BMI View: Domestic oil and gas production will continue to decline as weak oil prices hold back investment. The refining sector will perform better given weaker feedstock prices, though the long-term fuels consumption outlook sees limited growth potential. .
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: WEG, Statista, JODI, EIA, BMI|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||100.0||96.0||93.6||89.8||86.2||84.1||82.0|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||9.8||9.2||8.0||7.4||6.9||6.6||6.2|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||88.4||81.4||80.6||81.0||80.6||79.7||79.0|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||2,061.0||2,114.3||2,174.4||2,130.9||2,122.2||2,115.8||2,107.1|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||2,478.5||2,577.4||2,578.0||2,575.2||2,570.4||2,563.8||2,555.5|
The main trends and developments in Germany's oil and gas sector are:
We have revised down our 2015 gas production forecast as steeper than expected decline rates have seen production underperform.
Both oil and gas production from Germany's North Sea assets will continue to decline sharply as production matures. New investment will be weak while oil prices remain low. Diesel consumption has marginally increased y-o-y in 2015.
Gasoline and jet fuel consumption has been weaker in 2015 than 2014.
Refined fuels consumption is forecast to be flat y-o-y.
Weaker crude oil prices have improved margins for German refiners over 2015, resulting in stronger diesel and jet fuel output.
Cheaper natural gas prices have moved spark-spreads into positive territory in late 2015, offering potential gas consumption upside from the power sector going into 2016.
Germany is importing more gas from Norway and Russia as exports from the Netherlands reduce following the production cap placed on the Groningen field.
Natural gas consumption in Germany continues to be put under pressure by cheap coal, rapidly growing renewable capacity and better energy efficiency.
In July 2015, Gazprom, E.ON, OMV, Shell and Wintershall signed an MoU to expand the Nord Stream project by 55bcm, though the European Commission and central European countries have opposed this.
The Germany Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Germany including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Germany Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the German oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Germany to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the German oil and gas market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the German oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Germany.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:
- Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
- Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
- Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.
BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook
Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.
The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.