Ghana Agribusiness Report

Published 23 January 2015

  • 100 pages
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$1,295.00
Ghana Agribusiness Report
Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (2011-2019)

BMI View: We believe that the Ghanaian cocoa sector will post reasonably strong growth over our forecast period to 2018/19. High cocoa prices will encourage production, while the government has pledged schemes in order to encourage yield growth. Stabilisation of the cedi and the announcement of a higher support price will also aid the sector. The launch of a new government project to revitalise the poultry sector suggests that the challenges facing the segment as it struggles to compete with imports are being taken seriously and, although firm proposals are thin on the ground, we remain optimistic about the industry's future. One of the main constraints on growth will be high feed prices, giving added urgency to programs aimed at increasing corn yields. We expect production levels to climb very gradually in the grains segment , and concerns exist in the near future regarding food price inflation.

Key BMI Forecasts

  • Cocoa production growth 2013/14 to 2018/19: 13.3% to 1.04mn tonnes. While much of this growth will be due to base effects, the government has committed to supplying free inputs and improving infrastructure, while Cocobod has reformed its cocoa payment price.

  • Corn production growth to 2018/19: 1.9% to 1.9mn tonnes. Ghanaian corn yields remain low in relative terms, with production still dominated by smallholders making limited use of fertilisers, mechanisation, improved seeds and post-harvest facilities. We do not expect outstanding growth over our forecast period.

  • 2015 real GDP growth: 6.4% (up from an estimated 4.7% in 2014).

  • 2015 consumer price inflation (ave): 14.6 % (down from 15.7% in 2014).

  • BMI Universe Agribusiness Market Value to grow by 0.3% to USD12.3bn in 2015. Expected to grow by an average of 4.7% per year to USD13.8bn from 2013/14 to 2018/19.

Industry Developments

We estimate Ghanaian corn production to have come in at 1.80mn tonnes for...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Agribusiness
10
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
14
Livestock Outlook
14
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Ghana 2013-2018)
15
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Ghana 2013-2018)
15
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Ghana 2013-2018)
16
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Ghana 2008-2013)
20
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Ghana 2008-2013)
20
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Ghana 2008-2013)
20
Grains Outlook
22
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Ghana 2013-2018)
23
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Ghana 2008-2013)
25
Cocoa Outlook
27
Table: Cocoa Production & Consumption (Ghana 2013-2018)
28
Table: Cocoa Production & Consumption (Ghana 2008-2013)
33
Commodity Price Analysis
35
Monthly Softs Strategy
35
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
42
Monthly Grains Strategy
43
Table: Selected Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
50
Uptream Analysis
51
Africa GM Outlook
51
Table: Farm Size By Region
54
Africa Machinery Outlook
57
Table: Number Of Tractors Per 1,000ha Of Arable Land
57
Table: Farm Size By Region (2012)
61
Table: South Africa - New Tractor Sales Current Market Share In 2014 (%)
62
Africa Fertiliser Outlook
63
Downstream Analysis
70
Food
70
Food Consumption
70
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Ghana 2011-2018)
71
Fish
71
Drink
72
Alcoholic Drinks
72
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Ghana 2013-2018)
73
Soft Drinks
73
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade (Ghana 2013-2018)
74
Mass Grocery Retail
75
Regional Overview
76
Demographic Forecast
83
Table: Ghana's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
84
Table: Ghana's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
85
Table: Ghana's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
86
Table: Ghana's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
86
Methodology
87
Industry Forecast Methodology
87
Sector-Specific Methodology
88

The Ghana Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Ghana Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc