Ghana Country Risk Report

Published 27 May 2015 | Quarterly

  • 38 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,195.00
Ghana Country Risk Report

Core Views:

  • Economic growth in Ghana will be buoyant over 2015-2018 thanks to rising oil production and strong investment inflows - the latter encouraged by IMF policy oversight.

  • Foreign investment inflows will be robust thanks to Ghana's abundant natural resources and relative political stability.

  • The current account deficit and fiscal deficit will remain key structural weaknesses in the economy.

  • Peaceful protests against power shortages and economic hardship will take place in 2015. Ghanaians are wary of the conditions that may be attached to IMF support.

Major Forecast Changes:

We maintain our view that Ghana's real GDP growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, rising to 4.5% and 6.7% respectively, following a 4.3% expansion in 2014. However, this is a downwards revision since our last quarterly update; we previously forecasted a much more robust recovery to the tune of 5.8% in 2015, and 8.0% in 2016. Although we still believe that the worst is past in terms of the macroeconomic meltdown that the country underwent last year - the conclusion of a deal with the IMF has offered some reassurance to investors and improved confidence - there remain significant challenges to growth. Not least of these is ongoing disruption to power supply - the exacerbation of which is the primary reason behind our growth downgrade - and a ruling that new offshore oil drilling must be put on hold.

Key Risks To Outlook:

  • If the government fails to abide by the IMF's conditionality following the deal finalised in early 2015, investor sentiment will sour severely.

  • The Ghanaian cedi remains vulnerable amid the sizeable current account deficit and could depreciate more swiftly than we anticipate.

  • Mismanagement of oil revenues - perhaps stemming from insufficient institutional capacity - could dent investor perceptions.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Ghana 2013-2016)
Indicator 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source:...
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks To Outlook
5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Political Risk Index
7
Domestic Politics
8
2016 Re-Election Will Be An Uphill Struggle For President Mahama
8
Table: Political Overview
8
Long-Term Political Outlook
9
Oil: A Critical Test For The Polity
9
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
13
SWOT Analysis
13
BMI Economic Risk Index
13
Economic Activity
14
Power Disruptions A Major Impediment To Growth
14
TABLE: Economic Activity
14
Fiscal Policy
16
Fiscal Consolidation Will Slip In 2016
16
TABLE: Fiscal Polic y
16
Monetary Policy
18
Rate Cutting Will Begin In Mid-Year
18
TABLE: Monetary Polic y
18
Banking Sector
19
Banks To Feel Effects Of Adverse Macro Environment
19
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
21
The Ghanaian Economy To 2024
21
Oil To Boost Growth Over The Long Term
21
TABLE: Long-Term Macr oec onomic Forecasts
21
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
23
SWOT Analysis
23
Operational Risk Index
23
Operational Risk
24
TABLE: Operational Risk
24
Legal Environment
25
TABLE: Sub-Saharan Africa - Legal Risk
26
Costs Of Labour
29
TABLE: Sub-Saharan Africa Labour Costs Risk
30
TABLE: Regulations Governing Flexibility of Workforce
31
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
33
Global Outlook
33
EMs Still Slowing
33
Table : Global Assumptions
33
Table: Developed States, Real GDP Growth, %
34
Table : BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
34
Table : Emerging Markets , Real GDP Growth , %
35

The Ghana Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Ghana. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Ghana's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, BMI Research.

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Ghana's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • Contextualise Ghana's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Ghana, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Ghana Country Risk Report by BMI Research includes three major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook and Operational Risk.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Ghana' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Ghana through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Ghana Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector obligations).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2019 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Ghana and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Ghana, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Ghana over the next 5-years?

BMI's Ghana country Risk Index evaluates the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Ghana Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Ghana.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Index assesses explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest positioning and trends for Ghana's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.
  • Long-Term Political Outlook BMI examines the structural risks to the stability of Ghana’s political system and the dominant public policy issues likely to affect decision-makers, and outlines scenarios for how the state could evolve in the medium to long term.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark Ghana's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

Operational Risk

What are the current operational risks and difficulties associated with doing business in Ghana?

The Operational Risk section gives an evaluation of current risks and difficulties associated with operating in the market. It also provides a brief overview of the regional Operational Risk Index which benchmarks Ghana against its neighbours.

Operational Risk Contents

The chapter provides a summary of the main threats in the country, within:

  • Labour Market Risk (Education; Availability of Labour; and Labour Costs)
  • Logistics Risk (Market Size and Utilities; Quality and Extent of the Transport Governance)
  • Trade and Investment Risk (Economic Openness; Government Intervention; and Legal Risks)
  • Crime and Security Risk (Crime; Terrorism; and Interstate Conflict risks).

The report also drills down in greater depth to address key issues in one of the following segments most critical to the market:

  • Transport network, economic openness, cost and availability of labour, crime risks, bureaucratic environment, market size and utilities, and interstate conflict.
  • Assess your company’s exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using BMI’s insight on the current dangers of operating in the market.
  • Evaluate Ghana’s risk profile against its regional peers, helping you understand the market’s strengths and weaknesses in relation to other countries.

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