Germany Agribusiness Report

Published 02 April 2015

  • 115 pages
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$1,295.00
Germany Agribusiness Report

BMI View: German pork producers will come under pressure, owing to the ban on meat imports from Western countries that has been imposed by Russian authorities. On the other hand, sugar production should expand at a stronger pace over the coming years, owing to an increase in growing areas and yields, as well as the potential end to the EU's sugar production quota in 2017. Wheat output should also have a strong harvest in 2014/15, altho ugh there are some concerns about wheat quality owing to wet spells.

Key Forecasts

  • Milk production growth from 2013/14 to 2018/19: 21.0% to 37.1mn tonnes. Modest growth will be supported by export demand and higher prices, and held back by sluggish domestic consumption and the demise of smaller producers.

  • Pork consumption contraction to 2019: 0.9% to 4.4mn tonnes. Although we expect lower prices to boost growth in 2014 and 2015, demand for pork has been on a downward trajectory since 2007 and we see no sustained let-up in this trend as consumers turn to healthier options.

  • Wheat production growth to 2018/19: 3.2% to 25.8mn tonnes. Wheat will gain some ground at the expense of other grains and sugar beet.

  • 2015 real GDP growth: 1.3%, up from 1.1% estimated for 2014, forecast to average 1.3% from 2015 to 2019.

  • 2015 consumer price inflation: 2.1%, up from 1.7% estimated for 2014, forecast to average 1.9% from 2015 to 2019

  • BMI universe agribusiness market value: up 0.4% to USD50.8bn in 2015. Expected to grow by 1.9% a year on average from 2015 to 2019.

Industry Developments

German pork producers will be among those hardest hit after Russia put in place a one-year long embargo on a range of goods, including all food products, from the EU, Norway, Switzerland, Australia, Canada and the US, which commenced in August 2014. In 2013, Russia imported around EUR1bn-worth of German pork products out of a total of EUR1.6bn-worth of German food and other agricultural produce. We have revised down our production forecasts...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Agribusiness
9
Business Environment
11
Industry Forecast
12
Grains Outlook
12
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Germany 2013-2018)
13
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Germany 2013-2018)
13
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (Germany 2013-2018)
14
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Germany 2008-2013)
18
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Germany 2008-2013)
18
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (Germany 2008-2013)
18
Livestock Outlook
20
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Germany 2013-2018)
21
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Germany 2013-2018)
21
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Germany 2013-2018)
22
Table: New Payment Schemes Under CAP Reforms
25
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Germany 2008-2013)
26
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Germany 2008-2013)
26
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Germany 2008-2013)
26
Dairy Outlook
28
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Germany 2013-2018)
29
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Germany 2013-2018)
29
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Germany 2013-2018)
30
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Germany 2008-2013)
33
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Germany 2008-2013)
33
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Germany 2008-2013)
33
Sugar Outlook
35
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Germany 2013-2018)
36
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Germany 2008-2013)
39
Commodities Price Analysis
41
Monthly Softs Strategy
41
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
49
Monthly Grains Strategy
50
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
59
Upstream Analysis
60
Europe GM Outlook
60
Europe Machinery Outlook
66
Europe Fertiliser Outlook
72
Downstream Analysis
79
Food
79
Food Consumption
79
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Germany 2011-2018)
80
Confectionery
80
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Germany 2011-2018)
81
Frozen Fruit And Vegetables
83
Table: Frozen Fruit & Vegetables Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Germany 2011-2018)
83
Snack Foods
84
Table: Sweet Biscuits Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Germany 2011-2018)
85
Table: Jams & Jellies Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast (Germany 2011-2018)
85
Pasta
86
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Germany 2011-2018)
86
Dairy
87
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Germany 2011-2018)
87
Meat
89
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast (Germany 2011-2018)
90
Fish
90
Oils & Fats
91
Drink
92
Soft Drinks And Bottled Water
92
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Germany 2011-2018)
93
Alcoholic Drinks
95
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Germany 2011-2018)
96
Hot Drinks
97
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Germany 2011-2018)
98
Mass Grocery Retail
100
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Germany 2011-2018)
101
Regional Overview
102
Competitive Landscape
108
Table: Germany - Key Agribusiness Players
108
Demographic Forecast
109
Table: Germany's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
110
Table: Germany's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
111
Table: Germany's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
112
Table: Germany's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
112
Methodology
113
Industry Forecast Methodology
113
Sector-Specific Methodology
114

The Germany Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Germany Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc