Germany Oil & Gas Report

Published 19 March 2015

  • 120 pages
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$1,295.00
Germany Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Germany will remain the biggest consumer and importer of oil in Western Europe for the next 10 years. The country will also be the largest importer of natural gas. Demand for both oil and gas will remain weak as Germany continues its renewable energy drive .

Headline Forecasts (Germany 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: WEG, Statista, EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 78.8 77.1 74.9 73.4 71.8 69.9 68.0
Dry natural gas production, bcm 9.8 9.0 8.2 7.6 7.2 6.8 6.5
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 79.8 73.4 72.7 73.1 72.7 72.0 71.2
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 2,061.0 2,040.4 2,032.2 2,016.0 2,007.9 2,001.9 1,993.9
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 2,449.6 2,441.7 2,436.6 2,431.7 2,429.7 2,423.7 2,416.1

The main trends and developments in Germany's oil and gas sector are:

  • The German government is yet to provide clarity on hydraulic fracturing regulation. The country has fallen short of implementing an all out ban.

  • Industry continues to pressure the German government to provide a clearer framework for hydraulic fracturing to support production growth and technological innovation.

  • RWE has completed the sale of its upstream unit RWE Dea to Russian billionaire Mikhail Fridman. However, challenges are being made to the sale of RWE Dea's assets in the UK North Sea, where it may be forced to sell its UK holdings.

  • Germany remains a key negotiator in the natural gas trade deal between Russian and Ukraine. The 'winter package' expires at the end of March 2015, with a new deal required from April 1.

  • Gazprom has mothballed plans to expand the Nord Stream pipeline due to restricted access to the OPAL pipeline. The company continues its efforts to negotiate more capacity in the OPAL pipeline which connects...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Germany 2012-2018)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Germany 2012-2017)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Germany 2018-2023)
11
Upstream Production - Oil
14
Table: Oil Production (Germany 2012-2017)
14
Table: Oil Production (Germany 2018-2023)
14
Upstream Production - Gas
17
Table: Gas Production (Germany 2012-2017)
17
Table: Gas Production (Germany 2018-2023)
17
Refining
21
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Germany 2012-2017)
21
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Germany 2018-2023)
21
Refined Fuels Consumption
23
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Germany 2012-2017)
23
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Germany 2018-2023)
23
Gas Consumption
25
Table: Gas Consumption (Germany 2012-2017)
25
Table: Gas Consumption (Germany 2018-2023)
25
Table: Planned Gas-Fired Capacity Closures
27
Trade - Oil
28
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Germany 2012-2017)
28
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Germany 2018-2023)
28
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Germany 2012-2017)
29
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Germany 2018-2023)
30
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Germany 2012-2017)
31
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Germany 2018-2023)
32
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
33
Table: Gas Net Exports (Germany 2012-2017)
33
Table: Gas Net Exports (Germany 2018-2023)
34
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
36
North America And Western Europe - Risk/Reward Ratings
36
Table: North America & Western Europe States Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Upstream: US Nearly On Par With Canada
37
Table: Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Western Europe Languishes Without Shale Outlook
40
Downstream: US Comes Out Tops
42
Table: Oil & Gas Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
42
Germany Risk/Reward Ratings
45
Market Overview
47
Germany Energy Market Overview
47
Table: Gas Fired Power Plants At Risk Under Current Policy
49
Overview/State Role
50
Licensing/Regulation
50
Government Policy
50
International Energy Relations
51
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
51
Oil Refineries
51
Table: Germany Refineries
52
Service Stations
52
Oil Pipelines
53
Gas Pipelines
53
Gas Storage
55
LNG Terminals
56
Competitive Landscape
57
Competitive Landscape Summary
57
Table: Key Players - German Oil & Gas Sector
58
Company Profile
59
Royal Dutch Shell
59
BP
62
Total
65
ExxonMobil
67
PKN Orlen
70
OMV
73
Other Summaries
77
Regional Overview
81
Industry News
81
Global Industry Overview
90
Global Energy Market Overview
90
Appendix
96
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
96
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2012-2017
96
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2018-2023
97
Developed Europe - Regional Appendix
99
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
99
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
100
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
100
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
101
Table: Refinery Capacity - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
101
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
102
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
102
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
103
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
103
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
104
Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports) - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
104
Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports) - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
105
Germany - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
106
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Germany 2012-2017)
106
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Germany 2018-2023)
107
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Germany 2012-2017)
108
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Germany 2018-2023)
109
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Germany 2012-2017)
110
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Germany 2018-2023)
112
Germany - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
112
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Germany 2012-2017)
112
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Germany 2018-2023)
113
Glossary
114
Table: Glossary Of Terms
114
Methodology
116
Industry Forecast Methodology
116
Source
118
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
118
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
120
Table: Weighting
121

The Germany Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Germany including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Germany Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the German oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Germany to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the German oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the German oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Germany.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc