BMI View: Germany's infrastructure industry will continue to expand at a moderate pace over the next five years, followed by a period of slower growth beyond 2020. Over the near term, industry's expansion will be boosted by the residential construction sector, while the ongoing transition to green energy economy as well as increased state investment in the transport sector will support expansion over the longer term.
Forecast and Latest Updates
Germany's construction industry's value will expand by an annual average of 1.5% during 2016-2020, before slowing down to 1.2% in 2020-2025.
Germany's federal cabinet approved the EUR269.6bn (USD299.3bn) 2030 Federal Transport Infrastructure Plan (BVWP 2030). The programme proposes investment in about 1,000 transport projects, with EUR132.8bn (USD147.42bn) earmarked for roads, EUR112.3bn (USD124.67bn) for rail and EUR24.5bn (USD27.2bn) for waterways up to 2030.
In mid-October 2016, Germany's federal network agency for electricity, gas, telecommunications, post and railway Bundesnetzagentur launched the sixth auction for ground-mounted solar parks. The auction is targeting a total capacity of 160MW.
In October 2016, a US-based package delivery and logistics company United Parcel Service (UPS) has started work on an USD80mn new package sorting and delivery centre in Bielefeld, North Rhine-Westphalia. The project is expected to be completed by October 2017.
|2015 e||2016 f||2017f||2018f||2019f||2020f||2021f||2022f||2023f||2024f||2025f|
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: Federal Office of Statistics, BMI|
|Construction industry value, EURbn||128.09||131.16||134.77||139.55||144.30||148.77||153.38||157.83||162.65||167.36||172.48|
|Construction Industry Value, Real Growth, % y-o-y||0.30||1.80||1.35||1.85||1.50||1.20||1.20||1.00||1.15||1.00||1.16|
|Construction Industry Value, % of GDP||4.2||4.3||4.3||4.3||4.3||4.3||4.3||4.3||4.3||4.3||4.2|
Germany remains in fourth position out of 17 regional markets in our latest RRI for North America and Western Europe.
Germany's infrastructure sector is mature and well developed, which effectively limits strong growth opportunities in the future. We note that energy, particularly renewables sector, will remain the most attractive proposition for investors.
Well established public procurement and transparent tendering processes, along with highly competitive landscape, ensures the country's strong performance in the Industry Risks section.
|Risk/Reward Index||Rewards||Industry Rewards||Country Rewards||Risks||Industry Risks||Country Risks|
The Germany Infrastructure Report features BMI Research's market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.
BMI's Germany Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the German infrastructure and construction industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Germany to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the German infrastructure market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the German infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Germany.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments. These are broken down into construction (social, commercial and residential), transport (roads, railways, ports, airports, etc), and energy & utilities (powerplants, pipelines and so on).
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (up to 2012) and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key developments in the market and risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); total capital investment (USDbn); real growth (%).
Construction industry real growth forecasts (%) and industry value (USDbn) forecasts for industry sectors are split into Residential and Non-residential and Infrastructure sectors. Where the data is available for particular countries the infrastructure is further broken down into indicators for the transport subsectors of roads, railways, airports and ports and the energy and utilities sub-sectors of power plants and transmission grids, oil & gas pipelines and water infrastructure. This dataset is unique to the market.
The reports also include analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sectors (transport, utilities, commercial construction).
BMI’s Infrastructure Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
An assessment of the competitive landscape and key challenges to entering the market. Details of the largest companies active in the sector across the sub-segments of the industry, including the key financial figures from some of the largest players in the sector.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Infrastructure reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.