Ghana Agribusiness Report

Published 16 July 2015

  • 79 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Ghana Agribusiness Report

BMI View: We believe that the Ghanaian cocoa sector will post reasonably strong growth over our forecast period to 2018/19. High cocoa prices will encourage production, while the government has pledged schemes in order to encourage yield growth. The launch of a new government project to revitalise the poultry sector suggests that the challenges facing the segment as it struggles to compete with imports are being taken seriously and, although firm proposals are thin on the ground, we remain optimistic about the industry's future. One of the main constraints on growth will be high feed prices, giving added urgency to programs aimed at increasing corn yields. We expect production levels to climb only gradually in the grains segment and concerns exist in the near future regarding food price inflation.

Key BMI Forecasts

  • Cocoa production growth 2013/14 to 2018/19: 13.2% to 1.04mn tonnes. While much of this growth will be due to base effects, the government has committed to supplying free inputs and improving infrastructure, while Cocobod has reformed its cocoa payment price.

  • 2015 real GDP growth: 3 .8% (down from an estimated 4.0% in 2014).

  • 2015 cons umer price inflation (ave): 16.0 % (up from 15.5% in 2014).

Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (2011-2019)
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: FAO, BMI

Industry Developments

We have revised our 2014/15 Ghanaian cocoa production forecast to 820,000 tonnes, down from 850,000 tonnes. Since the start of the 2014/15 West African cocoa season, we have been below consensus regarding Ghanaian production, forecasting an 8% decline on the expectation of less favourable weather conditions for the region as whole and reduced input usage in Ghana especially. This underpinned our view that, once official forecasts were revised lower, the global cocoa market would return to deficit in 2014/15, ensuring prices would average higher year-on-year. This view is now playing out, as local forecasters...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Agribusiness
9
Operational Risk
11
Industry Forecast
13
Cocoa Outlook
13
Table: Cocoa Production & Consumption (Ghana 2013-2019)
14
Table: Cocoa Production & Consumption (Ghana 2009-2014)
17
Featured Analysis
19
African Agriculture: Lower Growth Over Coming Years
19
Table: African Union CAADP Objectives To 2025
20
Table: Indonesia - Select Inward Cocoa Investment Projects
25
Table: Most Popular Brands Are Foreign - New Tractor Sales Current Market Share In South Africa In 2014 (%)
28
Commodity Price Analysis
31
Monthly Softs Strategy
31
Table: India - Monsoon Rainfall, Irrigation And Production In The Main Agricultural States
35
Monthly Grains Strategy
36
Table: Grain Prices With Select Metrics (USc/bushel)
37
Uptream Analysis
39
Africa GM Outlook
39
Table: Farm Size By Region
42
Africa Machinery Outlook
45
Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions
45
Table: Farm Size By Region (2012)
50
Table: South Africa - New Tractor Sales Current Market Share In 2014 (%)
50
Africa Fertiliser Outlook
52
Downstream Analysis
58
Food
58
Food Consumption
58
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Ghana 2012-2019)
59
Fish
59
Mass Grocery Retail
60
Drink
61
Alcoholic Drinks
61
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Ghana 2014-2019)
62
Soft Drinks
62
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade (Ghana 2014-2019)
63
Regional Overview
65
Middle East & Africa Regional Overview
65
Table: Foreign Investment In Africa's Palm Oil Sector
68
Demographic Forecast
72
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Ghana 1990-2025)
73
Table: Key Population Ratios (Ghana 1990-2025)
73
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Ghana 1990-2025)
74
Table: Population By Age Group (Ghana 1990-2025)
74
Table: Population By Age Group % (Ghana 1990-2025)
75
Methodology
77
Industry Forecast Methodology
77
Sector-Specific Methodology
78

The Ghana Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Ghana Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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