Ghana Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

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  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Ghana Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views:

  • The Emergency Credit Facility (ECF) between Ghana and the IMF has been key to the West African country's economic recovery over the past two years, and the outcome of the latest edition in the saga will determine Ghana's real GDP growth rate over the remainder of 2016 and 2017. We currently forecast a 4.1% expansion in 2016 and 6.5% in 2017, marking a moderate downgrade from the 4.2% and 6.7% respectively we anticipated previously. This is predicated on a belief that while payment of the latest tranche of the USD918mn credit facility will be delayed, the IMF will not fail Ghana altogether, which would entail a greater downgrade than that we have enacted.

  • Recent developments in the economy and the power sector have pushed the closely fought presidential race in Ghana in favour of the challenger, Nana Akufo-Addo of the New Patriotic Party (NPP). We do not expect that he will win in the first round, but rather that neither he nor incumbent President John Mahama of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) will secure the 50%-plus-one-vote needed in order to avoid a second-round run-off. A recent online poll by management consultancy Goodman AMC put Akufo-Addo on 49%, with Mahama trailing on 44%. Akufo-Addo will likely attract the remainder of the opposition vote in the second round and take the NPP to power for the first time since 2008.

  • Ghana's budget balance will remain under considerable scrutiny over the next several months as its relationship with the IMF comes under strain. We hold to our view that the country will continue to rein in its budget deficit, even with the upcoming presidential elections. However, we expect that some slippage is inevitable as spending will likely exceed projections and revenues have been constrained by low oil prices through much of the year. Our forecast of a deficit equivalent to 5.4% of GDP will beat the 5.8% originally set in the fiscal consolidation programme, but will fall short of the 5.3% the target was subsequently changed to in light of high public debt levels. The situation will improve still further in 2017 on the back of greater oil exports - we forecast a budget deficit equivalent to 4.9% of GDP in 2017.

Key Risks:

  • If the IMF fails Ghana following parliament passing the Bank of Ghana Act in August - enabling government to borrow from the central bank - investor sentiment will sour severely.

  • The Ghanaian cedi remains vulnerable amid the sizeable current account deficit and could depreciate more swiftly than we anticipate.

  • Mismanagement of oil revenues - perhaps stemming from insufficient institutional capacity - could dent investor perceptions.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Ghana 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014 2015 2016f 2017f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 4.0 3.9 4.1 6.5
Nominal GDP, USDbn 35.2 36.8 42.4 49.1
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 17.0 17.7 15.5 13.2
Exchange rate GHS/USD, eop 3.22 3.81 4.05 4.26
Budget balance, % of GDP -9.4 -6.7 -5.3 -4.9
Current account balance, % of GDP -9.5 -5.4 -6.7 -6.1
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
Slow Growth In 2016 Setting The Foundations For Economic Revival
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
10
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
10
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
10
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
11
2016 Eurobond Still On The Cards
11
Structural Fiscal Position
12
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
13
External Trade And Investment Outlook
14
Commodity Price Weakness Will Keep Current Account Deficit Wide
14
Outlook On External Position
15
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
15
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS IN 2014
16
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS IN 2014
16
Monetary Policy
17
New BoG Governor Will Maintain Tight Monetary Policy
17
Monetary Policy Framework
18
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
21
The Ghanaian Economy To 2025
21
Oil To Boost Growth Over The Long Term
21
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
21
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
23
SWOT Analysis
23
BMI Political Risk Index
23
Domestic Politics
24
On The Ground: Will Violence Disrupt Upcoming November Elections-
24
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
24
Long-Term Political Outlook
25
Oil: A Critical Test For The Polity
25
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
29
SWOT Analysis
29
Operational Risk Index
29
Operational Risk
30
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
30
Economic Openness
31
TABLE: TOP 5 IMPORT PARTNERS& PRODUCT IMPORTS, 2009- 2013, USDMN
33
TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
34
TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
36
Availability Of Labour
38
TABLE: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA - AVAILABILITY OF LABOUR RISK
39
TABLE: TOP 10 SOURCE COUNTRIES FOR MIGRANT WORKERS
42
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
45
Global Macro Outlook
45
Tentative Stability,But New Risks Emerging
45
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
45
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
46
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
47
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
49

Assess your risk exposure in Ghana with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Ghana with confidence.

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