BMI View: While planting of the winter wheat crop went well and is reportedly in good condition, the substantial gain in output in 2014/15 informs our forecast for wheat production growth to decline in the 2015/16 season. German pork producers will remain under pressure, owing to the ban on meat imports from Western countries that has been imposed by Russian authorities. On the other hand, sugar production could expand at a reasonable pace over the coming years, owing to an increase in growing areas and yields, as well as the potential end to the EU's sugar production quota in 2017.
Milk production growth from 2013/14 to 2018/19: 21.0% to 37. 1 mn tonnes. Modest growth will be supported by export demand and higher prices, and held back by sluggish domestic consumption and the demise of smaller producers.
Pork consumption contraction to 2019: 0.9% to 4. 37 mn tonnes. Although we expect lower prices to boost growth in 2014 and 2015, demand for pork has been on a downward trajectory since 2007 and we see no sustained let-up in this trend as consumers turn to healthier options.
Wheat production growth to 2018/19: 3 .2% to 2 5 .8mn tonnes. Wheat will gain some ground at the expense of other grains and sugar beet.
Sugar production growth to 2018/19: 39.5% to 31.9 mn tonnes. Confectionery will boost demand coupled with sales growth in soft drinks and juices.
2015 real GDP growth: 1.9%, up from 1.6% estimated for 2014, forecast to average 1.5% from 2015 to 2019.
2015 consumer price inflation: 0.4 %, down from 0.8% estimated for 2014, forecast to average 1.2% from 2015 to 2019.
BMI universe agribusiness market value: up 0.4% to USD51.0b n in 2015. Expected to grow by 1.9% a year on average from 2015 to 2019.
German pork producers will be among those hardest hit after Russia put in place a one-year long embargo on a range of goods, including all food products, from the EU, Norway, Switzerland, Australia,...
The Germany Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.
BMI's Germany Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.
BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts
Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.
- Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
- Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
- Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
- BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.
BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis
Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.
Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.
Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.
The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.
Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market
Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean
Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.
The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.