BMI View: Gabon's oil sector remains vulnerable to the decline in global oil prices, with reports of delays to a key upstream project on the back of uncertain economic conditions . Continued upstream investment is indicative of the market's untapped potential, but above - ground worries ranging from industrial action to unattractive fiscal terms will remain obstacles to the sustained investment necessary to reverse declining reserves and output.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source EIA, BMI|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||219.0||216.8||210.9||202.6||194.6||187.0||179.6|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||15.4||18.5||19.1||19.1||19.2||19.2||19.3|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||19.4||20.3||21.2||22.3||23.4||24.6||26.0|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||0.4||0.5||0.5||0.6||0.6||0.6||0.6|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||0.4||0.5||0.5||0.6||0.6||0.6||0.6|
The main trends and developments we highlight for Gabon's oil and gas sector are as follows:
Gabon will be among the countries least exposed to a regional slowdown in exploration spending, due to the more proven nature of its basins, high prospectivity and the range of companies active in its waters. However, Gabon will need to significantly relax its fiscal terms if it is to secure new investment in its flagging oil and gas sector, notably in the offshore. Despite an existing model PSC for the ongoing 11th Licensing Round, we believe the country will likely sweeten the terms of its contracts, in particular the fiscal terms, on a case-by-case basis with companies to stimulate interest.
We hold a bearish outlook for Gabonese oil production over our forecast period. Despite redevelopment works and field tie-ins slightly stemming the production decline, a lack of major new developments and limited exploratory activities will see production remain in a downtrend over the forecast period.
As of late 2016, Shell is looking to sell its onshore assets in Gabon; assets that have experienced production decline since 2010. Shell is reportedly in 'advanced talks' with an unknown bidder for the sale of its Gabonese assets thought to be worth USD700mn. This yields downside risk to our Gabon oil production forecast: Shell's assets notably include the Rabi Kounga and Gamba fields. We will wait to see whether the fields are sold and to whom before updating our forecast.
Solid annual growth will see domestic demand for refined fuels reach 32,800b/d by 2025, mostly driven by rising consumption in the transport sector. However, we note there is downside risk to this forecast amid potential revisions to existing fuel subsidies.
Declining domestic crude output and rising domestic fuels consumption will see Gabon's net oil exports continue to fall over the course of our forecast period.
With a government drive to reduce gas flaring, we see gas production rising from an estimated 0.45bcm in 2015 to 0.63bcm by 2018. Further upside risks exist past that date, but we will have to see whether projects move forward before including these into our forecast.
The Gabon Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Gabon including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Gabon Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Gabonese oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Gabon to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Gabonese oil and gas market.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:
- Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
- Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
- Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.
BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook
Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.
The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.