Ghana Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Ghana Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views:

  • Economic growth in Ghana in 2016 will improve on last year, but will remain below its 10-year average due to tight monetary and fiscal policy. The tighter reins on the economy will build a solid platform for more sustainable growth from 2017 onwards, when we expect that Ghana will become a regional success story once more.

  • Ghana's delayed 2016 eurobond issuance will make an appearance later in the year, as an integral part of the government's fiscal consolidation programme. The budget deficit will come down this year, but the slump in the oil price will necessitate more borrowing than previously envisaged.

  • Ghana's current account deficit will narrow over the next several years, but will remain wide as the country's primary exports struggle. Low oil prices in particular will weigh on the balance this year.

  • Persistently high inflation and a hawkish tone from the central bank's communiques has led us to the conclusion that Ghana's rate-hiking cycle is not yet over, and that the new central bank governor will continue his predecessor's work. We forecast a further 100 basis points of hikes at the next monetary policy committee meeting.

Key Risks:

  • If the government fails to abide by the IMF's conditionality following the deal finalised in early 2015, investor sentiment will sour severely.

  • The Ghanaian cedi remains vulnerable amid the sizeable current account deficit and could depreciate more swiftly than we anticipate.

  • Mismanagement of oil revenues - perhaps stemming from insufficient institutional capacity - could dent investor perceptions.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Ghana 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources
Nominal GDP, USDbn 35.4 36.2 39.7 46.2
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 4.0 3.4 4.2 6.7
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 17.0 17.7 16.0 13.6
Exchange rate GHS/USD, eop 3.22 3.81 4.23 4.46
Budget balance, % of GDP -6.3 -7.2 -6.4 -5.0
Current account balance, % of GDP -9.4 -8.4 -7.5 -7.0
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
Growth Will Pick Up In 2016
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
9
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
9
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
10
Structural Reforms Will Narrow Budget Deficit
10
Structural Fiscal Position
11
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
12
External Trade And Investment Outlook
13
Current Account Will Be Hit By Oil Price Decline
13
Outlook On External Position
14
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
14
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS IN 2014
15
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS IN 2014
15
Monetary Policy
16
Monetary Policy Normalisation Will Begin In H2
16
Monetary Policy Framework
17
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
19
The Ghanaian Economy To 2025
19
Oil To Boost Growth Over The Long Term
19
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
19
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
21
SWOT Analysis
21
BMI Political Risk Index
21
Domestic Politics
22
2016 Presidential Election Will Be Closely Contested
22
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
22
Long-Term Political Outlook
23
Oil: A Critical Test For The Polity
23
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
27
SWOT Analysis
27
Operational Risk Index
27
Operational Risk
28
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
28
Trade Procedures And Governance
29
TABLE: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA - TRADE PROCEDURES AND GOVERNANCE
30
Vulnerability To Crime
31
TABLE: IMPORT AND EXPORT DOCUMENTS
31
TABLE: TRADE PROCEDURES BREAKDOWN
31
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
35
Global Macro Outlook
35
Downside Risks Gather Momentum
35
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
35
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
36
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
36
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
37
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
39

Assess your risk exposure in Ghana with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Ghana with confidence.

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  • Delivery of the report in print and PDF
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  • The functionality to translate your online report into your choice of 10 languages - Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian and Spanish
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  • Access to our team of leading analysts who will be happy to answer any questions you might have about the data and forecasts included in this report