Gabon Oil & Gas Report

Published 13 April 2015

  • 101 pages
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$1,295.00
Gabon Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: The outlook on Gabon's upstream sector is relatively bearish, as maturing oilfields and a lack of new production push output into terminal decline. However, shallow water pre-salt developments offer substantial upside risk, in the second half of our forecast period. Deepwater pre-salt exploration remains highly prospective, although may feel strain in a lower oil price environment. We expect little growth in the upstream gas sector, due to the lack of export options and limited demand domestically.

Headline Forecasts (Gabon 2013-2019)
2013e 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 239.3 244.0 251.4 253.9 249.3 244.8 238.4
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 21.1 16.9 20.2 20.8 20.8 20.8 20.8

The main trends and developments we highlight for Gabon's oil and gas sector are as follows:

  • While we expect some near-term gains in oil production, the longer term trend for Gabon's oil sector is one of decline, due to both natural depletion at maturing fields and limited new production coming on stream. The Dussafu pre-salt development poses upside risk to our forecast from 2018.

  • Although Gabon's deepwater potential offers significant upside risk to our view, the country's new hydrocarbons law has materially worsened fiscal and regulatory terms for international oil and gas companies.

  • The absence of a clear investment plan to capture and monetise gas informs our bearish outlook on Gabon's gas sector. Harnessing gas will require infrastructure which the country lacks, and we question the commerciality of the country's offshore gas resources.

  • Gabon's oil and gas infrastructure is critically limited. The only...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Gabon 2012-2018)
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Upstream Exploration
10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Gabon 2012-2017)
10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Gabon 2018-2023)
10
Upstream Projects
14
Table: Gabon Major Upstream Projects
14
Upstream Production - Oil
15
Table: Oil Production (Gabon 2012-2017)
15
Table: Oil Production (Gabon 2018-2023)
15
Upstream Production - Gas
17
Table: Gas Production (Gabon 2012-2017)
17
Table: Gas Production (Gabon 2018-2023)
18
Refining
20
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Gabon 2012-2017)
20
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Gabon 2018-2023)
20
Refined Fuels Consumption
22
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Gabon 2012-2017)
22
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Gabon 2018-2023)
22
Gas Consumption
23
Table: Gas Consumption (Gabon 2012-2017)
24
Table: Gas Consumption (Gabon 2018-2023)
24
Trade - Oil
25
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Gabon 2012-2017)
26
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Gabon 2018-2023)
26
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Gabon 2012-2017)
28
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Gabon 2018-2023)
28
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Gabon 2012-2017)
30
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Gabon 2018-2023)
30
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
31
Africa - Risk/Reward Ratings
31
Table: BMI's Africa Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
31
Riches Lie Underground, While Above-Ground Risks Continue To Loom
34
Table: BMI's Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
34
A Dimming Outlook for Emergent Producers
34
Angola in the Ascendant
35
Brightening Horizons to the West
36
Mature Producers Continue to Disappoint
36
An Underwhelming Downstream
38
Table: BMI's Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
38
Gabon - Risk/Reward Ratings
39
Gabon - Upstream Ratings
39
Gabon - Downstream Ratings
39
Market Overview
40
Gabon Energy Market Overview
40
Overview/State Role
45
Licensing And Regulation
45
Government Policy
46
Licensing Rounds
46
Table: Upstream Projects Database
49
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
49
Oil Refineries
49
Gas Facilities
50
Competitive Landscape
51
Competitive Landscape Summary
51
Table: Key Players - Gabon Energy Sector
52
Company Profile
53
Addax Petroleum
53
Other Summaries
56
Regional Overview
62
Africa Overview
62
Rising Offshore Interest
62
Unconventionals : New Frontier
65
East Africa: Offshore Gas, Onshore Oil
66
Downstream Blues
68
High-Risk Continent
71
Global Industry Overview
74
Global Energy Market Overview
74
Appendix
80
Africa - Regional Appendix
80
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
80
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
81
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
81
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
82
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
83
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
83
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
84
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
85
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
85
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
86
Table: LNG Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
87
Table: LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
87
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
88
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2012-2017
88
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2018-2023
89
Glossary
91
Table: Glossary Of Terms
91
Methodology
93
Industry Forecast Methodology
93
Source
95
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
95
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
97
Table: Weighting
98

The Gabon Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Gabon including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Gabon Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Gabonese oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Gabon to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Gabonese oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Gabonese oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Gabon.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc