Germany Oil & Gas Report

Published 24 June 2015

  • 123 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Germany Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Germany will remain the biggest consumer and importer of oil and natural gas in Western Europe for the next 10 years. Demand for gasoline and diesel will fall as improving efficiencies in the transport fleet weaken consumption patterns.

Headline Forecasts (Germany 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: WEG, Statista, EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 79.9 78.3 76.1 74.6 73.0 71.0 69.1
Dry natural gas production, bcm 9.8 9.0 8.2 7.6 7.2 6.8 6.5
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 88.4 81.4 80.6 81.0 80.6 79.7 79.0
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 2,061.0 2,040.4 2,032.2 2,016.0 2,007.9 2,001.9 1,993.9
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 2,478.5 2,470.4 2,465.3 2,460.3 2,458.3 2,452.1 2,444.4

The main trends and developments in Germany's oil and gas sector are:

  • Weaker crude oil prices have improved margins for German refiners over H115. Investment into improving product quality and refining efficiency continues.

  • Lower oil prices have been offset by a weak euro, mitigating any refined fuels demand response from lower prices. We forecast a decline in gasoline and distillate fuel consumption over the next 10 years.

  • Reduced fuel consumption has also driven a slowdown in demand for biofuels. Germany once produced over 50% of the EU's biodiesel, though this has now fallen to around 30%.

  • Germany's cabinet approved a new draft law on April 1 2015, as expected imposing tough barriers for hydraulic fracturing for shale gas in the country. The law could permit fracking in special cases from 2019, but only after successful test drilling and the approval of a special committee.

  • Industry continues to pressure the German government to provide a clearer framework for hydraulic fracturing to support production growth...

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Germany 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Germany 2013-2018)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Germany 2019-2024)
11
Upstream Production - Oil
14
Table: Oil Production (Germany 2013-2018)
14
Table: Oil Production (Germany 2019-2024)
14
Upstream Production - Gas
18
Table: Gas Production (Germany 2013-2018)
18
Table: Gas Production (Germany 2019-2024)
18
Refining
21
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Germany 2013-2018)
21
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Germany 2019-2024)
22
Refined Fuels Consumption
24
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Germany 2013-2018)
24
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Germany 2019-2024)
24
Gas Consumption
26
Table: Gas Consumption (Germany 2013-2018)
27
Table: Gas Consumption (Germany 2019-2024)
27
Trade - Oil
29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Germany 2013-2018)
29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Germany 2019-2024)
29
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Germany 2013-2018)
31
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Germany 2019-2024)
31
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Germany 2013-2018)
32
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Germany 2019-2024)
33
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
33
Table: Gas Net Exports (Germany 2013-2018)
33
Table: Gas Net Exports (Germany 2019-2024)
34
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
36
North America And Western Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
36
Table: North America & Western Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
37
US More Resilient Than Canada To Oil Price Fall
37
Table: Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
38
Western Europe Languishes Without Shale Outlook
40
Downstream: US Comes Out Top
42
Table: Oil & Gas Downstream Risk/Reward Index
42
Germany Risk/Reward Index
45
Market Overview
47
Germany Energy Market Overview
47
Table: Gas Fired Power Plants At Risk Under Current Policy
48
Political Regime
48
Fiscal Regime
49
Table: Germany Corporate Income Tax
49
Table: Federal State Royalty Rates
49
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
50
Oil Refineries
50
Table: Germany Refineries
51
Service Stations
51
Oil Pipelines
51
Gas Pipelines
52
Gas Storage
54
LNG Terminals
55
Competitive Landscape
56
Competitive Landscape Summary
56
Table: Key Players - German Oil & Gas Sector
57
Company Profile
58
Royal Dutch Shell
58
BP
61
Total
64
ExxonMobil
66
PKN Orlen
69
OMV
72
Other Summaries
75
Regional Overview
80
North America And Western Europe Oil & Gas Regional Overview
80
Global Industry Overview
91
Oil Price Outlook
91
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus Forecasts* WTI And Brent, Front Month - USD/bbl
91
Table: 2015-2016 - Fundamental Pressure On Oil Prices
92
Appendix
99
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
99
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2013-2018
99
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2019-2024 ( Global 2019-2024)
100
Developed Europe - Regional Appendix
101
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
101
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
102
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
102
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
103
Table: Refinery Capacity - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
103
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
104
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
104
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
105
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
105
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
106
Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports) - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
106
Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports) - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
107
Germany - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
107
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Germany 2013-2018)
107
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Germany 2019-2024)
108
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Germany 2013-2018)
110
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Germany 2019-2024)
111
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Germany 2013-2018)
112
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Germany 2019-2024)
113
Germany - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
114
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Germany 2013-2018)
114
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Germany 2019-2024)
115
Glossary
116
Table: Glossary Of Terms
116
Methodology
118
Industry Forecast Methodology
118
Source
120
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
120
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
122
Table: Weighting
123

The Germany Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Germany including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Germany Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the German oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Germany to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the German oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the German oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Germany.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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