Gabon Oil & Gas Report

Published 29 June 2015

  • 102 pages
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$1,295.00
Gabon Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: The outlook on Gabon's upstream sector is relatively bearish, as maturing oilfields and a lack of new production push output into terminal decline. New fiscal terms that increase the state's role in the oil and gas sector and levies imposed on the operators are also likely to add downside to the production profile. However, shallow water pre-salt developments offer substantial upside risk, in the second half of our forecast period. Deepwater pre-salt exploration remains highly prospective, although may feel strain in a lower oil price environment. We expect little growth in the upstream gas sector, due to the lack of export options and limited demand domestically.

Headline Forecasts (Gabon 2013-2019)
2013e 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 239.3 244.0 251.4 253.9 249.3 244.8 238.4
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 21.1 16.9 20.2 20.8 20.8 20.8 20.8

The main trends and developments we highlight for Gabon's oil and gas sector are as follows:

  • While we expect some near-term gains in oil production, the longer term trend for Gabon's oil sector is one of decline, due to both natural depletion at maturing fields and limited new production coming on stream. The Dussafu pre-salt development poses upside risk to our forecast from 2018.

  • Although Gabon's deepwater potential offers significant upside risk to our view, the country's new hydrocarbons law has materially worsened fiscal and regulatory terms for international oil and gas companies.

  • The absence of a clear investment plan to capture and monetise gas informs our bearish outlook on Gabon's gas sector. Harnessing gas will require infrastructure which...

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Gabon 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Upstream Exploration
10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Gabon 2013-2018)
10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Gabon 2019-2024)
10
Upstream Projects
14
Table: Gabon Major Upstream Projects
14
Upstream Production - Oil
15
Table: Oil Production (Gabon 2013-2018)
15
Table: Oil Production (Gabon 2019-2024)
15
Upstream Production - Gas
19
Table: Gas Production (Gabon 2019-2024)
19
Refining
21
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Gabon 2013-2018)
21
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Gabon 2019-2024)
21
Refined Fuels Consumption
23
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Gabon 2013-2018)
23
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Gabon 2019-2024)
23
Gas Consumption
27
Table: Gas Consumption (Gabon 2013-2018)
27
Table: Gas Consumption (Gabon 2019-2024)
27
Trade - Oil
29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Gabon 2013-2018)
29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Gabon 2019-2024)
29
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Gabon 2013-2018)
31
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Gabon 2019-2024)
32
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Gabon 2013-2018)
34
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Gabon 2019-2024)
34
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
35
Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
35
Table: BMI's Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
36
Above-Ground Risks Dampen Upstream Outlook
37
Table: BMI's Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index
37
Underperformance Continues Among African Majors
38
Emergent Markets Stumble At Regulatory Hurdles
39
Established Producers On The Downturn
40
An Underwhelming Downstream
40
Table: BMI's Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index
40
Gabon - Risk/Reward Ratings
43
Gabon - Upstream Index
43
Gabon - Downstream Index
43
Market Overview
44
Gabon Energy Market Overview
44
Overview/State Role
49
Licensing And Regulation
49
Government Policy
50
Licensing Rounds
50
Table: Upstream Projects Database
53
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
53
Oil Refineries
53
Gas Facilities
54
Competitive Landscape
55
Competitive Landscape Summary
55
Table: Key Players - Gabon Energy Sector
56
Company Profile
57
Addax Petroleum
57
Other Summaries
60
Regional Overview
66
Africa Oil & Gas Regional Overview
66
West Africa - Exploration Slowdown
66
Unconventionals: Window Of Opportunity Closing
68
East Africa: Resource Development Under Strain
70
High-Risk Continent
72
Downstream Blues
74
Global Industry Overview
76
Oil Price Outlook
76
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus Forecasts* WTI And Brent, Front Month - USD/bbl
76
Table: 2015-2016 - Fundamental Pressure On Oil Prices
77
Appendix
84
Africa - Regional Appendix
84
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
84
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
85
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
86
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
87
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
88
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
89
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
90
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
90
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
91
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
92
Table: LNG Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
93
Table: LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
94
Glossary
95
Table: Glossary Of Terms
95
Methodology
97
Industry Forecast Methodology
97
Source
99
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
99
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
101
Table: Weighting
102

The Gabon Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Gabon including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Gabon Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Gabonese oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Gabon to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Gabonese oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Gabonese oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Gabon.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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