Germany Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 02 June 2015

  • 116 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Germany Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: Germany, one of the largest single pharmaceutical markets in Europe and the wider OECD, will continue to exhibit high and rising underlying demand for branded pharmaceuticals generated by an ageing population with an increasing burden of chronic non-communicable conditions . However, drugmakers will experience continued deterioration in previously exceptional potential rewards as fierce price competition is intensified by additional restrictions on reimbursement and increasingly costly regulation. In addition , the German economy, driven by the European and global export of high value-added manufactured goods, will remain particularly vulnerable to unexpected external shocks; a notable source of long-term risk to multinationals. However, the pharmaceutical industry's contribution to Germany's positive balance of trade and global influence will sustain strong resistance to developments that might further reduce the country's future competitiveness as a global hub for the industry.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: from EUR39.95bn (USD53.53bn) in 2014 to EUR39.83bn (USD43.81bn) in 2015; -0.3% in local currency terms and -18.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised from Q215

  • Healthcare: from EUR317.55bn (USD425.52bn) in 2014 to EUR326.19bn (USD586.81bn) in 2015; +2.7% in local currency terms and -15.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards from Q215

Risk/Reward Index

In BMI's Q315 Western European Risk/Reward Index, Germany follows two consecutive quarters of decline with a further score of 69.2, down from a Q215 score of 72.4 out of 100. Weighed down by a deteriorating rewards score, Germany is ranked as the 4th most attractive pharmaceutical and healthcare market out of 15 in the region, relinquishing 3rd place to France. While an above average risks score is illustrative of the country's favourable operating environment, potential industry rewards are capped by increasingly burdensome reimbursement and pricing...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Operational Risk
13
Industry Forecast
14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
14
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2011-2019)
15
Healthcare Market Forecast
16
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2011-2019)
18
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2011-2019)
18
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2011-2019)
19
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
20
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2011-2019)
21
Table: Retail Pharmaceutical Expenditure, 2003-2010 (EURbn)
21
Table: Retail Pharmaceutical Expenditure, 2003-2010 (Packages, ms)
22
Table: Retail Pharmaceutical Expenditure, 2003-2010 (Average Price per Pack, EUR)
22
Patented Drug Market Forecast
23
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2011-2019)
25
Generic Drug Market Forecast
26
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2011-2019)
28
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
29
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2011-2019)
31
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
32
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Germany 2013-2019)
33
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Germany 2013-2019)
34
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
35
Macroeconomic Forecasts
36
Economic Analysis
36
GDP By Expenditure
39
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Germany 2012-2019)
41
Industry Risk Reward Index
43
Western Europe Risk/Reward Index
43
Germany Risk/Reward Index
47
Rewards
47
Risks
48
Market Overview
49
Industry Trends And Developments
50
Epidemiology
50
Healthcare Sector
51
Health Insurance
52
Healthcare Sector Reforms
52
Table: Healthcare Resources (Germany 2009-2014)
54
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Germany 2009-2014)
54
Table: Healthcare Activity (Germany 2009-2014)
55
Research & Development
55
Biotechnology Sector
59
Clinical Trials
60
Regulatory Development
62
Intellectual Property Regime
63
Pricing Regime
65
Table: Price Build-Up In The German Pharmaceutical Market
66
Reimbursement Regime
68
Parallel Imports
71
Competitive Landscape
73
Wholesale Sector
75
Retail Sector
75
Company Profile
76
Pfizer
76
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)
79
Bayer Health Care
81
Sanofi
85
Merck KGaA
88
Merck & Co
92
Boehringer Ingelheim
94
Gr-nenthal
98
STADA Arzneimittel
100
Demographic Forecast
104
Demographic Outlook
104
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Germany 1990-2025)
105
Table: Key Population Ratios (Germany 1990-2025)
105
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Germany 1990-2025)
106
Table: Population By Age Group (Germany 1990-2025)
106
Table: Population By Age Group % (Germany 1990-2025)
107
Glossary
109
Methodology
111
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
111
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
111
Notes On Methodology
112
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
113
Index Overview
114
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
114
Indicator Weightings
115

The Germany Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Germany Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Germany pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Germany, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the German pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the German pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Germany.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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