Germany Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 17 August 2015

  • 120 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Germany Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: As the German economy observes signs of a tentative long-term rebalancing in which private consumption will play a more significant role in economic growth, recent improvements in high frequency indicators have lead us to an upward revision of the pharmaceutical market growth forecast for 2015. However, the pharmaceutical market growth potential will continue to suffer significant downward pressure due to a challenging reimbursement and pricing environment, setting a pattern of marginal market expansion over the next few years.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: EUR44.31bn (USD59.38bn) in 2014 to EUR44.49bn (USD48.94bn) in 2015; 0.4% in local currency terms and -17.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards from last quarter.

  • Healthcare: EUR317.55bn (USD425.51bn) in 2014 to EUR326.18bn (USD358.80bn) in 2015; +2.7% in local currency terms and -15.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly in line with last quarter.

Risk/Reward Index

In Q415 Germany retains a RRI score of 69.2 out of 100 after a downward revision in H115. Germany remains ranked as the fourth most attractive market to pharmaceutical investors out of 15 markets in the Western Europe region in our RRI matrix. While high market expenditure indices and risks scores are illustrative of the country's relative attractiveness and favourable operating environment, potential industry rewards are capped by increasingly burdensome reimbursement and pricing regulation.

Key Trends and Developments

July 2015

  • Ireland-based generic drugmaker Perrigo signed an agreement to purchase Germany-based Naturwohl Pharma, along with its dietary supplement brand, Yokebe. The second-largest dietary brand in Germany in terms of market share, Yokebe comes in a shake/liquid form and is distributed within the 'meal replacement' category. The brand is estimated to generate net sales of about EUR30mn (USD32.9mn) in 2015.

June 2015

  • Boehringer Ingelheim invested EUR72mn (USD81mn) at its...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Operational Risk
13
Industry Forecast
14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
14
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2011-2019)
15
Healthcare Market Forecast
16
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2011-2019)
18
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2011-2019)
18
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2011-2019)
19
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
20
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2011-2019)
21
Table: Retail Pharmaceutical Expenditure, 2003-2010 (EURbn)
21
Table: Retail Pharmaceutical Expenditure, 2003-2010 (Packages, ms)
22
Table: Retail Pharmaceutical Expenditure, 2003-2010 (Average Price per Pack, EUR)
22
Patented Drug Market Forecast
23
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2011-2019)
25
Generic Drug Market Forecast
26
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2011-2019)
28
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
29
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2011-2019)
31
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
32
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Germany 2013-2019)
33
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Germany 2013-2019)
34
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
35
Macroeconomic Forecasts
36
Economic Analysis
36
GDP By Expenditure
39
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Germany 2012-2019)
41
Industry Risk Reward Index
43
Western Europe Risk/Reward Index
43
Germany Risk/Reward Index
47
Rewards
47
Risks
48
Market Overview
49
Industry Trends And Developments
50
Epidemiology
50
Healthcare Sector
51
Health Insurance
52
Healthcare Sector Reforms
52
Table: Healthcare Resources (Germany 2009-2014)
54
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Germany 2009-2014)
54
Table: Healthcare Activity (Germany 2009-2014)
55
Research & Development
55
Biotechnology Sector
59
Clinical Trials
60
Regulatory Development
62
Intellectual Property Regime
63
Pricing Regime
65
Table: Price Build-Up In The German Pharmaceutical Market
66
Reimbursement Regime
68
Parallel Imports
71
Competitive Landscape
73
Wholesale Sector
75
Retail Sector
75
Company Profile
76
Pfizer
76
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)
79
Bayer Health Care
81
Sanofi
85
Merck KGaA
88
Merck & Co
92
Boehringer Ingelheim
94
Gr-nenthal
98
STADA Arzneimittel
100
Demographic Forecast
104
Demographic Outlook
104
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Germany 1990-2025)
105
Table: Key Population Ratios (Germany 1990-2025)
105
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Germany 1990-2025)
106
Table: Population By Age Group (Germany 1990-2025)
106
Table: Population By Age Group % (Germany 1990-2025)
107
Glossary
109
Methodology
111
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
111
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
111
Notes On Methodology
112
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
113
Index Overview
114
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
114
Indicator Weightings
115

The Germany Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Germany Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Germany pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Germany, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the German pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the German pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Germany.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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