Ghana Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

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  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Ghana Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views:

  • An uptick in investor sentiment, the launch of the TEN oilfields and the waning of the electricity crisis will lead to an uptick in real GDP growth in Ghana in 2016, following two years of macroeconomic turmoil. We forecast expansion of 4.9% and 5.8% in 2016 and 2017, respectively.

  • The November 2016 presidential and parliamentary elections in Ghana will be closely contested between incumbent John Mahama and primary challenger Nana Akufo-Addo. President Mahama will seek to present himself as strong on corruption and policy failure in the coming months, but cutting the fiscal deficit while retaining support will take careful balancing.

  • The Bank of Ghana's (BoG)'s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) opted to leave its key policy rate unchanged at 26.00% at its January meeting, indicating to us that it has in fact reached the end of its hiking cycle. We now expect that rates will be maintained at current levels through H1 before 100bps of cuts are enacted in the second half of the year, taking the year-end policy rate to 25.00%.

  • The Ghanaian government is implementing some difficult reforms in 2016, which will help it to bring in the budget deficit even while the global price of oil - on which the government is becoming increasingly reliant for revenues - is looking extremely weak. These new tax measures will see the deficit continue to decline over the next several years, so long as the government stands its ground - particularly as the November 2016 presidential elections approach. We forecast the shortfall will be equivalent to 6.4% of GDP in 2016, and 5.2% in 2015.

  • Ghana's current account deficit in 2016 and 2017 will be wider than we had previously anticipated, thanks to a dimmer outlook for the country's primary commodity exports, oil in particular. We forecast that the deficit will stand at 7.2% of GDP in 2016 and 6.7% in 2017, following an estimated 8.4% in 2015. While our expectation of a diminishing shortfall remains, the deficit will not be reduced as quickly as we projected in our last quarterly report. We had expected that the deficit would fall from a projected 8.0% of GDP in 2015 to 6.9% in 2016 and 5.9% in 2017.

Key Risks:

  • If the government fails to abide by the IMF's conditionality following the deal finalised in early 2015, investor sentiment will sour severely.

  • The Ghanaian cedi remains vulnerable amid the sizeable current account deficit and could depreciate more swiftly than we anticipate.

  • Mismanagement of oil revenues - perhaps stemming from insufficient institutional capacity - could dent investor perceptions.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Ghana 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 4.0 3.4 5.2 5.8
Nominal GDP, USDbn 35.4 36.2 39.6 44.7
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 17.0 17.7 13.3 11.3
Exchange rate GHS/USD, eop 3.22 3.81 4.23 4.46
Budget balance, % of GDP -6.3 -7.2 -6.4 -5.2
Current account balance, % of GDP -9.4 -8.4 -7.3 -6.9
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
Growth Will Pick Up In 2016
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
9
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
9
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
10
Structural Reforms Will Narrow Budget Deficit
10
Structural Fiscal Position
11
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
12
External Trade And Investment Outlook
13
Current Account Will Be Hit By Oil Price Decline
13
Outlook On External Position
14
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
14
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS IN 2014
15
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS IN 2014
15
Monetary Policy
16
Monetary Policy Normalisation Will Begin In H2
16
Monetary Policy Framework
17
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
19
The Ghanaian Economy To 2025
19
Oil To Boost Growth Over The Long Term
19
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
19
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
21
SWOT Analysis
21
BMI Political Risk Index
21
Domestic Politics
22
2016 Presidential Election Will Be Closely Contested
22
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
22
Long-Term Political Outlook
23
Oil: A Critical Test For The Polity
23
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
27
SWOT Analysis
27
Operational Risk Index
27
Operational Risk
28
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
28
Trade Procedures And Governance
29
TABLE: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA - TRADE PROCEDURES AND GOVERNANCE
30
Vulnerability To Crime
31
TABLE: IMPORT AND EXPORT DOCUMENTS
31
TABLE: TRADE PROCEDURES BREAKDOWN
31
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
35
Global Macro Outlook
35
Downside Risks Gather Momentum
35
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
35
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
36
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
36
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
37
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
39

Assess your risk exposure in Ghana with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Ghana with confidence.

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  • Delivery of the report in print and PDF
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