BMI View: We believe that the Ghanaian cocoa sector will post reasonably strong growth over our forecast period to 201 9 / 20 . High cocoa prices will encourage production, while the government has pledged schemes in order to encourage yield growth. However, a significant portion of the growth will be due to base effects. We also see long-term opportunities (but also significant structural challenges) in the Ghanaian palm oil sector.
Key BMI Forecasts
Cocoa production growth 2014/15 to 2019/20: 23.4 % to 913,000 tonnes. While much of this growth will be due to base effects, the government has committed to supplying free inputs and improving infrastructure, while Cocobod has reformed its cocoa payment price.
2016 real GDP growth: 4.5 % (up from an estimated 3.4% in 2015).
2016 consumer price inflation (ave): 16.9 % (down from an estimated 17.1% in 2015).
|Agribusiness Market Value|
|BMI Market Value By Commodity (2012-2020)|
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: FAO, BMI|
Latest Updates & Structural Trends
Cocoa production in Ghana will improve over the coming years, as the set price given to farmers by Cocobod will increase, allowing them to spend more on inputs. However, the sector suffers from key structural issues, such as labour shortages and fragmentation, which will prevent the country from overtaking Cote d'Ivoire as the world's largest cocoa producer and exporter.
Although we forecast global cocoa prices to trade lower from 2016 to 2018, we do not believe that this will weigh on Ghanaian output for two reasons. First, our Country Risk team forecasts the Ghanaian cedi to weaken by about 7% over the next three years after weakening by about 23% in 2015. This extended currency weakness will improve the financial situation of Cocobod and potentially trickle down into higher farmgate prices. At the very least, it should enable the government agency to maintain its set farmgate price at the 2016 level, which Cocobod raised by 22.0% y-o-y in order to prevent smuggling to Cote d'Ivoire. Second, although a weaker cedi will translate into more expensive fertiliser imports over the coming years, this will not have a substantial impact on Ghanaian cocoa yields. This is because fertiliser usage is already quite low as a result of poor subsidies management.
Ghana's palm oil production will grow steadily over the next five years, but mainly due to low base effects as the African palm oil sector is constrained by low productivity and elevated costs. Structural weaknesses and relatively low international palm oil prices will force foreign investors to reconsider their expansion plans in Africa. Consequently, Ghana will remain a net importer of palm oil over the coming years.
The Ghana Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.
BMI's Ghana Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.
BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts
Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.
- Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
- Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
- Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
- BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.
BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis
Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.
Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.
Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.
The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.
Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market
Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean
Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.
The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.