BMI View: Germany ' s pharmaceutical and healthcare markets will continue to expand over the next ten years, translating in to renewed commercial opportunities for drugmakers operating in the country. While patented medicines will continue to account for the largest share of the pharmaceutical market, generic medicines will outpace the overall market growth rate, gaining market share. In fact, we expect to see government cost control measures and market structure to support the gradual commoditisation of the generi c drug market, which will put downward pressure on prices, despite growing volumes.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: EUR46.50bn (USD51.15bn) in 2015 to EUR47.10bn (USD50.40bn) in 2016; +1.3% in local currency terms and -1.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast in line with last quarter.
Healthcare: EUR339.30bn (USD373.23bn) in 2015 to EUR349.82bn (USD374.30bn) in 2016; +3.1% in local currency terms and +0.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards from last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||59.380||51.150||50.400||52.500||55.640||58.890||59.800|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.52||1.56||1.54||1.51||1.49||1.47||1.44|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||13.5||13.7||13.5||13.2||13.0||12.8||12.6|
|Health spending, USDbn||441.370||373.230||374.300||396.830||428.110||461.130||476.700|
In Q316 we have revised upwards Germany's Risk/Reward Index (RRI) score to 76.6 from 72.2 in the last quarter (out of a maximum 100 points). The score revision was driven by improvements in industry rewards indices. Germany is currently ranked as the most attractive market to pharmaceutical investors in Western Europe, followed closely by the UK (76.5) and Austria (73.8). Germany's score is boosted by high expenditure indices but dragged down by burdensome pricing and reimbursement regulation.
In April 2016, Germany's Ministry of Health officials stated that new price control measures targeting rising costs of innovative drugs may be introduced in the next few quarters, suggesting in particular that the first-year window that currently allows drugmakers to charge the full price for their innovative products during the first year of marketing authorisation may be capped by requiring insurers to start negotiating discounts once a drug surpassed sales of about EUR250mn (USD287mn), reports The Wall Street Journal.
Also in April, CRO Evotec secured a five-year compound management agreement with Pierre Fabre Laboratories, which will operate as a drug discovery solution based on data-driven resources focused on oncology, dermatology and CNS. Research models will continue to move towards closer collaborative relationships, catalyzing shifts within the CRO industry, with innovation, rather than size, becoming increasingly key.
As of March 2016, Evotec formed a spin-off company in the field of nanoparticle-based therapeutics to treat immunological disorders, which reflects Evotec's confidence in its drug discovery and development abilities.
In the same month, Merck KGaA entered into a research collaboration focused on cancer metabolism with the European Molecular Biology Laboratory (EMBL), located in Heidelberg, Germany, which is well-aligned with Merck's R&D strategy in biopharma to complement its capabilities in early-stage oncology research.
In February 2016, Apogenix received funding approval in the amount of EUR3mn (USD3.34mn) from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research for the CancerMark project, which will support the further development of lead immuno-oncology candidate APG101 as a personalised therapy for the treatment of glioblastoma.
BMI Economic View
Germany's economy will remain in solid shape in 2016 and 2017, as the economy rebalances towards domestic demand. Extra fiscal spending on migrants will also add a further tailwind to growth in the coming years.
BMI Political View
German Chancellor Angela Merkel will face further pressure from the electorate over her handling of migrant crisis and the country's relationship with Turkey. Despite this, a healthy economic backdrop and the structure of the country's party system mean she will remain Chancellor if she decides to run for another term in 2017.
The Germany Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Germany Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Germany pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Germany, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the German pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the German pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Germany.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.