BMI View: Despite the challenging drug reimbursement environment, Germany's large and growing pharmaceutical market will remain among the most attractive worldwide to pharmaceutical investors over the coming years. Key growth drivers such as an ageing population and rising consumption will ensure that prescription drugs , particular ly those sold through pharmacy channels, continue to account for the largest market share.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: EUR54.39bn (USD60.32bn) in 2015 to EUR54.96bn (USD58.80bn) in 2016; +1.0% in local currency terms and -2.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards from last quarter due to new historical data .
Healthcare: EUR339.56bn (USD376.59bn) in 2015 to EUR350.24bn (USD374.76bn) in 2016; +3.1% in local currency terms and -0.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards from last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: National sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||68.858||60.322||58.802||58.329||57.301||56.855||57.602|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.78||1.80||1.78||1.75||1.71||1.68||1.65|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||15.8||16.0||15.7||15.4||15.0||14.7||14.4|
|Health spending, USDbn||437.002||376.593||374.761||379.573||381.008||386.290||399.946|
In Q117 Germany's Risk/Reward Index (RRI) score remains unchanged at 76.6 out of a maximum of 100. Germany is currently ranked as the most attractive market to pharmaceutical investors in Western Europe, followed by Austria (75.0) and Switzerland (73.1). Germany's score is boosted by high expenditure indices but dragged down by burdensome pricing and reimbursement regulation.
In November 2016, Astellas Pharma agreed to acquire Ganymed Pharmaceuticals, a biopharmaceutical company located in Mainz, Germany, that focuses on the development of antibodies against cancer.
In October 2016, the European Court of Justice (ECJ) ruled contrary to Germany's existing pharmacy price fixing for prescription drugs, alleging that uniform prices in the sector restrict the free movement of goods. While the case background suggests that the free movement of goods could benefit access to medicines and shipping pharmacies, German pharmacy associations are contesting the measure as incongruent with ECJ jurisdiction.
As of information reported in October 2016, private health insurance contributions by the nine million insured people will likely see an increase in the coming years, as the 37 private health insurance companies operating in Germany have reported financial constraints caused by low interest rates and the reduction in gains in the capital markets.
Also in October, GlaxoSmithKline announced it was to invest EUR172mn (USD188mn) to expand vaccine capacity at its Marburg factory in Germany, with EUR162mn going to increase production of its Bexsero meningitis B vaccine.
As of information reported in September 2016, Merck KGaA is to invest more than EUR50mn (USD56mn) in the development of a state-of-the-art packaging building at its pharmaceutical manufacturing site in Darmstadt, Germany.
BMI Economic View
We are relatively optimistic on the German economy in 2017-2018, as reflected by our above-consensus real GDP growth projections. But the rebalancing of the German economy towards greater levels of domestic consumption and investment, which began looking like it was finally beginning to accelerate in 2015, has stalled.
BMI Political View
A strong result for the right-wing Alternative for Germany in Berlin's state election will ensure the migrant crisis remains a major political divider in the coming months ahead of the autumn 2017 federal election. Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats will continue to bear the brunt of public concern over mass immigration, which could damage her party's electoral chances at a national level.
The Germany Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Germany Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Germany pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Germany, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the German pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the German pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Germany.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.