Germany Autos Report

Published 18 August 2015

  • 65 pages
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$1,295.00
Germany Autos Report

In 2015 and 2016, we expect to see further growth in vehicle sales in Germany, forecasting 5.3% and 4.7% growth, respectively. We project that 0.8% and 0.6% declines in heavy truck sales over the two years will be far outweighed by 5.3% and 4.0% expansion in the passenger car segment, an 8.0% and 3.4% increase in light commercial vehicle (LCV) sales and a 4.2% and 2.0% growth in the coach and bus segment.

Passenger car sales will provide the strongest boost to overall vehicle sales in terms of volume. In 2015 and 2016, the car market will benefit from Germany's consumers ramping-up spending in reaction to positive and robust macroeconomic factors. Most notably, growing real wages, record high labour force participation rates and falling unemployment - which reached a post-reunification low of 6.4% in June - all coupled with record low interest rates will provide the strongest boost to demand.

Adding to this, LCV sales will outperform all other segments in terms of y-o-y growth. LCVs will benefit from the country's resurging manufacturing industries particularly consumer goods industries alongside structural shift in CV demand toward smaller, more agile goods vehicles rather than larger heavy trucks.

In 2015, we forecast 1.2% growth in total vehicle production, to around 6.19mn units. Sales declines in Russia, a slowdown in passenger car sales expansions in Asia, ramp ups in production at German automakers' subsidiaries located outside of Germany and rising wage costs in the country will all keep vehicle output subdued. However, widespread recovery in market growth across the EU region, depreciation in the Euro making German exports more competitive, and Germany's growing domestic market will all ensure that modest growth comes to the German vehicle manufacturing industry.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
10
Economic
11
Operational Risk
12
Industry Forecast
13
Production, Sales And Trade
13
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2013-2019)
13
Sales
14
Production
14
Passenger Vehicles
18
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2013-2019)
18
Sector Developments
20
Commercial Vehicles
23
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2013-2019)
23
Motorcycles
27
Table: Motorcycle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2013-2019)
27
Table: Motorbike Sales By Brand, Units
27
Suppliers
28
Macroeconomic Forecasts
30
Economic Analysis
30
GDP By Expenditure
33
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Germany 2012-2019)
35
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
37
Europe - Risk/Reward Index
37
Table: Europe Autos Risk/Reward Index
40
Company Profile
42
Company Monitor
42
VW: Piech Out As VW Looks For Global Lead
42
PSA: Family Feud Clouds Ownership Future
42
Renault: Increased Government Influence Shakes Alliance
43
Regional Overview
45
Industry Trend Analysis
45
Global Industry Overview
48
Table: Passenger Car Sales March (CBUs)
48
US Slowdown A Temporary Glitch-
48
Europe Recovery Will Be Steady
50
Asia Carries The BRIC States
51
Demographic Forecast
53
Demographic Outlook
53
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Germany 1990-2025)
54
Table: Key Population Ratios (Germany 1990-2025)
54
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Germany 1990-2025)
55
Table: Population By Age Group (Germany 1990-2025)
55
Table: Population By Age Group % (Germany 1990-2025)
56
Methodology
58
Industry Forecasts
58
Sector-Specific Methodology
59
Sources
59
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
60
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Index Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
61

The Germany Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

BMI Research's Germany Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Germany.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Germany to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the German automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the German automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Germany.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.

BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company  developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country  investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Sources

The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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