Germany Agribusiness Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the agribusiness industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, Supply & Demand Forecasts, Commodity Price Analysis and Company Profiles.

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  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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Germany Agribusiness Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: T he German agricultural system benefits from high levels of competitiveness, strong infrastructure and a very good farming industry knowhow. Grains, dairy and sugar will all stand to benefit this year and beyond. In the livestock sector, pork producers will be under pressure due to strained relations with Russia. Sugar and milk production will expand due to the removal of quotas . Over the short - term, the unexpected decline in milk prices due to the removal of the quota and lower demand from export markets is hurting smaller dairy farmers, a situation that Berlin has vowed to address promptly by offering subsidies and considering a temporary dairy production quota to help stabili s e national milk prices.

Key Forecasts

  • Corn consumption will grow by a healthy 3.5% in 2015/16 to reach 1.07mn tonnes.

  • Poultry production will grow by 2.2% in 2015/16 to reach 1.64mn tonnes.

  • We are estimating wheat production to decline by 3.7% in 2015/16 to reach 25.57mn tonnes, whereas sugar will grow by 5.0% to reach 27.52mn tonnes.

  • Corn production will grow by 11.6% in 2015/16 as the crop recovers from two consecutive years of negative growth.

German Agribusiness Industry Values
2013-2020
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: FAO

Industry Outlook

In March 2015, the EU put an end to its 30-year old milk quota. Milk quotas were introduced to ensure that oversupply of milk did not emerge from the EU. With the abolition, strong milk producers such as Germany are free to produce high amounts of milk with strong levels of efficiency and agricultural effectiveness to capitalise on global demand for milk. We suspect that German milk farmers will welcome this opportunity in the long run to produce high amounts of milk and exploit their comparative advantage while looking to find international markets for their dairy produce. Over the short term, the unexpected decline in milk prices in Germany is beginning to threaten some smaller dairy farmers. As the country has an overproduction of milk, prices have plummeted from a high of EUR0.42/kg half a decade ago to around EUR0.20/kg. Farmers have said that they require a minimum of EUR0.35/kg to remain competitive. Berlin has vowed to immediately address the situation and has established a EUR100mn relief plan for dairy farmers with financial difficulties. Furthermore, Berlin is considering a temporary domestic production quota to curb supply to maintain prices. We believe that milk prices move in cycles and will eventually return to a stable equilibrium. The trade embargo with Russia and lower demand from China are temporarily hurting the milk industry. We believe that Germany's dairy sector is one of the most competitive and efficient in the world and will recover in the next few years.

In June 2016, German pharmaceutical giant Bayer was in talks with Monsanto to buy the world's largest genetically modified (GM) seed maker for an all-cash bid of USD62bn. Germany is overwhelmingly against GM foods, and we believe that Bayer has a strategic rethink ahead if it indeed goes through with the deal. Bayer has been looking to rebrand itself as a 'life sciences' company, but such a deal would be one of the largest in agricultural history. Furthermore, it faces a significant uphill regulatory process including scrutiny from the US government, as it would raise concerns about food security.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Agribusiness
10
Industry Forecast
12
Sugar Outlook
12
Latest Updates
12
Table: Germany - Sugar Production & Consumption Outlook
12
Table: Risks To Outlook
13
Structural Trends
13
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Germany 2013-2020)
15
Grains Outlook
16
Latest Updates
16
Table: Germany - Grains Production & Consumption Outlook
16
Table: Risks To Outlook
17
Structural Trends
17
Table: Grains Production & Consumption (Germany 2013-2020)
20
Dairy Outlook
21
Latest Updates
21
Table: Germany - Dairy Production & Consumption Outlook
22
Table: Risks To Outlook
23
Structural Trends
23
Table: Dairy Production & Consumption (Germany Historical Data & Forecasts)
25
Livestock Outlook
26
Latest Updates
26
Table: Germany - Livestock Production & Consumption Outlook
26
Table: Risks To Outlook
27
Structural Trends
28
Table: CAP Payments
31
Table: Livestock Production & Consumption (Germany Historical Data & Forecasts)
31
Commodities Price Analysis
33
Global - Global Commodities Strategy
33
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And Bmi Forecasts
33
Upstream Analysis
35
Europe Machinery Outlook
35
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (company-based estimates)
39
Europe GM Outlook
41
Europe Fertiliser Outlook
47
Downstream Analysis
54
Food
54
Latest Updates
54
Structural Trends
55
Table: Food Sales (Germany 2013-2020)
55
Regional Overview
57
Europe Regional Overview
57
Competitive Landscape
62
Table: Germany - Key Agribusiness Players
62
Demographic Forecast
63
Demographic Outlook
63
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Germany 1990-2025)
64
Table: Key Population Ratios (Germany 1990-2025)
64
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Germany 1990-2025)
65
Table: Population By Age Group (Germany 1990-2025)
65
Table: Population By Age Group % (Germany 1990-2025)
66
Methodology
68
Industry Forecast Methodology
68
Sector-Specific Methodology
69

The Germany Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Germany Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.