BMI View: Despite a marginal increase in government funding for infrastructure and an increasingly buoyant outlook for the German economy, o ur view that insufficient capital is being deployed in the construction sector remains in place. We forecast a notable slowdown in the overall German construction industry from the 3. 7 % real growth in 2014, with our prediction of 1 . 95% for 2015. The residential sector, rail infrastructure and renewables projects remain the market's bright spots .
From 2015-2024, the construction industry will average annual real growth of 1.5%. Growth will remain positive unless the major downside risk to our forecasts, a souring of the outlook for the eurozone, materialises. The German economy has performed well over the last few quarters, allowing for the government to increase infrastructure funding. However, this has had little impact on our forecasts, given the marginal amount of extra financing being directed towards the sector, as the government maintains strict budgetary targets.
Key Trends And Developments
The 2015-2018 federal budget has been adopted by the coalition government, which will see spending on transport infrastructure reach EUR11.9bn. Furthermore, the government has approved financing for Deutsche Bahn's EUR28bn spending plan, which will run up to 2019, which will further the rail sector's outperformance. These financing commitments will constitute the bulk of German investment in the transport sector.
Low interest rates have made mortgages affordable and German real estate has been viewed as a safe haven for European investors. As such, there has been significant growth in house prices during 2014 and growth in the sector has been impressive. We expect this to continue in 2015, although growth will settle to a more sustainable level.
It is the renewables sector which will drive growth in the energy and utilities sector, and the industry should experience more sustainable growth as the government has...
The Germany Infrastructure Report features BMI Research's market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.
BMI's Germany Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the German infrastructure and construction industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Germany to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the German infrastructure market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the German infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Germany.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments. These are broken down into construction (social, commercial and residential), transport (roads, railways, ports, airports, etc), and energy & utilities (powerplants, pipelines and so on).
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (up to 2012) and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key developments in the market and risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); total capital investment (USDbn); real growth (%).
Construction industry real growth forecasts (%) and industry value (USDbn) forecasts for industry sectors are split into Residential and Non-residential and Infrastructure sectors. Where the data is available for particular countries the infrastructure is further broken down into indicators for the transport subsectors of roads, railways, airports and ports and the energy and utilities sub-sectors of power plants and transmission grids, oil & gas pipelines and water infrastructure. This dataset is unique to the market.
The reports also include analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sectors (transport, utilities, commercial construction).
BMI’s Infrastructure Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
An assessment of the competitive landscape and key challenges to entering the market. Details of the largest companies active in the sector across the sub-segments of the industry, including the key financial figures from some of the largest players in the sector.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Infrastructure reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.