Germany Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Germany Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Domestic oil and gas production will continue to decline as weak oil prices hold back investment. The refining sector will perform better given weaker feedstock prices, though the long-term fuels consumption outlook sees limited growth potential. .

Headline Forecasts (Germany 2013-2019)
2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: WEG, Statista, JODI, EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 100.0 96.0 93.6 89.8 86.2 84.1 82.0
Dry natural gas production, bcm 9.8 9.2 8.0 7.4 6.9 6.6 6.2
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 88.4 81.4 80.6 81.0 80.6 79.7 79.0
Refined products production, 000b/d 2,061.0 2,114.3 2,174.4 2,130.9 2,122.2 2,115.8 2,107.1
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 2,478.5 2,577.4 2,578.0 2,575.2 2,570.4 2,563.8 2,555.5
Brent, USD/bbl 108.70 99.50 55.00 54.00 53.00 60.00 64.00

The main trends and developments in Germany's oil and gas sector are:

  • We have revised down our 2015 gas production forecast as steeper than expected decline rates have seen production underperform.

  • Both oil and gas production from Germany's North Sea assets will continue to decline sharply as production matures. New investment will be weak while oil prices remain low. Diesel consumption has marginally increased y-o-y in 2015.

  • Gasoline and jet fuel consumption has been weaker in 2015 than 2014.

  • Refined fuels consumption is forecast to be flat y-o-y.

  • Weaker crude oil prices have improved margins for German refiners over 2015, resulting in stronger diesel and jet fuel output.

  • Cheaper natural gas prices have moved spark-spreads into positive territory in late 2015, offering potential gas consumption upside from the power sector going into 2016.

  • Germany is importing more gas from Norway and Russia as exports from the Netherlands reduce following the production cap placed on the Groningen field.

  • Natural gas consumption in Germany continues to be put under pressure by cheap coal, rapidly growing renewable capacity and better energy efficiency.

  • In July 2015, Gazprom, E.ON, OMV, Shell and Wintershall signed an MoU to expand the Nord Stream project by 55bcm, though the European Commission and central European countries have opposed this.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Denmark 2013-2019)
7
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
7
SWOT
8
Oil & Gas SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
9
Upstream Exploration
9
Latest Updates
9
Structural Trends
9
Upstream Projects
13
Table: Denmark Major Upstream Projects
13
Upstream Production - Oil
14
Latest Updates
14
Structural Trends
14
Table: Oil Production (Denmark 2013-2018)
16
Table: Oil Production (Denmark 2019-2024)
16
Upstream Production - Gas
17
Latest Updates
17
Structural Trends
17
Table: Gas Production (Denmark 2013-2018)
18
Table: Gas Production (Denmark 2019-2024)
19
Refining
20
Latest Updates
20
Structural Trends
20
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Denmark 2013-2018)
22
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Denmark 2019-2024)
22
Refined Fuels Consumption
23
Latest Updates
23
Structural Trends
23
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Denmark 2013-2018)
24
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Denmark 2019-2024)
24
Gas Consumption
25
Latest Updates
25
Structural Trends
25
Table: Gas Consumption (Denmark 2013-2018)
26
Table: Gas Consumption (Denmark 2019-2024)
26
Trade - Oil
27
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts
27
Latest Updates
27
Structural Trends
27
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Denmark 2013-2019)
28
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Denmark 2019-2024)
29
Refined Fuels Forecast
29
Latest Updates
29
Structural Trends
29
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Denmark 2013-2018)
30
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Denmark 2019-2024)
31
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
32
Latest Updates
32
Structural Trends
32
Table: Gas Net Exports (Denmark 2013-2018)
34
Table: Gas Net Exports (Denmark 2019-2024)
35
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
36
North America And Western Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
36
Table: North America & Western Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index, out of 100
36
Upstream Rankings: North America To Maintain The Lead
37
North America: Canada Losing Its Edge
37
Western Europe Languishes In Maturing Assets
38
Table: North America & Western Europe Upstream Risk/Reward Index, out of 100
40
Downstream Rankings: US Widens Its Lead
40
Table: North America & Western Europe Downstream Risk/Reward Index, out of 100
42
Denmark - Risk/Reward Index
43
Denmark Upstream Score - Overview
43
Denmark Upstream Score - Rewards
43
Denmark Upstream Score - Risks
43
Denmark Downstream Score - Overview
43
Denmark Downstream Score - Rewards
44
Denmark Downstream Score - Risks
44
Market Overview
45
Denmark Energy Market Overview
45
Fiscal Regime
46
Table: Denmark- Upstream Tax Regime
46
Licensing Regime
46
Licensing Rounds
47
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
48
Oil Refineries
48
Table: Refineries In Denmark
48
Service Stations
49
Oil Storage Facilities
49
Oil Pipelines/Terminals
49
LNG Terminals
50
Gas Storage Facilities
50
Gas Pipelines
51
Competitive Landscape
52
Competitive Landscape Summary
52
Table: Key Players - Danish Oil And Gas Sector
53
Table: Key Upstream Players
53
Table: Key Downstream Players
54
Company Profile
55
DONG Energy
55
Royal Dutch Shell
62
Other Summaries
66
Regional Overview
73
North America And Western Europe Oil & Gas Regional Overview
73
Table: North America, Key Regional Indicators
84
Table: Western Europe, Key Regional Indicators
85
Glossary
87
Table: Glossary Of Terms
87
Methodology
89
Industry Forecast Methodology
89
Source
91
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
91
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
93
Table: Weighting
94

The Germany Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Germany including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Germany Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the German oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Germany to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the German oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the German oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Germany.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.