Germany Telecommunications Report

Published 20 August 2015

  • 65 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Germany Telecommunications Report

BMI View : Following consolidation, we believe the market will further split between the main three operators. These will look at convergence and advanced services (LTE, fibre, etc) and the remaining no-frills segment, led by MVNOs and resellers, to drive revenue growth. The strength of the latter will continue to have a negative impact on ARPU, with one of the lowest figures in Western Europe. The saturated market makes convergence and bundling core strategies to survive, and to invest into advanced services, and we would expect consolidation to occur in the fixed broadband market, as a better to compete with stronger fully convergent fixed-mobile players. This will further increase the tension between the two trends of the market, as consolidation will lead operators to focus on premium services to recover their investments.

Key Data

  • Mobile subscriptions dropped by almost 5mn following consolidation, and we do not expect them to recover their losses, as operators focus on the more premium segment of the mobile market, through LTE and smartphones.

  • ARPU remains very low in Germany despite the premium strategy, with figures between EUR10 and EUR15 for the three main operators.

  • The fixed market will develop though convergence, led by Deutsche Telekom's move to IP services, VDSL and fibre, IPTV and quad-play bundles.

Gradual Moves Towards Advanced Data Services
LTE Subsribers (LHS, '000) And Smartphone Penetration (RHS< %), 2014-2015
*= as of postpaid base only. Source: BMI, operators

Regional Perspective

Germany's ranking has not changed in BMI's Q415 Risk Reward Index, with the country remaining fourth with a score of 61.4, above the regional average of 57.3. Germany ranks below average in terms of industry risks, with the regulator not specifically focusing on telecoms but also on energy, and in country rewards, and demography being an issue. These setbacks are however limited compared to the overall strength of the country.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Mobile SWOT
8
Wireline SWOT
10
Political
12
Economic
13
Operational Risk
14
Industry Forecast
15
Mobile
15
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Germany 2012-2019)
15
ARPUs
17
Fixed-Line
20
Table: Telecoms Sector - Wireline - Historical Data & Forecasts (Germany 2013-2019)
20
Industry Risk/Reward Index
23
Industry Risk Reward Index
23
Table: Western Europe Telecoms Risk/Rewards Index, Q315
26
Market Overview
27
Mobile
27
Regional Perspective
27
Table: Mobile Market Regional Comparisons, 2013
28
Key Developments
28
Market Growth
28
Market Share And Net Additions
30
Table: Net Additions By Operator ('000)
32
Subscription Mix
33
Usage
34
MVNOs
36
Networks
40
O2/E-Plus Merger And Support For New Players
43
Table: Percentage Of Revenues From Non-Voice Services (%)
45
Table: Mobile Market Overview
51
Table: T-Mobile
52
Table: Vodafone
54
Table: E-Plus
56
Table: O2
58
Mobile Content
61
Monetising Footfall
62
Interoperable M-Commerce A Stronger Proposition
63
Positioning Key To M2M Success
65
Regaining Control Of The Bill
68
Fixed Line
70
Recent Developments
70
Fixed-Line Telephony
71
Operator Performance
72
Table: Fixed-Line Subscriptions By Operator ('000)
73
Table: Voice Telephony Accesses And Other Licensed Operators' Shares, 2011-2013
75
Fixed Broadband
76
Pay-TV/Convergence
80
Table: TV Households By Platform (mn)
81
Table: HD TV Households (mn)
81
Converged Service Operator Data
83
Table: Deutsche Telekom
83
Table: Kabel Deutschland
85
Table: UPC Unitymedia
86
Table: Telefonica Deutschland
87
Table: Sky Deutschland
88
Table: Tele2 Deutschland
89
Table: 1&1/United Internet
89
Industry Trends And Developments
90
Table: Trends And Developments
90
Regulatory Development
93
Regulatory Overview
93
Table: Germany Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
93
Regulatory Developments
95
Competitive Landscape
97
Table: Key Players - Germany Telecoms Sector
97
Table: Selected Operators' Financial Indicators, 2008-2013 (USDmn)
98
Company Profile
99
Deutsche Telekom
99
Vodafone Germany
103
Telef-nica Deutschland
106
Regional Overview
110
Demographic Forecast
114
Demographic Outlook
114
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Germany 1990-2025)
115
Table: Key Population Ratios (Germany 1990-2025)
115
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Germany 1990-2025)
116
Table: Population By Age Group (Germany 1990-2025)
116
Table: Population By Age Group % (Germany 1990-2025)
117
Glossary
119
Table: Glossary Of Terms
119
Methodology
121
Industry Forecast Methodology
121
Sources
123
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
123
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators
124
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
125

The Germany Telecommunications Report features BMI Research's independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Germany's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's Germany Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Germany.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Germany to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the German telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Germany's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Germany.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
  • Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
    Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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