.00

The main trends and developments we highlight for Gabon's oil and gas sector are as follows:

  • Gabon will be among the countries least exposed to a regional slowdown in exploration spending, due to the more proven nature of its basins, high prospectivity and the range of companies active in its waters. However, Gabon will need to significantly relax its fiscal terms, if it is to secure new investment in its flagging oil and gas sector. This is notably the case in the context of the 11th Licensing Round announced for 2016.

  • Gabon's oil production will remain in a downtrend despite redevelopment works and field tie-ins slightly stemming the production decline. The country's ability to offset output decline from its major maturing oilfields hinges on development of its pre-salt resources.

  • The Dussafu pre-salt development poses upside risk to our forecast from around the end of the decade, but the outlook for the project remains uncertain. It was reported that operator Harvest planned to drill additional wells on the Dussafu permit before reaching a conclusion on how best to develop the block, and in August 2015 Panor Energy, a partner on the block, took a USD32.4mn charge after it was announced the entire development would be reviewed.Declining domestic crude output and rising domestic fuels consumption will see Gabon's net oil exports continue to fall over the course of our forecast period.

  • While most upstream activity in Gabon is focused on liquids, there is some limited potential upside from the development of recent natural gas discoveries. There were reports Royal Dutch Shell was considering a liquefied natural gas (LNG) option for development of the deepwater Leopard-1 discovery in the BCD10 license.

  • The absence of a clear investment plan to capture and monetise gas informs our bearish outlook on Gabon's gas sector. Harnessing gas will require infrastructure which the country lacks, and there is uncertainty over the commerciality of the country's offshore gas resources.

  • Gabon's oil and gas infrastructure is critically limited. The only significant downstream oil asset is the 24,000b/d SOGARA refinery, which has been heavily underutilised in recent quarters due to supply disruptions.

  • With limited domestic consumption, the bulk of Gabon's crude oil production is targeted for export. However, domestic consumption is set to see moderate growth across our 10-year forecast period and this, alongside falling crude output and the lower oil prices over the period, will weigh heavily on the country's oil revenues.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Gabon 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Gabon 2013-2018)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Gabon 2019-2024)
11
Upstream Projects
15
Table: Gabon Major Upstream Projects
15
Upstream Production - Oil
16
Table: Oil Production (Gabon 2013-2018)
16
Table: Oil Production (Gabon 2019-2024)
16
Upstream Production - Gas
20
Table: Gas Production (Gabon 2019-2024)
20
Refining
22
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Gabon 2013-2018)
22
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Gabon 2019-2024)
23
Refined Fuels Consumption
25
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Gabon 2013-2018)
25
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Gabon 2019-2024)
25
Gas Consumption
30
Table: Gas Consumption (Gabon 2013-2018)
30
Table: Gas Consumption (Gabon 2019-2024)
30
Trade - Oil
32
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Gabon 2013-2018)
32
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Gabon 2019-2024)
32
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Gabon 2013-2018)
35
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Gabon 2019-2024)
35
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Gabon 2013-2018)
37
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Gabon 2019-2024)
37
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
38
Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
38
Table: BMI's Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
38
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential
41
Table: BMI's Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index
41
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity
44
Table: BMI's Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index
44
Gabon - Risk/Reward Ratings
46
Gabon - Upstream Index
46
Gabon - Downstream Index
46
Market Overview
47
Gabon Energy Market Overview
47
Overview/State Role
50
Licensing And Regulation
50
Government Policy
51
Licensing Rounds
52
Table: Upstream Projects Database
54
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
54
Oil Refineries
54
Gas Facilities
55
Competitive Landscape
56
Competitive Landscape Summary
56
Table: Key Players - Gabon Energy Sector
57
Company Profile
58
Addax Petroleum
58
Other Summaries
61
Regional Overview
68
Africa Oil & Gas Regional Overview
68
Global Industry Overview
76
Global Energy Market Overview
76
Table: Top 10 Global Oil Producers - Crude Oil, Condensates & NGLs Production ('000b/d)
76
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
79
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
80
Appendix
82
Africa - Regional Appendix
82
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
82
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
83
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
83
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
85
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
86
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
87
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
88
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
88
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
89
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
90
Table: LNG Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
91
Table: LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
92
Glossary
93
Table: Glossary Of Terms
93
Methodology
95
Industry Forecast Methodology
95
Source
97
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
97
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
99
Table: Weighting
100

The Gabon Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Gabon including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Gabon Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Gabonese oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Gabon to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Gabonese oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Gabonese oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Gabon.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.