Germany Agribusiness Report

Published 08 July 2015

  • 116 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Germany Agribusiness Report

BMI View: While planting of the winter wheat crop went well and is reportedly in good condition, the substantial gain in output in 2014/15 informs our forecast for wheat production growth to decline modestly in the 2015/16 season. German pork producers will remain under pressure, owing to the ban on meat imports from Western countries that has been imposed by Russian authorities. On the other hand, sugar production should expand at a stronger pace over the coming years, owing to an increase in growing areas and yields, as well as the potential end to the EU's sugar production quota in 2017.

Key Forecasts

  • Milk production growth from 2013/14 to 2018/19: 21.0% to 37.1mn tonnes. Modest growth will be supported by export demand and higher prices, and held back by sluggish domestic consumption and the demise of smaller producers.

  • Pork consumption contraction to 2019: 0.9% to 4.4mn tonnes. Although we expect lower prices to boost growth in 2014 and 2015, demand for pork has been on a downward trajectory since 2007 and we see no sustained let-up in this trend as consumers turn to healthier options.

  • Wheat production growth to 2018/19: 3.2% to 25.8mn tonnes. Wheat will gain some ground at the expense of other grains and sugar beet.

  • 2015 real GDP growth: 1.9%, up from 1.6% estimated for 2014, forecast to average 1.5% from 2015 to 2019.

  • 2015 consumer price inflation: 2.1%, up from 1.7% estimated for 2014, forecast to average 1.9% from 2015 to 2019

  • BMI universe agribusiness market value: up 0.4% to USD34.2bn in 2015. Expected to grow by 1.9% a year on average from 2015 to 2019.

Industry Developments

German pork producers will be among those hardest hit after Russia put in place a one-year long embargo on a range of goods, including all food products, from the EU, Norway, Switzerland, Australia, Canada and the US, which commenced in August 2014. In 2013, Russia imported around EUR1bn-worth of German pork products out of a total of...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Agribusiness
9
Operational Risk
11
Industry Forecast
12
Grains Outlook
12
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Germany 2014-2019)
13
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Germany 2014-2019)
13
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (Germany 2014-2019)
13
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Germany 2009-2014)
17
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Germany 2009-2014)
17
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (Germany 2009-2014)
18
Livestock Outlook
19
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Germany 2014-2019)
20
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Germany 2014-2019)
20
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Germany 2014-2019)
21
Table: New Payment Schemes Under CAP Reforms
24
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Germany 2009-2014)
25
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Germany 2009-2014)
25
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Germany 2009-2014)
25
Dairy Outlook
27
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Germany 2014-2019)
28
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Germany 2014-2019)
28
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Germany 2014-2019)
29
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Germany 2009-2014)
32
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Germany 2009-2014)
32
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Germany 2009-2014)
32
Sugar Outlook
34
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Germany 2014-2019)
35
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Germany 2009-2014)
38
Commodities Price Analysis
39
Monthly Softs Strategy
39
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
48
Monthly Grains Strategy
49
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
56
Upstream Analysis
57
Europe GM Outlook
57
Europe Machinery Outlook
63
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates)
65
Europe Fertiliser Outlook
68
Downstream Analysis
74
Food
74
Food Consumption
74
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Germany 2012-2019)
75
Confectionery
75
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Germany 2012-2019)
76
Frozen Fruit And Vegetables
77
Table: Frozen Fruit & Vegetables Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Germany 2012-2019)
79
Snack Foods
79
Table: Sweet Biscuits Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Germany 2012-2019)
80
Pasta
82
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Germany 2012-2019)
83
Dairy
83
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Germany 2012-2019)
84
Meat
86
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast (Germany 2012-2019)
87
Fish
87
Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast (Germany 2012-2019)
88
Oils & Fats
89
Table: Oils & Fats Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast (Germany 2012-2019)
89
Drink
91
Soft Drinks
91
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade (Germany 2012-2019)
92
Alcoholic Drinks
94
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Germany 2012-2019)
95
Hot Drinks
96
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Germany 2012-2019)
97
Mass Grocery Retail
98
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Germany 2012-2019)
100
Regional Overview
101
Competitive Landscape
108
Table: Germany - Key Agribusiness Players
108
Demographic Forecast
109
Demographic Outlook
109
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Germany 1990-2025)
110
Table: Key Population Ratios (Germany 1990-2025)
110
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Germany 1990-2025)
111
Table: Population By Age Group (Germany 1990-2025)
111
Table: Population By Age Group % (Germany 1990-2025)
112
Methodology
114
Industry Forecast Methodology
114
Sector-Specific Methodology
115

The Germany Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Germany Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%