Ghana Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Ghana Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views:

  • Economic growth in Ghana in 2016 will improve on last year, but will remain below its 10-year average due to tight monetary and fiscal policy. The tighter reins on the economy will build a solid platform for more sustainable growth from 2017 onwards, when we expect that Ghana will become a regional success story once more.

  • Ghana's delayed 2016 eurobond issuance will make an appearance later in the year, as an integral part of the government's fiscal consolidation programme. The budget deficit will come down this year, but the slump in the oil price will necessitate more borrowing than previously envisaged.

  • Ghana's current account deficit will narrow over the next several years, but will remain wide as the country's primary exports struggle. Low oil prices in particular will weigh on the balance this year.

  • Persistently high inflation and a hawkish tone from the central bank's communiques has led us to the conclusion that Ghana's rate-hiking cycle is not yet over, and that the new central bank governor will continue his predecessor's work. We forecast a further 100 basis points of hikes at the next monetary policy committee meeting.

Key Risks:

  • If the government fails to abide by the IMF's conditionality following the deal finalised in early 2015, investor sentiment will sour severely.

  • The Ghanaian cedi remains vulnerable amid the sizeable current account deficit and could depreciate more swiftly than we anticipate.

  • Mismanagement of oil revenues - perhaps stemming from insufficient institutional capacity - could dent investor perceptions.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Ghana 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources
Nominal GDP, USDbn 35.4 36.2 39.7 46.2
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 4.0 3.4 4.2 6.7
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 17.0 17.7 16.0 13.6
Exchange rate GHS/USD, eop 3.22 3.81 4.23 4.46
Budget balance, % of GDP -6.3 -7.2 -6.4 -5.0
Current account balance, % of GDP -9.4 -8.4 -7.5 -7.0
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
Slow Growth In 2016 Setting The Foundations For Economic Revival
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
10
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
10
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
10
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
11
2016 Eurobond Still On The Cards
11
Structural Fiscal Position
12
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
13
External Trade And Investment Outlook
14
Commodity Price Weakness Will Keep Current Account Deficit Wide
14
Outlook On External Position
15
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
15
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS IN 2014
16
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS IN 2014
16
Monetary Policy
17
New BoG Governor Will Maintain Tight Monetary Policy
17
Monetary Policy Framework
18
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
21
The Ghanaian Economy To 2025
21
Oil To Boost Growth Over The Long Term
21
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
21
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
23
SWOT Analysis
23
BMI Political Risk Index
23
Domestic Politics
24
On The Ground: Will Violence Disrupt Upcoming November Elections-
24
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
24
Long-Term Political Outlook
25
Oil: A Critical Test For The Polity
25
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
29
SWOT Analysis
29
Operational Risk Index
29
Operational Risk
30
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
30
Economic Openness
31
TABLE: TOP 5 IMPORT PARTNERS& PRODUCT IMPORTS, 2009- 2013, USDMN
33
TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
34
TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
36
Availability Of Labour
38
TABLE: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA - AVAILABILITY OF LABOUR RISK
39
TABLE: TOP 10 SOURCE COUNTRIES FOR MIGRANT WORKERS
42
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
45
Global Macro Outlook
45
Tentative Stability,But New Risks Emerging
45
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
45
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
46
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
47
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
49

Assess your risk exposure in Ghana with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Ghana with confidence.

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