Germany Metals Report

Published 24 December 2014

  • 58 pages
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$1,295.00
Germany Metals Report

Germany's metals sector will continue to feel the squeeze as output prices remain low and costs stay stubbornly high. We forecast subdued growth in consumption of key metals such as steel, copper and aluminium, chiefly due to a muted outlook for economic activity in the country. Key metal consuming sectors such as autos and construction will remain weak. For autos production, we do not foresee a return to growth until 2018 at the earliest.

Illustrative of challenges faced by the wider metals sector, steel mills will remain under significant pressure, as low output prices squeeze margins. This will encourage consolidation of operations and dampen output growth. We forecast that steel production will post only erratic growth in the coming years, as low prices will continue to bite.

Stagnation Ahead
Germany - Crude Steel Production

Three firms dominate steel production in Germany. ThyssenKrupp is Germany's largest steel maker and will be implementing significant job cuts in 2015. ArcelorMittal has a further 8.0mntpa (mn tonnes per annum) capacity at sites in Bremen, Duisburg, Eisenhüttenstadt and Hamburg. Due to its proximity to Poland, the Eisenhüttenstadt steelworks exports nearly half its output to Central and Eastern Europe. The other three ArcelorMittal facilities are reliant on Western European markets for their exports. Salzgitter AG is the third largest steelmaker with plants in Salzgitter and Peine in the middle of the country. Germany also hosts Europe's largest copper refiner, Aurubis AG.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Metals SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Steel: Only Modest Growth On The Horizon
11
Production To Remain Under Pressure
13
Table: Steel Production & Consumption (Germany 2010-2018)
14
Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (Germany 2005-2012)
14
Aluminium: Weak Prices To Restrain Production Growth
16
Table: Aluminium Production & Consumption (Germany 2010-2018)
19
Copper: Sector To Struggle
20
Table: Refined Copper Production, Consumption & Balance (Germany 2010-2018)
22
Lead: Holding Steady
23
Table: Germany - Lead Production & Consumption
25
Regulatory Development
26
Table: Political Overview
29
Commodities Forecast
31
Commodity Strategy
31
Ferrous Metals
31
Non-Ferrous Metals
33
Aluminium: Sustained Break Unlikely
33
Copper: Prices To Decline Further By 2015
34
Nickel: Increase From Current Lows, But No Return To H114 Highs
36
Zinc: Tighter Supplies To Be Offset By Subdued Demand
38
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
39
Commodities Forecast
41
Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast
41
Short-Term Outlook (three-to-six months)
41
Long-Term Outlook
42
Production Growth Set For Slowdown
43
Consumption Growth To Disappoint
44
Downside Risks To Price Outlook
45
Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
46
Competitive Landscape
47
Table: Germany - Largest Listed Metals Producers
47
Company Profile
49
ArcelorMittal
49
Company Overview
51
Company Strategy
51
Latest Financial Results
53
Company Details
53
Financial Data
53
Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data
53
ThyssenKrupp AG
54
Table: ThyssenKrupp - Key Financial Data
56
Methodology
58
Cross Checks
58

The Germany Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by BMI Research's macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Germany.

BMI's Germany Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in Germany.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent metals industry forecasts for Germany to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Germany metals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Germany through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company profiles on your competitors and peers.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

A comprehensive summary of the impact and implications of the latest regulatory developments and key forecast indicators covering metals production, consumption and upside/downside risks to our outlook. The Metals SWOT analysis outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Industry Forecast

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Steel: Steel production & consumption (‘000 tonnes).
  • Aluminium: Aluminium consumption production & balance (‘000 tonnes).
  • Copper: Refined copper production & consumption (‘000 tonnes).
  • Zinc: Refined zinc production & consumption (‘000 tonnes).
  • Lead: Refined Lead production, consumption & balance (‘000 tonnes).
  • Nickel: Refined nickel production & consumption (‘000 tonnes).
  • Tin: Refined tin production, consumption & balance (‘000 tonnes).

Regulatory Development

Details of the industry regulatory framework, relevant key legislation and environmental standards that impact the metals industry. The regulatory developments section provides analysis of the overall regulatory burden, the tax regime (including income tax rates), bureaucratic framework, corruption and a country specific political overview. Details of the industry regulatory framework provide information on relevant key legislation and regulations that will impact the metals industry.

Commodities Forecast

Provides in depth coverage and forecasting of steel prices and includes BMI’s core view of what to expect in upcoming months. Within the monthly metals update, BMI provides performance data and key forecasts for select commodities, including prices for aluminium, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, nickel, palladium, platinum, silver, steel (MEPS Carbon Steel), tin and zinc.

Competitive landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses of detailed financial data for key listed metals firms, ranked in order of market cap (USDmn).

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive position and short to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects. Details of products and services provide a full overview of each company’s operations.

Sources

The Metals Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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