BMI View: One of the largest markets in Europe, Germany will continue to experience rising demand for pharmaceuticals, sustained by an ageing population with a strong bias towards patented medicines. In spite of this , additional restrictions on reimbursement, tempered by government's desire to preserve an industry integral to Germany's positive balance of trade and international prestige, will nonetheless constrain revenues and intensify already fierce competition amongst drugmakers. As such, drugmakers will perceive a positive, but deteriorating German operating environment, marked by intensifying price competition, increasingly burdensome regulation and an economic environment particularly susceptible to sudden external shocks.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: from EUR39.95bn (USD53.53bn) in 2014 to EU39.83bn (USD49.79bn) in 2015; -0.3% in local currency terms and -7.0% in US dollar terms. Downwards from Q115
Healthcare: from EUR310.11bn (USD415.54) in 2014 to EUR317.41bn (USD396.76bn) in 2015; +2.4% in local currency terms and -4.5% in US dollar terms . Upwards in local currency from Q115
Risk/Reward Index: In BMI's Q215 Western European Risk/Reward Index (RRI), Germany continues to lose ground to other regional markets with a score of 72.4 out of 100, down from 72.9 in Q115. Weighed down by a reduced country rewards score, Germany is ranked as the 3 rd most attractive market for drugmakers out of 15 in the region, relinquishing 2 nd place to Switzerland. Germany remains one of the largest and most attractive pharmaceutical markets in the Western European region, with strong industry rewards and a markedly above average risks score, illustrative of the country's favourable operating environment. However, potential rewards are capped by increasingly burdensome reimbursement and pricing regulation and a shrinking base of contributors to the public and private funding of healthcare.
Key Trends and Developments
The Germany Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Germany Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Germany pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Germany, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the German pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the German pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Germany.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.